Rotation

[a700hitter]

Been always his problem. He thinks that all we say are facts. He does not understand, it is all about opinions. Certainly, some are facts but mostly are OPINIONS. BTW I wrote IMO. Hahahaha.

 

Sure! We see things eye to eye most of the times but we disagree at times; thing is that we do not need to insult or make the othe change a point of view or opinion. It's called prudence.

 

...again and as I said, hard to disagree with someone (you) you think (I) is right. Plain and Simple.

People don't realize that we often differ in our opinions, because we address each other respectfully and don't attack each other. We have been agreeing about the need for starting pitching since last off season. Our opinion turned out to be fact in 2012. I still feel strongly about the need for pitching. Yes, it is an opinion, but our pitching was atrocious last year. I think it is a safe bet that if we don't add some pitching that rebound years will not be enough to make the staff be respectable in 2013, and Lester showed little to no signs that he was figuring things out as the season progressed. If we go north after Spring Training with the same guys that produced garbage last year, I don't think it is reasonable to expect much better than garbage.

[iortiz]

People don't realize that we often differ in our opinions, because we address each other respectfully and don't attack each other. We have been agreeing about the need for starting pitching since last off season. Our opinion turned out to be fact in 2012. I still feel strongly about the need for pitching. Yes, it is an opinion, but our pitching was atrocious last year. I think it is a safe bet that if we don't add some pitching that rebound years will not be enough to make the staff be respectable in 2013, and Lester showed little to no signs that he was figuring things out as the season progressed. If we go north after Spring Training with the same guys that produced garbage last year, I don't think it is reasonable to expect much better than garbage.

 

You base your opinions on what we all saw last season. We were a blank check since our pitching was horrible. Saying that we need 2 pitchers is not rocket science.

 

At this point we have a bunch of #3-5 pitchers at best. We just can not go like this.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Then why was Cherington surprised at the deal if he was plugged into the process at the end? That makes no sense.

 

I completely agree with you that the Red Sox need another Jackson/Sanchez/Marcum type FA starter and would be disappointed if Cherrington just sat on that. Completely disagree that Cherington being 'surprised' has anything to do with him getting his lunch eaten. Maybe he was surprised the deal got that big but I would bet that he knew exactly what it was going to take to get Johnson and wasn't about to take on 150mil of Reyes/Beuhrle in order to do it.

[User Name]

^This.

 

Also, executive summary: a700 makes unsupported assumptions, and iortiz agrees. As precise as clockwork.

[a700hitter]

I completely agree with you that the Red Sox need another Jackson/Sanchez/Marcum type FA starter and would be disappointed if Cherrington just sat on that. Completely disagree that Cherington being 'surprised' has anything to do with him getting his lunch eaten. Maybe he was surprised the deal got that big but I would bet that he knew exactly what it was going to take to get Johnson and wasn't about to take on 150mil of Reyes/Beuhrle in order to do it.

I have to say that some of the things he has said in interviews since he has had the job give some people, including me, to wonder whether he has a good command of his job. This off season will be his proving grounds. As far as I am concerned, his grade is still incomplete. I can understand people having doubts about him. It shouldn't be a big surprise. Their concerns are not invalid.

[Bellhorn04]

I have to say that some of the things he has said in interviews since he has had the job give some people, including me, to wonder whether he has a good command of his job. This off season will be his proving grounds. As far as I am concerned, his grade is still incomplete. I can understand people having doubts about him. It shouldn't be a big surprise. Their concerns are not invalid.

 

I understand the doubts as well and I agree that the grade is incomplete at this point. I was thinking about this today - to this point the Red Sox still haven't made a single big dollar acquisition since Cherington came on as GM. That should be changing very soon.

[a700hitter]

I understand the doubts as well and I agree that the grade is incomplete at this point. I was thinking about this today - to this point the Red Sox still haven't made a single big dollar acquisition since Cherington came on as GM. That should be changing very soon.

I am expecting a couple of deals before December 1st.

