Rotation

[a700hitter]

I happen to subscribe to view #3. He has terrific stuff (very good curve plus a 95 mph fastball), and he strikes out a lot of batters (excellent k/9 rate). If he is controlling his pitches, he's downright nasty. Remember, he was just a 24-year old rookie this past year. There's a TON of room for improvement, but we've already seen very encouraging signs from him, and there's lots of reasons to be optimistic about his future as a starting pitcher in the majors.

I also subscribe to this view, and it is because of that final stretch that I would give him the opportunity to battle with Lackey for a rotation spot. He showed promise in his rookie year, but he is not a lock 200 inning guy. This season he needs to prove that he is not a fluke and to improve on his game. He is yet to prove that he is a solid #3 or4 guy for 200 innings with a 4 ERA.

[Behindenemylines]

The Sox SP staff as of now includes Buchholtz, Lester, Doubront and Lackey. On paper it is the weakest in the AL East. Based on last years results that is proven. Of the four pitchers I don't know if you can say with confidence that you know what to expect from any of them. SP is still a major need for the Sox and they need to start making some noise in this area or 2013 will be a repeat of 2012. There is a need of two solid arms and I don't know if you can count on any of the kids to be ready for 2013.

[BSN07]

IMO there is one spot open. If healthy Lackey is pitching. Doubront earned a spot last season. Lester and Buchholz are obviously in the rotation.

 

I think people are over looking Doubront. I wouldn't be surprised to see being one of the better pitchers in the rotation if healthy. I'm a little concerned there since he had such a big jump in IP last season.

[Palodios]

Kyle Lohse really scares me. He is not worth the 40-60 million he will probably receive. He was a miserable starter when he pitched in the American League.

 

2001-- 5.68 ERA

2002-- 4.23 ERA

2003 -- 4.61 ERA

2004 -- 5.34 ERA

2005 -- 4.18 ERA

2006 -- 7.07 ERA

 

Does that seem like a guy worth multiple years? If they let Guthrie go for 3/25, and pick up Lohse for 4/60 they will seriously, seriously regret it.

[jung]

Thanks for reminding me Pal. I had not really remembered that 7.07

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, transitioning from the NL to the AL can be deadly for a lot of pitchers. Dempster posted a 5.09 ERA with the Rangers after a 2.25 ERA this year with the Cubs. Oswalt's AL debut resulted in a 5.80 ERA compared to a career 3.21 mark in the NL.

[Behindenemylines]

Next to Greike, Sanchez is the best option from the pitching FA. Pitchers that have done well in the NL, but struggle with inter-league play I worry about. The AL East is a beast for starting pitchers. The teams face themselves so much there isn't anything that hitters don't know about pitchers.

[Rdsxmbnt]

He is yet to prove that he is a solid #3 or4 guy for 200 innings with a 4 ERA.

 

Your expectations for what a good rotation looks like are extremely out of whack. There were only 30 pitchers in all baseball last year who topped 200 innings, and only 12 were in the AL.

 

Doubront would slot into the 4/5 slot, theres no way the expectation for that slot should be a top 30 pitcher in baseball.

[BSN07]

Your expectations for what a good rotation looks like are extremely out of whack. There were only 30 pitchers in all baseball last year who topped 200 innings, and only 12 were in the AL.

 

Doubront would slot into the 4/5 slot, theres no way the expectation for that slot should be a top 30 pitcher in baseball.

 

lol I can't wait for how he's going to spin this

[BSN07]

Aren't his very much publicized anxiety issues the reason signing Greinke supposedly scares some big market teams?

 

I've always said it's a small concern at the least and I did use the word "gamble" when talking about getting Grienke. But he seem's to have matured and found a way to cope with those issues. He's also stated that big markets don't intimidate him anymore. He seemed to handle LA(yes it's not Boston but still a large media market) well. And the Dodgers(yes I know the Dodgers seems to be acting without worrying about consequences) don't see it as an issue.

 

I see his baggage as less scary then say Hamilton's and I'm on record as being ok with bringing in Hamilton(at the right length, nothing over 5).

 

In the end I have a hard time seeing him being in anything other then a Dodger uniform next season.

 

If that's the case my next preferred action would be to go get Haren. And possibly a couple other guys on minor league deals and the usual ST invites.

