Red Sox 2012 Season Overview

[Bellhorn04]

I haven't seen a thread for general discussion of the 2012 season but I thought it might be useful to have one to talk about the big picture - roster construction, overall performance, trends and developments etc.

 

For starters, I did a quick analysis of some numbers that I think are pretty revealing about where our problems have been so far. I don't think of any of this is shocking news because anyone who's following the games has a sense of it. But when you see the hard cold numbers sometimes it really clarifies things.

 

Red Sox

W-L 11-12

Runs scored 130 5.65 per game

Times scoring 10 or more runs 7

Record in games scoring 5 runs or less 2-10

 

Rays

W-L 16-8

Runs scored 109 4.54 per game

Times scoring 10 or more runs 1

Record in games scoring 5 runs or less 10-8

 

Orioles

W-L 15-9

Runs scored 103 4.29 per game

Times scoring 10 or more runs 2

Record in games scoring 5 runs or less 9-9

 

It's not even 1/6 of the schedule yet and obviously things could improve, but so far the trend is ominous. We're scoring a pile of runs, but many of the runs are coming in blowouts. We have a lot of trouble winning if we don't score more than 5 runs. The Rays and Orioles, meanwhile, are getting it done while putting considerably fewer total runs on the board.

[iortiz]

You do not have to reinvent warm water in order to know that our problem is at pitching. We all knew that since last year ended. Our FO decided go like this, fine... But for back to back year, we are an unbalanced team again. Sure, it is still early and some injured players will come back and could help us in the mid-season. As I've been saying, my major concern is how they are going to come back in both health and abilities. Look at Buch, he is not at 100% of his abilities and nobody knows if he is going to be ok at some point.

 

Anyway, let's hope that our pitching staff bring a lot more to the table.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sean McAdam ‏ @Sean_McAdam

 

#RedSoxTalk Source: Will Middlebrooks on his way to Boston http://ow.ly/aEJEe #RedSox

 

BOSTON – Third baseman Will Middlebrooks is on his way to Boston, according to a source. Middlebrooks is traveling from Toledo where Triple-A Pawtucket Is playing.

 

Middlebrooks could be activated or kept in the wings, depending on the Red Sox’ need. Third baseman Kevin Youkilis has missed the last three games with an ailing back.

 

Middlebrooks, 23, is batting .333, with 9 home runs, 27 RBI, a .380 on-base percentage, and .677 slugging percentage in 24 games with Pawtucket. He also has three stolen bases in four attempts.

 

FINALLY!!!!!!!!!

[redsoxbeatz]

Holy s***, he better get called up so they can put Punto in front of the firing squad.

 

So our pitching is mediocre @ best. That's not news.

[SoxFanForsyth]

By the way, that whole "5 runs or less" is very deceiving. The Sox have scored 3 runs or less in 11 games, going 1-10.

 

Most teams are going to have an extremely bad record in games where they score 3 or fewer runs.

[kapsis21]

attaboy i want to see Middlebrooks play..

[Bellhorn04]

By the way, that whole "5 runs or less" is very deceiving. The Sox have scored 3 runs or less in 11 games, going 1-10.

 

Most teams are going to have an extremely bad record in games where they score 3 or fewer runs.

 

I know that the 5 or less is an arbitrary number. I think that as the season goes on and the sample gets bigger these numbers will be more meaningful. And other people will probably come up with other ways to analyze things.

 

I would point out though, that the Rays and Orioles each have 5 wins in games where they have scored 3 runs or less.

[SoxFanForsyth]

attaboy i want to see Middlebrooks play..

 

I'm actually going to the game tonight. I'm so pumped to get to see WMB in his first game!!!!!

 

Nick Cafardo ‏ @nickcafardo

 

Will Middlebrooks and aaron cook will be up. Corresponding move(s) to come.

[FredLynn]

I know that the 5 or less is an arbitrary number. I think that as the season goes on and the sample gets bigger these numbers will be more meaningful. And other people will probably come up with other ways to analyze things.

 

I would point out though, that the Rays and Orioles each have 5 wins in games where they have scored 3 runs or less.

 

No surprise there. Those are two teams with great pitching. The Orioles right now are #2 in the AL, and although the Rays are #7, that number is distorted by the beating they took in a few games at the Red Sox hands. Since our pitching as it is now constructed stinks for the most part, we won't be winning many games that we don't bludgeon our opponents to death.

[User Name]

No surprise there. Those are two teams with great pitching. The Orioles right now are #2 in the AL' date=' and although the Rays are #7, that number is distorted by the beating they took in a few games at the Red Sox hands. Since our pitching as it is now constructed stinks for the most part, we won't be winning many games that we don't bludgeon our opponents to death.[/quote']

 

Did you seriously just say the Orioles are a team with great pitching? That's absolutely ridiculous, and an example of both why small samples can't be trusted and how ridiculous you can be sometimes when criticizing the Red Sox pumpsie.

[kapsis21]

I'm actually going to the game tonight. I'm so pumped to get to see WMB in his first game!!!!!

