Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a stat nugget I dug up on Napoli. In 238 AB's in the 5 AL East parks he has 19 HR's, which is one per 12.5 AB's, which is huge of course. And his worst ratio, 2 HR's in 50 AB's at Camden Yards, is still decent.

[Bellhorn04]

Swisher is a guy renowned for his clubhouse presence but really known for his post-season struggles.

 

That's a weird thing on Swisher. He's been pretty clutch in the regular season and horrendous in the postseason. No explanation for something like that except the mental factor.

[Elktonnick]

So a few sites have listed the Sox as players for Nick Swisher. He's a guy who would make a lot of sense for them. Versatile, solid clubhouse presence, probably affordable compared to Hamilton. Also I would think that adding some hard nosed guys like him, Ross and Gomes could go a good distance toward rebuilding.

 

It may be a minor quibble but I don't see the addition of Ross and Gomes as rebuilding moves per se. Rather I see them as stemming the slide to furtrher deterioration. It is the 2013 version of a "bridge" year. Ross's presence probably prepares the way for the club moving Salty sometime next year. I think Gomes gives them some flexibility at DH should Ortiz come up hurt which has a high probability.

[Behindenemylines]

Both the Ross and Gomes signings are short term and set up platoons at two positions because neither is a full time player, and if used that way their production will suffer. Ross is by far the best catcher calling a game and throwing out runners that is on the roster. Gomes is platoon OF who hits lefties. Both are good in the clubhouse and have short contracts that won't stand in the way of youth coming up through the system.

[example1]

I should have added Napoli to that list of good veteran presence and versatility. I wouldn't be shocked if they did Swisher and Napoli to 4 year contracts. If they added a solid SP to that group (or two) then I would be more optimistic for next year.

 

Vs RHP

 

Ellsbury-cf

Pedroia-2b

Ortiz-DH

Napoli-1B

Swisher-LF

Middlebrooks-3b

Kalish-rf

Lavarnway-C

Iglesias-SS

 

Vs LHP

 

Ellsbury-cf

Pedroia-2b

Ortiz-DH

Napoli-1b

Swisher-rf

Middlebrooks-3b

Ross-c

Gomes-LF

Iglesias-SS

 

Or something like that. Obviously there might not be that many catchers around, but I like that offense. As others have mentioned it also leaves space for them to introduce the next wave of prospects without blocking them for too long. Bradley can have CF in 2014, Bogaerts can likely have SS whenever he is ready, unless they move Middlebrooks to 1B, and Brentz can compete for a corner OF spot over the next few years.

[Dojji]

If we sign Swisher, I want him playing full time at first base. He's better at first than anyone we presently have, and the presence of Napoli doesn't change that. Napoli and Ross split time at C, Napoli platoons with Papi at DH. Nava and Kalish complete the outfield picture for now, with an eye towards either acquiring a better option or phasing in Bradley and Brentz as they show they're ready.. This will also allow us a chance to get Ortiz's bat into the lineup in National League parks, which had been yet one more reason the Adgon trade was a mistake.

[SCM33]

If we sign Swisher, I want him playing full time at first base. He's better at first than anyone we presently have, and the presence of Napoli doesn't change that. Napoli and Ross split time at C, Napoli platoons with Papi at DH. Nava and Kalish complete the outfield picture for now, with an eye towards either acquiring a better option or phasing in Bradley and Brentz as they show they're ready.. This will also allow us a chance to get Ortiz's bat into the lineup in National League parks, which had been yet one more reason the Adgon trade was a mistake.

 

Platoon with David Ortiz? Are you serious? You know his LH vs LH split is MUCH better than Napolis split against LH right?

 

Napoli hit .215 with a .785 split against LH.

Ortiz hit .320 with a .985 split lefty on lefty.

 

Also, you are forgetting about Lavarnway. If Swisher signs, hes playing LF or RF.

 

And for christs sake, for the last time.....NO TO DANIEL NAVA!!!! After all this time, you still dont get it.

 

Literally......stunned that you still suggest that he is on this team, furthermore, you suggest he start!!!!! Unf***ingbelievable Dojji.

