Lester on the block

[a700hitter]

Hanley Ramirez was a #1 prospect and was traded. I suspect Jacob Turner was a #1 prospect when Detroit moves him for Sanchez. I'm confident there are other examples.

 

Secondly, just because a prospect isn't Harper or Trout doesn't mean they aren't good. He'll, Trout is a much better player than Harper even so grouping them might not even make sense.

 

As for being one dimensional, wasn't Ted Williams that way? Babe Ruth? Was Hank Aaron known for his defense? Unless its atrocious I think it will be tolerable.

 

Finally you said that there are reports that Myers defense isn't MLB ready. I believe that you read that (rather than just citing made up stuff) but can you find the link so I can see it too? Thanks.

Hanley had attitude issues in the Red Sox organization and he had a rocky up and down stay with us. We were going to move him to CF if he stayed with the Sox according to my recollection. Also, we moved Hanley for a big stud young pitcher whose career was on the way up. Beckett was lighting up the gun at 97 consistently. Lester is experiencing diminishing velocity and he is coming off a terrible season.

 

As for the report on his fielding, in a recent Peter A article, he made the statement about the scouting reports on Myers' fielding. He also mentioned the fact that Myers struck out 140 times in the minors last year. That is bound to go up in the majors.

 

As for the examples of one dimensional players provided by you, yes, Teddy Ballgame was one dimensional, but he probably didn't strike out 140 times in 3 combined major league seasons, so I don't think Myers is the next Ted Williams. Ruth was not one dimensional. In addition to being the all-time greatest slugger, he was arguably one of the best left handed pitchers in history. He had very good speed when he was young and he could field. His athleticism was legendary. Henry Aaron was a great fielder, not good, but great. He had a strong arm too. Aaron was an excellent base runner with very good speed. You need to do some research before you make statements like that.

[User Name]

Hanley had attitude issues in the Red Sox organization and he had a rocky up and down stay with us. We were going to move him to CF if he stayed with the Sox according to my recollection. Also, we moved Hanley for a big stud young pitcher whose career was on the way up. Beckett was lighting up the gun at 97 consistently. Lester is experiencing diminishing velocity and he is coming off a terrible season.

 

Another example of statements made without prior research:

 

Jon Lester career average fastball velocity: 92.5 MPH.

 

Jon Lester 2012 average fastball velocity: 92.6 MPH.

[mvp 78]

Another example of statements made without prior research:

 

Jon Lester career average fastball velocity: 92.5 MPH.

 

Jon Lester 2012 average fastball velocity: 92.6 MPH.

 

But but but but the cutter!

[Dojji]

It doesn't matter whether he can throw the ball if he can' t catch it. His defense has been described as possibly not major league level. He is not a base stealer, so he is 1 dimensional insofar as he can only hit.

 

I'd looooooove to know exactly what you think the 5 tools are.

 

Here they are in no particular order

 

Hit for contact (this has, to some extent, been replaced with "plate discipline" but in either case, is a valid "tool."

Hit for power (separate from conatct-hitting/discipline, for obvious reasons)

Run the bases

Run down the ball

Throw the ball

 

At least three of those tools are not in question when it comes to Myers, so calling him one dimensional is a "strecther" to be putting it mildly -- if not an outright lie.

 

Besides which, the 2 of the 3 tools that are not in question are easily the 2 most important tools for a corner outfielder, which he would definitely be in Boston.

 

I'm not in favor of the trade, but just because I agree with you doesn't mean you get to invent your own truth and go live there in blissful disregard of the actual facts.

[seabeachfred]

With fans like you, who needs the Yankees?

 

Sometimes Forsyth the truth really hurts, but even if you didn't like what I wrote, please me one thing in my post that was incorrect. There wasn't anything. You just didn't like hearing it. Think about Lester this past season and tell me three things you liked about his performance. You would be very hard pressed to.

[a700hitter]

I'd looooooove to know exactly what you think the 5 tools are.

 

Here they are in no particular order

 

Hit for contact (this has, to some extent, been replaced with "plate discipline" but in either case, is a valid "tool."

Hit for power (separate from conatct-hitting/discipline, for obvious reasons)

Run the bases

Run down the ball

Throw the ball

 

At least three of those tools are not in question when it comes to Myers, so calling him one dimensional is a "strecther" to be putting it mildly -- if not an outright lie.

 

Besides which, the 2 of the 3 tools that are not in question are easily the 2 most important tools for a corner outfielder, which he would definitely be in Boston.

 

I'm not in favor of the trade, but just because I agree with you doesn't mean you get to invent your own truth and go live there in blissful disregard of the actual facts.

