2013 Spring Training

[User Name]

Well SBF, I kinda' think it would be unrealistic to have expected Ortiz to go for surgery at the end of the 2012 season. He did not have a contract at that point. At his age given the average recovery time, it would be very easy to envision Ortiz unable to sign a next contract on the other side of recovery from surgery. Certainly, two years would have been completely out of the question at that point and he very likely would have been looking at light money even for a one year deal.

 

Now the shoe is on the other foot. While I think it is much easier for Ortiz to accept the idea of surgery at this point if that is what is presented to him, we won't be too happy about seeing Ortiz go off to surgery with his two year deal in hand.

 

While Hamilton would have been a huge gamble and more money, could that have been worse than what the Sox are now facing with Ortiz? While none of us can really know how the Achilles feels to Ortiz, to me he looks like he is moving around about the way he was from the point when he apparently came back too early late last year. That is not much improvement for 6-7 months of "healing". While the healing process is often not serial, it seems like it would take something of a miracle for him to be ready by opening day considering what little progress he has made to date. Comments he made after his last light jog were really discouraging. If anything it looks like as soon as he puts the tiniest bit of pressure or strain on the Achilles he ends up with even more discomfort. That sounds like he is making no progress at all and is in fact going backwards.

 

Would the Sox have taken some hits in the press if they resisted the temptation to sign Ortiz when they did? Maybe. To believe that you have to believe that some other AL team would have signed him for money he would have taken. I don't believe that possible with the open Achilles issue.

 

As it is now, at least for the moment it looks like the Sox really got snookered. If it really does turn out that Ortiz goes to surgery before swinging a bat in anger again, the Sox are going to look incredibly stupid.

 

Hindsight is 20/20. It's easy to perform "expert analysis" and judge after the fact.

[jung]

Hindsight is 20/20. It's easy to perform "expert analysis" and judge after the fact.

 

The point is that there was no clear reason to sign Ortiz when they did. Nobody else was going to sign him under those circumstances. They would have been out of their minds to have done so. Once again, the Sox end up competing with themselves for a ballplayer. The "competition" if there actually was any would have been restricted to AL teams only and even then it is hard to envision any GM with half a brain making a serious run at Ortiz with his bum Achilles still unresolved.

 

Hindsight is not at all in play. Common sense is all that is needed in this case.

 

I don't think there was much discussion of it at the time because there was no clear baseball reason to sign the player. Frankly I think a good many of us were resigned to the Sox signing Ortiz regardless of the Achilles for the usual ******** optics that has so often driven their decision making. Why fight city hall? I did not think there was a snowballs chance in hell that they would pass on Ortiz and they didn't.

[User Name]

What are you even talking about? Did they really have an option? From a PR, money and production expectation standpoint, Ortiz was a need, not a luxury. They expected him to be ready to begin the year or soon after and that timetable hasn't changed. It was the right move even if he suffers a couple of setbacks.

 

You're trying to reinvent the wheel here.

[Station 13]

Middlebrooks stung two ball to dead center and right center, that's most likely are HR in non Fenway dimensions last night. So far I see him hit a lot of ball to the opposite field. Maybe a prep for Opening Day.

[jung]

Oh yea' David sounds like he is right on that timetable.

[User Name]

Any news that put him more than a couple of weeks behind schedule? Last he said was he's been doing everything except the hardest stuff pain-free. Most of the other stuff you read around here is conjecture from people with too much free time and a big imagination.

[mvp 78]

http://weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/03/09/why-dwight-evans-offers-david-ortiz-beacon-hop

[SoxFanForsyth]

Any news that put him more than a couple of weeks behind schedule? Last he said was he's been doing everything except the hardest stuff pain-free. Most of the other stuff you read around here is conjecture from people with too much free time and a big imagination.

 

I did read that Farrell said he would need about 2 weeks to get ramped up for the season. So if he's not taking at bats by the 17th (a week from tomorrow), then I would be concerned about him missing Opening Day.

 

Though I will say that since the Yanks are without Granderson & Tex, I think the Sox, sans Ortiz, can still take 2/3 from them. So I hope they don't rush him back just to get to Opening Day. If he's taking AB's by the 20th or 23rd, and he's back for the Toronto series, it's not going to make much of a difference.

[Bellhorn04]

Ortiz is doing his utmost to get back on the field. It's one of those frustrating injuries that not even the best doctors in the world can predict the recovery time for.

