2013 Spring Training

[SoxFanForsyth]

Why would you value a team with the pen vs the team with the starting pitching? Makes little sense since theoretically, your starters should be in the game for twice as long as the relievers

 

First off, there are always a lot more injuries to SP than the bullpen, and the bullpen is relied on every single game. Having guys in that back end who can come in and put out fires is a huge deal.

 

Plus, even though the Yanks have an advantage over the Sox and Rangers in the #1 SP, the #2-5 are pretty comparable, so that wouldn't make as big of a difference as the bullpen, that impacts the game on a nightly basis.

 

And I'm not trying to convince you to agree with me, that's just kind of the way I view things. Injury risk throughout the season and overall impact on every game.

[jacksonianmarch]

First off, there are always a lot more injuries to SP than the bullpen

 

I call serious ******** on that one. Prove it. Lots of pen arms are guys who have shobby injury histories coming out of the rotation.

 

and the bullpen is relied on every single game. Having guys in that back end who can come in and put out fires is a huge deal.

 

I agree there. Having guys who can prevent fires by going 6,7,or 8 innings is more important

 

Plus, even though the Yanks have an advantage over the Sox and Rangers in the #1 SP, the #2-5 are pretty comparable, so that wouldn't make as big of a difference as the bullpen, that impacts the game on a nightly basis.

 

The #2-5 are comparable? On what planet? Kuroda was lights out last yr. Pettitte was solid as well, albeit in his freak injury shortened season. Hughes would have been your best pitcher last yr and he's our #4. And John Lackey coming back is all of a sudden a win in the #5 spot? Or is Doubront your #5, the guy who shows up to camp obese after a middling rookie yr?

 

And I'm not trying to convince you to agree with me, that's just kind of the way I view things. Injury risk throughout the season and overall impact on every game.

 

Pen guys get injured just as much, if not more than starters since their routines are not as scheduled and typically they are players who had issues with durability and health when in the rotation.

[dupree]

I agree that JBJ is better defensively than Ellsbury, but the Sox wouldn't move Ells to LF in his walk year. It would cause a massive backlash.

 

Agreed. I dont think you will see Bradley till after the All Star Break. But if Ellsbury shows a 1st half of the year as like 2011 then i would hope the Sox retain him and go all in on his contract. So many poster are here want to trade or are sure he will walk. But i would like to see an outfield for the future of Ellsbury in LF, Bradley in CF, and Vic in RF. Imagine the speed on defense and what base running ability this team would have. Potential outfield could be filled with 30 to 40 stole bases per player per year.

 

I like the idea of moving Ells to LF. Gomes is signed for two years and i just dont feel that a platoon type player is what is ideal for the Sox. So the Sox will have to go out and aquire a player for LF in the near future via trade or free agency. I just dont see why posters dont believe Ells could be that player. He has had bad years thats a given but we have seen his potential to lite up the stat sheets. I like the ideal of that amount of speed in the outfield in Fenway. Any pop fly would be caught and it would only be base to base becasue line drives hit into the gaps would be tracked down faster so not as many extra bases given out. I think its something the FO needs to look at.

[jacksonianmarch]

The only way the sox retain Ellsbury is if he has another mediocre injury plagued yr. If he goes off and repeats 2011, he will make Hamilton's contract look like pocket change

[SoxFanForsyth]

I call serious ******** on that one. Prove it. Lots of pen arms are guys who have shobby injury histories coming out of the rotation.

 

 

 

I agree there. Having guys who can prevent fires by going 6,7,or 8 innings is more important

 

 

 

The #2-5 are comparable? On what planet? Kuroda was lights out last yr. Pettitte was solid as well, albeit in his freak injury shortened season. Hughes would have been your best pitcher last yr and he's our #4. And John Lackey coming back is all of a sudden a win in the #5 spot? Or is Doubront your #5, the guy who shows up to camp obese after a middling rookie yr?

 

 

 

Pen guys get injured just as much, if not more than starters since their routines are not as scheduled and typically they are players who had issues with durability and health when in the rotation.

 

I should clarify. SP get injured quite frequently. And the effect of those SP is much, much greater on the overall performance of a team than that of a LOOGY or a middle reliever. The fact that the Sox have at least 2-3 guys who can close makes even losing a back end guy fine.