 

you sir suck! :thumbdown rubbing salt in my wounds.... take your mojo will ya!:thumbsup::thumbsup:

[FredLynn]

Did you seriously just say the Orioles are a team with great pitching? That's absolutely ridiculous' date=' and an example of both why small samples can't be trusted and how ridiculous you can be sometimes when criticizing the Red Sox pumpsie.[/quote']

 

Right now, they do. Stats suck, eh? Let me repeat this: right now, the Orioles have the second best pitching ERA in the AL. Thats why they win games when scoring fewer than 4 runs. Now that could (and likely will) change. But thats the way it is right now.

[MANNYHOF24]

How can people be so hard on a team that has won 7 out of their last 9 games?

[mvp 78]

How can people be so hard on a team that has won 7 out of their last 9 games?

 

Some people relish when the Sox are doing poorly. When thr Sox do well, those same people enjoy being wet blankets.

 

Yes, it's a cupcake schedule right now. However, the Sox haven't always taken care of business against weaker teams in the past.

[BornToRun]

Did you seriously just say the Orioles are a team with great pitching? That's absolutely ridiculous' date=' and an example of both why small samples can't be trusted and how ridiculous you can be sometimes when criticizing the Red Sox pumpsie.[/quote']

 

Seriously I can't see how a rotation such as ours can be called s***** pitching. The bullpen has been better as of late. People are just trying to cling to their pessimistic viewpoints so that they can say they were right. We aren't in nearly as bad of shape as your think we were with the way some people are talking.

[User Name]

Right now' date=' they do. Stats suck, eh? Let me repeat this: right now, the Orioles have the second best pitching ERA in the AL. Thats why they win games when scoring fewer than 4 runs. Now that could (and likely will) change. But thats the way it is right now.[/quote']

 

You don't seem to understand the term "small sample". Do you know how many times in the last decade the Orioles present "solid pitching" through the first month/month and a half only to start playing to their talent level and end up in last place? Stop it.

 

I love the "stats suck" part, because of how ridiculous it is.

[Laser Show]

Right now' date=' they do. Stats suck, eh? Let me repeat this: right now, the Orioles have the second best pitching ERA in the AL. Thats why they win games when scoring fewer than 4 runs. Now that could (and likely will) change. But thats the way it is right now.[/quote']

 

So do you think Darnell McDonald is a better hitter than Albert Pujols? That's what the first month of the season has shown us, so it must be true.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So do you think Darnell McDonald is a better hitter than Albert Pujols? That's what the first month of the season has shown us' date=' so it must be true.[/quote']

 

Yup.

 

Apparently, the following is true because you can easily extrapolate a full seasons worth of data and project performance based on April.

 

1. Mike Aviles is going to hit 37 HR and drive in 140 Runs.

2. Albert Pujols is going to hit .208 with a .547 OPS. He won't hit a HR, and he will drive in 34 runs.

3. Clay Buchholz will be a 21 game winner this year with an ERA over 8.50.

4. Josh Hamilton is going to hit .395 with 67 HR and 185 RBI.

5. Matt Kemp is going to hit 82 HR.

[User Name]

So do you think Darnell McDonald is a better hitter than Albert Pujols? That's what the first month of the season has shown us' date=' so it must be true.[/quote']

 

And Mark Teixeira, and Robinson Cano. Also, Yadier Molina is the best offensive catcher in the league, and Jose Altuve is a one-man wrecking crew. SSS ftw!

[a700hitter]

So do you think Darnell McDonald is a better hitter than Albert Pujols? That's what the first month of the season has shown us' date=' so it must be true.[/quote']I wouldn't go that far, but he is clearly better than Bobby Abreu.

[Laser Show]

Yup.

 

Apparently, the following is true because you can easily extrapolate a full seasons worth of data and project performance based on April.

 

1. Mike Aviles is going to hit 37 HR and drive in 140 Runs.

2. Albert Pujols is going to hit .208 with a .547 OPS. He won't hit a HR, and he will drive in 34 runs.

3. Clay Buchholz will be a 21 game winner this year with an ERA over 8.50.

4. Josh Hamilton is going to hit .395 with 67 HR and 185 RBI.

5. Matt Kemp is going to hit 82 HR.

 

I'd love to see that!

[jung]

Geez we have some bull pen issues but it is hard to swallow the idea that our starting pitching has stunk. There has been a blow up game here and there but holy cow.....stunk???? I would have to say that the rotation has been a pleasant surprise. How much better would they have had to pitch to be "impressive"? I don't really understand what more we could ask for. Buch has had problems that seem to run deeper than a blow up game here and there. Granted Doubront and Bard will likely run into an innings ceiling but I am not inclined to buy the idea that 150 innings is a hard ceiling. Also we have dice coming and Cook is going to at least get a shot at a time when he really does not have to face the metal of the division.

 

I guess I can buy the argument that there might be some issues for which the Sox don't really have an answer later this season. That is a possibility. But if you are not impressed with what they have been able to do to date...shot I don't know what more to have expected.