[jung]

If you've spent any amount of time around David Ortiz over the last 10 years, then it quickly becomes clear how much he is struggling with his lingering Achilles' injury.

 

Normally an electric personality whose mere presence instantly changes the tenor of the clubhouse, Ortiz bordered on morose today when discussing his latest attempt to run the bases, a shortened session that left him less encouraged about his recovery than he did just a couple of days ago.

 

Ortiz was asked, if the season started tomorrow, could he play?

 

"No," he said. "Not at all."

 

That is from John Tomasi's Herald piece from Friday.

[User Name]

Tomase's not a doctor and it's obvious that Ortiz is frustrated, but that doesn't mean he'll miss an extended period of time.

 

Also,did you read MVP's link? That article is from today.

[jung]

Dewey Evans is not a doctor either. Ignoring the chances that the lingering nature of the Achilles issue may well mean that when the day comes when he finally does really stress his Achilles it will simply blow up on him is just putting your head in the sand.

 

The dialog has not matched David's ability to stress the Achilles for several months now, suggesting that the lack of any distinguishable progress was not anticipated. Yet the chance of it was always there and that has been my point.

 

Besides, Ortiz lost 25 lbs before the 2012 season to get down to 250. He is 6'4", 250. D. Evans played at 6'2" and 180. Ortiz is carting a hell of a lot more weight around atop that Achilles than Evans ever carried.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree it was a risky signing and I agree it was partially motivated by box office considerations. But that's what major league teams do. The Red Sox risked 26 million. The Angels risked 5 times that much on Josh Hamilton.

[User Name]

I agree it was a risky signing and I agree it was partially motivated by box office considerations. But that's what major league teams do. The Red Sox risked 26 million. The Angels risked 5 times that much on Josh Hamilton.

 

Now THIS is common sense.

[Dojji]

I did read that Farrell said he would need about 2 weeks to get ramped up for the season. So if he's not taking at bats by the 17th (a week from tomorrow), then I would be concerned about him missing Opening Day.

 

Though I will say that since the Yanks are without Granderson & Tex, I think the Sox, sans Ortiz, can still take 2/3 from them. So I hope they don't rush him back just to get to Opening Day. If he's taking AB's by the 20th or 23rd, and he's back for the Toronto series, it's not going to make much of a difference.

 

If he misses a couple weeks at the start of the season I'm not going to sweat it. Historically Ortiz tends not to show up those 2 weeks anyway, in uni or not.

[jung]

I did not claim that the Hamilton deal would not have had it's risks. I simply asking the question. Hamilton had no injuries at the time of his signing and has none today. He does have overarching risk elements beyond injury.

 

The dif between the Hamilton contract and the Ortiz contract is years far more than it is per annum. So it is not quite accurate to say that the Angels risked five times the money. They own the player's rights for three more years than the Sox have on Ortiz.

 

Again, I did not use Hamilton as anything more than a part of the discussion. They might have gone elsewhere with that money passing on both Ortiz and Hamilton and may well have been better served. I stand by my earlier point....if David cannot play, it will be very hard to justify that deal since he is already 37 and the clock is ticking. Ignoring the very real chances that he will not be able to play is simply putting your head in the sand....it was then and it is now.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dewey Evans is not a doctor either. Ignoring the chances that the lingering nature of the Achilles issue may well mean that when the day comes when he finally does really stress his Achilles it will simply blow up on him is just putting your head in the sand.

 

The dialog has not matched David's ability to stress the Achilles for several months now, suggesting that the lack of any distinguishable progress was not anticipated. Yet the chance of it was always there and that has been my point.

 

Besides, Ortiz lost 25 lbs before the 2012 season to get down to 250. He is 6'4", 250. D. Evans played at 6'2" and 180. Ortiz is carting a hell of a lot more weight around atop that Achilles than Evans ever carried.

 

Ortiz has said multiple times that his actual Achilles tendon is completely healed. The soreness associated with it is to be expected.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/25276/ortiz-doc-said-heel-soreness-to-be-expected

 

Ortiz said Sunday when he ran the bases the day before, for only the second time this spring, he felt some stiffness in the tendon.

 

“I got a little worried yesterday,’’ Ortiz said, “and the doctor told me that’s the way it’s going to be at the beginning, because that muscle, that foot, I haven’t been doing strong activity like that. I didn’t run the whole offseason, so they said, ‘You’re just breaking things down [calcification]. That’s why it’s sore, but it will go away.’’