 

You're counting on Pettitte to give you something he hasn't given you since 2009. You say he pitched well last year, but he threw against a bunch of s*** baller teams. He faced:

 

CIN (21st in RS)

CLE (22nd in RS)

KCR (20th in RS)

LAA (Threw 7 IP, 5 ER)

MIN (16th in RS)

NYM (2x) (25th in RS)

SEA (27th in RS)

TB (18th in RS)

TOR (2X) (13th in RS)

WAS (10th in RS)

 

He faced two top 10 offenses, and got plowed by one of them. If you want to count on him, fine, but his line last year was very misleading considering his opposition. Again, he hasn't thrown 130 IP since 2009, and when he did, he had a 4.16 ERA. That's pretty consistent with what Dempster will give you.

 

Kuroda, fine, but Buchholz can be just as effective as Kuroda. In fact, after Buch shook off the rust from behind his ears last year, he and Kuroda basically went tit for tat from May through September (Buch: 3.19 ERA, Kuroda: 3.28 ERA).

 

You talk about Doubront being out of shape, but completely ignore Hughes having a bulging disc. That sounds about right. Plus, Doubront had much better peripherals last year than Hughes.

 

Nova got plowed last year.

 

And the Sox are much better prepared for when the injuries hit.

 

With CC leading the way, the Yankees probably have a better rotation than the Sox. But #2-5 are comparable.

[jacksonianmarch]

I should clarify. SP get injured quite frequently. And the effect of those SP is much, much greater on the overall performance of a team than that of a LOOGY or a middle reliever. The fact that the Sox have at least 2-3 guys who can close makes even losing a back end guy fine.

 

You're counting on Pettitte to give you something he hasn't given you since 2009. You say he pitched well last year, but he threw against a bunch of s*** baller teams. He faced:

 

CIN (21st in RS)

CLE (22nd in RS)

KCR (20th in RS)

LAA (Threw 7 IP, 5 ER)

MIN (16th in RS)

NYM (2x) (25th in RS)

SEA (27th in RS)

TB (18th in RS)

TOR (2X) (13th in RS)

WAS (10th in RS)

 

He faced two top 10 offenses, and got plowed by one of them. If you want to count on him, fine, but his line last year was very misleading considering his opposition. Again, he hasn't thrown 130 IP since 2009, and when he did, he had a 4.16 ERA. That's pretty consistent with what Dempster will give you.

 

Nice selection, lol. Last yr, he broke his ankle on a freak play. That's s*** luck, and he started the yr late. He didnt pitch in 2011, so that really makes your quote sound even better, lol. Pick and choose how you want to, he was highly effective in 12 starts against major league teams, then was highly effective in 2 post season starts, but let's not make any concessions when they might not work for your point, lol. Dempster's only experience in the AL was getting shitstomped in Texas for a half season. But yeah, they're similar, lol

 

Kuroda, fine, but Buchholz can be just as effective as Kuroda. In fact, after Buch shook off the rust from behind his ears last year, he and Kuroda basically went tit for tat from May through September (Buch: 3.19 ERA, Kuroda: 3.28 ERA).

 

Nice selectivity. See, Kuroda did it for a whole season. He didnt completely f***ing implode in April and didnt need a few weeks off due to an esophageal disorder. And Kuroda also gave 219.2IP. Also, dont mention the fact that Kuroda had a much lower walk rate a higher K rate, but yeah, there were "tit for tat". LOL

 

You talk about Doubront being out of shape, but completely ignore Hughes having a bulging disc. That sounds about right. Plus, Doubront had much better peripherals last year than Hughes.

 

I left off the Hughes back issue just like I left out Doubront's barking shoulder and his massive innings jump. And Doubront had better peripherals? On what f***ing planet? He had a higher K rate, congrats. He also had a walk rate that was nearly double and a K/BB that was 1.2 points higher. Better peripherals my ass!

 

Nova got plowed last year.

He had better peripherals than Doubront

 

And the Sox are much better prepared for when the injuries hit.

 

With CC leading the way, the Yankees probably have a better rotation than the Sox. But #2-5 are comparable.

 

That's subjective any way you slice it. And, unless father time hits at the same time as a complete stroke of luck hits the sox end of things, your 2-5 will be markedly worse than ours

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not going to sit and argue with you about this. We obviously differ in our opinion.

 

We'll see at the end of the season.

 

You think the Sox are closer to last year's rotation. I think that's a crazy opinion.

[jung]

Interesting discussion. I went back a couple of pages because I did not want to offer up something without trying to find the posts being referenced.

 

I did not find it but is Jacko saying that he thinks this year's rotation is closer to last year's? There are a good many relative terms being tossed about in this discussion....."closer to"....."comparable with". With that much latitude, you guys might be closer to each other than you think. However if Jacko is saying or implying that this Sox rotation is really as faulty as last year's I would say that is not likely so. By the same token given the number of question marks we have in our rotation it would be hard for me to call them comparable to the Yanks, 2-5.

