Rotation

[BSN07]

Guthrie is not s***. Unlike the majority of the players out there, he is AL East proven.

 

Once again, realize that he would be taking the place of Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation, not Beckett.

 

Guthrie on a one year deal? Sure. 3 years? That makes it "s***" for me He's a decent back end guy, but he is not someone I had interest in on a multi year deal.

[a700hitter]

I think it was actually a caught looking.

The Sox were rumored to have made inquiries about Gio, but you are probably right. Cherries is the J.D. Drew of GMs. He watches a lot of called strike threes right down the middle of the plate.

[a700hitter]

Doesn't mean you throw more money at s***. It's thin for a reason. And just because they have a lot to spend, doesn't mean they have to spend it now. Maybe they really are on total rebuild mode. ANd if that's the case how often to those teams jump early into Free Agency?

 

I'd rather see a team of prospects then team full of Guthrie's, Berkman's, and other retreads that don't make the team significantly better and save the money for a legit star.

If he doesn't make any moves to improve the pitching, they will be a last place, 90+ loss team again, and it will be another season of zero meaningful games after August 1st.

 

The Sox had their worst season in 46 years. They need to be aggressive this season just to get back to respectable. They can be aggressive and improve the team without breaking the bank. They need a couple of 30 start 200 inning starters. They don't have to get King Felix. A solid staff that can go deep into games would get this team back to respectability. The staff doesn't need to be spectacular. If Lester and Buchholz improve over last year and the back end of the rotation is also solid, they would be a respectable team that could chase a wild card spot.

 

If he plays this waiting game and doesn't build the pitching, they will finish last. Finishing last two years in a row can really damage the value of the franchise. Look back when they had back to back 90+ loss years. People were not going to games. In tough financial times, people will find other things to spend money on instead of paying the exorbitant price to go to Fenway to see a last place team full of no-names.

 

I am still confident that we will see some major moves befor December 1st when tickets go on sale.

[kapsis21]

The Sox were rumored to have made inquiries about Gio, but you are probably right. Cherries is the J.D. Drew of GMs. He watches a lot of called strike threes right down the middle of the plate.

 

lol but i still cannot forget JD Drews game against the Guardians, he was partial reason why we came back from a 3-1 deficit in 07 ALCS

[a700hitter]

lol but i still cannot forget JD Drews game against the Guardians, he was partial reason why we came back from a 3-1 deficit in 07 ALCS

That's right. And I am waiting for Cherington to have his J.D. Drew Grand Slam moment.

[BSN07]

If he doesn't make any moves to improve the pitching, they will be a last place, 90+ loss team again, and it will be another season of zero meaningful games after August 1st.

 

The Sox had their worst season in 46 years. They need to be aggressive this season just to get back to respectable. They can be aggressive and improve the team without breaking the bank. They need a couple of 30 start 200 inning starters. They don't have to get King Felix. A solid staff that can go deep into games would get this team back to respectability. The staff doesn't need to be spectacular. If Lester and Buchholz improve over last year and the back end of the rotation is also solid, they would be a respectable team that could chase a wild card spot.

 

If he plays this waiting game and doesn't build the pitching, they will finish last. Finishing last two years in a row can really damage the value of the franchise. Look back when they had back to back 90+ loss years. People were not going to games. In tough financial times, people will find other things to spend money on instead of paying the exorbitant price to go to Fenway to see a last place team full of no-names.

 

I am still confident that we will see some major moves befor December 1st when tickets go on sale.

 

Have you looked at the FA market? I mean really looked? There are no options outside of Grienke without some sort of issue or worry. They need a front line pitcher and there is one available. Maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle with Haren types. But even signing a few of those guys is no guarantee they will be "respectable" next season. I can easily see them still finishing last place if the sign a Haren or Lohse types. These moves would appease your types, but essentially don't make the team anymore of a guarantee the will be respectable. This team and roster need more then just money thrown at it.