 

Ortiz insists the small tear discovered in the tendon last July has since healed -- he said the latest MRI showed what looked like a “brand-new” Achilles. And he expressed great confidence in physical therapist Dan Dyrek, who is in his first year as the team’s coordinator, sports medicine service.

 

It looks like the risk of actually tearing his Achilles again is consistent with that of anyone else on the team, if his Achilles is completely repaired. I think it's just a matter of breaking down the calcification, which, per wikipedia, "Calcification is the process in which calcium salts build up in soft tissue, causing it to harden.".

 

From what I understand, the more he runs, the more it breaks it down. It's just a process of pain management that occurs while he breaks down the calcification.

 

That's my very limited, very unprofessional understanding of the situation.

 

Whether he makes it for Opening Day or not, who knows. But even if he doesn't make it for OD, I think an early-April return (perhaps 4/7 - 4/10) is extremely reasonable.

[Bellhorn04]

I did not claim that the Hamilton deal would not have had it's risks. I simply asking the question. Hamilton had no injuries at the time of his signing and has none today. He does have overarching risk elements beyond injury.

 

The dif between the Hamilton contract and the Ortiz contract is years far more than it is per annum. So it is not quite accurate to say that the Angels risked five times the money. They own the player's rights for three more years than the Sox have on Ortiz.

 

Again, I did not use Hamilton as anything more than a part of the discussion. They might have gone elsewhere with that money passing on both Ortiz and Hamilton and may well have been better served. I stand by my earlier point....if David cannot play, it will be very hard to justify that deal since he is already 37 and the clock is ticking. Ignoring the very real chances that he will not be able to play is simply putting your head in the sand....it was then and it is now.

 

My point is that many of these contracts are extremely risky. You can't avoid major risk if you're a team like the Sox or the Angels.

 

If Ortiz can play by May and puts up a .900 OPS, the deal looks OK.

 

If is the operative word.

 

I don't think anyone is unaware of the worst case scenario here.

[a700hitter]

Middlebrooks stung two ball to dead center and right center, that's most likely are HR in non Fenway dimensions last night. So far I see him hit a lot of ball to the opposite field. Maybe a prep for Opening Day.

The ball he hit to RF last night would have been way out of Yankee Stadium, and he got it off the end of the bat. If Middlebrooks stays healthy, I think he easily pops out 25 HRs and he will be hitting behind Ortiz if Ortiz get back in the lineup.

[Station 13]

The ball he hit to RF last night would have been way out of Yankee Stadium, and he got it off the end of the bat. If Middlebrooks stays healthy, I think he easily pops out 25 HRs and he will be hitting behind Ortiz if Ortiz get back in the lineup.

 

He most certainly will hit behind Ortiz.

 

So far in ST, he hit around 6-7th in the order. I'm not a fan of Farrel's LRLR lineup.

[SoxSport]

Whatever questions about injuries in the lineup, it still boils down to the starting pitching, which will make or break this team.

 

If Ortiz wants to play, he's going to have to play with pain--which should be managable for a DH. The medical staff said last fall he could have played without further injury risk. But is that true if it's an achilles? I thought originally it was a plantar (arch) problem--which you can play with easily using an orthotic. Plantars hurt for a long time--gradually pain goes away with an orthotic--takes over a year. Are we getting a straight story about what's really wrong with him?

 

Having read about the deal that Hamilton turned down in Texas, I doubt Boston was ever in the mix. All that Fox TV money in LA is very enticing for FAs--and their agents.

[mvp 78]

The ball he hit to RF last night would have been way out of Yankee Stadium, and he got it off the end of the bat. If Middlebrooks stays healthy, I think he easily pops out 25 HRs and he will be hitting behind Ortiz if Ortiz get back in the lineup.

 

He was on pace for 25+ last year. He could be a 30-35 guy. Needs to cut down on the k's though. Right now, he's more of a 6-7 than a 5.

[jung]

I suspect the Sox will want to bat Napoli ahead of WMB.....maybe not.

 

Drew might end up being a real wild card in this Batting Order. If he comes all the way back and gets hot the Sox may have to move some pieces around the lineup to accommodate him. This does not look like the kind of batting order that will have Farrell keeping guys in their spots figuring that they will come around. I suspect he will be inclined to play the hot hands and try to take advantage of guys that are on a decent hitting stretch as opposed to starting the year with a set 1-6 and keeping them there all year.

