2013 Red Sox predictions.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yep. And the same guy who posted a 5 ERA for the Rangers in his first AL stint.

 

Part of the pessimism is the bad history of lifelong NL pitchers coming to the AL.

 

Well he did post a 3.85 xFIP and a 4.06 FIP after the trade to Texas. Plus he posted a 9.1 K/9 after the trade, and only a 3.3 BB/9, so he had solid peripherals.

 

Plus, lifelong NL'ers have had much better success going to the AL East lately. Just look at last year - Kuroda had a 3.32 ERA, Hammel had a 3.43 ERA. Maybe it's because the offensive numbers weren't as good last year in the AL East as usual, but looking forward, I certainly don't think that will change much, especially not from the Red Sox pitching perspective.

[Bellhorn04]

Well he did post a 3.85 xFIP and a 4.06 FIP after the trade to Texas. Plus he posted a 9.1 K/9 after the trade, and only a 3.3 BB/9, so he had solid peripherals.

 

Plus, lifelong NL'ers have had much better success going to the AL East lately. Just look at last year - Kuroda had a 3.32 ERA, Hammel had a 3.43 ERA. Maybe it's because the offensive numbers weren't as good last year in the AL East as usual, but looking forward, I certainly don't think that will change much, especially not from the Red Sox pitching perspective.

 

Good points.

[Spitball]

Dempster's age worries me, but I like the signing. He is a real bulldog.

 

Last season his average fastball was down to 89.7 mph, but his percent of swings and misses went up. He is a smart, gutsy pitcher who has learned to pitch effectively even as his velocity has started to diminish. He keeps ahead of batters and uses his slider and split-finger to put them away.

 

I don't think he will be number one guy, but I do believe he improves the middle of the roation.

[jung]

I don't think he will be number one guy, but I do believe he improves the middle of the roation.

 

I actually wonder about that. I don't think there is a doubt in my mind about Dempster being better than Frankie. But is he better than Buch, who was in the middle last year? I sure hope not. Buch better be better than Dempster. Is he better than Felix? I think we would hope that Felix is on a path to be slightly better than Dempster this year. Is he better than Lackey? As much as I would hope Buch is better than Ryan, I don't know what to hope here. I would think that Lackey being better then Ryan would be a good thing.

 

I do think he is an improvement when you consider that Frankie would likely be the 5 were it not for Ryan.

[a700hitter]

Last season his average fastball was down to 89.7 mph, but his percent of swings and misses went up.

Wow, he lost almost a mph since this morning. This guy is on a fast decline.

 

[Spitball]

Wow, he lost almost a mph since this morning. This guy is on a fast decline.

 

 

I believe the earlier post was his average on his four seam fastball. I also believe that site uses an adjusted formula at 55 feet.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hey MVP, you'll like this -

 

@brianmacp: Asked to name an off-the-radar player who could help the Red Sox, John Farrell made a point of bringing up knuckleballer Steven Wright.

[mvp 78]

Kill me now. Get it over with.

 

I follow him on twitter. He doesn't know who Wally is. He just calls him the monster.

[a700hitter]

I believe the earlier post was his average on his four seam fastball. I also believe that site uses an adjusted formula at 55 feet.

I believe it was a joke.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Kill me now. Get it over with.

 

I follow him on twitter. He doesn't know who Wally is. He just calls him the monster.

 

Huh? I wasn't rubbing your face in it, just thought it was funny because we just had a little debate over it.

 

He (Farrell) mentioned it during the Hot Stove show on WEEI tonight.

[mvp 78]

Huh? I wasn't rubbing your face in it, just thought it was funny because we just had a little debate over it.

 

He (Farrell) mentioned it during the Hot Stove show on WEEI tonight.

 

Didn't say you were. I just think if Wright is pitching, so much has gone wrong that it'll be another lousy summer.

[Spitball]

Didn't say you were. I just think if Wright is pitching, so much has gone wrong that it'll be another lousy summer.

 

I agree, but you never know about knuckleballers. Wakefield's signing back in 1995 went way under the radar.

