Peering into the Pitching Garbage Pail with your Pal, Pal

[Palodios]

So the Red Sox didn't get a starter. They may get one yet, but I wanted to take a look at some of the depth guys they signed. Honestly, some of them surprised me-- they're not world beaters, but I think there is a lot more potential than we've been giving them credit for.

 

I hope this can turn into a good discussion. If you write one-liners about them being garbage, or want to spend this thread insulting Ben Cherrington, please keep it to the Offseason Thread. I don't care if you think they're garbage, but please tell us why, and back it up.

[Palodios]

Aaron Cook-- age 32 -- spent career in Colorado

Career numbers 4.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 3.8 K/9

Best season-- 2008, 16 Wins 211 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.7 WAR All-Star.

 

Wow. Aaron Cook is what this offseason experiment is all about. All it takes is one guy to match their career year, and that #5 ends up actually looking like a strength. I don't see it happening in the AL East, but 2008 wasn't all that long ago. The K/9 is concerning too, and he's only averaged 125 IP the last three years.

 

 

Vicente Padilla-- age 32-- spent most of his career in Philly and Texas.

Career numbers -- 4.31 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, 100 ERA+

Best season in the last five years-- 2010-- LAD, 4.07 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 95 IP 95 ERA+. All-star selection in 2002.

 

Career numbers are good, but he's only pitched 100 innings in the last two years, and was good for a 4.80 ERA when he was in Texas from 2006-2009.

 

 

Justin Germano--age 29-- San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinatti

Career numbers 5.02 ERA, 80ERA+, 1.38 WHIP,5.0 K/9

Best season 2007-- 4.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP 90 ERA+, 5.3 K/9

 

Not much here.

 

 

Clayton Mortensen--age 26-- STL/OAK/Col

Career Numbers-- 5.12 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 88 ERA+

Best season 2011 in Col-- 3.86 ERA 58 IP, 1.35 WHIP 117 ERA+

 

He had a good 2011, he was a first round draft pick, and he's still very young. Who knows, maybe he could turn into a solid reliever? Stranger things have happened.

[Palodios]

Carlos Silva -- Age 31-- PHI/MIN/SEA

Career -- 4.68 ERA, 93 ERA+, 4.0 K/9, 1.397 WHIP

Best season in the last five years-- 2010-- 4.22 ERA, 113 IP, 6.4 K/9, 100 ERA+

 

The stats don't look so great, but he has had some very good years, and some very bad years. In 2005 he led the league with a ridiculous 7.89 K/BB (fueled by a league leading .4 BB/9). He didn't pitch in 2011. I'd say he's a longshot.

 

John Maine -- 31-- BAl/NYM

Career 4.35 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 98 ERA+, 7.6 K/9

Best season in the last five years-- 2007-- 3.91 ERA, 191 IP, 1.350 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 110 ERA+

 

He didn't pitch in 2011 either, and very little in 2010. He got destroyed during his time in Baltimore. Another longshot.

 

Summary- I like these guys for depth. Solid #5 options. But these guys aren't going to be the solution if Lester/ Buchholz/ Beckett gets hurt or underperforms. I really can't see this team seriously considering going into the season with them, there has to be another move coming, there must be.

[jacksonianmarch]

Aaron Cook is a viable option, but his velo has to come back. Prior to his injury, he was a low 90s guy capable of running it up there as high as 94-95mph. Now, he cannot touch 90. If the velo doesnt come back, he's done. He relied on below average secondary offerings and a dynamite sinker. Without the velo, his sinker isnt as lethal and his secondary options arent strong enough to stand alone

[mvp 78]

Padilla has the best arm of all of them. He's a certifiable nutjob though. He makes Julian Tavares seem like a reasonable guy.

 

I think he has the best shot to eat up 5th starter innings (at least better than last year's versions of Wake and Lackey) but I'm not sure he can stay on his rocker long enough. Maybe just bide time til DiceK comes back?

 

I think Cooke is terrible and don't see him making the team. Maine might get rocked in AAA. The other guys are mysteries, but you never know where you'll find the next Frank Castillo.

[FredLynn]

Padilla has the best arm of all of them. He's a certifiable nutjob though. He makes Julian Tavares seem like a reasonable guy.

