2013 Red Sox predictions.

[Lucienbel]

I think Dickey will perform better than Dempster for almost equivalent salaries.

 

I'd say there's a very good possibility of this. I think a lot of people are writing him off as just another knuckleballer+going to the AL East= disaster. While he is a knuckleballer, some of Dickey's success is definitely in the fact that he isn't a traditional knuckleballer...he has some decent velocity on his fastball and can throw other off speed pitches decent. At the very least, he's capable of adjusting to hitters (maybe not long term, but in a given game) better than most knuckleballers are. He's got a couple of extra outs if he gets himself in a jam.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd say there's a very good possibility of this. I think a lot of people are writing him off as just another knuckleballer+going to the AL East= disaster. While he is a knuckleballer, some of Dickey's success is definitely in the fact that he isn't a traditional knuckleballer...he has some decent velocity on his fastball and can throw other off speed pitches decent. At the very least, he's capable of adjusting to hitters (maybe not long term, but in a given game) better than most knuckleballers are. He's got a couple of extra outs if he gets himself in a jam.

 

He's a guy who can hit 90 with a heater and throw a knuckler in the low 80s. You typically are supposed to hit a knuckleball as late as possible, but it is harder to do when it is coming in 20mph faster than most knucklers.

[Palodios]

He's a guy who can hit 90 with a heater and throw a knuckler in the low 80s. You typically are supposed to hit a knuckleball as late as possible, but it is harder to do when it is coming in 20mph faster than most knucklers.

 

Does Dickey really throw his knuckler that fast? I was under the impression that the sweet spot for the pitch was in the low 70s because of some crazy aerodynamic physics.

[jacksonianmarch]

He throws his knuckler in the 80s and gets a ton of late, unpredictable movement. He can also locate his in the bottom of the zone which keeps his knuckler in the yard. Remember, he has a different physiology than you and I. He has no UCL and by having no UCL, his mechanics are a little different and the ball comes out at a different angle. It leaves him with a pitch he used to call "The Thing" but is really a modified knuckler. He's finally perfected it

[BSN07]

Ya Dickey is more of a hard throwing knuckler as compared to Wake, who was more of a floater knuckler.

 

I see both Dickey and Dempster being 4.5ish ERA guys who will throw a fair amount of innings if healthy.

[a700hitter]

Does Dickey really throw his knuckler that fast? I was under the impression that the sweet spot for the pitch was in the low 70s because of some crazy aerodynamic physics.

Low to Mid-70's. Wake's fastball topped out at 72-75.

[SoxSport]

You don't figure Dickey to have another CY type season, not in a hitters park in Toronto and the AL East, with the DH.

[seabeachfred]

If Dickey and Johnson have banner years on the mound the Jays could be rough customers indeed, but by the same token we have to pray that Lester and Buchholz pitch up to their capabilities to give us a good one-two punch, otherwise we are just spinning our wheels. For Farrell he has to get his charges to think of the team first, put their personal spites behind them and unite for a common end. Perhaps a good clubhouse and a unified and spirited club could lead to a comeback for the Red Sox.

 

Well, hell, we need to look at every possibility that exists for our team to get back on track. Who the hell wants another 2012?

[wyo-sox]

If Dickey and Johnson have banner years on the mound the Jays could be rough customers indeed, but by the same token we have to pray that Lester and Buchholz pitch up to their capabilities to give us a good one-two punch, otherwise we are just spinning our wheels. For Farrell he has to get his charges to think of the team first, put their personal spites behind them and unite for a common end. Perhaps a good clubhouse and a unified and spirited club could lead to a comeback for the Red Sox.

 

Well, hell, we need to look at every possibility that exists for our team to get back on track. Who the hell wants another 2012?

 

Best post you've had in a while. Well said.

[jung]

Believe it or not, one thing I wish for is that the ballplayers at least just go back to the standard baseball speak platitudes we have grown used to hearing from baseball players.

- Ya' gotta' play em' one game at a time

- I am just here to help the team any way I can

etc.