 

Look at R.A. Dickey's transaction record prior to signing with the Mets and then the subsequent trade to the Jays:

 

June 3, 1993: Drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 10th round of the 1993 amateur draft, but did not sign.

June 4, 1996: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 1st round (18th pick) of the 1996 amateur draft. Player signed September 12, 1996.

October 11, 2006: Granted Free Agency.

January 10, 2007: Signed as a Free Agent with the Milwaukee Brewers.

October 29, 2007: Granted Free Agency.

November 29, 2007: Signed as a Free Agent with the Minnesota Twins.

December 6, 2007: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners from the Minnesota Twins in the 2007 rule 5 draft.

March 29, 2008: Returned (earlier draft pick) by the Seattle Mariners to the Minnesota Twins.

March 29, 2008: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the Seattle Mariners for Jair Fernandez (minors).

December 9, 2008: Granted Free Agency.

December 26, 2008: Signed as a Free Agent with the Minnesota Twins.

October 6, 2009: Granted Free Agency.

December 21, 2009: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Mets.

December 17, 2012: Traded by the New York Mets with Mike Nickeas and Josh Thole to the Toronto Blue Jays for Noah Syndergaard (minors), Travis d'Arnaud (minors), Wuilmer Becerra (minors) and John Buck.

 

Who knew???

[mvp 78]

Great, so we can keep him around for 5-6 years until he becomes serviceable? Fantastic.

[Spitball]

Great, so we can keep him around for 5-6 years until he becomes serviceable? Fantastic.

 

Well, negativity always plays well...but there isn't always a five-six year waiting period.

 

Tim Wakefield

April 20, 1995: Released by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

April 26, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

 

Charlie Hough

July 11, 1980: Purchased by the Texas Rangers from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

Joe Niekro, Wilbur Wood, along with most other knuckleballers were late developers. If Farrell (who knows more about pitching than anyone on this board) brings him up, I am more interested than I am with any poster's negativity...and I am not taking shots at you.

[seabeachfred]

All of my ambivalence about Lester as a #1 aside, Lester is the opening day starter for this team. The very season hinges in large part on what Lester and Buch do not on what Dempster does. Whatever anybody thinks of the Sox chances this year, they are going to have to climb on Lester and Buch's backs. The Sox will go as far as they take them.

 

If Dempster is the opening day pitcher what the hell kind of a message is that to send the team. Climb on Dempster back!!!....you can't be serious.

 

In fact it would not surprise me one bit if Farrell put it to both of those guys just that way cause treating them with kid gloves at this point makes no sense. They are pros. They are experienced. It is time for somebody to say to those two guys that they have got to take the weight. If they crumble, they crumble. But with all due respect to both of them....this is their time. No hiding under Beckett's skirts this time around. In fact I would think it would be a tremendous boost to both of them if Farrell, a guy they both have great respect for took them aside and said, "Boys you have got to take me home." Either they will respond or they will fold like a couple of cheap suits. I don't think there will be a middle ground if Farrell sets that sort of tone with them.

 

EFEN brilliant Jung----remind me if I ever diss you. You earned my deep respect with that one. Best post I've read this month.

[seabeachfred]

I am not going to jump on SFF, who is a nice guy, but I will jump all over the FO. Last year, they had an obvious need for 2 starting pitchers. They did nothing, made Bard a starter picked up some guys off the scrap heap for minor league contracts and crossed their fingers. Those who defended the FO reasoned that getting rid of Wakefield and Lackey was addition by subtraction and that our pitching couldn't get worse than 2011. That argument was made all over the pages of this forum. Alas, things got much worse. Even as things imploded and we were subjected to the torture of 2012, people pointed out that they had no payroll flexibility as they were already over the 8:14:52 AM cap.

