Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

V-Mart was one of the better hitters in the league for a few years there. His overall value was far superior to Napoli's in his peak seasons. Napoli has tremendous power and would be a good addition nonetheless. I just hope the Sox don't pay Napoli as if he's a 3/4 time switch hitting catcher. 4 years, 40-45m maybe.

 

Honestly, I don't think I would have a problem giving him a contract similar to V-mart. 4/60 seems like an overpay, but 4/52 is not bad at all for a guy averaging 30 home runs per 150 games. He's going to get paid, but I think he's one of the better options out there.

[BSN07]

Mike Napoli met with Red Sox management and ownership this weekend, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe and Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald (Twitter links). Silverman added the meeting took place yesterday and the Red Sox contingent included owner John Henry, manager John Farrell, and GM Ben Cherington.

[RedSoxNC84]

If the meeting took place with JH there, I think that means Napoli will be in Sox uniform pretty soon.

[SoxFanForsyth]

 

Also said Napoli wants 4 years and the Sox are willing to go 5.

 

Sounds like a lock. Excellent news. Now go get Hamilton and Garza and you've got a contender.

[RedSoxNC84]

Even though I'm against the long contracts, I wouldn't really be opposed to seeing the Sox go 5 years on Napoli, or 5 years on Hamilton.

 

Hamilton has concerns, but I'd still rather see him starting than Daniel Nava.

[mvp 78]

 

Also said Napoli wants 4 years and the Sox are willing to go 5.

 

Sounds like a lock. Excellent news. Now go get Hamilton and Garza and you've got a contender.

 

They'd need more than that to make a contender for 2013.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They'd need more than that to make a contender for 2013.

 

True - we need 1 more SP, but offensively we would be set.

 

Ellsbury - Pedroia - Hamilton - Ortiz - Napoli - Middlebrooks - Lavarnway/Ross - Gomes/Kalish - Iglesias

 

Go out and sign Sanchez and trade for Garza and you've got a contender.

 

Bullpen should be in solid shape as is with De La Rosa, Taz, Bailey, Aceves, Bard, Miller, and Breslow.

 

But you're right, they'd need 1 more guy who can give them a sub 4 ERA.

[mvp 78]

I'm fine with the BP as is.

 

In your rotation, is Lackey or Doubront 5?

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

 

Also said Napoli wants 4 years and the Sox are willing to go 5.

 

Sounds like a lock. Excellent news. Now go get Hamilton and Garza and you've got a contender.

 

Hope they stay away from spitting machine Garza. I'd like to see Hamilton on the team, but some posters here are blowing the drug/alcohol addiction out of proportion. It's a concern definitely but he's proven himself for a while, I think they should cut him some slack.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm fine with the BP as is.

 

In your rotation, is Lackey or Doubront 5?

 

I have Lackey as my #5. I'm expecting a 2010 season from him. 200+ innings, 4.2-4.4 era. Really, all you can ask for from your #5.

 

I think Doubront gets dealt before next year myself. Perhaps with Salty for Niese, or Garza + 1, or for a SP that is being shopped very quietly.

[jung]

The Sox may be forced to it but if they only sign one arm, they will just be to thin in the rotation to be a legitimate contender in 2013. Lackey has to come back and perform his first year out of TJ , Lester has to return to form, Buch has to build on his 2012 and go 30 starts and at least 180 innings. The surest thing would be Felix doing the job of a 5. Everything else is a question mark. So having Napoli and Hamilton might be fun for the fans but if they go into the season that thin in the rotation, Lackey, Lester, Buch, Felix and Mystery Guest and I guess Frankie waiting in the wings I doubt they will go anywhere in 2013. Maybe that is fine but making the case that we should sign Napoli and Hamilton because that plus one pitcher makes us a contender for the division in 2013...well....I think that is wishful thinking. We just won't have enough quality arms and will be relying to heavily on guys that will all have to turn their question marks into + signs. Usually some will and some won't. It is rare to see that many question marks all turn into + signs. If we sign one arm we are one injury away from inserting Frankie into the rotation...OK I guess but I just don't think that the remaining rotation arms will likely be reliable, stable and solid enough to get away with that.

 

The arms we could get this year are either guys closer to the top of the rotation that have potential "issues". Maybe Grienke is in that category or we are talking about guys that are maybe a solid rotation 3. Since nobody is really talking about getting a real stud for the rotation this year as that looks like it would be very difficult, what we would end up with looks like a middle of the pack rotation at best.

 

You could make the case that signing bats and one arm this year sets them up to figure out the pitching by 2014. That is a plausible argument. However I think arguing for signing these guys cause they will make us a contender in 2013 is as I said before, wishful thinking. It could be a good way to set up for 2014 though.