 

I think he has the best shot to eat up 5th starter innings (at least better than last year's versions of Wake and Lackey) but I'm not sure he can stay on his rocker long enough. Maybe just bide time til DiceK comes back?

 

I think Cooke is terrible and don't see him making the team. Maine might get rocked in AAA. The other guys are mysteries, but you never know where you'll find the next Frank Castillo.

 

I am not going to believe that Padilla is as much of a nutcase as Tavares until he rolls a ball to first base for an assist.

[jung]

Padilla might roll it to first ON THE END OF HIS NOSE! Sorry could not resist.

 

I think they might actually be walking a real tightrope here but I believe they might really be thinking dice coming back is a probability. I think dice coming back and pitching effectively in time to help is more a possibility and I would treat it as such if I were them. However seeing the way BC and V talked about it the other night I think they are in the "probability" camp.

 

So if that is really the case, then you could extend their thinking to the guys that they are bringing in thinking one of them or two of them have to get the Sox to July or something like that. But everybody else has to stay healthy for that plan to work.

 

Kind of an odd mix of philosophical approaches to building a team. Very solid on the front end while trying to sort of patch this backend together but I guess it is a consequence of the money they have poured into the team and maybe even what ownership sees as a team that just folded its tent last year.

 

I think this lack of interest in spending to patch together this back end might be as much about wanting this team to overachieve as individual players to be successful as opposed to ending up with a roster that seems so strong on paper that it allows guys to look across the room and say "Well he can do it. I am going to take a bit of rest here for now. Anybody see where my beer went?"

[Spudboy]

"Summary- I like these guys for depth. Solid #5 options. But these guys aren't going to be the solution if Lester/ Buchholz/ Beckett gets hurt or underperforms. I really can't see this team seriously considering going into the season with them, there has to be another move coming, there must be. "

 

Pal, I think this is a great idea for a thread.

 

Admittedly, I know very little about any of these guys. My take on all this is that these guys are truly here for depth purposes. The kind of depth Username (I believe) spoke of in another thread. Guys that can spend time in Pawtucket and be brought up in an hours notice for an emergency "spot" start. I do not think any of them are targeted to be a 4 or 5 starter to begin the season. At least I do not hope so! But who knows? Maybe one of them will "stick to the wall" as Jacko has said.

 

I still believe that the Sox will make a move (trade?) prior to breaking camp. We'll see.

[jung]

Ya' I think you are right Spud. The "plan" I think is still so far for both Aceves and Bard to come to ST and prepare to be starters and if nobody else beats either out then they are the 4 and the 5 in no particular order as yet.

 

One of the flies in that ointment is that you would expect short innings out of your 5 but would want to see something north of 190 out of your 4. If they do come north with both of them in the rotation, it could be tough to get more than 150 out of either of them. Then again maybe that is one of the places where the depth pitchers are supposed to come in.

[Palodios]

"Summary- I like these guys for depth. Solid #5 options. But these guys aren't going to be the solution if Lester/ Buchholz/ Beckett gets hurt or underperforms. I really can't see this team seriously considering going into the season with them, there has to be another move coming, there must be. "

 

Pal, I think this is a great idea for a thread.

 

Admittedly, I know very little about any of these guys. My take on all this is that these guys are truly here for depth purposes. The kind of depth Username (I believe) spoke of in another thread. Guys that can spend time in Pawtucket and be brought up in an hours notice for an emergency "spot" start. I do not think any of them are targeted to be a 4 or 5 starter to begin the season. At least I do not hope so! But who knows? Maybe one of them will "stick to the wall" as Jacko has said.

 

I still believe that the Sox will make a move (trade?) prior to breaking camp. We'll see.

 

Thanks! I don't know a whole lot about them either-- the majority of them pitched in the National League for a good part of their careers-- so I really only did a once-over on their stats. And here are the inhouse candidates:

 

 

Andrew Miller -- 27-- DET/FLA/BOS

Career -- 5.79 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 75 ERA+

 

Miller was a 6th overall draft pick with a lot of potential. But I think he should have not made the roster in 2012 after he failed miserably in Boston last year.

 

 

Felix Doubront -- 24 -- BOS Minors

Minimal major league experience.

Career AAA-- 3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

AA -- 3.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP 7.9 K/9

 

Honestly, I think they screwed up Doubront by converting him to a reliever. He's been as healthy as Eric Bedard ever since. I'd love to see him show up to spring training healthy and ready to take the #5 spot.