 

They purged themselves of a ton of payroll in August and they had a ton of payroll flexibility going into the off season. I thought surely they would strengthen their pitching. Tomorrow is February 1st and all we have added is a soft throwing Dumpster who was mediocre in his NL career. Are you kidding me? This is way below any reasonable expectations. I am not interested in hearing the excuses that no real aces were available or that the market was over priced an yada yada yada ******** excuses. As usual, a long list of starting pitchers changes laundry in the off season, and many will be very productive for their new teams. Even a team like the Mets, with little prospect for success in the NL East and an austerity payroll landed Marcum who many of us wanted. The O's got Jurjens for $1 million. These guys would have helped us. Pitchers were available. We had the money and we did nothing. What about trades? People criticize the Blue Jays, but are you kidding me? If we added Dickey, Buehrle and Josh Johnson to our staff, we would all be tickled pink. On the offensive side of the ball, they added Reyes and Melky. We got their loser manager. WTF!

 

Those same people who said that losing Lackey and Wakefield after 2011 was addition by subtraction are now trying to sell me on the return of Lackey being a good thing. He's in great condition. He's going to be the Lackey who pitched for the Angels etc. Etc. Make up your minds. Is having Lackey a good thing or is losing him a good thing. Talk about a severe flip flop. To sum up, our starting pitching has little hope of being productive. We have to get rid of Salty. That should help. The strengthened bullpen should be able to salvage some games in the early part of the season before they get worn out, and we have to hope that all of our starting pitchers are juicing HGH so they can stay healthy. Those are our chances.

 

You see Ted, your post is exactly what the front office supporters and polluyannas don't want to hear. There was pitching available this winter and all we got was Dempster, who y ou refer to as Dumpster and maybe that's the way I'll be referring to him by if he pitches like you think he will. I do take a more optimistic position. I really think that if Lester and Buchholz stay focused and healthy we will have two pretty solid pitchers, and, laugh if you will, I think Lackey is going to be a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox this season. I remember when I predicted a real comeback year for Beckett in 2009 I literally got laughed off the Sawxheads board, so I will risk it here with Lackey.

 

Look, honest posters will see that Cherington and the front office once again dropped the ball in the pitching department this winter and now we have to hope that what we have will be enough for the team to make an impressive comeback. You and I and those in the know fully understand it will all come down to starting pitching---though I might add if would be nice to have a good LH hitter to platoon in LF with Gomes and not have to stomach looking at Nava and Sweeney this season.

[Behindenemylines]

Didn't say you were. I just think if Wright is pitching, so much has gone wrong that it'll be another lousy summer.

 

I agree! I loved what Wakefield did for the Sox, but I was never confident on what was going on when he was pitching. With a knuckle ball pitcher things can go bad quickly. Now Wright is suppose to throw a harder knuckle ball like Dickey, and you never know. There are so few of them that they give hitters a hard time. With that said if Wright is pitching big innings in 2013 then a lot went wrong for the Sox.

[dupree]

I agree! I loved what Wakefield did for the Sox, but I was never confident on what was going on when he was pitching. With a knuckle ball pitcher things can go bad quickly. Now Wright is suppose to throw a harder knuckle ball like Dickey, and you never know. There are so few of them that they give hitters a hard time. With that said if Wright is pitching big innings in 2013 then a lot went wrong for the Sox.

 

Agreed. I respect what Wake done but i was scared that at any point he could get lite up. Never a fan of a knuckleball pitcher. I think the Blue Jays will regret trading for dickey and hoping he will be a #1 but their dumb move is our gain. I see him getting hammered all year which will be great. I just dont think the knuckleball is gonna fool AL hitters all year. If he wins 6 games this year i will be surprised. I have no statistical analysis to support my theory. But thats just my gut feeling.

[Lucienbel]

Dickey may/may not have a hard time in the AL. He's definitely at more of a disadvantage with the small ball parks in the AL East, and he's definitely at a disadvantage because these guys have seen the knuckleball a lot for pretty much as long as they've been in the league, minus last year. With that said, Dickey looks a lot different out on the mound than Wakefield and I'd give him a better chance of success than Wakefield have. It'll be interesting to see how quickly age starts effecting his fastball and if those smaller ball parks will change his approach at all though.