If people in the know say that he is barely passable as a major league OFer and he doesn't steal bases, I would conclude that he is one-dimensional.

 

BTW: Why would I lie about this kid or any player? Maybe my sources of information are wrong. I can't vouch for the information as infallible, but to infer that I would lie about something as inconsequential as a stupid discussion on Sports Forum is ridiculous. I read about his fielding and his high k rate in a Peter A article. Who knows... maybe he is lying.:thumbdown

 

Edit: I am in favor of trading Lester if they think he is on the downslide. I suggested trading him during the season. I am just not sold on this kid from what I have read.

 

Seriously, what an *******.

[DocHolliday]

My only issue with the proposed deal is the future of the pitching staff, with or without Lester.

 

To this point, the only pitcher on the Sox roster who has shown any capability of filling the role of ace at ANY point in their career is Lester. Granted, the last resemblance of that type of dominance came in the latter part of 2010, better than 2 years in the past. Maybe some of the drop off can be attributed to losing Farrell as pitching coach. But I think we can all agree to some extent that Lester has lost some of the edge he had in 2010 - whether its due to health, approach, hitter adjustments, or poor coaching, its clear Lester has lost the edge he had from 2 seasons ago. So its not a given that even if Lester stays that he will return to be a semblance of his old self.

 

Say he does get traded for Myers or another highly regarded positional prospect - who do the Sox have in the current staff or in the upper levels of the farm system that could step in and replace Lester's assumed role of ace (whether we agree that he truely is that or not)? Buchholz? Doubront? De La Rosa? There are plenty of question marks and varying levels of doubt with all of these and any other current candidates that could be thrown out there.

 

I'd say its safe to say that a trade of Lester for a positional prospect could be an unofficial punt on 2013. Assuming the prospect wasn't subsequently shipped out as part of a trade for a pitcher of Verlander or Felix Hernandez caliber, many chips would have to fall in the Sox favor to seriously contend in 2013 without having a ace like pitcher at the top (and reliable depth starters in slots 2 - 6 or 7).

[jung]

We are down to struggling just to establish any level of reliability at this point whether it is 1 in the rotation reliability or some other level of reliability. We can bring in a guy or two for a year to get us through 2013 but one 1 year deals they will be costly. As stated earlier these most recent BC comments are really disturbing...suggest that they might not even do a 1 year deal for somebody. Granted it would seem they would have to do at least one as we don;t even have 5 guys for the rotation at the moment even with Lester.

[SoxSport]

They have a ton of money to spend. I'd rather see them spend the money on FAs--which they didn't do last year-- than give up prospects or starting pitching in deals. Especially FAs that don't require any draft picks. Their no.1 is exempt, anyways. When you think about it, FAs are the obvious way to go.

[Plumpamania]

So if we're gonna have issues with or without Lester, why not save the cash and bank in on another possible top hitting star?

[DocHolliday]

We are down to struggling just to establish any level of reliability at this point whether it is 1 in the rotation reliability or some other level of reliability. We can bring in a guy or two for a year to get us through 2013 but one 1 year deals they will be costly. As stated earlier these most recent BC comments are really disturbing...suggest that they might not even do a 1 year deal for somebody. Granted it would seem they would have to do at least one as we don;t even have 5 guys for the rotation at the moment even with Lester.

 

True - they almost certainly have to bring someone else in (if they keep Lester), whether its for a 1 year or multiple years. But I think it makes a lot more sense for the FA addition to be on a 1 year basis - even if its an overpay AAV. I'm not going to suggest that any of us will be giving the Sox a lot of slack if the option they brought in turned out to be a 2011 Lackey or a 2005 Wade Miller or Matt Clement. But if it did turn out that way, they could cut ties at the end of the season, as opposed to having to bring them back for another 2 or 3 seasons, and that would probably save us (and probably them) a lot of agony.

 

They've made the mistake with FA pitchers on multi year contracts so many times, even when they had competitive teams and the mistakes were less significant. If they went out and signed another dud for multiple years, many of us would be giving them a lot more hell than we would if they made the same mistake on a 1 year deal.

[Spitball]

If people in the know say that he is barely passable as a major league OFer and he doesn't steal bases, I would conclude that he is one-dimensional.

 

Links?

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/making-the-comparison-wil-myers1/

 

If Myers struggles, it will probably be with a slightly higher average and slightly lower power than Burrell had, but the same profile remains. Myers will offer more defensive value than Burrell, even if he can't play center field, but it's not enough to make him more than right around league average if he's a .260 hitter.

 

So what do we have in Myers?