 

Thank god they got rid of that piece of crap Che-Hsuan Lin, otherwise we'd be hearing about an OF of Nava/Kalish/Lin.

 

Somehow, a new low.

[Dojji]

What the heck does Lavarnway have to do with anything? Napoli is better in all dimensions as a catcher than Lavarnway. Only a legitimate concern about his ability to sustain his offense over a full year as a catcher stops me from wanting to sign him fulltime for that position.

 

Also I have absolutely no freaking idea whatsoever what you're talking about when you site splits. Per Baseball Reference, Napoli for his career has a .911 OPS v lefthanded pitching and Ortiz is at .824. Without a particular reason to take it seriously, what they did in one year last year is less important than the greater sample.

 

As for Nava, he's a classic lefthanded platoon bat. If we have Gomes and Ross, by default we have need for one of those. Unless you go grab better one, or Bradley proves he's ready for the show, or Kalish proves he can go for at least one good solid week without injuring himself, he's the best option available at the moment. When that changes, we'll talk.

[SCM33]

What the heck does Lavarnway have to do with anything? Napoli is better in all dimensions as a catcher than Lavarnway. Only a legitimate concern about his ability to sustain his offense over a full year as a catcher stops me from wanting to sign him fulltime for that position.

 

Also I have absolutely no freaking idea whatsoever what you're talking about when you site splits. Per Baseball Reference, Napoli for his career has a .911 OPS v lefthanded pitching and Ortiz is at .824. Without a particular reason to take it seriously, what they did in one year last year is less important than the greater sample.

 

As for Nava, he's a classic lefthanded platoon bat. If we have Gomes and Ross, by default we have need for one of those. Unless you go grab better one, or Bradley proves he's ready for the show, or Kalish proves he can go for at least one good solid week without injuring himself, he's the best option available at the moment. When that changes, we'll talk.

 

If Napoli signs. He will be playing 1B, not catcher.

 

Ortiz has better splits than Napoli in 2011 and 2012, and you want to take the best bat out of the lineup to platoon with a guy who should be playing 1B..........in addition, both players put up good numbers against lefties, but you want a platoon. Thats stupid.

 

A good baseball team has zero need for players like Daniel Nava, and Im not having this discussion again.

[example1]

Yeah I don't think Ortiz will be platooning with anyone. At some point I will try to put together a reasonable 24 man roster that includes Napoli and Swisher, just for fun. The question would be whether there is potential for too many platoon needs, thus hurting the flexibility of the roster overall. Will need to wait until I'm on a computer, not phone.

[seabeachfred]

If they are going to overpay my choice would be Grienke. He's a possible #1 currently in the early stages of his prime. I wouldn't overpay for Sanchez. I'd be interested at around 4/60M but I think he will get closer to Beckett money. I'd consider an over pay on AAV for a one year deal on a guy like Haren.

 

Grienke(6/120M)

Lester

Buchholz

Haren(1/12M)/Lackey if Haren is not signed

Doubront

 

It's a solid rotation.

 

I'd be ok if they went 5/125M on Hamilton. Flip Ellsbury somewhere for pieces to acquire Upton so they don't empty the farm. Find a 1-2 year stop gap in CF. A 2014 OF of Hamilton, Bradley, and Upton is nice to think about

 

You've been busy BSN. I like that rotation with Greinke and Haren, but seriously though, do you think the front office would expend the fund to make this happen? And if it did, we also know that Lester and Buchholz MUST rebound, stay healthy for a change and finally live up to their press clippings of their best efforts.

 

Hamilton would be worth a shot except that he is one beer from another major meltdown and can you believe what RSN, the press, the media and fans in general would be acting like if this went down? I still don't know how much money Henry wants to spend this winter but I do know he better do a helluva lot better in that regard than his miserable penny pinching last winter. We all saw where that landed us.

 

Not to rain on your solid suggestions, I don't think we're heading this way.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the sox are better served by passing on Greinke and Sanchez, signing a guy like Haren, giving their team a chance to declare itself and looking at what goes on north of the border in their own division. Should Josh Johnson put up an ace level season in the AL East, then he should be target numero uno next offseason to lead your rotation

[seabeachfred]

Swisher is a guy renowned for his clubhouse presence but really known for his post-season struggles.