 

It sounds like all are in agreement that CC has the advantage over Jon. So that one is advantage Yanks. More importantly, there is the possibility that Jon will not better his end season performance from 2012. Now that was not at all bad when compared to where he was earlier in the 2012 campaign. The problem with it is that if in fact he pitches just like that, I think he will have a hard time giving us innings. That was and is a damned difficult way to have to pitch. While we might take a whole season like that from Jon and actually breadth a sigh of relief, if the guy at the top of your rotation is already leaving innings for the bullpen, look out! Pitching like that Jon may not be able to average more than 6 innings per start for the season. That could set up the pen for getting hammered again by the rotation as it has the past two seasons. Suddenly what we have been touting as an advantage turns into another exhausted group of relievers dragging their asses to the finish line.

 

Sure we have multiple solutions for the back end but they don't give you innings. Aceves gives you innings out of the pen. Did that save the pen in 2011....nope. The pen still dragged itself to the finish line and if Aceves had not made a superhuman effort, the end of 2011 would have been an even bigger disaster.

 

If in fact Jon does not give us innings, the burden really shifts to Buch. Buch is yet another question mark in the Sox rotation. Most specifically Buch is a question mark as it relates to durability and the ability to get the job done the entire season...instead of missing chunks of the season or way underperforming for chunks of the season. I have a hard time convincing myself that this is the year that Buch will not be leaving extra innings out there for the bullpen. I have nothing to hang my hat on other than hope in Buch's case.

 

Next up is Dempster. Somebody posted up a scouting report for Dempster here. I have to find that thing again. I repeated parts of it here but I was not the one that found it. It basically surmised that Dempter would do well against the lower tier AL teams and struggle against the upper tier AL teams. I think that could well be accurate. However it also suggests that while he might pitch reasonably well, he might also leave innings for the bullpen.

 

I probably would have had Felix in the 4 hole before he showed up out of shape. At least for the moment I have inserted Lackey in the 4 hole. Here believe it or not, we might have a guy that will churn some innings, at least for a guy pitching out of the 4 hole. I am not at this moment confident that he will pitch well but I believe Lackey will take the ball every time his ticket comes up in the rotation and I believe that he will stay out there grinding away until somebody pulls him off the mound. However what does that mean when you are the 4? Well it means you are likely to average more than 6 innings per start but not by much.

 

Finally we get to Felix. I am truly disappointed in the way he showed up for camp. He was and maybe still is downright portly for a guy his age and with his frame. Now I am stuck questioning his commitment. I don't have a choice. I can't just ignore his continued lapses in this regard. I guess I can but I have no rational for doing so other than outright fandom.

 

So this is my problem. I think there is every chance that this rotation will be a marked improvement over last year's which was led by Mr. All over the Map himself, Beckett. In fact, I really think odds are it will be better. However that may not mean very much in the long run. They may well pitch better as a group but not enough better to keep from leaving a bunch of extra innings out there for the pen. I would not be surprised if the rotation as a group ended up with an average just below 6 innings per start, maybe something like 5-1/3 to 5-2/3 per start and that is a problem. That is OK for some of the guys at the bottom of your rotation but not for the rotation as a whole. The rotation as a whole has to best 6 innings per start....maybe 6-1/3 to 6-2/3 per start. If the rotation can't hit the numbers for innings, the pen may well end up overworked again. Unfortunately when the rotation has that sort of profile, the team ends up hitting two or even worse three periods during the season when your really good pen arms are just tapped out. You can take them to the limit once during the season and you might be able to get away with it. Take them to the limit twice and you are really asking for it. At some point they just don't have more to give you and you are stuck in the same spot we have been in two years running now...an underperforming rotation with a tapped out bullpen. I agree that as good as the Sox pen has been the past couple years, this one is even better. That will not save them if they end up with too many innings to pitch.

 

I really don't think the Yanks rotation has that kind of profile. Injury could change a good deal for both teams but I cannot rate the Sox rotation as comparable to the Yankee rotation.

[SoxSport]

The Yankees are always overrated in the media. First, NY is the sports media center (though Fox sports west is trying to change that). Second, it's a safe bet they will go out and buy what they need to stay competitive. That's the way they have operated for years--despite Cashman's resistance. You wonder about this year, though. Age may be catching up to them. Forget Grandy's injury--he'll be back early May.