 

I would prefer that to what I think was Jon Lester's first ST interview of a few days ago. Jon decided to take the opportunity to redefine the definition of the Team Ace to fit his recent history. We argue about the definition all the time here...So what....we are just fans doin' the fan thing. I don't need Lester to rationalize his performance for me or provide me HIS definition tailored to his particular mound attributes from the past few seasons. Worse than that, is Jon redefining expectations for himself in a year when we will need him to do more than just take the ball every 5th day? Is Jon trying to redefine our expectations before a ball has even been thrown in anger this season?

 

Clearly, at least based on the interview, Jon is telling us he does not believe there is a "next level" of performance that he is either capable of reaching or even thinks should be expected of him. Heck he comes right out and says the words in the interview. At the very least the interview dents my hopes that we had seen the last of the whinny, wimpy, fear biting dog side of Jon Lester's mound and dugout persona of recent history.

 

One thing we all agree on is that wins are a very poor arbiter of a pitcher's performance...likely the worst of them. Not in Jon-Jon world. Jon, decided to focus on the number of starts he has made per year and the number of wins per season. Two stats that in Jon's case will leave HOF voters wanting at the end of his career. Most particularly Jon chooses to focus attention on the four 15 win seasons in a row and the short list of ML pitchers that have hit that mark. That said if you asked the others on the list, they would likely not even consider that particular number worthy of mention. Maddox did it for seventeen straight seasons, not four and had 20 game win seasons all along the way. Verlander has done it. Palmer did it. However for all of the others four 15 win seasons is at the bottom of their resume if there at all.

 

Jon has NEVER had an ACE season. He has never had a great season. He has been the consummate rotation #2. In fact, they should simply retire the definition for Jon. Mr. Fan, Ya' wanna' know what you want from your #2 starter or possibly your #3 starter.....see Jon Lester. The problem with that is that Jon has been penciled into the #1 spot since 2010 and could never nudge past the slowly declining Josh Beckett to occupy the spot.

 

None of what Jon has done in the past few seasons qualifies him as an Ace. None of it fills the bill for my expectations of a rotation #1 on a contending team. He has been an innings eater....an absolute horse at least for this team of hospital ward residents. However none of it smacks of greatness. None of it makes me think of Jon in terms of an Ace.

 

Frankly I don't care what Jon says to himself in front of the bathroom mirror. Ya' wanna' run around the house in PJ's with the #1 plastered on the back....go right ahead Jon....knock your mind out. I just don't need to hear it, especially in a year when Jon will have to give us much more this year if this team has any chance to do anything to nudge itself out of the basement of the AL East. I don't need Jon telling me I should not expect better from him. I have to expect better from him! Shut up and pitch Jon.

[Bellhorn04]

Jon has NEVER had an ACE season. He has never had a great season. He has been the consummate rotation #2. In fact, they should simply retire the definition for Jon. Mr. Fan, Ya' wanna' know what you want from your #2 starter or possibly your #3 starter.....see Jon Lester. The problem with that is that Jon has been penciled into the #1 spot since 2010 and could never nudge past the slowly declining Josh Beckett to occupy the spot.

 

None of what Jon has done in the past few seasons qualifies him as an Ace. None of it fills the bill for my expectations of a rotation #1 on a contending team. He has been an innings eater....an absolute horse at least for this team of hospital ward residents. However none of it smacks of greatness. None of it makes me think of Jon in terms of an Ace.

 

I'd say that for the years 2008-2011 Lester was a 'near-ace' though I would agree he was never a true 'ace' as people seem to define that term. For an AL East pitcher to put up 4 consecutive seasons of around 200 innings a year and to never have an ERA above 3.47 is outstanding. Very few teams in baseball had a '#2 starter' over that period who was better than Lester.

 

As for the shut up and pitch part, yes I agree.

[jung]

I agree completely Bell. That is exactly how I would describe Lester. The problem with those comments from Lester is that:

1. He bristles at the notion that he is not in the same discussion with Sabathia and Verlander for example. Well they put up much better numbers Jon...

2. The idea that "we" should be satisfied, that Jon himself believes and is willing to say that we have seen the best he has to offer is just truly worrisome and suggests that he has not learned....that we will not likely see the Lester we saw at the end of the season but may very likely be the same whinny Lester we have seen more of lately.

