Is Buchholz an Ace?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Every trade under Jackso's authority starts with Bradley and Barnes.

 

Fact is, it would likely take 1 of the two, but certainly not both.

 

A deal of Bradley + Cecchini + Shaw, or something of that stature, would get it done.

 

For 1 year of an injured Josh Johnson coming off of a career worst season and TJS would hardly net two of the top 35 prospects per BA.

[jacksonianmarch]

I thought Johnson had another yr? Regardless, Beckett plus a B level isn't even in the same galaxy

[SoxFanForsyth]

I thought Johnson had another yr? Regardless, Beckett plus a B level isn't even in the same galaxy

 

No, FA after 2013. Not to mention he's making $13.75mm this year, so it's not even like he's in the last year of an excessively team friendly deal.

 

Agree, Beckett + B level isn't going to work, but Beckett + Bradley + Cecchini would likely get it done.

 

Having said that, I'd never pull the trigger on that deal.

[Behindenemylines]

Will have to eat some money if they hope to trade Beckett. Why would the Marlins bring in Beckett when they started clearing $$$$ already from their salaries at the trading deadline. They would be interested in major league ready talent on the cheap. Read an interesting rumor about the Angels swaping a bad contract (Vernon Wells) for Red Sox bad contract (Lackey). I don't know if two negatives would make a positive. Something to think about going into the off season.

[3rdManOut]

Since the trade with the Dodgers now and getting some new pitchers that could improve our rotation, where does Buccholz fit in now? Would we switch roles with Lester being the number 2 or 3 man and have Buccholz have the top spot with the new guys filling in the rest?

[Orange Juiced]

Since the trade with the Dodgers now and getting some new pitchers that could improve our rotation, where does Buccholz fit in now? Would we switch roles with Lester being the number 2 or 3 man and have Buccholz have the top spot with the new guys filling in the rest?

 

Buchholz. One "c" and two "h".

 

This team now has the resources in both money and prospects to go get a true #1 like Felix Hernandez.

[Thunder]

Buchholz. One "c" and two "h".

 

This team now has the resources in both money and prospects to go get a true #1 like Felix Hernandez.

 

Yeah, trade the whole team for him.:dunno:

[Orange Juiced]

Yeah, trade the whole team for him.:dunno:

 

De La Rosa is a top pitching prospect by any measure. Webster is another high-level pitching prospect. As is Barnes. They also have a bunch of excellent position player prospects. I could see them offering Webster, Barnes, Iglesias, Brentz, and one other guy to Seattle for Felix. The Sox would *still* have some quality prospects waiting in the wings (De La Rosa, Bogaerts, Sands, Bradley, Owens, Workman, etc.), so it wouldn't be a total raiding of the farm system. For the Mariners, it might be tempting, b/c Webster and Barnes could be in the rotation by Aug 2013 or 2014 at the latest, they have crap at SS, and Brentz is a fantastic hitting OF prospect. I'm just saying, if they're at all considering moving Felix, this is the kind of package that they'd net, most likely.

[a700hitter]

Buchholz is not looking that great lately. He's solid, but he's not looking like a #1. He may not be an ideal #2 either. In his last 8 starts he has pitched to his season ERA of 4.16. Maybe that is what he is -- a low 4 ERA starter. That's solid, but not a #1 or 2.

[rjortiz]

Buchholz has never been an ace. This thread title is ridiculous. There may be 10 pitchers in all of baseball that should have that distinction.

[Palodios]

Buchholz is not looking that great lately. He's solid, but he's not looking like a #1. He may not be an ideal #2 either. In his last 8 starts he has pitched to his season ERA of 4.16. Maybe that is what he is -- a low 4 ERA starter. That's solid, but not a #1 or 2.

 

Before tonight's game, here are his stats from the last four months:

 

June, , 2.40 ERA, 7.50 innings per start.

July, 2.45 ERA, 7.38 innings per start.

August, 3.72 ERA, 7.28 innings per start.

September 2.43 ERA, 7.46 innings per start.

 

Low ERA, insanely high inning numbers. So essentially you pick an arbitrary sample and it shows that he's not an elite pitcher? This is exactly what drives me crazy. He's been sheer and utterly dominant the second half of this season. Period.

[a700hitter]

Before tonight's game, here are his stats from the last four months:

 

June, , 2.40 ERA, 7.50 innings per start.

July, 2.45 ERA, 7.38 innings per start.

August, 3.72 ERA, 7.28 innings per start.

September 2.43 ERA, 7.46 innings per start.

 

Low ERA, insanely high inning numbers. So essentially you pick an arbitrary sample and it shows that he's not an elite pitcher? This is exactly what drives me crazy. He's been sheer and utterly dominant the second half of this season. Period.