 

You keep saying he has to do something now. But your unwilling to accept that the right moves just might not be there. If you did understand that you would not be banging your ben and cherries drum everyday because there's no new headline.

 

That's another thing, why do you harp on Ben so much when it's plainly obvious he's not the only person making baseball decisions for this franchise? Or do you just have something personal against the guy?

[a700hitter]

Have you looked at the FA market? I mean really looked? There are no options outside of Grienke without some sort of issue or worry. They need a front line pitcher and there is one available. Maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle with Haren types. But even signing a few of those guys is no guarantee they will be "respectable" next season. I can easily see them still finishing last place if the sign a Haren or Lohse types. These moves would appease your types, but essentially don't make the team anymore of a guarantee the will be respectable. This team and roster need more then just money thrown at it.

 

You keep saying he has to do something now. But your unwilling to accept that the right moves just might not be there. If you did understand that you would not be banging your ben and cherries drum everyday because there's no new headline.

 

That's another thing, why do you harp on Ben so much when it's plainly obvious he's not the only person making baseball decisions for this franchise? Or do you just have something personal against the guy?

3 good above average pitchers have already been traded or signed. There are always options, but not if you let everyone beat you to the punch. More pitchers will be signed and/or traded before the off season is concluded. I disagree that we need a top flight pitcher. It would be great to have, but we need guys to eat innings make 30 starts and pitch to a reasonable ERA. We need two reliable, not spectacular, starters. That would stabilize the staff. There is not an unlimited supply of those guys and none will be cheap, but they will not break our bank either. I am not sold on either Lohse or Haren because of health questions, so don't put words in my mouth.

 

As for harping on BC, please stop with that s***. Do you read my posts? I am saying that I am in waiting mode. Nothing has happened yet, so there is nothing to criticize or praise. I am on record several times posting that I think there will be major moves by December 1st.

 

If it is a slow day, I will note that it is a slow day. Is that a terrible slam on someone? Thin skinned people are generally annoying, but people who are thin skinned on the behalf of other people that they don't even know are just ridiculous. Please stop being ridiculous. When and if I decide to slam this GM, it will be more than joking about inactivity.

[Bellhorn04]

Have you looked at the FA market? I mean really looked? There are no options outside of Grienke without some sort of issue or worry. They need a front line pitcher and there is one available. Maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle with Haren types. But even signing a few of those guys is no guarantee they will be "respectable" next season. I can easily see them still finishing last place if the sign a Haren or Lohse types. These moves would appease your types, but essentially don't make the team anymore of a guarantee the will be respectable. This team and roster need more then just money thrown at it.

 

You keep saying he has to do something now. But your unwilling to accept that the right moves just might not be there. If you did understand that you would not be banging your ben and cherries drum everyday because there's no new headline.

 

That's another thing, why do you harp on Ben so much when it's plainly obvious he's not the only person making baseball decisions for this franchise? Or do you just have something personal against the guy?

 

Ben has already made a clear statement that the Red Sox will have a large payroll, meaning they will make some additions, and he has also stated that pitching will be a top priority.

[mvp 78]

Ben has already made a clear statement that the Red Sox will have a large payroll, meaning they will make some additions, and he has also stated that pitching will be a top priority.

 

Clearly they will make some sort of additions. I think some people are seeing too much into what "large" constitutes for payroll purposes. I bet they are probably at 100-110 for payroll at most. That's a shell of what their payroll used to be.

[BSN07]

Clearly they will make some sort of additions. I think some people are seeing too much into what "large" constitutes for payroll purposes. I bet they are probably at 100-110 for payroll at most. That's a shell of what their payroll used to be.

 

I was guessing it be around 120-130M with the ability to add if needed.

[Bellhorn04]

Clearly they will make some sort of additions. I think some people are seeing too much into what "large" constitutes for payroll purposes. I bet they are probably at 100-110 for payroll at most. That's a shell of what their payroll used to be.