 

Lester

Buchholz

Haren

Doubront

Lackey

 

It's respectable if everyone pitchers near career averages. Also leaves flexibility moving forward in case a SP that is not know/available at this time becomes available. I'm reluctant for them to lock into Sanchez long term unless it's like 4/60M. That's just how I view it now, the situation could look different in a few weeks

[example1]

Your expectations for what a good rotation looks like are extremely out of whack. There were only 30 pitchers in all baseball last year who topped 200 innings, and only 12 were in the AL.

 

Doubront would slot into the 4/5 slot, theres no way the expectation for that slot should be a top 30 pitcher in baseball.

 

So in other words a reasonable request for a team with the resources of the sox, in a good year, would be for two pitchers to have 200 IP,

And that would mean they had two horses relative to the rest of the league. Asking for three is really asking for a lot... Good point.

[jung]

Surely you would expect innings to scale down as opposed to dropping off the map. You would like your ace to top 200. Your 3 would likely make you happy at somewhere between 180 and 200. You would likely be OK if you four gave you something over 165. You would be tickled pink with a 5 at anything over 150 or at 150. Your pen is going to work harder at the bottom of the rotation and that is how it should be.

[Rdsxmbnt]

So in other words a reasonable request for a team with the resources of the sox, in a good year, would be for two pitchers to have 200 IP,

And that would mean they had two horses relative to the rest of the league. Asking for three is really asking for a lot... Good point.

 

Yes this exactly. I think given the league differences it would best best to compare the Sox to AL rotations.

 

Rangers:

Harrison - 213 IP

Darvish - 191 IP

Holland - 175 IP

Next closest was 123 IP

 

Oakland:

Milone - 190 IP

Parker - 181 IP

Colon - 150 IP

Next closest was 111 IP

 

Yankees:

Kuroda - 219 IP

Sabathia - 200 IP

Hughes - 191 IP

Nova - 170 IP

Next closest was 107 IP

 

Orioles:

Chen - 192 IP

Next closest was 133 IP

 

Tigers:

Verlander - 238 IP

Scherzer - 187 IP

Porcello - 176 IP

Fister - 161 IP

Next closest was 99 IP

 

 

Those are the 5 AL playoff teams. Only the Yankees had 2 200 IP guys. Most teams had one 200 IP and another close, but the rest of the rotation is fairly limited. Doubront was at 160 IP this year and could probably be bumped to 170-180 and be right in line with these rotations. The point isnt to have 5 horses but rather one or two and DEPTH. Cherrington has some sick young arms almost ready to come up in De La Rosa/Webster/Barnes/Morales and if they can have Lester/Buchholz be those 190 IP+ guys then we are getting closer.

[a700hitter]

Yes this exactly. I think given the league differences it would best best to compare the Sox to AL rotations.

 

Rangers:

Harrison - 213 IP

Darvish - 191 IP

Holland - 175 IP

Next closest was 123 IP

 

Oakland:

Milone - 190 IP

Parker - 181 IP

Colon - 150 IP

Next closest was 111 IP

 

Yankees:

Kuroda - 219 IP

Sabathia - 200 IP

Hughes - 191 IP

Nova - 170 IP

Next closest was 107 IP

 

Orioles:

Chen - 192 IP

Next closest was 133 IP

 

Tigers:

Verlander - 238 IP

Scherzer - 187 IP

Porcello - 176 IP

Fister - 161 IP

Next closest was 99 IP

 

 

Those are the 5 AL playoff teams. Only the Yankees had 2 200 IP guys. Most teams had one 200 IP and another close, but the rest of the rotation is fairly limited. Doubront was at 160 IP this year and could probably be bumped to 170-180 and be right in line with these rotations. The point isnt to have 5 horses but rather one or two and DEPTH. Cherrington has some sick young arms almost ready to come up in De La Rosa/Webster/Barnes/Morales and if they can have Lester/Buchholz be those 190 IP+ guys then we are getting closer.

The Red Sox need reliable innings eaters at the bottom of the rotation, because they are weak at the top of the rotation. We do not have a #1 stopper horse. We just don't. They need to compensate for the weak top of the order with a stronger bottom than most teams. This will not break their bank, so why is it unreasonable?