 

As for Wright, I'd agree that we don't really want to see the scenario that would bring him up. Granted, at a glance his 2012 numbers were rather solid, especially with all that moving around (though maybe that helped him ). He's an interesting thought, but I'm not really sure he'd be the kind of guy this team wants to go with in the future.

 

 

Look, honest posters will see that Cherington and the front office once again dropped the ball in the pitching department this winter and now we have to hope that what we have will be enough for the team to make an impressive comeback. You and I and those in the know fully understand it will all come down to starting pitching---though I might add if would be nice to have a good LH hitter to platoon in LF with Gomes and not have to stomach looking at Nava and Sweeney this season.

 

They definitely did screw up with the starting pitching, and as it's been said before this isn't the first off season they screwed up on that either. Last year it was the same exact way. While their weren't a whole lot of great pitching choices on the market this year, it would have been nice to see them go with guys like Jurrjens, Marcum, or some other depth options. Jurrjens and Marcum are two guys that have a lot of upside that could have been had pretty cheap.

 

As for LF, I laughed when they signed Sweeney again. I understand Kalish went down, and with poor timing toward the back end of the Winter too, but Sweeney? The kid lacks ability in the first place, and he broke his hand punching a locker. It's one thing to punch something because your playing bad and you're upset, it's entirely another to break your hand while doing it so you can't play at all. While I don't think Nava is really the solution we need to platoon with Gomes, I still personally would take Nava over Sweeney any day.

[seabeachfred]

Dickey may/may not have a hard time in the AL. He's definitely at more of a disadvantage with the small ball parks in the AL East, and he's definitely at a disadvantage because these guys have seen the knuckleball a lot for pretty much as long as they've been in the league, minus last year. With that said, Dickey looks a lot different out on the mound than Wakefield and I'd give him a better chance of success than Wakefield have. It'll be interesting to see how quickly age starts effecting his fastball and if those smaller ball parks will change his approach at all though.

 

As for Wright, I'd agree that we don't really want to see the scenario that would bring him up. Granted, at a glance his 2012 numbers were rather solid, especially with all that moving around (though maybe that helped him ). He's an interesting thought, but I'm not really sure he'd be the kind of guy this team wants to go with in the future.

 

 

 

 

They definitely did screw up with the starting pitching, and as it's been said before this isn't the first off season they screwed up on that either. Last year it was the same exact way. While their weren't a whole lot of great pitching choices on the market this year, it would have been nice to see them go with guys like Jurrjens, Marcum, or some other depth options. Jurrjens and Marcum are two guys that have a lot of upside that could have been had pretty cheap.

 

As for LF, I laughed when they signed Sweeney again. I understand Kalish went down, and with poor timing toward the back end of the Winter too, but Sweeney? The kid lacks ability in the first place, and he broke his hand punching a locker. It's one thing to punch something because your playing bad and you're upset, it's entirely another to break your hand while doing it so you can't play at all. While I don't think Nava is really the solution we need to platoon with Gomes, I still personally would take Nava over Sweeney any day.

 

The script is already being written. Nava will get off to a decent start and the pollyannas and ball washers will wax poetic, but most of us will know from the get-go that after a month Nava will show that he is just what he is----a second rater who has no business being a starting outfielder for a serious Major League club. As for Sweeney, the less said the better Luc. We need someone better out there to platoon with Gomes but apparently Cherington continues to drop the ball and pretend black is white.

[mvp 78]

Nava will get off to a decent start and the pollyannas and ball washers will wax poetic.

 

Tough talk from a guy who has only been a fan of the Sox for just over a decade. Some of these so called pollyannas and ballwashers have actually been fans their whole lives. You just got to pick and choose what team you wanted to follow, which coincidentally happened after Pedro's amazing 99 season. Give it a rest johnny come lately.

 

Maybe the Sox will suck again this year and you'll become a Rangers fan after falling in love with their stadium.