[redsoxfan3]

I still am not sure what BC has in mind for rotation plans, but I would love nothing more than to sign Anibal Sanchez and to trade for a guy like Jon Niese. I think packaging Doubront and Salty (or some other sort of trade) to get a guy like Jon Niese would be a nice addition. A rotation of Niese, Sanchez, Buchholz, Lester, and Lackey would be pretty decent. There is no true ace in there, but there is a lot of potential there if Buchholz and Lester can get back to performing like they have in recent years. I am not saying we have to get Sanchez and Niese, but if we add to guys with the potential that they have, then I think we will have a competitive rotation.

[example1]

A700 I agree about the need for pitching. I'm waiting to be convinced that Harrm--who will likely command big bucks and years--is a great solution. I do like the Edwin Jackson idea though. Was interested in him last offseason.

[mvp 78]

We were a blank check since our pitching was horrible.

At this point we have a bunch of #3-5 pitchers at best. We just can not go like this.

I'm not sure I understand what point #1 means.

 

For point 2, I'd say Lester is a 2. They definitely need a #1 and should be emptying their farm system for that guy. However, if they are going to not really make a run until 2015, just wait to pick one up later.

[Elktonnick]

I'm not sure I understand what point #1 means.

 

For point 2, I'd say Lester is a 2. They definitely need a #1 and should be emptying their farm system for that guy. However, if they are going to not really make a run until 2015, just wait to pick one up later.

 

At one time John Lester was a number 2 whether he is still that good remains to be seen. From my perspective, his over use of the cutter and his temperment has resulted him no longer being a power pitcher. This year will be huge fior Lester. If he doesn't return to form under Farrell then no more excuses.

[BSN07]

I still am not sure what BC has in mind for rotation plans, but I would love nothing more than to sign Anibal Sanchez and to trade for a guy like Jon Niese. I think packaging Doubront and Salty (or some other sort of trade) to get a guy like Jon Niese would be a nice addition. A rotation of Niese, Sanchez, Buchholz, Lester, and Lackey would be pretty decent. There is no true ace in there, but there is a lot of potential there if Buchholz and Lester can get back to performing like they have in recent years. I am not saying we have to get Sanchez and Niese, but if we add to guys with the potential that they have, then I think we will have a competitive rotation.

 

Jon Niese in Fenway-AL East is an awful idea.

 

Sanchez is a good idea at the right price. 4/60M is ok. If he starts getting in Beckett-Lackey-AJ territory it becomes far less attractive. I think some team is going to over pay for him and I'd rather it not be the Red Sox. I'd much rather have a Haren and Hernandez on a one year deal.

 

I wonder if Cleveland would do a Morales+Miller+ prospect for Masterson? Morales gets a chance to start, Miller is a solid BP piece.

 

Miller and Morales produced a 1.4 WAR combined last season. Masterson was 2.3. I think Masterson's struggles split wise is enough to knock down his trade value. But getting him back with Farrell has upside.

 

If the Sox add another respectable prospect or two low level guys it seems plausible. There is still enough BP help on the market to replace those guys as well.

[mvp 78]

At one time John Lester was a number 2 whether he is still that good remains to be seen. From my perspective, his over use of the cutter and his temperment has resulted him no longer being a power pitcher. This year will be huge fior Lester. If he doesn't return to form under Farrell then no more excuses.

 

If Buch and Lestercan forget about 2012 and pitch how they did in 2011, they'll be fine. I'd still rather a different guy at #1.

[BSN07]

If Buch and Lestercan forget about 2012 and pitch how they did in 2011, they'll be fine. I'd still rather a different guy at #1.

 

Yes that would be good. Both actually have a chance to be that number one. Lester was but took a step back. Buchholz just hasn't made that final leap to the upper tier of pitchers. But ya having a known horse in the #1 spot would be sweet.

[Elktonnick]

If Buch and Lestercan forget about 2012 and pitch how they did in 2011, they'll be fine. I'd still rather a different guy at #1.

 

And I hope for peace in the Middle East.