[SoxSport]

The Sox were rumored to have made inquiries about Gio, but you are probably right. Cherries is the J.D. Drew of GMs. He watches a lot of called strike threes right down the middle of the plate.

 

It will be Henry's call for the major FAs. Ben takes care of the minor stuff--and is getting help from James and others. You figure James is playing a role in the Gomes and other signings.

 

I agree Cherington's negotiating abilities are in question. He can't have been very aggressive with the Marlins. Looks to me like that Toronto GM ate his lunch, taking all those players for prospects. Ben misjudged the situation, from his statement that he didn't realize the deal would be so big.

[BSN07]

It will be Henry's call for the major FAs. Ben takes care of the minor stuff--and is getting help from James and others. You figure James is playing a role in the Gomes and other signings.

 

I agree Cherington's negotiating abilities are in question. He can't have been very aggressive with the Marlins. Looks to me like that Toronto GM ate his lunch, taking all those players for prospects. Ben misjudged the situation, from his statement that he didn't realize the deal would be so big.

 

How is passing on a bad deal getting your lunch eaten?

[Rdsxmbnt]

It will be Henry's call for the major FAs. Ben takes care of the minor stuff--and is getting help from James and others. You figure James is playing a role in the Gomes and other signings.

 

I agree Cherington's negotiating abilities are in question. He can't have been very aggressive with the Marlins. Looks to me like that Toronto GM ate his lunch, taking all those players for prospects. Ben misjudged the situation, from his statement that he didn't realize the deal would be so big.

 

This is just so false all around. Why the hell would the Red Sox participate in the FLA deal by taking on an absurd amount of bad contracts after they just did the reverse trade back in August???

[a700hitter]

How is passing on a bad deal getting your lunch eaten?

The Red Sox were clearly interested in Johnson. He didn't get his lunch eaten because he passed on a big deal. His lunch was eaten, because Johnson (a guy Cherries was interested in) was in the deal. Cherries should have locked down Johnson before the other deal happened. From his statement, he was caught unaware of what his competitor was doing. This is not the first time that he has been caught unaware. That is why his lunch was eaten. You act like there was a big deal on the table and he passed on it. That's not what happen. Guys he wanted got traded before he got off his ass and got into serious negotiations. He didn't know what was going on as evidenced by his own statement.

[a700hitter]

This is just so false all around. Why the hell would the Red Sox participate in the FLA deal by taking on an absurd amount of bad contracts after they just did the reverse trade back in August???

That's not the point he was making. There was no big deal on the table for the Sox. Cherries didn't know about a big deal until it was announced. If he wanted Johnson, he should have locked him down before the Jays negotiation got to that point. He didn't and he missed out.

[example1]

The Red Sox need reliable innings eaters at the bottom of the rotation, because they are weak at the top of the rotation. We do not have a #1 stopper horse. We just don't. They need to compensate for the weak top of the order with a stronger bottom than most teams. This will not break their bank, so why is it unreasonable?

 

I guess it is unreasonable because the very definition of a 200 IP pitcher is someone who is effecient and effective enough to get through 200 IP within an allotted number of pitches.

 

I agree about needing an innings eater, but 200 IP guy is probably too much to ask out of Doubront and certainly too much for a #3 or #4 pitcher in the current league. If Doubront got 175 IP of effective pitching it would be greatly helpful to this team. I suspect you aren't interested in arguing 200 IP vs 175, so I think your general point stands that they need to have a good deep rotation (i.e., very talented #3 or #4).

[Rdsxmbnt]

That's not the point he was making. There was no big deal on the table for the Sox. Cherries didn't know about a big deal until it was announced. If he wanted Johnson, he should have locked him down before the Jays negotiation got to that point. He didn't and he missed out.

 

There's not enough information out there to possibly know this. Where are the facts that he really wanted Johnson? And don't you think the Marlins would call the Red Sox up and tell them they are about to deal Johnson to a division rival/make your best offer now?

[User Name]

There's not enough information out there to possibly know this. Where are the facts that he really wanted Johnson? And don't you think the Marlins would call the Red Sox up and tell them they are about to deal Johnson to a division rival/make your best offer now?

 

Apparently assumption and biased opinion is the same as fact these days. Just read any post by a700 or SoxSport if you don't believe me. (Include iortiz and his support for absolutely everything a700 says plus his own assumptions in there too).