 

The other thing that really bothers me is that so far while it is a small sampling, none of the comments being made by players offer much encouragement. Lackey's initial comments have been disconcerting and smacks of last year as do the comments from Lester. Great that they are down there. Why are they setting the bar so low for themselves? Why are they already sounding whinny. Heck they not only have their excuses lined up and ready....they are already layin' them on us. Better to say nothing than to already be banging us with all the reasons why....why what??? They have not thrown a single ball in anger yet! They sound like the season is 3/4 done, they are already out of the running and they are telling us why it is not their fault.

 

I wonder how thrilled Mr. Farrell is with this stuff? He likely has better things to do than concern himself at this stage with what these guys are saying. However, I suspect he would prefer that his pitchers say nothing as opposed to making comments like this. So much for the members of team having an improved attitude ala' some level of optimism vis-a-vis Mr. Farrell.

[Palodios]

Jon has NEVER had an ACE season. He has never had a great season.

 

Jung, you really need to clean up your posts. I'd love to have a discussion with you, but there's no way I'm going to read the whole thing.

 

But either way, your main point is simply wrong. Just because Lester never had a Cy Young season doesn't mean he hasn't pitched like an ace. Here are 2008-2011 numbers from the best pitchers in the AL.

 

 

Pitcher A: 3.33 ERA, 65 wins, 813 IP, ERA+ 135

Pitcher B: 3.37 ERA, 55 wins, 823 IP, ERA+ 126

Pitcher C: 3.45 ERA, 72 wins, 916 IP, ERA+ 125

Pitcher D: 3.05 ERA, 76 wins, 958 IP, ERA+ 143

Pitcher E: 3.35 ERA, 58 wins, 847 IP, ERA+ 125

Pitcher F: 3.86 ERA, 54 wins, 887 IP, ERA+ 106

Pitcher G: 3.38 ERA, (short seasons), ERA+ 117

 

A: Lester, B: Greinke, C: Verlander D: Sabathia, E:Weaver, F:Shields, G: Price. Some of those guys have better innings, but the reality is that Lester has pitched as well as any of them.

[jung]

There is a huge disparity in the body of work for those mentioned pitchers. Lester can be in a discussion that includes Grienke or Shields. The rest of the pitchers on that list have far more impressive bodies of work than Grienke, Shields or Lester. In fact I have no problem with those three pitchers being bunched together. But that makes my point. Grienke and Shields do not belong in a discussion that includes Verlander, Weaver, Sabathia or even Price.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of Lester's other comments from that interview with Rob Bradford are more encouraging with regard to his attitude.

 

"It took me a couple of weeks to filter through everything. I think you could really throw any and every one of those words into my offseason and into spring training and into my season. I've never been on this side. I've never had to prove myself. I'm using that as motivation and go out and prove to myself I am who I am.

 

I think you could really honestly put any one of those words: driven, motivated, pissed off, ready to go, whatever you want -- in front of my name and that will describe how I'm feeling. I'm ready to get the season going and go back out there and prove those first four or five years of my career weren't flukes."

[Palodios]

There is a huge disparity in the body of work for those mentioned pitchers. Lester can be in a discussion that includes Grienke and Shields. The rest of the pitchers on that list have far more impressive bodies of work than Grienke, Shields and Lester. In fact I have no problem with those three pitchers being bunched together. But that makes my point. Grienke and Shields do not belong in a discussion that includes Verlander, Weaver, Sabathia or even Price.

 

Ridiculous. I've literally just shown that Lester has been in the same class as all of them.

 

Don't ignore the ERA+ numbers, and assume that pitching in Los Angelos or Tampa is the same as pitching in Boston.

[VA Sox Fan]

Some of Lester's other comments from that interview with Rob Bradford are more encouraging with regard to his attitude.

 

"It took me a couple of weeks to filter through everything. I think you could really throw any and every one of those words into my offseason and into spring training and into my season. I've never been on this side. I've never had to prove myself. I'm using that as motivation and go out and prove to myself I am who I am.

