Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

This is what I suggested earlier in the off-season.

 

Looks like we are pretty strong in negotiations with Napoli.

 

We are still in on Swisher and Hamilton.

 

Alex Gonzalez and Jason Bay are minor pieces that are not out of the question.

 

A trade of Felix Doubront, Jose Iglesias, Salty, Ryan Kalish and another add-in for Matt Garza and James Russell are not completely preposterous.

 

Full marks for a detailed, reasonable plan.

[Palodios]

Doesn't seem like too big a stretch to me. He's not saying that Daryl Strawberry or Tom Brunansky were the most dangerous of all time. Pujols is tied for 9th in career adjusted OPS+. The only player above during the era in question was Barry Bonds. Not sure he counts.

 

He was who I was referring to.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is what I suggested earlier in the off-season.

 

Looks like we are pretty strong in negotiations with Napoli.

 

We are still in on Swisher and Hamilton.

 

Alex Gonzalez and Jason Bay are minor pieces that are not out of the question.

 

A trade of Felix Doubront, Jose Iglesias, Salty, Ryan Kalish and another add-in for Matt Garza and James Russell are not completely preposterous.

 

Yup, I agree with all of these moves except for the fact that I am ok going into next season w Iglesias at SS, but we have certainly had our debates on that and just have a difference of opinion there.

 

That team would be an absolute contender, and not just for the 2nd WC spot, but for a WS, and wouldn't mortgage any of our future.

 

I may take Russell out of the Cubs deal and make a deal for Soriano or Soria, and that would also keep Kalish and Iggy and the add on out of the deal, potentially even take back Doubront and tack on Alex Wilson, considering Garzas injury concerns.

 

If Farrell can get Bard and Aceves back on track, and tack on Bailey, Tazawa, Soria, Miller, and Breslow, that would be a disgusting bullpen.

[SoxSport]

http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/11/25/red-sox-should-after-josh-hamilton-joe-mauer/iVElvj69tKteMQwMvTJiWO/story.html

 

Cafardo thinks the Sox should go after Hamilton--to energize the fan base. I think he's right. Hamilton is the only FA out there who can do that. He would be money in the bank. To get him, Henry would pretty much have to be doing the pushing. I just can't see gentle Ben pulling this off.

 

You look at the chatgroups, and many sound like a bunch schoolmoms talking about Hamilton's personal issues. Fact is the media has overblown them, and they have never interfered with his production in Texas. He does need guidance, but his time lost in Texas have been because of injuries--he plays hard, unlike some of the spoiled dorks who have worn a Red Sox uniform the past few years. He is one of the top 3 hitters in baseball, and he would energize the team and the fanbase in a way that is sorely needed. I doubt foggy Ben realizes this--based on everything he's said and done so far. But Henry does. He pays the bills.

 

As for Mauer, I don't see him as the jumpstarter Hamilton is. You pay big bucks for power in a hitter. And he has no power. Way overpaid by the Twins to stay in Minnesota.

 

So while Ben is splitting hairs about 3 or 4 years for Napoli, he really should be zeroed in on Hamilton. Napoli is OK, but somebody has already pointed out that he and Gomes in the lineup knock the defense down a notch or two--which knocks the weak pitching down as well. Hamilton, by the way, is an excellent outfielder. Too bad Ben never saw Ted Williams play. Hamilton's swing reminds me of Ted, and he is a far better all-around player than Ted was.

[Palodios]

 

So while Ben is splitting hairs about 3 or 4 years for Napoli, he really should be zeroed in on Hamilton. Napoli is OK, but somebody has already pointed out that he and Gomes in the lineup knock the defense down a notch or two--which knocks the weak pitching down as well. Hamilton, by the way, is an excellent outfielder. Too bad Ben never saw Ted Williams play. Hamilton's swing reminds me of Ted, and he is a far better all-around player than Ted was.

 

I'm okay with both

[jung]

I think the Sox will be willing to spend per annum on Hamilton with the issue coming down to years. Nobody is going to give him 7 years especially with his own current team already setting a ceiling of 3 years in their negotiation with him or at least publicly stating that was their limit.

 

As for Napoli vs Hamilton I suspect that if the money for Napoli is not crazy the Sox will prefer Napoli. If the money gets crazy for Napoli, why spend crazy money on Napoli when you could spend crazy money on Hamilton. I doubt you would see the Sox sign both as before you know it they will have gone through a big chunk of their LA money still needing pitching. I don't think they want to burn through a really high % of that money in one off season and clearly need pitching.