[mvp 78]

And I hope for peace in the Middle East.

 

It's impossible for them to pitch the way they did just two years ago? It's not like they've had 5 straight seasons of suckitude.

[Elktonnick]

It's impossible for them to pitch the way they did just two years ago? It's not like they've had 5 straight seasons of suckitude.

 

Lester has gone downhill steadily in my view. I believe it is due to the Red Sox's pitching philosophy. I don't care for the over use of the cutter. I suscribe to the view that the cutter over time accelerates arm weakness. Beckett inculcated this rotation with the cutter. They were throwing it too much. I don't believe the decline was just due to Valentine but rather the underlying pitching philosophy.

 

We'll see if Lester bounces back. I hope he does. but I am not holding my breath.

[User Name]

Lester has gone downhill steadily in my view. I believe it is due to the Red Sox's pitching philosophy. I don't care for the over use of the cutter. I suscribe to the view that the cutter over time accelerates arm weakness. Beckett inculcated this rotation with the cutter. They were throwing it too much. I don't believe the decline was just due to Valentine but rather the underlying pitching philosophy.

 

We'll see if Lester bounces back. I hope he does. but I am not holding my breath.

 

There's absolutely zero proof to back this up. Not only are there a number of successful starting pitchers who use the cutter as their main out pitch (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee among them) but there's zero indication that Lester's velocity or stuff is declining. His 92.6 MPH fastball velocity from last year is right around his career average.

 

Made-up baloney.

[jacksonianmarch]

There's absolutely zero proof to back this up. Not only are there a number of successful starting pitchers who use the cutter as their main out pitch (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee among them) but there's zero indication that Lester's velocity or stuff is declining. His 92.6 MPH fastball velocity from last year is right around his career average.

 

Made-up baloney.

 

Lester is down 1.5mph off his best seasons. He was 92.0mph last yr per fangraphs and his average in 09-10 was 93.5. Not a big drop, but it is more than just a little drop. His problem isnt stuff, though, it's location

[BSN07]

Some general managers believe the secondary starting pitching options are incredibly overpriced, Olney reports

 

I think that was obvious when Sanchez name was mentioned as a possible 100M pitcher. I think it makes it even more likely they avoid the main part of the secondary pitching market and look at guys like Harden, Braden, Hernadez, and maybe even a Blanton that maybe settle for one year deals to rebuild value and have some measurement of upside.

[BSN07]

Lester is down 1.5mph off his best seasons. He was 92.0mph last yr per fangraphs and his average in 09-10 was 93.5. Not a big drop, but it is more than just a little drop. His problem isnt stuff, though, it's location

 

It's the same issues he had when he first came up. It's why I'm hopeful Farrell can get him back on track.

[User Name]

Lester is down 1.5mph off his best seasons. He was 92.0mph last yr per fangraphs and his average in 09-10 was 93.5. Not a big drop, but it is more than just a little drop. His problem isnt stuff, though, it's location

 

His first really good season was 2008, where he averaged just a tick over 92 MPH, and less than his AFV last year or 2011. You said it yourself, velocity is not the problem, and there's no identifiable trend in the ways of velocity loss.

[a700hitter]

Lester has gone downhill steadily in my view. I believe it is due to the Red Sox's pitching philosophy. I don't care for the over use of the cutter. I suscribe to the view that the cutter over time accelerates arm weakness. Beckett inculcated this rotation with the cutter. They were throwing it too much. I don't believe the decline was just due to Valentine but rather the underlying pitching philosophy.

 

We'll see if Lester bounces back. I hope he does. but I am not holding my breath.

I agree that this has been a 2 year decline. People don't remember that after 2011, Lester and others were talking about him having a bounce back season in 2012. He was not pleased with his 2011. This is why 2012's debacle is so concerning. This is two years in a row where we are talking about a Lester bounce back. 2011's numbers look fine without context and we would kill for him to get back to that level, but it doesn't change the fact that his stuff and game has been slipping for 2 seasons. Last year was more than a slip. It was a cliff.

