Beckett Questionable to Start the Season

[Station 13]

and Papelbon still blew some bad games against Orioles when it mattered.. so sometimes not all the time we need to look beyond the numbers.

 

Blown games are blown games. All closer blow games. Rivera has allowed more career HRs to the Orioles than any other team.

 

But a turd like Valvede is not that good as some think he is.

 

A strand rate of 83%. He better sacrifice more goats to the baseball gods.

[kapsis21]

Blown games are blown games. All closer blow games. Rivera has allowed more career HRs to the Orioles than any other team.

 

But a turd like Valvede is not that good as some think he is.

 

A strand rate of 83%. He better sacrifice more goats to the baseball gods.

 

LOL.

 

but Valverde didnt blow a single game dating back to 2010 should count for something i know what you mean by he is not that good but he got the job done all of last year.. cmon man a high pitch count for his top starter or a guy who didnt blow a save all year.. it was a simple pick..

[User Name]

LOL.

 

but Valverde didnt blow a single game dating back to 2010 should count for something i know what you mean by he is not that good but he got the job done all of last year.. cmon man a high pitch count for his top starter or a guy who didnt blow a save all year.. it was a simple pick..

 

You do know that Valverde lost 4 games last year and in at least three more games let the go-ahead run score after entering a tie game and had to be bailed out by the offense? That is also part of the definition of "blown games" by a closer.

 

In fact, one of those games he blew last year was to the Red Sox, when Ortiz hit a HR off him in a tie ballgame for the go-ahead run. Remember it like it was yesterday.

 

Valverde is simply not that good. He's good, and lucky. But not as good as you portray him.

[example1]

I wouldn't argue that Valverde is a great closer. At the same, is there any dispute that hes in the 2nd tier of closers, behind maybe Papelbon and Rivera? If that's the case then the closers market is extremely, EXTREMELY volatile and probably not worth spending a shitload of money on. Even Papelbon had questionable outings throughout the years.

 

I would argue that the mere existence of Mariano Rivera makes people grossly misinterpret the value of closers. He's virtually perfect, so it makes people think that others can be that way too. Even Papelbon was a tier below Mo. Mo might be the most effective pitcher of all time.

[kapsis21]

You do know that Valverde lost 4 games last year and in at least three more games let the go-ahead run score after entering a tie game and had to be bailed out by the offense? That is also part of the definition of "blown games" by a closer.

 

In fact, one of those games he blew last year was to the Red Sox, when Ortiz hit a HR off him in a tie ballgame for the go-ahead run. Remember it like it was yesterday.

 

Valverde is simply not that good. He's good, and lucky. But not as good as you portray him.

 

i just said in my comment above he is not good but gets the job done.. i remember Ortiz's HR too the exact way you do..

i am not portraying him as the best, but i am saying starter goes 8 inning 2 run lead. that is what the closer is in there for.

[User Name]

i just said in my comment above he is not good but gets the job done.. i remember Ortiz's HR too the exact way you do..

i am not portraying him as the best, but i am saying starter goes 8 inning 2 run lead. that is what the closer is in there for.

 

My point of contention is with "gets the job done". If you screw up ten games one way or another, then you're not really "getting the job done" so frequently.

 

Also, thinking that closers are only there to protect leads in the ninth is a common misconception. They are supposed to be the best pitcher in the bullpen who not only preserves leads, but also preserve ties and get out of jams left by lesser relievers, two things Valverde is absolutely awful at.

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't argue that Valverde is a great closer. At the same, is there any dispute that hes in the 2nd tier of closers, behind maybe Papelbon and Rivera? If that's the case then the closers market is extremely, EXTREMELY volatile and probably not worth spending a shitload of money on. Even Papelbon had questionable outings throughout the years.

 

I would argue that the mere existence of Mariano Rivera makes people grossly misinterpret the value of closers. He's virtually perfect, so it makes people think that others can be that way too. Even Papelbon was a tier below Mo. Mo might be the most effective pitcher of all time.

I think you are straining to help yourself feel better about the fact that we have no closer. You may be able to make yourself feel better in this manner, but it doesn't work for me. Papelbon, with the exception of 2010, was very reliable. The same goes for Valverde. He too had one bad year but he has been very reliable every other season. These guys save 30+ games each year and they lock down around 90% of their save opportunities every year. That's not volatile, and although Valverde is an a--hole but he is not second tier. Brad Lidge, Houston Street and even KRod are volatile. Mo, Papelbon and Valverde are reliable and consistent and not volatile It's a small class of reliable consistent closers. We don't have one at the moment, and I don't feel good about it.