 

 

Alex Wilson -- 25-- BOS Minors

Minimal major league experience. 2011 stats:

AA 3.05 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8 K/9 in 111 IP

AAA-- 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 21 IP

 

Wilson had a very good year in the minors in 2011. Many of the reports I've heard have said he'll end up being a guy best suited for a late innings relief role, but I see no harm in letting him trying to break the starting rotation.

 

Junichi Tazawa -- 25 -- Bos Minors

Minimal major league experience. 2009 Minor league stats between AA and AAA:

2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.8 K/9

 

Tazawa lost 2010 and a good part of 2011 to Tommy John surgery. He's still very young, but most of his minor league experience has been in AAA. They rushed his development and he got lit up in the majors, but hopefully he can take some time in AAA before getting another shot.

[RiceLynnEvans]

They have a row a starters with patchy recent track records - hurt, shelled, aging. Still, I'd like to think mgm't sees something we're not, like waiting on negotiations with Oswalt and Tx and StL to come to a halt and getting him for their original offer. If not, Mortenson and Tazawa are the two I'd bet on coming thru training and making the roster as starters.

[User Name]

The one caveat to the Cook not being able to pitch in the AL East argument, is that he had spent his whole career successfully pitching in the launching pad that is Coors Field.

 

Otherwise, i agree with MVP that Padilla has the best arm and stuff of the bunch. He was hitting high-90's in Winter Leagues and kept his lunacy to a minimum. Maybe he can do the same in Boston.

[SoxSport]

I think Bard and Aceves will have first crack at the starting rotation. The other guys are there for insurance--in case Bard doesn't hack it or is needed in the bullpen. There is always an outside chance somebody will surprise, but you can't count on that.

 

The other factor is the Ortiz arb case. If Papi wins, you wonder if they'll cut him and save the $16.5M.

It's unlikely, but an option. That would free them to trade for a salary dump pitcher, or even sign Oswalt if he's available. They can cut Papi before the start of the season in spring training. The arb contract is not guaranteed until close to the start of the season.

[User Name]

Absolutely incorrect. After a player has been offered arbitration, his contract is guaranteed pending the actual value of the contract. The only way you can cut a player is by proving to MLB that he is unable to perform as a baseball player. Good luck with that one.

[RedSoxFan84]

I am another poster here who doesn't know a huge amount about the guys that we have signed as well, so it's hard for me to make any informed comments or opinions on them. I was hoping for a bigger-name signing or trade, someone along the lines of Oswalt, Jackson, Garza, Floyd, etc. However, I do feel that we have some nice young talent in the system in guys like Pimentel, Britton, Doubront, Barnes and Ranaudo though. However, the key word there is "young". We already have a young guy making the transition to major-league starter in Bard, and I think that banking on one or more of those young kids to make a breakthrough in 2012 is as risky as banking on one of the veterans we signed having a career year. However, at least with those young guys we have some talent that we can hopefully bring in over the next few years.

[User Name]

Felix Doubront -- 24 -- BOS Minors

Minimal major league experience.

Career AAA-- 3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

AA -- 3.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP 7.9 K/9

 

Honestly, I think they screwed up Doubront by converting him to a reliever. He's been as healthy as Eric Bedard ever since. I'd love to see him show up to spring training healthy and ready to take the #5 spot.

 

 

 

Strongly disagree. A good portion of current MLB starting pitchers have gone through the bullpen before becoming full-time SP's. David Price, Scott Baker, Johan Santana, and Clay Bucholz come to mind off the top of my head. It is done to let them acclimate to MLB caliber hitters without the strain of starting games.

 

The only one to blame for his lack of success is Doubront himself. His conditioning has been questioned several times, and until he fixes that issue, success is probably not on the horizon for him.

[FredLynn]

Strongly disagree. A good portion of current MLB starting pitchers have gone through the bullpen before becoming full-time SP's. David Price, Scott Baker, Johan Santana, and Clay Bucholz come to mind off the top of my head. It is done to let them acclimate to MLB caliber hitters without the strain of starting games.

 

The only one to blame for his lack of success is Doubront himself. His conditioning has been questioned several times, and until he fixes that issue, success is probably not on the horizon for him.