[a700hitter]

Ortiz has said multiple times that his actual Achilles tendon is completely healed. The soreness associated with it is to be expected.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/25276/ortiz-doc-said-heel-soreness-to-be-expected

 

 

 

 

 

It looks like the risk of actually tearing his Achilles again is consistent with that of anyone else on the team, if his Achilles is completely repaired. I think it's just a matter of breaking down the calcification, which, per wikipedia, "Calcification is the process in which calcium salts build up in soft tissue, causing it to harden.".

 

From what I understand, the more he runs, the more it breaks it down. It's just a process of pain management that occurs while he breaks down the calcification.

 

That's my very limited, very unprofessional understanding of the situation.

 

Whether he makes it for Opening Day or not, who knows. But even if he doesn't make it for OD, I think an early-April return (perhaps 4/7 - 4/10) is extremely reasonable.

If this calcium buildup is what is known as a bone spur, it can be a very chronic condition that will continue to cause pain until surgery is done to remove the spur. If the spur is not removed, it can rupture the tendon. I'll defer to Jacko on these matters.

 

The stupid thing was giving him a 2 year contract before verifying he was healed. It was stupid for a team building perspective and a PR perspective. If they were worried about PR, they could have done what they had done the prior 2 seasons and offered him arbitration for 1 year. No one was going to give him multiple years with a bad wheel. We could have locked him into another year to address the PR aspect. And since he didn't play a full year, his raise in arbitration probably would not have been very large. It was very stupid decision making in every aspectto give him 2 years before he was healed and could run.

[a700hitter]

He was on pace for 25+ last year. He could be a 30-35 guy. Needs to cut down on the k's though. Right now, he's more of a 6-7 than a 5.

It will either be WMB or Napoli hitting behind Ortiz. If WMB, starts out hot, I'd put him in the 4 th slot.

[Palodios]

The stupid thing was giving him a 2 year contract before verifying he was healed.

 

Ortiz has had a history of bitching and whining about his contract. They probably figured that he's the face of the franchise and it wasn't worth arguing about. They were in a hole... they had been very cheap at the deadline by dumping all those contracts, and if they didn't give back to their most iconic fan favorite player, it would have been disastrous to PR.

[a700hitter]

Ortiz has had a history of bitching and whining about his contract. They probably figured that he's the face of the franchise and it wasn't worth arguing about. They were in a hole... they had been very cheap at the deadline by dumping all those contracts, and if they didn't give back to their most iconic fan favorite player, it would have been disastrous to PR.

It was stupid to give 2 years. They had access to his medical records and knew that he wasn't healed. They should have known the recovery period and potential complications. They could have locked him up for 1 year to satisfy the fans. He would have no multiple year takers. He didn't have takers last year when he was healthy. Two years was stupid imprudent use of resources. If he wanted to whine, so be it. He whines all the time anyway.

[Palodios]

It was stupid to give 2 years. They had access to his medical records and knew that he wasn't healed. They should have known the recovery period and potential complications. They could have locked him up for 1 year to satisfy the fans. He would have no multiple year takers. He didn't have takers last year when he was healthy. Two years was stupid imprudent use of resources. If he wanted to whine, so be it. He whines all the time anyway.

 

Generally, when you have a player who was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball in 2012, I think its really pointless to worry about giving him a two year contract.

 

Worst case scenario, the Rangers or Yankees sign him. Best case scenario, they sign him for 1/14, he's pissy about the short term deal, and hurts the clubhouse culture instead of providing the leadership that the team needs.

 

But then what? The team goes into 2014, and they have the same problem they have the last five years. They have no way of replacing his offensive production, or his PR impact. The three killer B's and the Ryans are either still developing in the minors, or struggling with the challenges of facing MLB pitching. The only scenarios where they don't re-sign him in 2014 are if he's completely done, and I don't think that will be the case here.

[ibot2much]

 

Worst case scenario, the Rangers or Yankees sign him. Best case scenario, they sign him for 1/14, he's pissy about the short term deal, and hurts the clubhouse culture instead of providing the leadership that the team needs.

 

Glad to see that somebody else sees that selfishness in him

[Palodios]

Glad to see that somebody else sees that selfishness in him

 

Well, I don't necessarily see it as selfishness. This is a guy who has seen some pretty awful contracts in his day. He's seen Lackey get 80 million, Crawford get 140, Jenks get 12 etc etc etc. Ortiz has been on team friendly contracts for the Red Sox his entire career. When was he going to get his? The 2/25 contract he got from the Red Sox should work to make everyone happy-- hopefully he heals well and hits like he has the last three years.