[iortiz]

I think you are straining to help yourself feel better about the fact that we have no closer. You may be able to make yourself feel better in this manner' date=' but it doesn't work for me. Papelbon, with the exception of 2010, was very reliable. The same goes for Valverde. He too had one bad year but he has been very reliable every other season. These guys save 30+ games each year and they lock down around 90% of their save opportunities every year. That's not volatile, and although Valverde is an a--hole but he is not second tier. Brad Lidge, Houston Street and even KRod are volatile. Mo, Papelbon and Valverde are reliable and consistent and not volatile It's a small class of reliable consistent closers. We don't have one at the moment, and I don't feel good about it.[/quote']

 

Through 8 yrs he has a 2.32 ERA, pitched constantly 60+ IP, 35+ SV.

He is 30 YO. He is healthy. He is more expirienced. He closed in arguably the toughest division in baseball. He'll do better in the NLE, if you ask me. He could end up his career putting something around Mo's numbers. Some say it's impossible. We'll see.

 

Some say that closers are just relievers, and overrated. Find me a decent sample of closers with those characteristics and failed in their next four years and we can start a case, otherwise the discussion is a waste of time IMO.

 

Compare guys like Bailey, Melancon, etc with him is just not fair.

[kapsis21]

My point of contention is with "gets the job done". If you screw up ten games one way or another, then you're not really "getting the job done" so frequently.

 

Also, thinking that closers are only there to protect leads in the ninth is a common misconception. They are supposed to be the best pitcher in the bullpen who not only preserves leads, but also preserve ties and get out of jams left by lesser relievers, two things Valverde is absolutely awful at.

 

lets compare 2011 stats

Jose Valverde (2-4)

ER 2.24 Games Started 75 Games Finished 70 Saves 49 Innings 72.1 Hits52 Runs21 ER 18 HR 5 BB 34 WHIP 1.189

 

Jonathan Papelbon (4-1)

ER 2.94 Games Started63 Games Finished54 Saves 31 Innings 64.1 Hits50 Runs22 ER 21 HR 3 BB10 WHIP 0933

 

both are equally affective in my eyes

[example1]

I think you are straining to help yourself feel better about the fact that we have no closer. You may be able to make yourself feel better in this manner' date=' but it doesn't work for me. Papelbon, with the exception of 2010, was very reliable. The same goes for Valverde. He too had one bad year but he has been very reliable every other season. These guys save 30+ games each year and they lock down around 90% of their save opportunities every year. That's not volatile, and although Valverde is an a--hole but he is not second tier. Brad Lidge, Houston Street and even KRod are volatile. Mo, Papelbon and Valverde are reliable and consistent and not volatile It's a small class of reliable consistent closers. We don't have one at the moment, and I don't feel good about it.[/quote']

 

I'm surprised you are making the argument that Valverde is in the same class as Papelbon. I don't think there's any doubt that Papelbon is an elite closer, I don't think I would put Valverde there. Papelbon's numbers are better in terms of ERA+, WHIP, BB and K/BB. He's had 4 of 6 recent seasons with a WHIP under 1, which means you just don't get on base against the guy very often. Valverde is consistently pushing 1.2, which is still good, but not elite.

 

No team should pay Valverde like the Phillies paid Papelbon.

[a700hitter]

I'm surprised you are making the argument that Valverde is in the same class as Papelbon. I don't think there's any doubt that Papelbon is an elite closer, I don't think I would put Valverde there. Papelbon's numbers are better in terms of ERA+, WHIP, BB and K/BB. He's had 4 of 6 recent seasons with a WHIP under 1, which means you just don't get on base against the guy very often. Valverde is consistently pushing 1.2, which is still good, but not elite.

 

No team should pay Valverde like the Phillies paid Papelbon.

I'd rate Papelbon over Valverde for the reasons you cited, but just because I would put Papelbon ahead of Valverde doesn't mean that Valverde should get dropped to second tier. Despite the extra basrunners, Valverde has been very consistent at getting the job done over an extended period. It may be ugly at times, but he does get the job done.