[a700hitter]

Tough talk from a guy who has only been a fan of the Sox for just over a decade. Some of these so called pollyannas and ballwashers have actually been fans their whole lives. You just got to pick and choose what team you wanted to follow, which coincidentally happened after Pedro's amazing 99 season. Give it a rest johnny come lately.

 

Maybe the Sox will suck again this year and you'll become a Rangers fan after falling in love with their stadium.

^MVP pushing all the hot buttons trying to bait SBF. Fred, resist this sophomoric and transparent attempt at baiting you in hopes of getting you banned.

[mvp 78]

^MVP pushing all the hot buttons trying to bait SBF. Fred, resist this sophomoric and transparent attempt at baiting you in hopes of getting you banned.

 

Fred and I had a deal. I'd never call him out if he stopped refering to people as pollyannas. He's broken that promise far too often this offseason. His posts are frequently much more inflammatory and sophmoric than anything I could post.

 

I could care less who gets banned on here. I just wish Fred could be a bit more respectful of others if that's how he wants to be treated. He has a good baseball background, but it's hidden behind all that garbage.

[a700hitter]

Fred and I had a deal. I'd never call him out if he stopped refering to people as pollyannas. He's broken that promise far too often this offseason. His posts are frequently much more inflammatory and sophmoric than anything I could post.

 

I could care less who gets banned on here. I just wish Fred could be a bit more respectful of others if that's how he wants to be treated. He has a good baseball background, but it's hidden behind all that garbage.

He didn't call anyone a pollyanna.

[seabeachfred]

Fred and I had a deal. I'd never call him out if he stopped refering to people as pollyannas. He's broken that promise far too often this offseason. His posts are frequently much more inflammatory and sophmoric than anything I could post.

 

I could care less who gets banned on here. I just wish Fred could be a bit more respectful of others if that's how he wants to be treated. He has a good baseball background, but it's hidden behind all that garbage.

 

I didn't know we had a deal MVP----and if so I forgot.....another senior moment. I sent you a PM. I hope you act on it.

[mvp 78]

No, you didn't.

[seabeachfred]

No, you didn't.

 

Yes I did!!!!! At my age these things happen as you will find out when you reach my age. I never called you a pollyanna either; I don't think I called anyone but User that and I did it once. As for you actually believing I am not a Red Sox fan, do you actually believe that? You've read my posts for over a year. No one can be that good an actor.

 

Hope you're having a nice day.

[SoxSport]

I wonder about Dickey in the AL, too. And in a hitters ballpark. Plus he won the CY last year, and that often means an off-year the next year. And then he's 38.

 

You have to wonder about the Jays. They have a bunch of stars, but that doesn't guarantee wins. Their pitching is what counts. You wonder if Johnson can stay healthy, what Dickey will do, whether Romero can rebound, etc. Every team has questionmarks. Can the Orioles be Cinderella again? Will the Red Sox have still another year when everything goes wrong? Will age finally catch up with the Yankees? Can the Rays replace Shields?

 

Always questions at this time of year that are tough to answer.

[a700hitter]

I wonder about Dickey in the AL, too. And in a hitters ballpark. Plus he won the CY last year, and that often means an off-year the next year. And then he's 38.

 

You have to wonder about the Jays. They have a bunch of stars, but that doesn't guarantee wins. Their pitching is what counts. You wonder if Johnson can stay healthy, what Dickey will do, whether Romero can rebound, etc. Every team has questionmarks. Can the Orioles be Cinderella again? Will the Red Sox have still another year when everything goes wrong? Will age finally catch up with the Yankees? Can the Rays replace Shields?

 

Always questions at this time of year that are tough to answer.

I think Dickey will perform better than Dempster for almost equivalent salaries.

[who]

Tough talk from a guy who has only been a fan of the Sox for just over a decade. Some of these so called pollyannas and ballwashers have actually been fans their whole lives. You just got to pick and choose what team you wanted to follow, which coincidentally happened after Pedro's amazing 99 season. Give it a rest johnny come lately.

 

Maybe the Sox will suck again this year and you'll become a Rangers fan after falling in love with their stadium.

 

Silly bandwagon fans!