 

Its going to be hard for him to fix the major reason for his lack of success: lack of talent.

[User Name]

Its going to be hard for him to fix the major reason for his lack of success: lack of talent.

 

So your opinion (one of someone who has barely watched and evaluated Doubront, if at all) is more accurate than that of the talent evaluators who argue otherwise: That he has a great amount of talent but little discipline.

 

Noted.

[seabeachfred]

Doubrant is a lefthander with some talent but he is not someone like Matt Moore or even Ivan Nova; he is an average talent with the problem that he is a lazy doofus who is prone to let himself get out of shape and look like warmed over s***. I would like to see him and Padilla fight it out for one of the last remaining spots in the rotation and if he can redeem himself I would choose him over some of the other stiffs we signed. Padilla could be a solid possibility for us if he can stay healthy and out of jail and maybe Cook can get out of the kitchen and make a comeback, but forget Silva, Germano, Miller Haeger and Maine. They are simply cannon fodder and I just hope Pad, Cook and Doobie doobie doo are better than that.

[User Name]

Doubront is not an average talent. He is lazy, but talent evaluators like his potential as a lefty with above-average velocity and good secondary pitches.

 

And of course, talent evaluators know a lot more about talent, however subjective the term is, than us members of Talksox.

 

And it's DOUBRONT, for the love of God.

[jacksonianmarch]

User, being lazy is worst of all. Having talent and not working is bad for an athlete

[Palodios]

Strongly disagree. A good portion of current MLB starting pitchers have gone through the bullpen before becoming full-time SP's. David Price, Scott Baker, Johan Santana, and Clay Bucholz come to mind off the top of my head. It is done to let them acclimate to MLB caliber hitters without the strain of starting games.

 

The only one to blame for his lack of success is Doubront himself. His conditioning has been questioned several times, and until he fixes that issue, success is probably not on the horizon for him.

 

I have not met him, and can't make any comment on his work ethic. What I do know is that this team absolutely needed a starter last year, and the team did not allow him the opportunity while they continued to throw garbage out there, and pretend Lackey's elbow didn't need major reconstructive surgery. And yet, his name is not among most of the reports as one of the major players in the starting pitcher sweepstakes.

[User Name]

User' date=' being lazy is worst of all. Having talent and not working is bad for an athlete[/quote']

 

Absolutely agree. Great point.

 

I have not met him' date=' and can't make any comment on his work ethic. What I do know is that this team absolutely needed a starter last year, and the team did not allow him the opportunity while they continued to throw garbage out there, and pretend Lackey's elbow didn't need major reconstructive surgery. And yet, his name is not among most of the reports as one of the major players in the starting pitcher sweepstakes.[/quote']

 

You do know he was injured multiple times last year? Unless you wanted him pitching injured, of course he isn't going to be an option.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also UN, the move to the pen sounds like it may be permanent

[Muggah]

Doubrant is a lefthander with some talent but he is not someone like Matt Moore or even Ivan Nova; he is an average talent with the problem that he is a lazy doofus who is prone to let himself get out of shape and look like warmed over s***. I would like to see him and Padilla fight it out for one of the last remaining spots in the rotation and if he can redeem himself I would choose him over some of the other stiffs we signed. Padilla could be a solid possibility for us if he can stay healthy and out of jail and maybe Cook can get out of the kitchen and make a comeback' date=' but forget Silva, Germano, Miller Haeger and Maine. They are simply cannon fodder and I just hope Pad, Cook and Doobie doobie doo are better than that.[/quote']

 

That we're even having to mention these names in conversation about a Boston Red Sox starting rotation is despicable. And it officially marks the end of our run as one of MLB's 'Big Dogs.' We're now a second tier AL team, more closely aligned, in terms of talent, with the Jays, Guardians, and CHI Sox than we are the top level teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers Angels, and Rays.

[User Name]

Also UN' date=' the move to the pen sounds like it may be permanent[/quote']

 

Reports are conflicting. We won't really know until ST.

 

That we're even having to mention these names in conversation about a Boston Red Sox starting rotation is despicable. And it officially marks the end of our run as one of MLB's 'Big Dogs.' We're now a second tier AL team' date=' more closely aligned, in terms of talent, with the Jays, Guardians, and CHI Sox than we are the top level teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers Angels, and Rays.[/quote']

 

Yes, because this is a team that didn't win the World Series in 2007 with Julian "Freddy" Tavarez as its 5th starter......oh wait.....