 

I think you could really honestly put any one of those words: driven, motivated, pissed off, ready to go, whatever you want -- in front of my name and that will describe how I'm feeling. I'm ready to get the season going and go back out there and prove those first four or five years of my career weren't flukes."

 

Thanks Bellhorn. I had no idea what interview jung was referring to. I don't get the Lester hate. If he refused to give interviews, he'd be a jerk, when he does do an interview he gets ripped for his words. I just think it's too early to deduce anything about this upcoming season and how anyone is going to perform. Especially based on an interview.

[jung]

For those three years Pal..... for three years. If you want to decide that you can take a three year span like that and suddenly bunch all the pitchers with similar stats over that three year span together. Go ahead...do as you please Pal. The bodies of work for those seven pitchers distinctly and to me clearly results in two groups, not one and I prefer to look at the body of work.

 

Lester had a shot to be in a discussion that includes Verlander, Sabathia, Weaver and Price and he will likely have it again. He will need to have outstanding seasons 2013-2014 to be in that discussion. 2013-2014 would have to turn out to be the best seasons of his career.

 

Heck Lester has work to do just to polish the tarnish off his own reputation...never mind anointing him at this point as a pitcher that you can group with Sabathia, Verlander, Weaver and Price.

[Palodios]

For those three years Pal..... for three years. If you want to decide that you can take a three year span like that and suddenly bunch all the pitchers with similar stats over that three year span together. Go ahead...do as you please Pal. The bodies of work for those seven pitchers distinctly and to me clearly results in two groups, not one and I prefer to look at the body of work.

 

2008, 2009, 2010, 2011. Four years, not three. The sample size isn't arbitrary in any way whatsoever-- I'm essentially taking Lester's entire career and comparing him to other pitchers.

[a700hitter]

Lester needs to find the 3 inches of movement that he lost on his cutter over the last couple of seasons. If he can do that, he'll be 2010 Lester. I don't know how easy that will be to do.

[redsoxfan3]

Honestly, who cares what someone says in an interview? People always talk out of their ass. Bust your ass in Spring Training and pitch well on the field. That is all that I am worried about. Let's get rid of the drama, have a smooth year, and work hard.

[jung]

Sorry read a 9 where there is an 8.

 

But how is that a career? I think the decision to avoid 2012 is fairly arbitrary. Certainly I would agree that Lester's 2006 and 2007 seasons don't count for anything. I know it is pretty popular to take Jon's 2012 and call it an outlier. However if you take 2008-2012 as his career, you are taking 20% of his total career and calling it an outlier. That is a bit more forgiving than I would be when we are discussing inserting Lester into a discussion that includes Verlander and Sabathia. Even Weaver provides you seven years of business to compare.

 

Price does not give you much in terms of length of service but when you look at Price and Lester, their terms of service are similar. However, the only way you can discuss the two of them as comparable is by conveniently leaving out Lester's 2012. If Jon had a typical Lester year in 2012 as opposed to a disaster, you still could not discuss Lester and Price in the same breadth...not for my money. Price has just been that much better when you include their full bodies of work over what is admittedly a short time frame.

 

This s*** goes on constantly here. This guy is comparable to that guy on the third Wednesday of the second month of the season. It just goes on and on. Do what you gotta' do I guess. I already told you my opinion. If you think Lester deserves to be included in a discussion that includes Weaver, Price, Verlander and Sabathia....knock your mind out. I don't see it. Weaver, Sabathia and Verlander have been putting up numbers long enough for me to believe that including Lester in a discussion with those guys is frankly an insult to them. Price is certainly close to Lester in terms of length of service but there, you have to conveniently leave out Jon's 2012 to discuss Lester and Price in the same breadth.

 

However as mentioned earlier, I am quite happy to see Jon grouped with Grienke and Shields for whatever that is worth.

[Thunder]

I don't want to make predictions, but overall I think the Red Sox will win 90 games, Hanrahan will lead the league in saves, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks will put up great numbers, Napoli close behind, Lester, Buchholz and Doubront will be the aces of the staff.

 

Projected AL East Standings:

Orioles 92-70

Red Sox 90-72

Yankees 86-76

Blue Jays 81-81

Rays 72-90

 

AL Central and West will be weaker with only Guardians, Tigers and Angels and A's, and maybe Rangers competing in those divisions.