That's been overplayed by the media.

 

You turn on MLB TV now during ST--you get the Mets and the Yankees almost every day. TV needs those extra advertising profits that come out of NY.

[Palodios]

Interesting discussion. I went back a couple of pages because I did not want to offer up something without trying to find the posts being referenced.

 

I did not find it but is Jacko saying that he thinks this year's rotation is closer to last year's? There are a good many relative terms being tossed about in this discussion....."closer to"....."comparable with". With that much latitude, you guys might be closer to each other than you think. However if Jacko is saying or implying that this Sox rotation is really as faulty as last year's I would say that is not likely so. By the same token given the number of question marks we have in our rotation it would be hard for me to call them comparable to the Yanks, 2-5.

 

It sounds like all are in agreement that CC has the advantage over Jon. So that one is advantage Yanks. More importantly, there is the possibility that Jon will not better his end season performance from 2012. Now that was not at all bad when compared to where he was earlier in the 2012 campaign. The problem with it is that if in fact he pitches just like that, I think he will have a hard time giving us innings. That was and is a damned difficult way to have to pitch. While we might take a whole season like that from Jon and actually breadth a sigh of relief, if the guy at the top of your rotation is already leaving innings for the bullpen, look out! Pitching like that Jon may not be able to average more than 6 innings per start for the season. That could set up the pen for getting hammered again by the rotation as it has the past two seasons. Suddenly what we have been touting as an advantage turns into another exhausted group of relievers dragging their asses to the finish line.

 

Sure we have multiple solutions for the back end but they don't give you innings. Aceves gives you innings out of the pen. Did that save the pen in 2011....nope. The pen still dragged itself to the finish line and if Aceves had not made a superhuman effort, the end of 2011 would have been an even bigger disaster.

 

If in fact Jon does not give us innings, the burden really shifts to Buch. Buch is yet another question mark in the Sox rotation. Most specifically Buch is a question mark as it relates to durability and the ability to get the job done the entire season...instead of missing chunks of the season or way underperforming for chunks of the season. I have a hard time convincing myself that this is the year that Buch will not be leaving extra innings out there for the bullpen. I have nothing to hang my hat on other than hope in Buch's case.

 

Next up is Dempster. Somebody posted up a scouting report for Dempster here. I have to find that thing again. I repeated parts of it here but I was not the one that found it. It basically surmised that Dempter would do well against the lower tier AL teams and struggle against the upper tier AL teams. I think that could well be accurate. However it also suggests that while he might pitch reasonably well, he might also leave innings for the bullpen.

 

I probably would have had Felix in the 4 hole before he showed up out of shape. At least for the moment I have inserted Lackey in the 4 hole. Here believe it or not, we might have a guy that will churn some innings, at least for a guy pitching out of the 4 hole. I am not at this moment confident that he will pitch well but I believe Lackey will take the ball every time his ticket comes up in the rotation and I believe that he will stay out there grinding away until somebody pulls him off the mound. However what does that mean when you are the 4? Well it means you are likely to average more than 6 innings per start but not by much.

 

Finally we get to Felix. I am truly disappointed in the way he showed up for camp. He was and maybe still is downright portly for a guy his age and with his frame. Now I am stuck questioning his commitment. I don't have a choice. I can't just ignore his continued lapses in this regard. I guess I can but I have no rational for doing so other than outright fandom.

 

So this is my problem. I think there is every chance that this rotation will be a marked improvement over last year's which was led by Mr. All over the Map himself, Beckett. In fact, I really think odds are it will be better. However that may not mean very much in the long run. They may well pitch better as a group but not enough better to keep from leaving a bunch of extra innings out there for the pen. I would not be surprised if the rotation as a group ended up with an average just below 6 innings per start, maybe something like 5-1/3 to 5-2/3 per start and that is a problem. That is OK for some of the guys at the bottom of your rotation but not for the rotation as a whole. The rotation as a whole has to best 6 innings per start....maybe 6-1/3 to 6-2/3 per start. If the rotation can't hit the numbers for innings, the pen may well end up overworked again. Unfortunately when the rotation has that sort of profile, the team ends up hitting two or even worse three periods during the season when your really good pen arms are just tapped out. You can take them to the limit once during the season and you might be able to get away with it. Take them to the limit twice and you are really asking for it. At some point they just don't have more to give you and you are stuck in the same spot we have been in two years running now...an underperforming rotation with a tapped out bullpen. I agree that as good as the Sox pen has been the past couple years, this one is even better. That will not save them if they end up with too many innings to pitch.