[User Name]

Lester's 2011 numbers: 3.47 ERA,191.2 IP 1.26 WHIP, 182 K. He had a bad month, but his overall numbers were very, very good.

 

Reading through some of these posts makes me wanna hit my head against the wall repeatedly.

[jung]

Lester did not take the reins as the number 1 rotation guy and run with it. He simply never was the stopper that you would expect a 1 to be. He did not have really solid (I am doing what a 1 does) performances especially when the Sox really needed them. However he did everything else and I would argue that if Beckett had been a solid 1 again, you would have taken Lester warts and all in 2011 as the 2. Unfortunately for Lester, he was the guy everybody expected to step up in 2011 and it didn't happen.

 

As for 2012, his problem has been deteriorating mechanics. Unfortunately the Sox seemed to allow them to deteriorate to a point where you could no longer even see from the typical behind the pitcher view that the ball had any chance of even getting close to the plate. For a few games right in the middle of the worst of it, walks went nuts, he would finally be stuck where most pitchers get when that happens, eventually grooving the ball and having some rocket come back the other way.

 

He gathered himself to some extent but you could tell just watching him that he was expending tremendous amounts of concentration to get it done. Is it any wonder that he was less distracted by ump calls during the later stretch of the season. IMO it took everything he had to pitch even just as well as he did later in the season.

 

I don't know if they are going to have to rebuild his motion from scratch....hope not. I for one continue to believe he worked his ass off just to pitch as well as he did down the stretch. However I think the chances of going through a whole season like that are slim and none. Guy was probably exhausted after every start.

[Palodios]

Lester did not take the reins as the number 1 rotation guy and run with it. He simply never was the stopper that you would expect a 1 to be. He did not have really solid (I am doing what a 1 does) performances especially when the Sox really needed them.

 

I've heard this before, and it really bothers me. They needed him EVERY game. The only games where he pitched poorly were games that the Red Sox were well ahead of the playoff race.

 

The 2011 Red Sox got to an awful start, and were far below .500? Jon Lester had a 2.52 ERA in April.

 

When the team was pulling its self together, he struggled a bit, but managed to pull a 4-1 record in May

 

And what about when the team needed to pick up ground on its AL East foes? 2.31, 1.56, 2.78 ERAs in June, July, August.

 

And what about the very last game of his season when a must-win game against Baltimore? 6 innings, 2 runs. Can you really complain about that?

[SoxSport]

I figure Lester and Buccholz will come back this year, with Farrell back. If they don't, the Sox won't have a prayer to make the playoffs. But they will need a replacement for Beckett, and that has to be Lackey, right now. They are safer with Lackey as the 5th starter his 1st year back from surgery, following Doubront, and sign a #3 starter from the likes of Haren, Jackson, etc. I'd also like to see Morales in the picture as a starter, since he showed more than any of them last year before his arm gave out.

[jung]

Lester pitched 180 innings in 2011...far short of the expectations for a 1. Theo often rescued both Lester and Beckett in 2011 by pulling them out of games early enough to save their stats. I am sure Tito did it cause he thought that was the best way to win games and manage his pitchers but he had had a low tolerance for problem innings. About one problem inning is all you got from Tito. Funny that people want to make a case for Lester AND Beckett's 2011 when their manager (the same guy the team eventually gutted) saved both of their asses. So we can all look back now and glory in their gaudy stats built over short innings in both cases. At least Beckett went 193 innings, closer to what you would expect but still short for a rotation 1.

 

What is the absolute distinction everybody and I mean everybody points to that distinguishes a rotation 1....innings pitched. Neither guy did the job in 2011 but at the end of the day, nobody but nobody thought Lester filled the bill better than Beckett in 2011 even though we all expected that he would. Lester barely crawled into enough innings for a 2 but was not even close for a 1.

[Palodios]

Lester pitched 180 innings in 2011.

 

You don't have your facts straight.

[jung]

Your right...he pitched 191...same argument...different number