 

If Hamilton comes here just don't let him get near Beckett's former digs. Hamilton won't even have to leave the elevators to get in trouble down there.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, the fact that Hamilton is only allowed $20 in pocket money to help maintain his sobriety is totally overblown...

[SoxSport]

I think the main concern about Napoli is defense. He doesn't give you much at C or 1B. You wonder if Swisher isn't a better choice here--being a switch hitter and playing OF/1B. Depends on the money difference. But Napoli hits well in Fenway. No mistaking that. He knows that, too.

 

I don't know what will happen, but if Ben doesn't make a splash, there will be howls from the fanbase. I suspect that Lucchino and Henry are in on anything major--maybe out front. They know things have to happen.

[example1]

Hamilton would be a fine acquisition. He's not such an elite bat or player to warrant breaking the bank for though. He has had wildly variable seasons the past few years, ranging from 1.000+ to .800 OPS.

 

Also, at his age I suspect he will be seeking years and dollars, less than agreeable to short term higher dollars. So we should ask how we would feel with a 6 year deal or so. I'm not sure how I feel about it. He reminds me of Matt Holliday production wise. More upside, less consistency. Many of us wanted Holliday a few years back and I can't imagine the sox feeling differently. This might be their chance to go back and do that again. Just don't go to the extreme price the Cards did.

 

In the intervening years it became clear that a player like Holliday (and Hamilton) are much easier to build around than other types of players (Crawford) and they would still have many options to improve around him.

 

I don't think Hamilton is a great OF but plopping him in LF and having him make that spot his own would be fun to watch. He's got a decent arm too, which would help.

 

Hamilton, Ellsbury and Kalish, or Hamilton, Ellsbury and Swisher would be a nice OF.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, the fact that Hamilton is only allowed $20 in pocket money to help maintain his sobriety is totally overblown...

 

Pick the right seedy bar and you can get f***ed up with twenty bucks

[Palodios]

Pick the right seedy bar and you can get f***ed up with twenty bucks

 

Maybe that's all the more reason to move to Boston. $20 won't get you anywhere.

[example1]

The Sox would really need to evaluate how Hamilton is doing with his soberity prior to signing him. It's not true of every player, but for a #1 overall pick who almost derailed his promising career due to drugs and alcohol it is essential. Poor guy has his demons and teams need to take them seriously.

[Palodios]

Have the Red Sox re-evaluated their rule for no alcohol in the clubhouse? Hamilton on the Red Sox could get mighty complicated.

[SoxSport]

The Sox would really need to evaluate how Hamilton is doing with his soberity prior to signing him. It's not true of every player, but for a #1 overall pick who almost derailed his promising career due to drugs and alcohol it is essential. Poor guy has his demons and teams need to take them seriously.

 

Appears to have done OK. He does need to be watched, as most AA types do, but I don't think he's ever missed games due to drinking or drugs. He's had big numbers the past few years--huge 1st half last year--then tapered off.

 

All FAs are overpaid. It's a fact of life. Look at the contracts last year. None of them are worth it. Teams want them--partly because they sell tickets and cable TV subscribers. They pay for themselves--almost.

 

The Red Sox are in a state where Cherington's prognostications won't hold any water this year. They need to make a splash for the fan base. Toronto's dealings have almost assured that. They are currently last in the East, and small potatoes acquisitions probably won't change that. It's the business part of the equation that says they need a superstar like Hamilton.

[mvp 78]

Pick the right seedy bar and you can get f***ed up with twenty bucks

 

Well, he could get a case for less than $20 down the street. I think the bigger worry is him going out scoring some coke, heroin, crack or whatever he has struggled with in the past. When he's failed drug tests in the past, it was for substances stronger than pot. I think glossing over the seriousness of his disease is fairly ignorant.

[Spitball]

Hamilton would be a fine acquisition. He's not such an elite bat or player to warrant breaking the bank for though. He has had wildly variable seasons the past few years, ranging from 1.000+ to .800 OPS.

 

Also, at his age I suspect he will be seeking years and dollars, less than agreeable to short term higher dollars. So we should ask how we would feel with a 6 year deal or so. I'm not sure how I feel about it. He reminds me of Matt Holliday production wise. More upside, less consistency. Many of us wanted Holliday a few years back and I can't imagine the sox feeling differently. This might be their chance to go back and do that again. Just don't go to the extreme price the Cards did.

 

In the intervening years it became clear that a player like Holliday (and Hamilton) are much easier to build around than other types of players (Crawford) and they would still have many options to improve around him.