 

The good news with our comps is that Myers should develop into a regular in the Royals lineup for a nice long prime. He is an immensely talented hitter whose risk of falling flat on his face is extremely limited at this point. Could he still fail completely? Of course, any prospect can. But we can be as sure of Myers become at least a league-average hitter as we can of any prospect currently in the minors.

 

The question is what type of hitter Myers will become. Is he going to be a great all-around hitter like Holliday, who can hit over .300 and hit 30 home runs a season while limiting strikeouts? Or will he do so with moderate power in the 20 homer range instead? Or is the power and strikeout combo the real Myers, and if so, how much will the strikeouts affect his ability to hit for average? And lastly, what happens to Myers when the league ultimately figures him out? Can he adjust?

 

Our comps of Holliday, Alou, Dye and Burrell lay out the possibilities for Myers in the near future. He should be an impact hitter for the Royals, and likely soon, but there's no guarantee he'll be the three-hitter fans are already penciling him in to be.

[example1]

Hanley had attitude issues in the Red Sox organization and he had a rocky up and down stay with us. We were going to move him to CF if he stayed with the Sox according to my recollection. Also, we moved Hanley for a big stud young pitcher whose career was on the way up. Beckett was lighting up the gun at 97 consistently. Lester is experiencing diminishing velocity and he is coming off a terrible season.

 

Your point was that teams don't trade top prospects. I gave you examples and you talked about the player returned. That has nothing to do with whether teams trade top prospects. Attitude problem, genital warts, it doesn't matter. You said they don't, I showed they do.

 

As for the report on his fielding, in a recent Peter A article, he made the statement about the scouting reports on Myers' fielding. He also mentioned the fact that Myers struck out 140 times in the minors last year. That is bound to go up in the majors.

 

He apparently didn't read the same scouting reports that I did or which have been posted here. Terrible fielders are placed in the corner OF positions, even in the minor leagues. It doesn't make sense to play him in CF. The scouting reports I've seen say he has good athleticism for a player his size.

 

I don't disagree with Abraham's general concern about a COF for a SP. However, if Lester has been in a real decline (as you argue) then it's not a huge loss. Also, Myers has been playing CF in the minors. In theory, he could play that in Fenway, if the Sox didn't have superior fielders like Ellsbury and Bradley Jr waiting. No need for him to play there. Go to LF, play decent OF and rake. That's all he needs to do.

 

As for the examples of one dimensional players provided by you, yes, Teddy Ballgame was one dimensional, but he probably didn't strike out 140 times in 3 combined major league seasons, so I don't think Myers is the next Ted Williams. Ruth was not one dimensional. In addition to being the all-time greatest slugger, he was arguably one of the best left handed pitchers in history. He had very good speed when he was young and he could field. His athleticism was legendary. Henry Aaron was a great fielder, not good, but great. He had a strong arm too. Aaron was an excellent base runner with very good speed. You need to do some research before you make statements like that.

 

I appreciate your history lesson. Baseball Ref lists Ruth's defensive contribution as -2.3 wins throughout his career, with a season high of 1.2 in 1923. Perhaps he was an excellent fielder, or maybe he was just a good hitter and an average fielder. Those numbers don't say anything great about his fielding. And yes, he was a pitcher too. As for Aaron, my bad. He was a great fielder. I take it back.

 

Plenty of scouting reports and "experts" say they make that deal in a heartbeat. I don't agree with you that it never makes sense to trade someone who is a #2 or #3 starter for a player with the potential to put up a mid .900 OPS if that batter is only an average fielder. The fact that Myers will cost virtually nothing ($$ wise) and is only beginning his career adds enough to me to be comfortable with them taking that risk. Your opinion is clearly different. No point in disputing it much more.

[BSN07]

If people in the know say that he is barely passable as a major league OFer and he doesn't steal bases, I would conclude that he is one-dimensional.

 

BTW: Why would I lie about this kid or any player? Maybe my sources of information are wrong. I can't vouch for the information as infallible, but to infer that I would lie about something as inconsequential as a stupid discussion on Sports Forum is ridiculous. I read about his fielding and his high k rate in a Peter A article. Who knows... maybe he is lying.:thumbdown

 

Edit: I am in favor of trading Lester if they think he is on the downslide. I suggested trading him during the season. I am just not sold on this kid from what I have read.

 

Seriously, what an *******.

 

Yes he's barely passable in CF in his first full season at the position after moving from not a COF spot, but catcher.

[BSN07]

The Rays are nearing a one-year deal with James Loney, but the team is also discussing the possiblity of a trade with the Nationals that would involve starting pitching for Danny Espinosa and Michael Morse, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio (Twitter link).