[FredLynn]

Interesting comments. Apparently I misremembered something here...or more accurately, I should have phrased my comments about the Orioles/Rays pitching and our own pitching as follows: RIGHT NOW the Orioles have been pitching well and our pitching has stunk. That is a true statement. The Rays pitching has been mediocre, but their team ERA is warped by a couple of woodshed jobs at the hands of the Red Sox. I prefer to base my opinions on real statistics rather than how I wish things were and I recognize the fact that some people don't like the statistics I choose. In that case, find your own statistics. Opinions are generally more valid if they can be substantiated in some way with facts.

[User Name]

Fact: Right now, Yadier Molina has better numbers than Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Justin Upton and Giancarlo Stanton.

 

Is that indicative of true talent level? No. And even mentioning it borders on the ridiculous.

 

Also, the whole "Rays ERA is warped" is a contradiction of the very point you're trying to make. Which i find very amusing.

[jung]

Well I have to admit that my expectations may not have been as high as others and as such it might be easier for the starters to be meeting my expectations.

 

I have never felt that Lester has pitched like a 1 either this year or last so I have not been disappointed in Lester so far. In fact if only marginally, Lester has pitched a little better than I had expected

I think Beckett is a solid 2 and he is pitching like it at least to me

I think Buch has got some issues and I have said so since before the season started so I have really not been as surprised as some might be

 

and:

 

I think Doubront and Bard no longer have those big question marks over their heads as they have pitched really well as the 4 and 5. It will be interesting to see what happens as their innings pile up but I don't think 150 is a hard ceiling. In any event I had high hopes for those two guys and they have not disappointed me at all so far. They have been better than I expected given the circumstances. They have sort of been thrown into the deep end of the pool and have come up swimming! I mean there was legitimate concern expressed here that they would flop. They sure in heck have not flopped.

 

I remain convinced that this is a team designed to win games with its offense. So that by itself should say something about my expectations for the other end of the equation.

[FredLynn]

Fact: Right now, Yadier Molina has better numbers than Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Justin Upton and Giancarlo Stanton.

 

Is that indicative of true talent level? No. And even mentioning it borders on the ridiculous.

 

Also, the whole "Rays ERA is warped" is a contradiction of the very point you're trying to make. Which i find very amusing.

 

"You are what your record says you are"

 

Wise words. Yes, right now Yadier Molina is a better player than all of those guys. I expect that will change. I also expect that the Orioles pitching will deteriorate to reach its usual abyssmal level. Bellhorn was noting that the Orioles and Rays have each won five games in which they scored fewer than four runs and we have won just once. I commented on what I think is the reason behind our failure to win those types of games: crappy pitching. Thats usually the reason for that kind of trend, wouldn't you agree?

[Bellhorn04]

I had to look at this a few times before I could believe it, but the Orioles have a group of 4 relievers-Johnson, O'Day, Ayala and Lindstrom, who have combined to give up 1 (one) earned run in 43 innings.

[User Name]

"You are what your record says you are"

 

Wise words. Yes, right now Yadier Molina is a better player than all of those guys. I expect that will change. I also expect that the Orioles pitching will deteriorate to reach its usual abyssmal level. Bellhorn was noting that the Orioles and Rays have each won five games in which they scored fewer than four runs and we have won just once. I commented on what I think is the reason behind our failure to win those types of games: crappy pitching. Thats usually the reason for that kind of trend, wouldn't you agree?

 

A "trend" can be established in the month of April? News to me.

[iortiz]

"You are what your record says you are"

 

Wise words. Yes, right now Yadier Molina is a better player than all of those guys. I expect that will change. I also expect that the Orioles pitching will deteriorate to reach its usual abyssmal level. Bellhorn was noting that the Orioles and Rays have each won five games in which they scored fewer than four runs and we have won just once. I commented on what I think is the reason behind our failure to win those types of games: crappy pitching. Thats usually the reason for that kind of trend, wouldn't you agree?

 

I think he doesn't understand what you are trying saying. Let me see if I can help.

 

Nobody is saying that the O's will stay like this all season long (or atleast very unlikely). Correct me if I am wrong but, All you are saying is that they are where they are because their pitching have been very good, an that's it. If I'm reading well, I do not know why to debate on this because you are right.

[User Name]

I think he doesn't understand what you are trying saying. Let me see if I can help.

 

Nobody is saying that the O's will stay like this all season long (or atleast very unlikely). Correct me if I am wrong but, All you are saying is that they are where they are because their pitching have been very good, an that's it. If I'm reading well, I do not know why to debate on this because you are right.

 

I'm not debating the fact that the Orioles have had good pitching. I'm debating the inconsistencies encountered in using it to criticize the Sox pitching staff given the size of the sample, and the inconsistencies in the argument. You can't criticize the sample (Rays pitching looks bad because of they got beat up a couple days by the Sox) then on the same sentence defend the current Orioles standing (You are what the record says you are). Consistency.

 

No offense, but if you don't understand what's being argued, why comment?