[seabeachfred]

I think you are straining to help yourself feel better about the fact that we have no closer. You may be able to make yourself feel better in this manner' date=' but it doesn't work for me. Papelbon, with the exception of 2010, was very reliable. The same goes for Valverde. He too had one bad year but he has been very reliable every other season. These guys save 30+ games each year and they lock down around 90% of their save opportunities every year. That's not volatile, and although Valverde is an a--hole but he is not second tier. Brad Lidge, Houston Street and even KRod are volatile. Mo, Papelbon and Valverde are reliable and consistent and not volatile It's a small class of reliable consistent closers. We don't have one at the moment, and I don't feel good about it.[/quote']

 

Whether EX1 or others are straining themselves to feel better or not, there are excuses and rationalizations flying off this thread like a monsoon in Thailand. It doesn't work for me either Ted, and the fact is we have no closer and none of us should feel good about that. In fact , I think the whole bullpen is suspect but I can't go farther than suspect after only one miserable performance. By the end of April we will know more. Perhaps the pen will take form and we will get some pleasant surprises. If not, we better batten down the hatches and get ready for very rough ride.

[a700hitter]

Whether EX1 or others are straining themselves to feel better or not' date=' there are excuses and rationalizations flying off this thread like a monsoon in Thailand. It doesn't work for me either Ted, and the fact is we have no closer and none of us should feel good about that. In fact , I think the whole bullpen is suspect but I can't go farther than suspect after only one miserable performance. By the end of April we will know more. Perhaps the pen will take form and we will get some pleasant surprises. If not, we better batten down the hatches and get ready for very rough ride.[/quote']As long time Mets announcer, Bob Murphy used to say when a tight game went to the 9th inning with the Mets in the lead, "Fasten Your Seatbelts!"

[example1]

Whether EX1 or others are straining themselves to feel better or not' date=' there are excuses and rationalizations flying off this thread like a monsoon in Thailand. It doesn't work for me either Ted, and the fact is we have no closer and none of us should feel good about that. In fact , I think the whole bullpen is suspect but I can't go farther than suspect after only one miserable performance. By the end of April we will know more. Perhaps the pen will take form and we will get some pleasant surprises. If not, we better batten down the hatches and get ready for very rough ride.[/quote']

 

I don't have to "strain myself" to feel better after one game of the season. I don't feel BAD after one game of the season, EVER, because we are 1/162nd of the way through the season.

 

It might be telling, Fred, that you think it is natural to be freaking out at the .6% mark. The Sox may have to take action about this, but giving them space to do so doesn't mean I'm straining to see the situation positively.

[User Name]

lets compare 2011 stats

Jose Valverde (2-4)

ER 2.24 Games Started 75 Games Finished 70 Saves 49 Innings 72.1 Hits52 Runs21 ER 18 HR 5 BB 34 WHIP 1.189

 

Jonathan Papelbon (4-1)

ER 2.94 Games Started63 Games Finished54 Saves 31 Innings 64.1 Hits50 Runs22 ER 21 HR 3 BB10 WHIP 0933

 

both are equally affective in my eyes

 

One "blew" 11 games.

 

One "blew" less than 5.

 

The "my eyes" is the problem here. Personal experience is biased.

 

Also, how can they be "equally effective" when one is clearly superior statistically to the other?

[mvp 78]

Back to the original topic:

 

Will Beckett be limited tomorrow because of the thumb?

[User Name]

Back to the original topic:

 

Will Beckett be limited tomorrow because of the thumb?

 

If he's had issues with the same thumb for 18 months and he had the stellar season he had with it, why should he be?

[jung]

Whatever kinda' shot he has been getting must be something that does not numb the thumb or cause him lost sensitivity. Hard to imagine he could throw that well if he could not feel the thumb on the ball and obviously he has already pitched a bunch with it if he has had it for eighteen months.

[jung]

I sort of wish that this Saturday game coming up was a night game. Seems to me that either Sweeney is really much more uncomfortable as a right fielder as I thought he would be or he was just fighting the sun all day on Thursday. If he was not fighting the sun then he was fighting the ball. If he plays every game like that eventually he is going to get do-inked right of the head with a pop fly.

 

Not sure how the heck he has made it this far with only four outfield errors for the career but while the stats may not accurately reflect what a player will or can do, they don't lie either.

[seabeachfred]

I don't have to "strain myself" to feel better after one game of the season. I don't feel BAD after one game of the season, EVER, because we are 1/162nd of the way through the season.

 

It might be telling, Fred, that you think it is natural to be freaking out at the .6% mark. The Sox may have to take action about this, but giving them space to do so doesn't mean I'm straining to see the situation positively.

 

EX1, my post said "whether or not Ex1 is straining himself". I take that to mean you might be doing it or you might not be doing it. Either way, only you knew and you just told me and a700 that you are not straining. You might also feel better than the best closer in baseball history just blew a save and a game for his team.