 

Ben went as far as saying the Sox would probably have one of the largest payrolls in baseball again. That would have to be significantly more than 110 million. I think it was the Sox FO sending a clear message to the fans that they would be making major additions. Similar to what Lucchino did before the 2011 season, just before the AGon and Crawford moves.

 

Maybe I'm reading too much in, but I think the Sox FO knows that a vastly reduced payroll in 2013 just isn't going to fly with the fans.

[BSN07]

3 good above average pitchers have already been traded or signed. There are always options, but not if you let everyone beat you to the punch. More pitchers will be signed and/or traded before the off season is concluded. I disagree that we need a top flight pitcher. It would be great to have, but we need guys to eat innings make 30 starts and pitch to a reasonable ERA. We need two reliable, not spectacular, starters. That would stabilize the staff. There is not an unlimited supply of those guys and none will be cheap, but they will not break our bank either. I am not sold on either Lohse or Haren because of health questions, so don't put words in my mouth.

 

As for harping on BC, please stop with that s***. Do you read my posts? I am saying that I am in waiting mode. Nothing has happened yet, so there is nothing to criticize or praise. I am on record several times posting that I think there will be major moves by December 1st.

 

If it is a slow day, I will note that it is a slow day. Is that a terrible slam on someone? Thin skinned people are generally annoying, but people who are thin skinned on the behalf of other people that they don't even know are just ridiculous. Please stop being ridiculous. When and if I decide to slam this GM, it will be more than joking about inactivity.

 

I disagree about the pitching staff. Right now I think it consists of 3-4 guys that can throw 190-210 innings at around 4-4.5 ERA. What I don't see is a sure fire stopper that you can bank on going 200+ with more of a 3.00 ERA.

 

They have Pitchers with the possibility of doing that, but none of them are the sure Ace at this time. What they need is an anchor and for Lester and Buchholz to be good mid rotation guys and for Lackey and Doubront to keep them in games and not kill the BP at the back end. Now if they want to go out and get a couple ? guys for depth then sure. But if they are expecting those ? as sure things in the rotation, it's a bad approach IMO.

 

 

As far as the Ben comments go if you were just saying "ho huum it's a slow news day" it be different. But "Another slow day on Cherington Lane" makes it seem a little the other way

 

Besides most moves of note for the Sox in recent memory seem to come over Thanksgiving or after. I just don't see why everyone is surprised they haven't signed anyone. I think if they ahd signed or traded for anyone at this point it would have been more surprising to me at least.

[Rdsxmbnt]

That's right. And I am waiting for Cherington to have his J.D. Drew Grand Slam moment.

 

It happened back in August

[BSN07]

It happened back in August

 

But that doesn't count, it's now, and nothing new has happened

[a700hitter]

It happened back in August

If you think a salary dump without more proves his worth, you have low standards, especially since it propelled us into last place. J.D.'s blast propelled the team into the World Series. I don't see how you can equate the two. Besides, most people credit JH as being the moving force behind that salary dump, not Cherington.

[a700hitter]

I disagree about the pitching staff. Right now I think it consists of 3-4 guys that can throw 190-210 innings at around 4-4.5 ERA. What I don't see is a sure fire stopper that you can bank on going 200+ with more of a 3.00 ERA.

 

They have Pitchers with the possibility of doing that, but none of them are the sure Ace at this time. What they need is an anchor and for Lester and Buchholz to be good mid rotation guys and for Lackey and Doubront to keep them in games and not kill the BP at the back end. Now if they want to go out and get a couple ? guys for depth then sure. But if they are expecting those ? as sure things in the rotation, it's a bad approach IMO.