 

Jack, you're our resident genius in all things Yankees and if you can't answer this no one can. What is it with Swisher? I've seen enough Yankees games on the tube to know that Nick is a pretty tough customer during the regular season but seems to disappear during the Playoffs. What's that all about? I've seen the guy get a lot of big hits for your team but very few in the post-season. I wonder if it is a mental block or the fact that pitching seems to toughen in the Playoffs. I've never figured that one out, and I have to admit I would love to see Swisher on the Red Sox.

[seabeachfred]

I should have added Napoli to that list of good veteran presence and versatility. I wouldn't be shocked if they did Swisher and Napoli to 4 year contracts. If they added a solid SP to that group (or two) then I would be more optimistic for next year.

 

Vs RHP

 

Ellsbury-cf

Pedroia-2b

Ortiz-DH

Napoli-1B

Swisher-LF

Middlebrooks-3b

Kalish-rf

Lavarnway-C

Iglesias-SS

 

Vs LHP

 

Ellsbury-cf

Pedroia-2b

Ortiz-DH

Napoli-1b

Swisher-rf

Middlebrooks-3b

Ross-c

Gomes-LF

Iglesias-SS

 

Or something like that. Obviously there might not be that many catchers around, but I like that offense. As others have mentioned it also leaves space for them to introduce the next wave of prospects without blocking them for too long. Bradley can have CF in 2014, Bogaerts can likely have SS whenever he is ready, unless they move Middlebrooks to 1B, and Brentz can compete for a corner OF spot over the next few years.

 

A home run Ex1? Maybe not but certainly a solid extra base hit. I think the top six would make for a decent attack, and we might be able to carry Iglesias' weak bat until if and when he simply can't buy a hit and put in Ciriaco. That would leave Salty available for a trade, but it would seem to me a Bradley or Bogaerts might be needed to get us a solid pitcher for our rotation. I also hope our pitching coach works with our pitchers to hold runners on base in ST. Francona admitted when he was managing that he didn't stress this because it took away from pitchers concentrating on the batter, which I always thought was d umb. Keep the runners out of scoring position as much as you can.

[example1]

I would too Fred. I'm doubtful that swisher would love to depart NY for Boston of all places but with enough money I'm sure he could be convinced.

 

You're right though, in the playoffs the guy absolutely wilts. I'm not sure what's up with that, but its a big sample size and his numbers are putrid. Of course, the Yankees have shay the bed in general in the playoffs so maybe the whole team was pressing the past two seasons.

 

I just hope that people remember the Sox have payroll flexibility now, but they won't if they go get marquee FAs at all positions. With a Sanchez here and a Napoli there and a dash of Swish they will be again pushing their cap. I understand the desire to max out the cap again but unless the deals are team friendly they will quickly be back to a position of minimal flexibility. They should leave 20m or so for short term acquisitions and mid season upgrades of guys with short contracts, and never be at the place again where 5m is too much to spend on a veteran player like they were last year.

[example1]

A home run Ex1? Maybe not but certainly a solid extra base hit. I think the top six would make for a decent attack, and we might be able to carry Iglesias' weak bat until if and when he simply can't buy a hit and put in Ciriaco. That would leave Salty available for a trade, but it would seem to me a Bradley or Bogaerts might be needed to get us a solid pitcher for our rotation. I also hope our pitching coach works with our pitchers to hold runners on base in ST. Francona admitted when he was managing that he didn't stress this because it took away from pitchers concentrating on the batter, which I always thought was d umb. Keep the runners out of scoring position as much as you can.

 

Farrell mentioned in a recent interview that the league is running more than ever now that PEDs are leaving the game. Ross can help with that for sure.

[BSN07]

Napoli is meeting with the Red Sox in Boston this weekend, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

[jung]

Of course the league is pumping its own tires about PED's leaving the game. Until their testing is more comprehensive than it is, they really don't have a clue. I had a more optimistic view myself for awhile but they keep catching guys and given how many holes there are in the league process, I suspect they are catching a small percentage of the guys that are juicing in some way, shape or form.