 

I don't think Hamilton is a great OF but plopping him in LF and having him make that spot his own would be fun to watch. He's got a decent arm too, which would help.

 

Hamilton, Ellsbury and Kalish, or Hamilton, Ellsbury and Swisher would be a nice OF.

 

I agree with much of what you say here except the comparison to Holliday. They basically have similar tools, but Hamilton's are just better. He runs faster, hits the ball harder, has a far superior arm and defensive abilities.

 

The substance problems are a concern with Hamilton, but he has played very well for several years. He has been clean enough to produce at a very high level for six year.

 

Injuries might be a bigger concern as Hamilton has averaged only 122 games a year since 2009.

[example1]

I agree with much of what you say here except the comparison to Holliday. They basically have similar tools, but Hamilton's are just better. He runs faster, hits the ball harder, has a far superior arm and defensive abilities.

 

The substance problems are a concern with Hamilton, but he has played very well for six years. Injuries might be a bigger concern as Hamilton has averaged only 122 games a year since 2009.

 

Right, except that Holliday never missed years as an addict in his early years. Also, Hollidays numbers have simply been more consistent. You are right about everything you said, it's just that the consistency can't be discounted when looking at 20m players.

 

The injuries are right there too. I just think when people really look at the numbers Hamilton loses his luster a little bit. I'd be happy if they signed him, but his star status makes him able to ask for more than hes worth, even relative to the rest of the FA market.

[example1]

Appears to have done OK. He does need to be watched, as most AA types do, but I don't think he's ever missed games due to drinking or drugs. He's had big numbers the past few years--huge 1st half last year--then tapered off.

 

All FAs are overpaid. It's a fact of life. Look at the contracts last year. None of them are worth it. Teams want them--partly because they sell tickets and cable TV subscribers. They pay for themselves--almost.

 

The Red Sox are in a state where Cherington's prognostications won't hold any water this year. They need to make a splash for the fan base. Toronto's dealings have almost assured that. They are currently last in the East, and small potatoes acquisitions probably won't change that. It's the business part of the equation that says they need a superstar like Hamilton.

 

I just disagree with the need to make a splash. I think if any lesson comes out of the last 6 years, the only one is "don't do things just to make a splash." They should make splashes as they help build a winner.

 

My question would just be "or what?" What if they don't make a splash this offseason? What's the worst that happens?

[Palodios]

I just disagree with the need to make a splash. I think if any lesson comes out of the last 6 years, the only one is "don't do things just to make a splash." They should make splashes as they help build a winner.

 

My question would just be "or what?" What if they don't make a splash this offseason? What's the worst that happens?

 

I think the problem is that they are looking at "making a splash" in the wrong ways. They could avoid the elite-elite players and buy an absolute ton of very good free agent players on short term deals. Completely re-tooling a team with talent is making a splash.

 

They could also re-sign Ellsbury to a good deal too-- he's a fan favorite among pink hats and would definitely help the team and money-making parts of the organization.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I just disagree with the need to make a splash. I think if any lesson comes out of the last 6 years, the only one is "don't do things just to make a splash." They should make splashes as they help build a winner.

 

My question would just be "or what?" What if they don't make a splash this offseason? What's the worst that happens?

 

I would say that the Crawford deal was the biggest unnecessary splash.

 

The thing the Sox did so poorly was to mortgage the future. The VMart and Gonzo deals both stripped the Sox of some premium prospects. And it forced them to fill holes externally rather than internally, and ultimately created financial inflexibility.

 

Signing Hamilton and Napoli may bump the payroll up, but at the same time, you've got guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Tazawa, Bogaerts, Bradley, Brentz, Webster, De La Rosa, and Barnes who are going to be coming up over the next few years and providing the team with impact players at league min salaries. That allows the team to go out and give Hamilton the 5/120, and give Napoli the 4/48, and still maintain flexibility.

 

This offseason, I don't really see any moves that would be made just to make a splash. I think, as depleted as this roster is right now, any move is going to be to build a winning team in the short term without putting any risk on the long term.

[Palodios]

Here's a question:

 

Will the Red Sox spend as much on Napoli as Vmart's 4/52 contract? It seems like a valid comparison-- similar stats, similar defensive skill sets. Napoli has better skills as C, and Vmart has better skills at 1B, but both are projected to be DHes by the end of a 4 year contract.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a question:

 

Will the Red Sox spend as much on Napoli as Vmart's 4/52 contract? It seems like a valid comparison-- similar stats, similar defensive skill sets. Napoli has better skills as C, and Vmart has better skills at 1B, but both are projected to be DHes by the end of a 4 year contract.