 

I really don't think the Yanks rotation has that kind of profile. Injury could change a good deal for both teams but I cannot rate the Sox rotation as comparable to the Yankee rotation.

 

Jung, you have some really great baseball knowledge, and you contribute well here. But please help us all out and clean some of these thesis papers down:lol:

 

But anyway, the big difference is going to come from the back end of the bullpen.

 

Dice-k went 5.38 IP per game from 2009-2012. Brutal. Lackey in Boston in 2010? 6.5 IP per game. If we see 2010 Lackey, we're talking about giving 30 innings back to the bullpen. That's half of a reliever.

[jung]

The argument for a really good back end to the bullpen is an extension of the argument for having a really good closer when you don't have enough "team" to get to the 9th inning with a lead enough times to make it worthwhile.

 

Having really solid guys for innings 7-9 is terrific if you have enough "team" to hold down the opposition in innings 1-6 and enough offense to get to the 7th with a lead. Claiming that the back end of the bullpen "is" going to be the dif is just a pretty weak argument IMO unless you have the offense and the rotation to go with it.

 

I am holding out hope that the rotation works out. Regardless of how slim the chances might be, it still offers more hope than relying on having really good options for innings 7-9.

[mvp 78]

The Yankees are always overrated in the media. First, NY is the sports media center (though Fox sports west is trying to change that). Second, it's a safe bet they will go out and buy what they need to stay competitive. That's the way they have operated for years--despite Cashman's resistance. You wonder about this year, though. Age may be catching up to them. Forget Grandy's injury--he'll be back early May.

That's been overplayed by the media.

 

You turn on MLB TV now during ST--you get the Mets and the Yankees almost every day. TV needs those extra advertising profits that come out of NY.

 

The Yankees have only missed the playoffs once in the last 17 years. They deserve the media hype.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees have only missed the playoffs once in the last 17 years. They deserve the media hype.

 

Yeah, gotta agree. Results are results and those are pretty good ones.

[VA Sox Fan]

The Yankees have only missed the playoffs once in the last 17 years. They deserve the media hype.

 

Yeah, gotta agree. Results are results and those are pretty good ones.

 

As much as I hate the NYY, have to agree with y'all on that.

[BSN07]

And there goes Middlebrooks...

[MANNYHOF24]

Well looks like middlebrooks rebroke his right wrist. Jesus, f*** this.

 

Edit- looks like it was his right wrist, he broke his left wrist last year. Why can't our players ever stay healthy #ihatemylife #anyonewanttobuymytickets, #gobruins

[BSN07]

Well looks like middlebrooks rebroke his right wrist. Jesus, f*** this.

 

He broke his left wrist. Looks like he just injured the right one.

 

Regardless, it did not look good at all.

[Station 13]

He broke his left wrist. Looks like he just injured the right one.

 

Regardless, it did not look good at all.

 

Are you sure? They said it was the same one.

[BSN07]

Are you sure? They said it was the same one.

 

I'm not 100% but I was pretty sure as a RHH he was hit in the left wrist.

 

edit: Yup it was his right wrist. Not good at all. Bogaerts may be getting a shot sooner rather then later.

[dupree]

I'm not 100% but I was pretty sure as a RHH he was hit in the left wrist.

 

edit: Yup it was his right wrist. Not good at all. Bogaerts may be getting a shot sooner rather then later.

 

Lets just hope its not as bad as it seems right now. Hopefully they come back with a negative report of the wrist being broken. And that he only misses a couple of starts not an extended amount of time.

[MANNYHOF24]

I bet we don't see middlebrooks until june

[jung]

I bet we don't see middlebrooks until june

.

 

You could be right about that. The wrist is a tough injury. Not a place where you get much blood flow. Since it is the same wrist they will likely be extra cautious and make sure they get it healed up

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's what Gomes does. Destroys LHP.

[NYlove4BoSox]

The latest is he left the game with "soreness".

[VA Sox Fan]

That's what Gomes does. Destroys LHP.

 

That was sweet.

[VA Sox Fan]

The latest is he left the game with "soreness".

 

Hope that's all it is. It looked worse than that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Right wrist soreness = too swollen to get an X-ray tonight, but will take one tomorrow.

[mvp 78]

Need to move Salty for a 3b or Ciriaco will be the everyday 3b for a while.

[jung]

Oriole hits a dying quail.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I just can't believe that swinging the bat and stopping like that would re break his wrist but at the same time, I can't think of anything else it could/would do.

 

Where is Jacko when you need him.