Other than Lester, we don't have anyone who can be relied upon to go 200 innings, never mind 4 pitchers who can do that. Buchholz still has not topped the 200 inning mark in a season, but I think he is capable of doing it. Are you counting in a post-op Lackey for 200 innings 30 starts and a reasonable ERA. It could happen, but I am not banking on it. Even if he does, that's 3 out of 5. Did you see how Doubront collapsed in August and September? He was horrible. He became terrible after about 110 innings-- much too early to blame fatigue. Maybe the hitters figured out that he can't throw more than 50% of his pitches for strikes. I think we need a couple of solid reliable pitchers. I don't think we can count on more than 2 guys on our roster to fill that bill. Lackey and Doubs can fight it out for the 5th spot.

 

As far as the Ben comments go if you were just saying "ho huum it's a slow news day" it be different. But "Another slow day on Cherington Lane" makes it seem a little the other way

It's hard to attribute intent on the internet because people read stuff and process it through their own filters which are usually off by a mile.

[BSN07]

Other than Lester, we don't have anyone who can be relied upon to go 200 innings, never mind 4 pitchers who can do that. Buchholz still has not topped the 200 inning mark in a season, but I think he is capable of doing it. Are you counting in a post-op Lackey for 200 innings 30 starts and a reasonable ERA. It could happen, but I am not banking on it. Even if he does, that's 3 out of 5. Did you see how Doubront collapsed in August and September? He was horrible. He became terrible after about 110 innings-- much too early to blame fatigue. Maybe the hitters figured out that he can't throw more than 50% of his pitches for strikes. I think we need a couple of solid reliable pitchers. I don't think we can count on more than 2 guys on our roster to fill that bill. Lackey and Doubs can fight it out for the 5th spot.

 

It's hard to attribute intent on the internet because people read stuff and process it through their own filters which are usually off by a mile.

 

Doubront doubled his IP total from the previous season. If you didn't think he would hit a wall at some point your nutty. I see Doubront coming close to 200IP.

 

Lackey is a little harder to gauge but from what I have seen he should be ready to go in ST. So he might, but probably closer to 160-175IP.

 

Lester has proven he can get 200+.

 

Buchholz went to 190 last season, getting 10 more IP is not out of the question.

[a700hitter]

Doubront doubled his IP total from the previous season. If you didn't think he would hit a wall at some point your nutty. I see Doubront coming close to 200IP.

 

Lackey is a little harder to gauge but from what I have seen he should be ready to go in ST. So he might, but probably closer to 160-175IP.

 

Lester has proven he can get 200+.

 

Buchholz went to 190 last season, getting 10 more IP is not out of the question.

If we are lucky, we get a solid 200 inning year out of Doubront or Lackey. Both ain't gonna happen. I'll wager that right here and now. Doubront fell apart at 110 innings-- completely. What makes you think that he can now step it up to 200 innings? I can't see any basis for believing that. Hitters figured the guy out after July. Sit and wait him out. He can't throw strikes consistently.

 

If Lacker or Doubs give us a solid year, we still have 2 huge holes in the rotation which is why I feel strongly that we need two solid starters.

[rjortiz]

Anibal Sanchez would be a great fit.

[Orange Juiced]

Other than Lester, we don't have anyone who can be relied upon to go 200 innings, never mind 4 pitchers who can do that. Buchholz still has not topped the 200 inning mark in a season, but I think he is capable of doing it. Are you counting in a post-op Lackey for 200 innings 30 starts and a reasonable ERA. It could happen, but I am not banking on it. Even if he does, that's 3 out of 5. Did you see how Doubront collapsed in August and September? He was horrible. He became terrible after about 110 innings-- much too early to blame fatigue. Maybe the hitters figured out that he can't throw more than 50% of his pitches for strikes. I think we need a couple of solid reliable pitchers. I don't think we can count on more than 2 guys on our roster to fill that bill. Lackey and Doubs can fight it out for the 5th spot.

 

It's hard to attribute intent on the internet because people read stuff and process it through their own filters which are usually off by a mile.

 

Re: Doubront. I'm not sure what happened to him during his late-July to early-September stretch, because yeah, he was pretty bad then. But it couldn't have been fatigue. His last four starts of the year were very good:

 

4 g, 26.1 ip, 3.08 era, 1.10 whip, 10.6 k/9

 

So at least he ended the season pitching very well, which gives me some reason for optimism with him next year.

