Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[jung]

It might get pushed to 5 years on Hamilton but I bet the teams interested in him will first try upping the per annum on 4 years until that negotiating effort runs out of gas or is successful with some teams then going to 5 years.

 

There is only a limited number of teams that can play here anyway. 5 years might knock what few there are out. The problem with it is that offering 4 probably means you think the risk on 3 is not that great and you are willing to eat a year. That makes 5 tough but for all we know, maybe upping the deal at 4 years will also knock the same competitors out of the running.

 

Still wonder how pissed off the Players Association is going to get over the Rangers publicly announcing that they would not offer Hamilton more than a 3 year deal.

[Lord Snow]

If the Sox get 150 IP out of Lackey this year it will be a plus. They will baby him so he comes back looking strong this season in hopes to build some trade value(at least enough to not have to eat a major chink of the $, I'm sure they would have to eat some) and they can get his meatball ass out of town. That would be the last of the back fired "splash" moves from the last spending spree. I can dream right?

 

The Sox aren't going to want to trade Lackey. If he reestablishes value (e.g. proves to be a pitcher who can go 6-7 innings with a sub-4 ERA consistently) then we are going to need him more than any player(s) we could trade him for.

 

Furthermore, despite the fan base's hatred of Lackey (for obvious reasons) word is that he is a pretty good teammate and clubhouse guy.

 

150 innings would be great out of Lackey, but I've got major concerns about him, at his age, and coming off TJ. I wouldn't be surprised if he only makes 5 appearances this season.

[jung]

I am thinking Lackey stands a decent chance at 150 innings and/or 20+ starts because he will get a full ST and all the time he has used to ramp up to that ST. However I think it highly unlikely that he could do more than that. Of course it could be much worse. Without knowing who the Mystery Guest pitcher or pitchers that they bring in will be I think it likely that the Sox rotation is once again going to leave a bunch of innings out there for the bullpen to pitch.

[seabeachfred]

I think it likely now that Napoli has been in and out of town that the Sox will make a very serious run at Hamilton, will try to make runs at the short timer, pitching options out there and/or will package up Salty and God only knows who else in an effort to bring in a pitcher or two.

 

The roster will end up being the usual suspects plus some of the young guys who will actually play this year instead of riding the pine. Could be a fun year with Hamilton and Ortiz right in the middle of the lineup. Hamilton will certainly out-slug that fraud AGons. They will be fun to watch I think, could even surprise a few people...maybe even me.

 

I am not going to get my hopes up preferring to be pleasantly surprised instead of disappointed.

 

What I'm afraid of is that Henry might once again become too clever by half and wind up losing out on both Napoli and Hamilton. I have as little confidence in is baseball acumen as I do Cherington's and that confidence equals less than zero. Very disappointed that Prune Face didn't at least offer Mike a contract offer of some kind. I don't like where this is going---and we still need a first baseman not named Loney or Gomez.

[SoxSport]

What I'm afraid of is that Henry might once again become too clever by half and wind up losing out on both Napoli and Hamilton. I have as little confidence in is baseball acumen as I do Cherington's and that confidence equals less than zero. Very disappointed that Prune Face didn't at least offer Mike a contract offer of some kind. I don't like where this is going---and we still need a first baseman not named Loney or Gomez.

 

My hunch is Lucchino wants Hamilton--to sell tickets. Cafardo has been promoting Hamilton just like he promoted Valentine--and V was Lucchino's choice. My guess is Nick and Larry are on good speaking terms.

[jung]

Well Cafardo would love to see Hamilton here anyway cause it gives him more good stuff to write about but I can also see how LL might use Nick as a way to pump up the tires on this deal. That said, I am not sure how much pumping it will take at least if LL is looking for fan support. At present there isn't much for fans to point to with any enthusiasm.

[seabeachfred]

My hunch is Lucchino wants Hamilton--to sell tickets. Cafardo has been promoting Hamilton just like he promoted Valentine--and V was Lucchino's choice. My guess is Nick and Larry are on good speaking terms.

 

You could be right on that SoxSport, but I would rather kill two birds with one stone and ink Swisher and Napoli, take care of two positions and have the means to use these two in numerous spots instead of worrying if we get an early morning report of some player having a hangover in the south end. Besides it would still leave us with enough money to sign a pitcher or because we signed two starters instead of one have enough depth to trade for a pitcher. Hamilton is a great player but his background and penchant for getting hurt spooks me out. ..Besides, the team sells enoug tickets; the aim should be winning and not just putting on a show.