 

I hope TB makes this trade. If they do they are less llikely to trade with KC, making Lester KC's best option.

[example1]

I suppose so BSN but Tampa Bay tends to do pretty well with their moves, so I hate to see them being active in any regard.

[jung]

TB does do pretty well. They are always drafting pitching which tends to make them rich in pitching and there are few teams that can make that claim. I guess that might account for their success rate when it comes to trades as they are one of the few places a team could go to find some pitching.

[cbbosox]

To me it's simple

If the Sox think they can contend next year keep Lester

If not trade him

[jacksonianmarch]

I just dont see the rationale behind dealing from your weakness to add to a strength. If I was Cherington, I only deal Lester if I think I can get a better pitcher

[BSN07]

I just dont see the rationale behind dealing from your weakness to add to a strength. If I was Cherington, I only deal Lester if I think I can get a better pitcher

 

Because even with Lester it has the chance of being a bad rotation. Besides I think they could bring someone like Haren and get similar production for the next couple years. They could always re-sign him in 2 years when Myers, Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, De la Rosa and Webster are ready to contribute.

[jacksonianmarch]

Because even with Lester it has the chance of being a bad rotation. Besides I think they could bring someone like Haren and get similar production for the next couple years. They could always re-sign him in 2 years when Myers, Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, De la Rosa and Webster are ready to contribute.

 

As we see with all prospects, though, they aren't a sure thing. Injuries and ineffectiveness limit a lot of these prospects, especially those on the pitching end. You know what you have in terms of workload for Lester. You hope he can pitch to his potential and give you high end innings. And I doubt Haren can do that, especially when his hip and back are issues of contention and he lost velo last yr. Back injuries, mid 30s and lost velocity are bad mixes for starting pitchers

[BSN07]

As we see with all prospects, though, they aren't a sure thing. Injuries and ineffectiveness limit a lot of these prospects, especially those on the pitching end. You know what you have in terms of workload for Lester. You hope he can pitch to his potential and give you high end innings. And I doubt Haren can do that, especially when his hip and back are issues of contention and he lost velo last yr. Back injuries, mid 30s and lost velocity are bad mixes for starting pitchers

 

I'm just saying what Lester has done over the last couple years is not irreplaceable. And normally I'm hesitant to want to give up a more proven asset like Lester for prospects. Myers is just a unique situation.

[User Name]

As we see with all prospects, though, they aren't a sure thing. Injuries and ineffectiveness limit a lot of these prospects, especially those on the pitching end. You know what you have in terms of workload for Lester. You hope he can pitch to his potential and give you high end innings. And I doubt Haren can do that, especially when his hip and back are issues of contention and he lost velo last yr. Back injuries, mid 30s and lost velocity are bad mixes for starting pitchers

 

Haren was reasonably effective given his back issues last year. He's also 32, which is still relatively young, not 35 or 36. This is a guy you can gamble on for one year. If at his worst he's going to post 2012 numbers, he'd still be a significant upgrade for the Red Sox rotation.

[jung]

I am not at all convinced that people realize how bad this rotation could be. For one thing Lester is the only guy that has gone innings for a team that has beaten the hell out of its bull pen two years running. While Lester has not provided the kinds of innings you would expect from a 1, he has eaten more innings than anybody they are likely to bring in even on these anticipated one year deals....which I have supported.

[User Name]

The truth is that no matter what they do for next year, as Lester goes, so goes the starting rotation.

[BSN07]

The Tigers made Anibal Sanchez a contract offer earlier in the offseason worth $48MM over four years, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link). According to Heyman, Detroit was informed by Sanchez's agent that such an offer would "insult" the right-hander, who is seeking $90MM for six years

 

That seems like a reasonable offer. I think LAD is the only team that would give him 90M, and that's only if the miss out on Grienke.

[a700hitter]

That seems like a reasonable offer. I think LAD is the only team that would give him 90M, and that's only if the miss out on Grienke.

If he goes for 4/$60 million, that's not too bad considering the supply ad demand for pitching this off season.

[BSN07]

If he goes for 4/$60 million, that's not too bad considering the supply ad demand for pitching this off season.

 

I said I'd be fine seeing the Sox offer 4/60M. I don't know if that will be enough and anything more it starts to get iffy.

[rjortiz]

Tigers offered Sanchez 4/48, which Sanchez's agent called an insult.

[RedSoxNC84]

We won't get Sanchez unless Cherington really opens up the purse, or a miracle happens.. If they don't want to sign someone at more than five years, I doubt we're going to see this guy in a sox uniform.