[Lord Snow]

I have Lackey as my #5. I'm expecting a 2010 season from him. 200+ innings, 4.2-4.4 era. Really, all you can ask for from your #5.

 

I think Doubront gets dealt before next year myself. Perhaps with Salty for Niese, or Garza + 1, or for a SP that is being shopped very quietly.

 

 

Its wrong to expect 200 innings out of John Lackey. He is coming off MAJOR surgery, at a relatively advanced age to have had TJ. Most of the guys who have success after TJ are in their early-to-mid 20s at the time of the surgery, Lackey is what, 33 or 34?

 

I don't expect him to make it through the whole season in the rotation. Nor would I be surprised to see him make 6 starts and pitch 30 innings this season and spend most of it on the DL.

 

200 innings is a tall order for a guy in his mid-30s coming back from having his elbow reconstructed.

[Lord Snow]

Napoli for 5 years is a bad move. Besides the fact that they put a Red Sox uniform on a Red Sox killer I don't like the idea of signing him to a contract longer than 3 years.

 

Numbers haven't really been thrown around, but guaranteeing more than $40M to Mike Napoli isn't a move that I'm happy with as a fan.

 

This is a guy who hit .227 in 2012 and .238 in 2010 but had a career year in 2011 which he is unlikely to repeat as it was a massive outlier from his career numbers.

 

If the Sox go 5-years $50M or higher on Napoli I think I'll vomit. I don't like seeing .230 hitters come to the plate every third inning and I don't want to see it for half a decade.

 

What is he worth? I'd say about 3-years $33-36M.

[seabeachfred]

If the meeting took place with JH there, I think that means Napoli will be in Sox uniform pretty soon.

 

Please NC84, be careful with what you say. The last time Henry got in deep over a negotiation with a FA was in the Fall of 2008 when we seemed to be in front for Mark Teixeira, remember? In two days, the talks ended and he soon signed with the Yankees. I hope the script is different this time around. I want to clear something up on Napoli too. I don't think he is some superstar who will make the team stalwarts in the league, but the picking are slim and he is one of the best ones out there. Teams are now starting to sign their key players long term. I remember a thread last fall when it was said that there would be some great pitchers like Hamels and Cain being FA after 2012 only to have their respective teams sign them to long term contracts. What's out there is what's out there and I'd rather get some of the better ones than take a chance in late January or Feb. and start picking up the excess garbage from the dumpster.

[jacksonianmarch]

Those who are counting on Lackey could be disappointed. He has to ramp up without a setback, which isnt a guarantee. And expecting 200IP out of him is crazy. He's a wild card

[Palodios]

Lillibridge was outrighted to AAA, and is now a free agent. I wonder if he'd be willing to come back and play shortstop.

[jung]

Well nobody has a 5 that goes 200 innings but whether Lackey is the 5 or not, I think there is little chance that we see 200 innings out of him in 2013. Lester is so far the only guy we have that looks like he could go 200 innings and we would not be surprised at that. Lester could always go 200 innings....the issue this year will be whether he can recover enough of his ability so that he stays in games long enough to go 200. In truth though even at 200, if that is the best on the staff you are already starting to leave innings on the plate for the pen.

 

If Buch goes 180 I would be OK with that and totally surprised if he goes 200. I would not count on Lackey for more than 150 if that. Felix might be ready to go somewhere between 150-175. Hopefully, Mystery Guest is at least a 180 kind of guy. That is probably not enough innings out of the rotation but unless Mystery Guest is some stud, I don't see how I can realistically expect more than that.

[SoxSport]

The latest tweets I'm seeing is that Napoli didn't get an offer from Henry et al. A previous post here said he wants 4 years and they were willing to go 5? Doesn't make a lot of sense. I've seen they were willing to go 3 years. Maybe they figure Texas won't give him an offer, and he'll come back. Maybe they are saving their money for Hamilton. Napoli is weak defensively, and maybe with Gomes' signing, they figure they don't want another weak D player.

 

One thing that strikes me is Cafardo's column today on going after Hamilton or Mauer. Cafardo is suspected to have an in--probably Lucchino. He has been right before on Valentine. He might be right on Hamilton. Or maybe Mauer, though less likely.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Jen Royle tweeted out the 5 year thing, but she has since deleted the tweet. Not sure what's going on w that

[SoxSport]

Hamilton has concerns, but I'd still rather see him starting than Daniel Nava.

 

Nava is slotted in LF, platooning with Gomes. RF is the open spot--Kalish right now. Maybe Hamilton or Swisher or Ross.

[jung]

Well the "Sox willing to go 5, Napoli willing to take 4 thing did not make sense". I am not sure what that tweet was trying to accomplish either.