[a700hitter]

Re: Doubront. I'm not sure what happened to him during his late-July to early-September stretch, because yeah, he was pretty bad then. But it couldn't have been fatigue. His last four starts of the year were very good:

 

4 g, 26.1 ip, 3.08 era, 1.10 whip, 10.6 k/9

 

So at least he ended the season pitching very well, which gives me some reason for optimism with him next year.

I'd have him fight Lackey for the 5th spot. He went 161 innings with an ERA approaching 5. He was a 5 inning pitcher with a high WHIP who walks 4 guys per 9 innings. He is not a reliable horse, not yet, not by a long shot. He's earned a shot to battle for the 5th spot IMO, nothing more.

[Bellhorn04]

Anibal Sanchez would be a great fit.

 

He would be. But what's the best offer you would make him?

[BSN07]

If we are lucky, we get a solid 200 inning year out of Doubront or Lackey. Both ain't gonna happen. I'll wager that right here and now. Doubront fell apart at 110 innings-- completely. What makes you think that he can now step it up to 200 innings? I can't see any basis for believing that. Hitters figured the guy out after July. Sit and wait him out. He can't throw strikes consistently.

 

If Lacker or Doubs give us a solid year, we still have 2 huge holes in the rotation which is why I feel strongly that we need two solid starters.

 

110 was already 40 more then the previous season, and he got through another 50 IP on top of that. If healthy going up another 20-30 IP is not out of the question.

[rjortiz]

He would be. But what's the best offer you would make him?

 

Probably $52-56 million over four years.

[BSN07]

I'd have him fight Lackey for the 5th spot. He went 161 innings with an ERA approaching 5. He was a 5 inning pitcher with a high WHIP who walks 4 guys per 9 innings. He is not a reliable horse, not yet, not by a long shot. He's earned a shot to battle for the 5th spot IMO, nothing more.

 

Yes because SP typically jump from 70 to 200 IP and become horses over night. Your holding him up to ridiculous standards instead of looking what he actually was able to accomplish last season.

[BSN07]

Probably $52-56 million over four years.

 

He's getting 60M minimum with some estimating he could get close to 100M. He will get 4-6 years at around 15M per.

[Orange Juiced]

I'd have him fight Lackey for the 5th spot. He went 161 innings with an ERA approaching 5. He was a 5 inning pitcher with a high WHIP who walks 4 guys per 9 innings. He is not a reliable horse, not yet, not by a long shot. He's earned a shot to battle for the 5th spot IMO, nothing more.

 

Agreed. It's interesting to look a little more into his numbers though. Here's what he did:

 

Stretch #1 (Apr 9 to Jul 18)

18 g, 102.0 ip, 101 h, 48 er, 38 bb, 99 k, 4.24 era, 1.36 whip, 8.7 k/9

 

Stretch #2 (Jul 23 to Sep 7)

7 g, 32.2 ip, 45 h, 30 er, 20 bb, 37 k, 8.27 era, 1.99 whip, 10.2 k/9

 

Stretch #3 (Sep 13 to Sep 29)

4 g, 26.1 ip, 16 h, 9 er, 13 bb, 31 k, 3.08 era, 1.10 whip, 10.6 k/9

 

So the first big stretch he was solid. Not great, not bad, but definitely better than the average SP in the AL. That second stretch was horrible. But that third stretch he was outstanding.

 

You could really look at him in three ways:

 

View #1 (the whole enchilada). This view holds that he's an average or slightly below average SP in the AL. His full season stats suggest this is the case, as he puts up a below-average ERA+ figure (89).

 

View #2 (they figured him out). This view holds that he was ok those first 18 games, but the last 11 they had him figured out and he struggled to the tune of a 5.95 era and 1.59 whip.