 

I will remain skeptical if they keep catching at least one guy a year.

[Palodios]

Napoli is meeting with the Red Sox in Boston this weekend, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

 

I just saw that moments ago. Very good to see that they are getting serious with him -- he seems to be an ideal player for this team.

[Spitball]

I just saw that moments ago. Very good to see that they are getting serious with him -- he seems to be an ideal player for this team.

 

I agree. This would be a very good signing. The Sox need to add some power bats and Napoli would be a nice addition.

[jung]

Given the sparsity of talent out there, the Sox have to make a run at Napoli.It should be interesting to see how far the Sox are willing to go on Napoli.

 

The reality is that it is hard to think about 2013 as potentially the Sox year. They just have to much personnel ground to make up and the Jays have clearly decided to push all of their chips to the middle of the table in 2013. Although as much wheeling and dealing as the Jays have done, if Johnson does not pan out, all of that wheeling and dealing might not get them very far.

[BSN07]

Given the sparsity of talent out there, the Sox have to make a run at Napoli.It should be interesting to see how far the Sox are willing to go on Napoli.

 

The reality is that it is hard to think about 2013 as potentially the Sox year. They just have to much personnel ground to make up and the Jays have clearly decided to push all of their chips to the middle of the table in 2013. Although as much wheeling and dealing as the Jays have done, if Johnson does not pan out, all of that wheeling and dealing might not get them very far.

 

Toronto is a powder keg going into the season. If they struggle it's gonna blow. I think they are going to be the "sexy" pick going into ST. I don't like their rotation to be honest. Johnson is a big ? in my book. He has an injury history and is a career NL pitcher. At best I think he is Josh Beckett, at worst I think he is Josh Beckett.

 

Mark B(I'm too tired to look up how to spell his name) is a solid mid rotation guy.

 

After that it is very suspect. Romero imploded this year, Morrow could go either way and then it get's down to guys you just really aren't sure about.

 

Their offense should be pretty good. I haven't really looked at their BP. I'm expecting a trade for JP to either the Mets of Rangers with someone like Holland coming back. So their rotation could look a little more stable if that happened.

[jung]

Jays have not bought the div just yet. But I suspect they know that and will try to shore up some of the ? in an effort to grab that ST, most likely to succeed spot. That said, that spot has not guaranteed much lately.

 

It really does right now boil down to Johnson. If he is healthy and pitches at his best, the Jays may have bought the div title. If that does not happen, from where they are today I think they will have made up a ton of ground in the AL East but will not have assured themselves of more than being in a dog fight to the end.

[seabeachfred]

Here's a stat nugget I dug up on Napoli. In 238 AB's in the 5 AL East parks he has 19 HR's, which is one per 12.5 AB's, which is huge of course. And his worst ratio, 2 HR's in 50 AB's at Camden Yards, is still decent.

 

Hey Bell, that is no small sample size and personally I think it speaks volumes that Napoli might be worth even more to the Red Sox than many of us think. I'm hoping Cherington is well aware of these stats. You always try to get a player who hits well in your park, but when he does so in a few of rivals parks as well I think it about time to stand up and take notice.

[seabeachfred]

I would too Fred. I'm doubtful that swisher would love to depart NY for Boston of all places but with enough money I'm sure he could be convinced.

 

You're right though, in the playoffs the guy absolutely wilts. I'm not sure what's up with that, but its a big sample size and his numbers are putrid. Of course, the Yankees have shay the bed in general in the playoffs so maybe the whole team was pressing the past two seasons.

 

I just hope that people remember the Sox have payroll flexibility now, but they won't if they go get marquee FAs at all positions. With a Sanchez here and a Napoli there and a dash of Swish they will be again pushing their cap. I understand the desire to max out the cap again but unless the deals are team friendly they will quickly be back to a position of minimal flexibility. They should leave 20m or so for short term acquisitions and mid season upgrades of guys with short contracts, and never be at the place again where 5m is too much to spend on a veteran player like they were last year.