[BSN07]

You could be right on that SoxSport, but I would rather kill two birds with one stone and ink Swisher and Napoli, take care of two positions and have the means to use these two in numerous spots instead of worrying if we get an early morning report of some player having a hangover in the south end. Besides it would still leave us with enough money to sign a pitcher or because we signed two starters instead of one have enough depth to trade for a pitcher. Hamilton is a great player but his background and penchant for getting hurt spooks me out. ..Besides, the team sells enoug tickets; the aim should be winning and not just putting on a show.

 

Signing both Swisher and Napoli limits their versatility which is one of their more attractable values.

[mvp 78]

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/26/3935685/royals-could-likely-land-front.html

 

Myers for Lester? Sure, why not.

[jacksonianmarch]

Myers is a stud in the making, but you'd be pulling from your weakness.

[mvp 78]

Just thinking that it could be a good opportunity to clear $$$ for a different pitcher since Lester may not rebound.

[jacksonianmarch]

He may not rebound, but his FIP says he pitched better than his ERA last yr. He's a good bet to have an ERA around or below 4 next yr.

[Spitball]

Just thinking that it could be a good opportunity to clear $$$ for a different pitcher since Lester may not rebound.

 

Lester is fairly expensive and trending downward. Wil Myers is the third rated prospect in baseball. He would be inexpensive, in the middle of the Red Sox order, and in right field for several years to come.

[mvp 78]

He may not rebound, but his FIP says he pitched better than his ERA last yr. He's a good bet to have an ERA around or below 4 next yr.

 

SFF banged the FIP drum all year long and he continued sucking. I'm hopeful that he'll return to form, but it's not definite.

[SoxSport]

Myers is the no.1 hitting prospect in the minors right now. A RHd power bat. But there's no guarantees with prospects. On the other hand, Lester is coming off a bad year, and there is no guarantee he will rebound to his 2010 form.

 

I would do this deal. It would give guys like Morales and DeLaRosa and a couple of their other prime pitching prospects an opportunity with the Sox. It's time they opened up the roster to young talent.

In that sense, they can get the drop on the Yankees, who have severe age problems that are getting worse.

 

The Sox have an up on other teams to get Myers, since lefty starters are prime property and Lester was an all-star two years ago. Could be they go after Hosmer as well, in a package.

[Spitball]

The Sox have an up on other teams to get Myers, since lefty starters are prime property and Lester was an all-star two years ago. Could be they go after Hosmer as well, in a package.

 

I wonder how serious the Royals really are about trading Myers. I would guess the Sox would have to take up much of Lester's contract in order for the Royals to trade an inexpensive young bat. I can't see the Royals giving up both Hosmer and Myers. They would have to get a bunch of excellent pitching and not have to take on too much payroll.

 

I have been watching the Royals' Northwest Arkansas double A team for a couple of years now. They have some gifted young talent in their system. They are maybe a year and a couple of pitchers away from being the Tampa Bay Rays.

[example1]

Trading Lester in a situation like this would not be selling low, which would be awesome. I would be pretty comfortable with them making this move, because adding Myers to this club would solidify the foundation.

 

The club has the money and resources to add premier pitching and if it didn't cost them prospects it could be a fine deal. It would likely mean that 2013 would be a punt season, but for a possibl all-star caliber prospect it wouldn't be a terrible move.

 

I'm not sure that Lester and his relatively short contract (until after 2014 I believe) would be what KC is looking for though.

[rjortiz]

 

I have been watching the Royals' Northwest Arkansas double A team for a couple of years now. They have some gifted young talent in their system. They are maybe a year and a couple of pitchers away from being the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

If by a couple you mean like six, then you're on to something.

[BSN07]

Trading Lester in a situation like this would not be selling low, which would be awesome. I would be pretty comfortable with them making this move, because adding Myers to this club would solidify the foundation.

 

The club has the money and resources to add premier pitching and if it didn't cost them prospects it could be a fine deal. It would likely mean that 2013 would be a punt season, but for a possibl all-star caliber prospect it wouldn't be a terrible move.

 

I'm not sure that Lester and his relatively short contract (until after 2014 I believe) would be what KC is looking for though.

 

I'm ok with the deal as well. It most certainly means next year is a rebuilding year. But watching a season of all the young kids would be interesting.

 

I don't think Lester being signed for only 2 years is an issue for KC. They are also rumored to be looking at Shields for Myers. And he's only signed for one year.

 

This isn't a run the guy out of town move. This would be a quality baseball move and to be honest a pretty bold one.