 

View #3 (that middle stretch was a dip in an otherwise very encouraging first full year in the majors). This view holds that, for a rookie, he shows a lot of promise. If you take his first and third stretches and combine them, here's what those 22 games look like:

 

128.1 ip, 117 h, 57 er, 51 bb, 130 k, 3.99 era, 1.31 whip, 9.2 k/9

 

And thus that bad second stretch of 7 games is seen as a predictable low that most rookies experience, but that he bounced back nicely at the end of the year.

 

I happen to subscribe to view #3. He has terrific stuff (very good curve plus a 95 mph fastball), and he strikes out a lot of batters (excellent k/9 rate). If he is controlling his pitches, he's downright nasty. Remember, he was just a 24-year old rookie this past year. There's a TON of room for improvement, but we've already seen very encouraging signs from him, and there's lots of reasons to be optimistic about his future as a starting pitcher in the majors.

[BSN07]

Agreed. It's interesting to look a little more into his numbers though. Here's what he did:

 

Stretch #1 (Apr 9 to Jul 18)

18 g, 102.0 ip, 101 h, 48 er, 38 bb, 99 k, 4.24 era, 1.36 whip, 8.7 k/9

 

Stretch #2 (Jul 23 to Sep 7)

7 g, 32.2 ip, 45 h, 30 er, 20 bb, 37 k, 8.27 era, 1.99 whip, 10.2 k/9

 

Stretch #3 (Sep 13 to Sep 29)

4 g, 26.1 ip, 16 h, 9 er, 13 bb, 31 k, 3.08 era, 1.10 whip, 10.6 k/9

 

So the first big stretch he was solid. Not great, not bad, but definitely better than the average SP in the AL. That second stretch was horrible. But that third stretch he was outstanding.

 

You could really look at him in three ways:

 

View #1 (the whole enchilada). This view holds that he's an average or slightly below average SP in the AL. His full season stats suggest this is the case, as he puts up a below-average ERA+ figure (89).

 

View #2 (they figured him out). This view holds that he was ok those first 18 games, but the last 11 they had him figured out and he struggled to the tune of a 5.95 era and 1.59 whip.

 

View #3 (that middle stretch was a dip in an otherwise very encouraging first full year in the majors). This view holds that, for a rookie, he shows a lot of promise. If you take his first and third stretches and combine them, here's what those 22 games look like:

 

128.1 ip, 117 h, 57 er, 51 bb, 130 k, 3.99 era, 1.31 whip, 9.2 k/9

 

And thus that bad second stretch of 7 games is seen as a predictable low that most rookies experience, but that he bounced back nicely at the end of the year.

 

I happen to subscribe to view #3. He has terrific stuff (very good curve plus a 95 mph fastball), and he strikes out a lot of batters (excellent k/9 rate). If he is controlling his pitches, he's downright nasty. Remember, he was just a 24-year old rookie this past year. There's a TON of room for improvement, but we've already seen very encouraging signs from him, and there's lots of reasons to be optimistic about his future as a starting pitcher in the majors.

 

Stop making sense please...

[rjortiz]

He's getting 60M minimum with some estimating he could get close to 100M. He will get 4-6 years at around 15M per.

 

He's not getting $100 million.

[jung]

Is the question whether we should get into a bidding war that could end up at 6/$100 for Sanchez?

 

I don't think he has done anything that warrants 6/$100. There is a huge dif between 6/$100 and 4/$60. I can see it getting to 4/$60 but if somebody wants to give him 6/$100 I don't think I could justify being that team.

 

No telling what he really wants but in his position I would probably value term. So just playing with numbers a little.....if a four year deal was not getting it done meaning I could not manage anything more than being in the game at 4 years I would probably go to 5 years and try to kick out the teams that get scared off at 5 years and then try to leak money back into the deal. I would probably end up done at 5/$80 offering him incentives in the deal at that point so that he had a way to make more if I am still battling with somebody and still feeling like I want to get it done with this guy. If I get outbid.....I get outbid.