I didn't pick anything arbitrary. I looked at his last 8 starts. I didn't pick starts in the middle of the season or cherry pick 8 starts. I just looked at his most recent performance, and I was surprised that his ERA in those starts is almost exactly at his season ERA. I think he is a solid pitcher, but I am not sure that I would want go so far as calling him "sheerand uterly dominant". I think that is an overstatement.

[Palodios]

I didn't pick anything arbitrary. I looked at his last 8 starts. I didn't pick starts in the middle of the season or cherry pick 8 starts. I just looked at his most recent performance, and I was surprised that his ERA in those starts is almost exactly at his season ERA. I think he is a solid pitcher, but I am not sure that I would want go so far as calling him "sheerand uterly dominant". I think that is an overstatement.

 

If an ERA in the mid to high 2s, at 7.4 innings per game isn't good enough for you....

 

Honestly man, Pedro isn't walking through that door. He's gone. He ain't coming back. Buchholz is the best this team's got.

[a700hitter]

Before tonight's game, here are his stats from the last four months:

 

June, , 2.40 ERA, 7.50 innings per start.

July, 2.45 ERA, 7.38 innings per start.

August, 3.72 ERA, 7.28 innings per start.

September 2.43 ERA, 7.46 innings per start.

 

Low ERA, insanely high inning numbers. So essentially you pick an arbitrary sample and it shows that he's not an elite pitcher? This is exactly what drives me crazy. He's been sheer and utterly dominant the second half of this season. Period.

He started very poorly for a two month period. His last 8 starts have been very mediocre so it looks like his finish will be mediocre. He was excellent in the middle months, but the season should be looked at in the totality. You can't exclude the beginning or the end. He is what he did over the whole season. A guy with a 4.16 ERA is not "sheer(ly) and utterly dominant." That's just ridiculous.

[a700hitter]

If an ERA in the mid to high 2s, at 7.4 innings per game isn't good enough for you....

 

Honestly man, Pedro isn't walking through that door. He's gone. He ain't coming back. Buchholz is the best this team's got.

He didn't do that over the course of the season. He pitched to a low 4's ERA. Pedro would throw himself off a cliff out of shame and humiliation if he put up those numbers. 4.16 is solid but not "utterly dominant" Calling it "utterly dominant", my friend is utterly absurd.

[Palodios]

He started very poorly for a two month period. His last 8 starts have been very mediocre so it looks like his finish will be mediocre. He was excellent in the middle months, but the season should be looked at in the totality. You can't exclude the beginning or the end. He is what he did over the whole season. A guy with a 4.16 ERA is not "sheer(ly) and utterly dominant." That's just ridiculous.

 

I'm not excluding the end. If you include tonight's start, this is how his last four months have gone. Those are still very very good.

 

June, , 2.40 ERA, 7.50 innings per start.

July, 2.45 ERA, 7.38 innings per start.

August, 3.72 ERA, 7.28 innings per start.

September 2.97 ERA, 7.17 innings per start.

 

He compares to to Verlander, Felix, and the best of them over the last four months of the year. And none of them pitch in Fenway every other start.

[a700hitter]

I'm not excluding the end. If you include tonight's start, this is how his last four months have gone. Those are still very very good.

 

June, , 2.40 ERA, 7.50 innings per start.

July, 2.45 ERA, 7.38 innings per start.

August, 3.72 ERA, 7.28 innings per start.

September 2.97 ERA, 7.17 innings per start.

 

He compares to to Verlander, Felix, and the best of them over the last four months of the year. And none of them pitch in Fenway every other start.

You are not excluding the end, but you are excluding the first two months. Maybe that was a blip in his career. We will see. Like I said, he is solid. I don't know if I would call him a dominant pitcher. You put up the thread. Where do you stand? Would you be comfortable next season with Buchholz as the number 1 and Lester number 2.

 

Who would round out that rotation ...Lackey Doubront and Morales?

 

BTW: If you excluded Verlander's and King Felix's worst 2 months there ERA's would be minuscule.

[Palodios]

You are not excluding the end, but you are excluding the first two months. Maybe that was a blip in his career. We will see. Like I said, he is solid. I don't know if I would call him a dominant pitcher. You put up the thread. Where do you stand? Would you be comfortable next season with Buchholz as the number 1 and Lester number 2.

 

Who would round out that rotation ...Lackey Doubront and Morales?

 

BTW: If you excluded Verlander's and King Felix's worst 2 months there ERA's would be minuscule.

 

Buchholz hadn't pitched in almost a year, and was recovering from a serious back injury. Once he got it together, he pitcher just as well as he did in 2010 and 2011. I voted that he's too inconsistent and the jury is out. I see him as an elite #2 pitcher going into 2013, behind someone like Johnson/Lincecum/Peavy, but if he pitches like he has at the end of this year, I'd be fine with him as a #1.