 

I would agree that VMart and his contract are reasonable comps.

[seabeachfred]

Pick the right seedy bar and you can get f***ed up with twenty bucks

 

Maybe for even less Jackson. Look, I am not trying to say that going after Hamilton is a fool's errand because a healthy and productive Hamilton would be a big piece to the Red Sox puzzle, but one bottle of beer or one mixed drink and there could be a meltdown. The guy is a terrific ballplayer; my friend Fred Repke helped sign him way back in 1999, but he is an alcoholic and a former drug user. What guarantees, if any, are there that he might not slip back into that state. Didn't he have a close scare this season or last? I just hope the Red Sox will use due diligence on the guy .

[seabeachfred]

Pick the right seedy bar and you can get f***ed up with twenty bucks

 

Maybe for even less Jackson. Look, I am not trying to say that going after Hamilton is a fool's errand because a healthy and productive Hamilton would be a big piece to the Red Sox puzzle, but one bottle of beer or one mixed drink and there could be a meltdown. The guy is a terrific ballplayer; my friend Fred Repke helped draft him way back in 1999, but he is an alcoholic and a former drug user. What guarantees, if any, are there that he might not slip back into that state. Didn't he have a close scare this season or last? I just hope the Red Sox will use due diligence on the guy .

[Station 13]

Here's a question:

 

Will the Red Sox spend as much on Napoli as Vmart's 4/52 contract? It seems like a valid comparison-- similar stats, similar defensive skill sets. Napoli has better skills as C, and Vmart has better skills at 1B, but both are projected to be DHes by the end of a 4 year contract.

 

V-Mart is better than Napoli by a wide margin as a hitter.

[Station 13]

I would agree that VMart and his contract are reasonable comps.

 

I would not want Napoli at $52M.

[seabeachfred]

I think the problem is that they are looking at "making a splash" in the wrong ways. They could avoid the elite-elite players and buy an absolute ton of very good free agent players on short term deals. Completely re-tooling a team with talent is making a splash.

 

They could also re-sign Ellsbury to a good deal too-- he's a fan favorite among pink hats and would definitely help the team and money-making parts of the organization.

 

Right you are Palodios on this one---making a splash got into deep do-do with the Lackey and Crawford signings, but your mention of signing Ellsbury raised some red flags. I can't believing that Jacoby wants out of Boston in the worst way and has felt that was since idiot Epstein forced flunky Francona to move him to left field to "save his legs", one of the most ridiculous statements I have ever heard uttered by a baseball official. Then he got creamed by Adrian Beltre only to have his injury misdiagnosed by our miserable medical staff.

 

I also wonder if Jacoby has been a victim of bad luck or is just a very fragile player. I wouldn't mind trading the guy if it would help get a good pitcher but absent from that I wouldn't be adverse to resigning him long term. Maybe his luck is absent to change.

[example1]

V-Mart is better than Napoli by a wide margin as a hitter.

 

V-Mart was one of the better hitters in the league for a few years there. His overall value was far superior to Napoli's in his peak seasons. Napoli has tremendous power and would be a good addition nonetheless. I just hope the Sox don't pay Napoli as if he's a 3/4 time switch hitting catcher. 4 years, 40-45m maybe.

[bubbakeg52]

I would say that the Crawford deal was the biggest unnecessary splash.

 

The thing the Sox did so poorly was to mortgage the future. The VMart and Gonzo deals both stripped the Sox of some premium prospects. And it forced them to fill holes externally rather than internally, and ultimately created financial inflexibility.

 

Signing Hamilton and Napoli may bump the payroll up, but at the same time, you've got guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Tazawa, Bogaerts, Bradley, Brentz, Webster, De La Rosa, and Barnes who are going to be coming up over the next few years and providing the team with impact players at league min salaries. That allows the team to go out and give Hamilton the 5/120, and give Napoli the 4/48, and still maintain flexibility.

 

This offseason, I don't really see any moves that would be made just to make a splash. I think, as depleted as this roster is right now, any move is going to be to build a winning team in the short term without putting any risk on the long term.

 

I agree and I have been saying this since I joined this forumn. Go ahead. (give me a pat on the back)

[Palodios]

V-Mart is better than Napoli by a wide margin as a hitter.

 

Their OPS and OBP are close to identical.

 

 

Here's another fun fact I just learned about Napoli--

 

He's been #3 in the majors for pitches taken the last two years. Blame the lineup if you want, but he'll have just as good a lineup in Boston.