 

Stil wondering why Swisher is so inept in the Playoffs, but consider this: Except for 2009 when the Yankees got hot in the second, tore through the division and went all the way to another WS Title their playoff run hasn't been that impressive since they won the 2003 AL Title and went to the World Series (thanks Grady wherever the hell you are). What that's telling me is that many Yankees seem to be wilting in the post-season and maybe our pal Jackson can shed some light on these failures.

 

Swisher does not impress me as a shrinking violet and that makes me think he could come to Boston if the price was right and become a popular player if he does his job. I mean, how many times have we stolen a player from the Yankees, especially not when word is out the Yankees will let him walk anyway.

 

You're spot on with the payroll flexibility aspect. No way do we max ourselves out because a nice reserve of cash could come in handy if we suddenly find ourselves fighting for a playoff spot and someone who can help us suddenly comes on the market.

[seabeachfred]

 

Keep the good thoughts coming from your small corner of he world and I'll do my job out here on the US' left coast. I want this signing to get done because it could answer an immediate problem (RH power, first base, catching depth) and long range goals like a trade for a pitcher or maybe even a blockbuster. Remember, we would then have four catchers when other teams are screaming for one decent one.

[Spitball]

Jays have not bought the div just yet. But I suspect they know that and will try to shore up some of the ? in an effort to grab that ST, most likely to succeed spot. That said, that spot has not guaranteed much lately.

 

It really does right now boil down to Johnson. If he is healthy and pitches at his best, the Jays may have bought the div title. If that does not happen, from where they are today I think they will have made up a ton of ground in the AL East but will not have assured themselves of more than being in a dog fight to the end.

 

Last off season, Reyes and Buerhle were added to a Miami team that included Johnson. It was a team coming off 90 loses in a relatively weak NL East...but that team entered 2012 with extremely high hopes because of those additions. Now those same players have been added to a Toronto team coming off 89 loses in a strong AL East...and the team enters 2013 with extremely high hopes because of those additions. Hmmm...

 

The Angels were a very good team in 2011. They added possibly the greatest hitter of the last 35 years in Pujols. They also added the best starting pitcher available on the market in C.J.Wilson. Also, Kendry Morales was returning. If you follow baseball, you know what happened to that team.

 

Championships are not won in the off season, and Red Sox fans certainly should realize that.

[Palodios]

They added possibly the greatest hitter of the last 35 years in Pujols.

 

 

Not quite.

[SCM33]

Sign Mike Napoli.

Sign Nick Swisher/Josh Hamilton.

Sign Alex Gonzalez.

Resign Cody Ross

Sign Jason Bay as a spring training invite.

Trade Felix Doubront, Jose Iglesias, Salty, Ryan Kalish and another add-in for Matt Garza and James Russell.

 

C: David Ross/Ryan Lavarnway

1B: Mike Napoli

2B: Dustin Pedroia

3B. Will Middlebrooks

SS: Alex Gonzalez

LF: Nick Swisher/Jason Bay

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury

RF: Josh Hamilton/Nick Swisher

DH: David Ortiz

 

SP: Jon Lester

SP: Clay Buccholz

SP: Matt Garza

SP: Franklin Morales

SP: John Lackey

 

CP: Andrew Bailey

BP: Daniel Bard

BP: James Russell

BP: Alfredo Aceves

BP: Junichi Tazawa

BP: Andrew Miller

 

Bench: Ross/Lavarnway

Bench: Pedro Ciriaco

Bench: Jason Bay

Bench: Mauro Gomez

Bench: 4th/5th OF

 

This is what I suggested earlier in the off-season.

 

Looks like we are pretty strong in negotiations with Napoli.

 

We are still in on Swisher and Hamilton.

 

Alex Gonzalez and Jason Bay are minor pieces that are not out of the question.

 

A trade of Felix Doubront, Jose Iglesias, Salty, Ryan Kalish and another add-in for Matt Garza and James Russell are not completely preposterous.

[example1]

 

Not quite.

 

Doesn't seem like too big a stretch to me. He's not saying that Daryl Strawberry or Tom Brunansky were the most dangerous of all time. Pujols is tied for 9th in career adjusted OPS+. The only player above during the era in question was Barry Bonds. Not sure he counts.