[seabeachfred]

Doubront is not an average talent. He is lazy, but talent evaluators like his potential as a lefty with above-average velocity and good secondary pitches.

 

And of course, talent evaluators know a lot more about talent, however subjective the term is, than us members of Talksox.

 

And it's DOUBRONT, for the love of God.

 

He is an average talent, good for maybe a No. 4 or 5 role but nothing even close to being a bell cow of a pitching staff User, and as for talent evaluating or lack of it, speak for yourself. I have experience evaluating talent---for scouts themselves, years of it and I think I know talent when I see it. I'm sure some of my buddies on this board can verify it but I predicted correctly that one time top prospect Lars Anderson would be a white elephant, that Josh Reddick would be an average talent at best. I also recall that here, on Dirt Dogs and on Sawxheads, people were pleading to get a quality second baseman in the later stages of the 2006 season and in early 2007 because Dustin Pedroia just was too small and too limited in talent to make it. I also remember vividly how I was roundly panned because I insisted that Jacoby Ellsbury was twice the ballplayer Coco Crisp was and should become the centerfielder.

 

Memories may be very short now that these two have become the stars that they are but I have a very long and a very good memory about the tangles I had with people who thought the opposite a few years ago. The one player I have missed on has been Jed Lowrie but I think injuries and his being shuffled around has set him back. Look for him to be a solid player in Houston if he can stay healthy......and by solid I mean a guy who can hit around 300, hit 20-25 homers and drive in between 80-90 runs.

 

So when it comes to talent evaluation speak for yourself. There are some of us here who can judge talent a little better than you can if you feel yourself inadequate in that regard.

[Emmz]

He is an average talent, good for maybe a No. 4 or 5 role but nothing even close to being a bell cow of a pitching staff User, and as for talent evaluating or lack of it, speak for yourself. I have experience evaluating talent---for scouts themselves, years of it and I think I know talent when I see it. I'm sure some of my buddies on this board can verify it but I predicted correctly that one time top prospect Lars Anderson would be a white elephant, that Josh Reddick would be an average talent at best. I also recall that here, on Dirt Dogs and on Sawxheads, people were pleading to get a quality second baseman in the later stages of the 2006 season and in early 2007 because Dustin Pedroia just was too small and too limited in talent to make it. I also remember vividly how I was roundly panned because I insisted that Jacoby Ellsbury was twice the ballplayer Coco Crisp was and should become the centerfielder.

 

Memories may be very short now that these two have become the stars that they are but I have a very long and a very good memory about the tangles I had with people who thought the opposite a few years ago. The one player I have missed on has been Jed Lowrie but I think injuries and his being shuffled around has set him back. Look for him to be a solid player in Houston if he can stay healthy......and by solid I mean a guy who can hit around 300, hit 20-25 homers and drive in between 80-90 runs.

 

So when it comes to talent evaluation speak for yourself. There are some of us here who can judge talent a little better than you can if you feel yourself inadequate in that regard.

 

You wouldn't be the first or last person on the internet to proclaim he was someone who held an inside knowledge, one way or another. On here, it's pretty much a "cool story bro, send it to reader's digest" situation.

[FredLynn]

So your opinion (one of someone who has barely watched and evaluated Doubront, if at all) is more accurate than that of the talent evaluators who argue otherwise: That he has a great amount of talent but little discipline.

 

Noted.

 

I judge talent by the bottom line: getting results. Think Miller has talent? Think again. Both Miller and Doubrant have some skills, but little talent. Here, for example, is one common definition of talent:

 

a capacity for achievement or success; ability: young men of talent.

 

Show me the success Miller or Doubrant has achieved in MLB and I will concede the point to you.

Until then, you are wrong. Again.

[Palodios]

You do know he was injured multiple times last year? Unless you wanted him pitching injured' date=' of course he isn't going to be an option.[/quote']

 

When starters get hurt, they should still be starters when they heal. If Doubront had taken four starts in AAA before pitching his final game in the final week of the season, this team would have made the playoffs. Having him as a mediocre starter is significantly more valuable to this team as a mediocre reliever.