[a700hitter]

Buchholz hadn't pitched in almost a year, and was recovering from a serious back injury. Once he got it together, he pitcher just as well as he did in 2010 and 2011. I voted that he's too inconsistent and the jury is out. I see him as an elite #2 pitcher going into 2013, behind someone like Johnson/Lincecum/Peavy, but if he pitches like he has at the end of this year, I'd be fine with him as a #1.

If you would be fine with him as your #1, what would the rest of the rotation look like?

[Taz]

Not a number 1, but completely OK with him being the Number 2 going into 2013. I think the team would be greatly enhanced by the addition of a genuine ace & further, will help Buchholz to continue to improve & potentially become an ace in his own right.

[iortiz]

He needs to show consistency and durability, say a couple of years in a row, till then, we need a #1 and a #2, otherwise we will be a mediocre team again. I would't gamble another season with Buch and Lester as #1 and #2 regardless the #3-#5 would be a whole mystery... again.

[a700hitter]

He needs to show consistency and durability, say a couple of years in a row, till then, we need a #1 and a #2, otherwise we will be a mediocre team again. I would't gamble another season with Buch and Lester as #1 and #2 regardless the #3-#5 would be a whole mystery... again.

He's not sheerly and utterly dominating in your opinion?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Buch isn't an ace. He's been phenomenal since that bad start to the season (3.19 ERA since his 7th start). I think it's fair to attribute his poor start to his back problems and some rust from not throwing in ages.

 

But, he's not an ace. But if you go into next season with an ace and Buchholz as your #2 starter, you're in good shape from a pitching perspective.

 

And I'm still not sure why so many people are just refusing to include De La Rosa in the pitching plans for next season. Pitching in the #4/5 slot with ace upside, that's a good situation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ace upside while recovering from TJS and having proven he cannot locate. The guy will be in the discussion, but anyone expecting him to be dominant out the gate will likely be left out in the rain. I still think the kid ends up as your setup man next yr by yrs end.

[iortiz]

He's not sheerly and utterly dominating in your opinion?

 

 

Well, he has showed flashes that can perform as an ace but he hasn't showed durability and consistency like Verlander, Felix, Hammels, etc. He simply is not in that level yet.

 

As I said, do whatever it takes to land an ace and a solid #2 and build the pitching staff around them.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ace upside while recovering from TJS and having proven he cannot locate. The guy will be in the discussion, but anyone expecting him to be dominant out the gate will likely be left out in the rain. I still think the kid ends up as your setup man next yr by yrs end.

 

Location comes with experience, especially his offspeed stuff. Cliff Lee had a 4.14 BB/9 in the minors. De La Rosa is only 24 years old. He's walked 4.00 per 9 in his entire MiLB career.

 

4.0 career BB/9 as a 22 year old is a pretty far cry from "having proven he cannot locate"

 

Oh and he will be a full year and a half removed from TJS by the time ST rolls around.

 

If he was on the Yankees, you'd be proclaiming him as the next Roger Clemens.

[SoxFanForsyth]

 

Well, he has showed flashes that can perform as an ace but he hasn't showed durability and consistency like Verlander, Felix, Hammels, etc. He simply is not in that level yet.

 

As I said, do whatever it takes to land an ace and a solid #2 and build the pitching staff around them.

 

There's a thin line you have to walk this offseason between going for it in 2013 and keeping your prospects for beyond.

 

For example, lets say Felix comes available. We'd all s*** our pants to have him. But what if the Mariners said "Felix for Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and De La Rosa".

 

I'd turn it down. This team needs a hell of a lot more than 1 ace to turn it around. And a lot of the guys you'd be trading would be guys you need going forward to build a consistent winner, not a 1 and done.

[a700hitter]

There's a thin line you have to walk this offseason between going for it in 2013 and keeping your prospects for beyond.

 

For example, lets say Felix comes available. We'd all s*** our pants to have him. But what if the Mariners said "Felix for Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and De La Rosa".

 

I'd turn it down. This team needs a hell of a lot more than 1 ace to turn it around. And a lot of the guys you'd be trading would be guys you need going forward to build a consistent winner, not a 1 and done.

I'd give them Bradley, Barnes and De La Rosa and never look back. I am not convinced that any of our pitching prospects will ever amount to anything other than bottom of the rotation pitchers.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'd give them Bradley, Barnes and De La Rosa and never look back. I am not convinced that any of our pitching prospects will ever amount to anything other than bottom of the rotation pitchers.

 

De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes, and Owens all project to be top of the rotation starters.

[a700hitter]

De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes, and Owens all project to be top of the rotation starters.

We can dream, but I will not believe that until i see it.