[Palodios]

Price does not give you much in terms of length of service but when you look at Price and Lester, their terms of service are similar. However, the only way you can discuss the two of them as comparable is by conveniently leaving out Lester's 2012. If Jon had a typical Lester year in 2012 as opposed to a disaster, you still could not discuss Lester and Price in the same breadth...not for my money. Price has just been that much better when you include their full bodies of work over what is admittedly a short time frame.

 

Price is only an elite pitcher because he pitches at the trop. Look at his career home/away splits-- Home-- 2.61. Away -- 3.72. If Lester pitched at the trop with elite defense behind him, he'd be an even better pitcher, including 2012.

 

 

This s*** goes on constantly here. This guy is comparable to that guy on the third Wednesday of the second month of the season.

 

A 4 year sample size is not arbitrary. I responded to your point of Lester never having an ace-like seasons. For those four years, he was just as good as those other pitchers.

 

[/discussion]

[seabeachfred]

Best post you've had in a while. Well said.

 

Wyo--Glad you liked what I said but I almost wish I didn't say it since it might have jinxed the team. Hear about Buchholz pulling a hammy covering first base on a play today? The hits just can't stop coming for us. We need a healthy team for a change. I just hope the conditioning and medical staff is up to the task this season. For he last four years we've been a MAH unit. Still, it always pays to look ahead for some upbeat signs. Hopefully Buchholz isn't made of glass and will be back soon.

[jung]

Of the four of them (Sabathia, Verlander, Weaver and Price) Price makes the weakest argument for himself...which is why I have been close to dropping him off the back of the wagon in this discussion myself as opposed to clearly keeping him with Sabathia, Verlander and Weaver.

[SoxSport]

Anything's possible, but I don't see 90 wins this year as realistic for this team. There are too many things that have to go right, and that hasn't happened for awhile in Boston. I see Buchholz has managed to strain his hammy already. Not doing his stretching exercises? Time to trade that guy while they can.

Not durable.

[wyo-sox]

Wyo--Glad you liked what I said but I almost wish I didn't say it since it might have jinxed the team. Hear about Buchholz pulling a hammy covering first base on a play today? The hits just can't stop coming for us. We need a healthy team for a change. I just hope the conditioning and medical staff is up to the task this season. For he last four years we've been a MAH unit. Still, it always pays to look ahead for some upbeat signs. Hopefully Buchholz isn't made of glass and will be back soon.

 

I did see he hurt himself hope it's nothing,but good grief!

[mvp 78]

Jung, you really need to clean up your posts. I'd love to have a discussion with you, but there's no way I'm going to read the whole thing.

 

But either way, your main point is simply wrong. Just because Lester never had a Cy Young season doesn't mean he hasn't pitched like an ace. Here are 2008-2011 numbers from the best pitchers in the AL.

 

 

Pitcher A: 3.33 ERA, 65 wins, 813 IP, ERA+ 135

Pitcher B: 3.37 ERA, 55 wins, 823 IP, ERA+ 126

Pitcher C: 3.45 ERA, 72 wins, 916 IP, ERA+ 125

Pitcher D: 3.05 ERA, 76 wins, 958 IP, ERA+ 143

Pitcher E: 3.35 ERA, 58 wins, 847 IP, ERA+ 125

Pitcher F: 3.86 ERA, 54 wins, 887 IP, ERA+ 106

Pitcher G: 3.38 ERA, (short seasons), ERA+ 117

 

A: Lester, B: Greinke, C: Verlander D: Sabathia, E:Weaver, F:Shields, G: Price. Some of those guys have better innings, but the reality is that Lester has pitched as well as any of them.

 

Why not include Lester's 2012 stats. Did last year not count? So you include other pitcher's bad years, but not Lester's? Horrible analysis.

 

And wins are a stupid measure.

[mvp 78]

2008, 2009, 2010, 2011. Four years, not three. The sample size isn't arbitrary in any way whatsoever-- I'm essentially taking Lester's entire career and comparing him to other pitchers.

 

When you ignore his most recent year, it's dumb and arbitrary.