 

You might also read my post again and only this time a little more carefully. I think I remarked that it won't be known until the end of the month if our bullpen is as s***** as I think it is. The hidden meaning was I could be wrong. Right now we don't have a credible closer, and we don't have a decent bullpen. If we see replays of this going on to the end of this month, I am going to expect y ou and others who think our bullpen woes are that much of a problem to get with the program and believe that it is a very serious problem.

 

Let me also say that the Sox WILL have to take action about our bullpen, like maybe bringing up Cook to start and sending Bard to the pen where I always thought he belonged even though I wonder if he is mentally equipped to close. He certainly has proven he can be a good set-up 8th inning man. Glad we got this thing cleared up EX.

[mvp 78]

Fred,

 

Tim Wakefield had a better WHIP, ERA, and K/BB than Aaron Cook last year.

 

Please explain why anyone would pine for him. I don't get it.

[ORS]

Fred,

 

Tim Wakefield had a better WHIP, ERA, and K/BB than Aaron Cook last year.

 

Please explain why anyone would pine for him. I don't get it.

I don't think he's pining for Cook so much as he's desperate to have Bard in the BP.

[iortiz]

Back to the original topic:

 

Will Beckett be limited tomorrow because of the thumb?

 

Hopefully he can give us at least 7 IP. If he pitches I want to believe he is ok despite his thumb.

[a700hitter]

Fred,

 

Tim Wakefield had a better WHIP, ERA, and K/BB than Aaron Cook last year.

 

Please explain why anyone would pine for him. I don't get it.

Surprisingly, 65% of the votes in the poll so far are for Cook to be promoted.

[BornToRun]

I'd like to see what he has. He had a decent spring and he's a gb pitcher. I'd give him a shot. Im skeptical about Dan starting but if he wants to and knowing his stuff, I'm not against giving him a shot. If it doesn't work out, move him back to the pen and give his spot to Aaron or maybe Padilla. See what they have left in the tank.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd like to see what he has. He had a decent spring and he's a gb pitcher. I'd give him a shot. Im skeptical about Dan starting but if he wants to and knowing his stuff' date=' I'm not against giving him a shot. If it doesn't work out, move him back to the pen and give his spot to Aaron or maybe Padilla. See what they have left in the tank.[/quote']

 

Cook was serviceable in the spring. That isnt real baseball. You need to see what he can do in the minors before making a decision. When Cook won a ton of games in Colorado, he had a nasty sinker that was sitting low 90s. Last yr, I dont think he touched 90 and he was destroyed. If he cannot throw his sinker at least in the 90 range, then he'll get destroyed in Boston and cannot be viewed as anything more than a last resort.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cook was serviceable in the spring. That isnt real baseball. You need to see what he can do in the minors before making a decision. When Cook won a ton of games in Colorado' date=' he had a nasty sinker that was sitting low 90s. Last yr, I dont think he touched 90 and he was destroyed. If he cannot throw his sinker at least in the 90 range, then he'll get destroyed in Boston and cannot be viewed as anything more than a last resort.[/quote']

 

He was sitting right at 90 during ST, and that was before he had built up any arm strength. Give him 2-3 weeks to build some arm strength and he'll probably be sitting 91-92.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Fred,

 

Tim Wakefield had a better WHIP, ERA, and K/BB than Aaron Cook last year.

 

Please explain why anyone would pine for him. I don't get it.

 

Aaron Cook has been hurt the past 2 years, which is why he's only thrown 224 innings in the past two seasons combined. This is the equivalent of saying that Beckett had a higher WHIP and ERA than Wakefield in 2010, so why should he have been good in 2011?

 

Health is a huge factor. He's come back, he's healthy now, and he's throwing the ball well. How long that lasts, who knows, but that's why he has been so successful during the spring and getting a lot of weak ground ball contact.

[SoxSport]

Bailey, the closer, is down. My arithmetic says they are short a closer--or a starter. They are a pitcher short, and they will have to take a hit either way on how they do it--unless they go out and get an Oswalt, or trade for somebody who is better than what they have.

[seabeachfred]

Fred,

 

Tim Wakefield had a better WHIP, ERA, and K/BB than Aaron Cook last year.

 

Please explain why anyone would pine for him. I don't get it.

 

Because Cook is healthy this year and he wasn't much of last year. Secondly, he pitched exceptionally well down in Florida while Bard and others didn't. To me things are so unsettled with our bullpen that while I don't "pine" for him, he would seem to be an improvement to our pitching staff---and that means Bard needs to go to the bullpen whether you want that to happen or Cherington in the GM's office. In my opinion Bard is not going to be the successful as a starter and will be returned to the bullpen anyway so why not put him there now where we need some good arms in the worst way. We've already seen that in Game No. 1.