[a700hitter]

I guess it is unreasonable because the very definition of a 200 IP pitcher is someone who is effecient and effective enough to get through 200 IP within an allotted number of pitches.

 

I agree about needing an innings eater, but 200 IP guy is probably too much to ask out of Doubront and certainly too much for a #3 or #4 pitcher in the current league. If Doubront got 175 IP of effective pitching it would be greatly helpful to this team. I suspect you aren't interested in arguing 200 IP vs 175, so I think your general point stands that they need to have a good deep rotation (i.e., very talented #3 or #4).

Edwin Jackson logs 180 -200 innings like clockwork. He's the kind of guy that would help at the back end of the rotation. He's not a star and he will not break the bank, but he is reliable. He's not a guy who we have to think whether he has potential to go 200 inn. He does it year in and year out. If we got him and Haren, we'd be set for the rotation. I don't see how that is cost prohibitive or unreasonable. The stronger bottom of the rotation would make up for the lack of an ace. Right now we have:

 

Buchholz

Lester

Doubront (IMO he is not a #3)

Lackey (He is a big ?)

TBA

 

This screams for 2 pitchers. They don't need 5 guys to pitch 200 innings. I am not saying that, but if we get 2 guys that have that capability to pitch 200 we'll have 4 guys that are capable of going 200. Injuries and other stuff happens so we would be very lucky if 3 of them logged 200. If 5 guys logged 200 innings, we'd win the division going away.

[a700hitter]

There's not enough information out there to possibly know this. Where are the facts that he really wanted Johnson? And don't you think the Marlins would call the Red Sox up and tell them they are about to deal Johnson to a division rival/make your best offer now?

Then why was Cherington surprised at the deal if he was plugged into the process at the end? That makes no sense.

[iortiz]

Edwin Jackson logs 180 -200 innings like clockwork. He's the kind of guy that would help at the back end of the rotation. He's not a star and he will not break the bank, but he is reliable. He's not a guy who we have to think whether he has potential to go 200 inn. He does it year in and year out. If we got him and Haren, we'd be set for the rotation. I don't see how that is cost prohibitive or unreasonable. The stronger bottom of the rotation would make up for the lack of an ace. Right now we have:

 

Buchholz

Lester

Doubront (IMO he is not a #3)

Lackey (He is a big ?)

TBA

 

This screams for 2 pitchers. They don't need 5 guys to pitch 200 innings. I am not saying that, but if we get 2 guys that have that capability to pitch 200 we'll have 4 guys that are capable of going 200. Injuries and other stuff happens so we would be very lucky if 3 of them logged 200. If 5 guys logged 200 innings, we'd win the division going away.

 

Totally agree. You need 2. Problem is that some already signed/traded and the few available will cost you tons since the pitching market has been reduced... This is why IMO you have to move fast and smart as GM specially when you have key and a lot of holes to fill.

 

We'll see how it ends though, hopefully our FO has everything figured out.

[BSN07]

Apparently assumption and biased opinion is the same as fact these days. Just read any post by a700 or SoxSport if you don't believe me. (Include iortiz and his support for absolutely everything a700 says plus his own assumptions in there too).

 

Totally agree. You need 2. Problem is that some already signed/traded and the few available will cost you tons since the pitching market has been reduced... This is why IMO you have to move fast and smart as GM specially when you have key and a lot of holes to fill.

 

We'll see how it ends though, hopefully our FO has everything figured out.

 

I lol'd

[User Name]

I lol'd

 

You beat me to it. Well played.

[iortiz]

I lol'd

 

Hard to disagree when you simply right.

[a700hitter]

UN doesn't get that this is all opinion. There is no science here. If it was science, we'd know the outcome before the season started. That would take all the fun out of it.

[iortiz]

UN doesn't get that this is all opinion. There is no science here. If it was science, we'd know the outcome before the season started. That would take all the fun out of it.

 

Been always his problem. He thinks that all we say are facts. He does not understand, it is all about opinions. Certainly, some are facts but mostly are OPINIONS. BTW I wrote IMO. Hahahaha.

 

Sure! We see things eye to eye most of the times but we disagree at times; thing is that we do not need to insult or make the othe change a point of view or opinion. It's called prudence.

 

...again and as I said, hard to disagree with someone (you) you think (I) is right. Plain and Simple.