 

A little surprised if in fact the Sox did not make Napoli any offer at all. It would certainly suggest that they are going to run at Hamilton. I have not believed that they would run at both and as my post early suggested, why the heck would you overpay for Napoli when you have the opportunity to overpay for Hamilton. Interesting that Henry showed up for that meeting. Wonder if he was simply looking to gain as much intelligence as he could about Napoli and about the Rangers generally including the aforementioned Mr Hamilton. No telling what information might fall out of a meeting like that intended or not.

 

As much as I like Nava, I cannot believe that the Sox are going to be satisfied with Nava platooning in LF. Nava is not a platoon player. Nava is a backup and that is it. That said if they are satisfied with Nava platooning in LF maybe that is a statement on how the Sox really feel about 2013.

[RedSoxNC84]

Nava is slotted in LF, platooning with Gomes. RF is the open spot--Kalish right now. Maybe Hamilton or Swisher or Ross.

 

It was more or less a figure of speech. I'd rather see someone like Hamilton start, than have to see a platoon with Nava, etc.

[BSN07]

If the Sox get 150 IP out of Lackey this year it will be a plus. They will baby him so he comes back looking strong this season in hopes to build some trade value(at least enough to not have to eat a major chink of the $, I'm sure they would have to eat some) and they can get his meatball ass out of town. That would be the last of the back fired "splash" moves from the last spending spree. I can dream right?

[jung]

I think it likely now that Napoli has been in and out of town that the Sox will make a very serious run at Hamilton, will try to make runs at the short timer, pitching options out there and/or will package up Salty and God only knows who else in an effort to bring in a pitcher or two.

 

The roster will end up being the usual suspects plus some of the young guys who will actually play this year instead of riding the pine. Could be a fun year with Hamilton and Ortiz right in the middle of the lineup. Hamilton will certainly out-slug that fraud AGons. They will be fun to watch I think, could even surprise a few people...maybe even me.

 

I am not going to get my hopes up preferring to be pleasantly surprised instead of disappointed.

[Station 13]

Lillibridge was outrighted to AAA, and is now a free agent. I wonder if he'd be willing to come back and play shortstop.

 

I just threw up.

[BSN07]

I just threw up.

 

 

Iggy is far better option at this point over Lillibridge. At least Iggy has potential. Lillibridge is what he is. If he's your starting SS your totally boned. Hell I'd rush Bogaerts to the Majors before I went to Lillibridge.

[jung]

Lillibridge???? What happend...did our resident bat boy decide to retire? I could see Lillibridge in that role.

[Station 13]

As far as our pitching is concern...

 

I think we'll get as follow

 

Lester - 200 inning

Buchholz - 150+

Doubront - 150 +

Lackey - 150 + (this guy had more time off thanks to both off-season when he had TJS and his 'rehab' off-season)

FA - 100+

 

That's a lot of innings where the slack need to pick up. Both Doubront and Buchholz has a ton of injuries every year to be counted on. I would be willing to deal one of them for Alex Gordon from the Royals if KC put him up for trade.

 

There is clearly a need to get a horse in the rotation. The Phillies might need to part one of their older aces if it wants to sign Bourne or Upton. In that case I would ask about Halladay or Lee. Probably the former as he's my favorite starter in baseball. And under contract just 1 more year. He's got the right attitude and work ethics to succeed here. I think he will be an effective starter to his late 30's.

 

As far as depth in the system, I think it's better with Webster and De La Rosa in AAA by mid-season. I expect both to make some impact to this club with their calls up. Kinda like Tazawa did in 2009, made 4 spot starts, beating the Tigers and Yankees. We'll certainly take a few starts like that from them both.

[BSN07]

The Kansas City Royals are pushing hard to contend in 2013, considering almost every option to upgrade their pitching staff. And that includes trading the best hitting prospect in baseball. In their search for a top-of-the-rotation starter, the Royals have dangled outfielder Wil Myers, the consensus 2012 minor league player of the year, two sources told Yahoo! Sports. While the Royals have designated Myers off-limits for anything other than pitching, teams with frontline starters understand Kansas City is desperate to add another pitcher after re-signing Jeremy Guthrie and trading for Ervin Santana

 

I wonder if they would be interested in Buchholz

[BSN07]

Some agents think offering four years could help get a deal done. "Nobody is giving him more than four years," one agent told Olney.

 

that quote is about Hamilton. I really like Hamilton on a 4 year deal. That is something I hope the Sox are all over. Problem is I see a lot of teams being interested in him on a 4 year deal. I could see a 4/110M deal. My guess is it gets pushed to 5. Still a 5/125=135M deal isn't bad.