[Orange Juiced]

If this deal really is out there to be had, I think you do it if you're the Red Sox. Why? Myers is a legit middle of the order hitter, and, at just 21, is cost-controlled for a long time. I think there's a good chance Lester regains his 2010 form so that's an awful lot to replace, but there are a couple of terrific pitchers out there on the FA market. You deal Lester for Myers, and then sign Greinke and Anibal Sanchez and then, yes, Hamilton and Napoli. Lineup:

 

CF Ellsbury

2b Pedroia

LF Hamilton

1b Napoli

DH Ortiz

RF Myers

3b Middlebrooks

C Lavarnway

SS Iglesias

 

That's a serious lineup, even with Iglesias at the bottom.

 

The rotation: Greinke, Sanchez, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront

 

You have one true ace in Greinke, two very capable guys at the 2 and 3 with Sanchez and Buchholz, Doubront is a good candidate to improve upon his solid rookie season, and I think Lackey should be fine, especially as a 4th or 5th starter. And you can do all this without trading any of the young stud arms in the system.

 

The one thing this would cost the Sox is money, but money is also the one thing they have plenty of at this point.

[BSN07]

If this deal really is out there to be had, I think you do it if you're the Red Sox. Why? Myers is a legit middle of the order hitter, and, at just 21, is cost-controlled for a long time. I think there's a good chance Lester regains his 2010 form so that's an awful lot to replace, but there are a couple of terrific pitchers out there on the FA market. You deal Lester for Myers, and then sign Greinke and Anibal Sanchez and then, yes, Hamilton and Napoli. Lineup:

 

CF Ellsbury

2b Pedroia

LF Hamilton

1b Napoli

DH Ortiz

RF Myers

3b Middlebrooks

C Lavarnway

SS Iglesias

 

That's a serious lineup, even with Iglesias at the bottom.

 

The rotation: Greinke, Sanchez, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront

 

You have one true ace in Greinke, two very capable guys at the 2 and 3 with Sanchez and Buchholz, Doubront is a good candidate to improve upon his solid rookie season, and I think Lackey should be fine, especially as a 4th or 5th starter. And you can do all this without trading any of the young stud arms in the system.

 

The one thing this would cost the Sox is money, but money is also the one thing they have plenty of at this point.

 

Adding those two would be nice but considering the Dodgers are after Grienke I don't see the Sox being able to sign him. Sanchez is not going to be worth the contract he gets. Just because they have money doesn't mean they should piss it away and over spend on non elite players.

 

The FA market is just not a good way to fill the SP voids right now. But the Sox will have money and prospects to possibly make a deal for a front line pitcher to replace Lester(Jacoby + prospects, sign Victorino for lead off and stop gap for Bradley in CF). And then look at the one year contract guys for SP depth.

 

Dealing from a weakness isn't usually the norm. But in the case of getting a 21 year old possible middle of the order bats it's worth it. I'm not sold Lester would be back after his contract runs out anyways. I think his home state of Washington will be making a major pay for him. And I could see the appeal of teaming up with the King

 

Wish TB wasn't in the division, Price is about to get extremely expensive and would be just the kind of front line guy they need. I'm not even sure TB would consider a 3 team deal.

[mvp 78]

If they trade for Myers, they don't need Hamilton. Use that $25M+ on pitching.

[Elktonnick]

I'm ok with the deal as well. It most certainly means next year is a rebuilding year. But watching a season of all the young kids would be interesting.

 

I don't think Lester being signed for only 2 years is an issue for KC. They are also rumored to be looking at Shields for Myers. And he's only signed for one year.

 

This isn't a run the guy out of town move. This would be a quality baseball move and to be honest a pretty bold one.

 

I can't believe the Royals would do this deal but, if they do I am all for it. But make no bones about it, it is a run this guys out of town move, if it happens. No one trades a quality starter if you believe his best years are ahead of him. This deal only happens because the the Sox don't believe that Lester's best years are ahead of him. Plus, it also tells me that the FO thinks Lester's attitude problem wasn't just confined to BV. Furthermore I can't believe the Sox do this deal without touching base with Farrell.

[example1]

I can't believe the Royals would do this deal but, if they do I am all for it. But make no bones about it, it is a run this guys out of town move, if it happens. No one trades a quality starter if you believe his best years are ahead of him. This deal only happens because the the Sox don't believe that Lester's best years are ahead of him. Plus, it also tells me that the FO thinks Lester's attitude problem wasn't just confined to BV. Furthermore I can't believe the Sox do this deal without touching base with Farrell.

 

The A's do it all the time don't they? Hudson, Mulder, Harden and Haren were all traded prior to it being necessary, I think, and at least two of them had better seasons ahead. Greinke has been trade twice prior to being a FA at a young age. Cliff Lee was in a pretty good spot when Cleveland traded him to Seattle, with one year (rather than the two that Lester has) remaining on his contract.

 

I think it is fair to say that the Sox wouldn't be talking about this trade if it wasn't Wil Myers. The guy has the potential to be an Evan Longoria type bat and you just on't find those guys very often. They might realize it would cost them a huge amount in the pitching department but they would get a lot back.

 

They could turn around and offer Myers to other teams for one of their young pitchers, if pitching is really what they are seeking here.

[BSN07]

I can't believe the Royals would do this deal but, if they do I am all for it. But make no bones about it, it is a run this guys out of town move, if it happens. No one trades a quality starter if you believe his best years are ahead of him. This deal only happens because the the Sox don't believe that Lester's best years are ahead of him. Plus, it also tells me that the FO thinks Lester's attitude problem wasn't just confined to BV. Furthermore I can't believe the Sox do this deal without touching base with Farrell.

 

I don't see it like that. I see it as he's got 2 years left, and even if he is ok the next couple years he's looking at least at a Mark Buerhle type contract on the FA market. It depends on what they plan for the final years of Lesters deal. If they don't see themselves in contention in the next 2 years there's not much point in having Lester be the best pitcher on a losing team as his value falls as he approaches free agency.

 

KC on the other hand is looking like they are trying to build some momentum and win sooner rather then later. Adding an experienced LHP at the top of the rotation for at least the next 2 years(I think if they wanted to the could spend some $ to extend him) looks mighty tempting.

 

As for the Red Sox motivations. The team is in some sort of rebuilding mode and adding a cost controlled player of Myers offensive potential is extremely tempting. They would be moving Lester for a top 3 MiLB prospect. If they were shopping him for a bag of balls, I could see it being more of a get him outta town move.

 

IMO this is a smart baseball move to get a young potential middle of the order power bat at a time when teams seem to be locking these type of players up long term and not allowing them to hit FA.

[Elktonnick]

The A's do it all the time don't they? Hudson, Mulder, Harden and Haren were all traded prior to it being necessary, I think, and at least two of them had better seasons ahead. Greinke has been trade twice prior to being a FA at a young age. Cliff Lee was in a pretty good spot when Cleveland traded him to Seattle, with one year (rather than the two that Lester has) remaining on his contract.

 

I think it is fair to say that the Sox wouldn't be talking about this trade if it wasn't Wil Myers. The guy has the potential to be an Evan Longoria type bat and you just on't find those guys very often. They might realize it would cost them a huge amount in the pitching department but they would get a lot back.

 

They could turn around and offer Myers to other teams for one of their young pitchers, if pitching is really what they are seeking here.

 

Apples and Oranges, the A's do for financial reasons. The Red Sox have different financial considerations. I believe the Red Sox have correctedly concluded that Lester will never be the pittcher he was. He has failed to live up to his potential. Two years ago many were saying he was a nbr 1 an ace. Well he has steadily deteriorated. His cutter has been his downfall as well as his attitude. If this deal doesn't happen I hope it is wakeup call to him to get his act together.

[a700hitter]

Apples and Oranges, the A's do for financial reasons. The Red Sox have different financial considerations. I believe the Red Sox have correctedly concluded that Lester will never be the pittcher he was. He has failed to live up to his potential. Two years ago many were saying he was a nbr 1 an ace. Well he has steadily deteriorated. His cutter has been his downfall as well as his attitude. If this deal doesn't happen I hope it is wakeup call to him to get his act together.

With rare exceptions like 2012, the A's field uninteresting teams that stink so they don't draw fies. I don't think the Red Sox should be emulating any of the A's strategy.

[Elktonnick]

With rare exceptions like 2012, the A's field uninteresting teams that stink so they don't draw fies. I don't think the Red Sox should be emulating any of the A's strategy.

 

Even with interesting teams they'd draw flies. They have the worst stadium and they play in Oakland.

[jung]

I am not surprised that KC would dip its toes in the water but I would not do this deal if I were KC. It would be a stretch for them to believe they had the answer to Lester's issues. At least we can hope that Farrell has the key.

 

It will likely be half way through 2013 before Lester can really draw anything interesting in trade.

[a700hitter]

Although the Sox biggest need is starting pitching, here's how the rest of the team looks today:

 

C. Salty, Ross, Lavarnway

1B. Gomez (yuk!)

2B. Pedroia

3B. Middlebrooks

SS. Iglesias, Ciriaco

LF. ?

CF. Ellsbury

RF. Gomes/Kalish

DH Ortiz

 

There is a lot of work that needs to be done aside from the pitching. Cherries needs to kick into gear soon. As I look at this collection of garbage mixed in with 2 stars, I think there will be some splashy moves.