Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[a700hitter]

One week from now I think it will still be quite clear that Papelbon's money WAS better spent on Ortiz.

But lackey's money would still have been better spent on Papelbon.

 

Plus, Ortiz got only a fraction of Papelbon's money

[2004 ALCS]

But lackey's money would still have been better spent on Papelbon.

 

Plus, Ortiz got only a fraction of Papelbon's money

 

Matt Clement's money would have been better spent on Papelbon too. Who cares?

 

The fact that Ortiz got paid less for more value doesn't help your case.

[a700hitter]

[*]After signing elswhere, it is divulged that the Red Sox never met with or offered Oswalt a contract.

^A bold prediction confirmed to be half correct. They met with him but never offered a contract:

 

Contrary to popular belief, Roy Oswalt’s decision last winter not to sign with the Red Sox had little to do with wanting to pitch closer to his home in Mississippi.

 

According to Oswalt, the Red Sox never made an offer.

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/

[jung]

Oswalt...Mr Back already acting up..Oswalt....Good thing they never made him an offer.

[Palodios]

^A bold prediction confirmed to be half correct. They met with him but never offered a contract:

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/

 

I don't understand why this is worth bragging about. The Red Sox made the right call-- Oswalt has pitched only a few games and has completely sucked:lol:

[SoxSport]

They didn't want to spend a dime in the off-season. Everything they did was with that goal. Trades and all. They thought they were saving by moving Bard to starter, but they were too smart for their own good. It blew up in their faces. The logical move was to replace Pap with him.

 

The Dodgers just bought Hanley for a prospect or 2. The new owners have to build up their payroll.

The Sox missed an opportunity to unload Crawford they may never get again.

 

Bold is not the word you want to use characterizing Cherington and the front office. Henry, neither, in my view.

[a700hitter]

I don't understand why this is worth bragging about. The Red Sox made the right call-- Oswalt has pitched only a few games and has completely sucked:lol:

Can you find any place in my post where I referenced his performance good or bad? No, I did not. I was merely holding myself accountable for my predictrions. On this one. We now know the answer. How are you doing with you predictions? That is what this thread is for. Our team sucks. I am in a foul mood over it. I don't need your nitpickky gotcha ********.

 

My big bold prediction that I and a few others had beat the drum on was that this team did not have enough pitching. We were more right than we could have imagined. If I was going to brag about something, I'd be beating everyone over the head with that one. Be thankful that I have been exercising restraint.

[jung]

I wonder if the amount of money Miami has to spend on what they have coming back from the Dodgers for a prospect and Euvaldi fo Hanram is a tip off to what might have screwed a Boston deal.

 

Clearly, if the Sox were going to send Crawford to Miami, the Marlins were likely going to want Boston to pay some part of Crawford's ridiculous contract. Maybe once the Marlins scouted Crawford, the money they were demanding from Boston just got to be more than Boston could handle or at least would handle.

 

So at least based on what the Marliins actually did with LA, I am inclined to think that the expectation would have been for Boston to pay for Hanram and pay for a big chunk of Crawford. The money maybe just got to be more than the Sox wanted to deal with. Carl is way overpaid under the best of circumstances and these are not the best of circumstances.

[Laser Show]

I wonder if the amount of money Miami has to spend on what they have coming back from the Dodgers for a prospect and Euvaldi fo Hanram is a tip off to what might have screwed a Boston deal.

 

Clearly, if the Sox were going to send Crawford to Miami, the Marlins were likely going to want Boston to pay some part of Crawford's ridiculous contract. Maybe once the Marlins scouted Crawford, the money they were demanding from Boston just got to be more than Boston could handle or at least would handle.

 

So at least based on what the Marliins actually did with LA, I am inclined to think that the expectation would have been for Boston to pay for Hanram and pay for a big chunk of Crawford. The money maybe just got to be more than the Sox wanted to deal with. Carl is way overpaid under the best of circumstances and these are not the best of circumstances.

 

Crawford didn't even have to be included. We could've had Hanley for a prospect, and it didn't even have to be a good one. It seems like a lot of people here are looking at one trade at a time, instead of multiple at once. Crawford could've been moved at a later date.

[SemperFi Sox]

We probably could have had him for Ranaudo

[User Name]

I don't understand what is it exactly that people want. If they need to "sell" as many here have stated, why would you trade prospects for Hanley's inflated contract? It makes no sense.

[jung]

Yea I don't understand that one either UN. The original idea behind Crawford for Hanram was not really a "we want Hanram" deal so much as it was a you get our problem child and we get yours possibly as pieces in a multiplayer deal.

 

I don't see how or why the Sox would have just committed to another big chunk of money for Hanram without also letting go of some of the money the Sox are already committed to pay.

 

The Sox real problem is pitching and while Crawford for Hanram makes some sense especially if it is a piece of a larger deal, just bringing in more offense in the form of Hanram when you really need to spend money on pitching would be criminal at this point.

[a700hitter]

It was fun re-reading this thread. Wow, people thought Fred was too negative and he was predicting a 2nd place finish. One poster would have been a perfect 0- fer 15 if the Sox hadn't finished 5th in runs scored.

 

BTW: Those of you who didn't make predictions are gutless cowards.

[Bellhorn04]

BTW: Those of you who didn't make predictions are gutless cowards.

 

I've never seen the point of making predictions on sports. I freely admit that I have little idea what's going to happen. Betting on sports is different. It's even dumber than making predictions, but at least it has a point.

[a700hitter]

I've never seen the point of making predictions on sports. I freely admit that I have little idea what's going to happen. Betting on sports is different. It's even dumber than making predictions, but at least it has a point.

It is just for the fun of it. Looking back, the thread makes me laugh. Aren't you a fun guy Bell? I expect predictions from you this year. Don't be a stick in the mud or worse a coward.

[seabeachfred]

It is never fun being negative. It is just a way to vent your spleen when angered and frustrated and our team did a good job of making us feel that way this season. I can only speak for myself but for the life of me I never believed we could have turned out this badly-----69-93?????? We're going to have a big job ahead of us digging our way out of this pile of garbage. I still wonder if Cherington is the man to make this happen. I don't think much of the guy as I said earlier this summer before I took my hiatus.

[Bellhorn04]

It is just for the fun of it. Looking back, the thread makes me laugh. Aren't you a fun guy Bell? I expect predictions from you this year. Don't be a stick in the mud or worse a coward.

 

OK I'll make predictions...I don't want to be a stick in the mud.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is a good thread. Well done, RSFFL. Nice title, makes it easier to make bold predictions. Here are mine.

 

1. Crawford hits over .300 with 14 HR, missing the majority of April. He hits 2nd the entire season, finds his comfort zone, swipes 40 bags, and scores 95 runs.

 

Hahaha. Terrible.

 

2. Ellsbury hits 26 HR, steals 42 bags, and OPS's over .920.

 

Injury. But he was awful when healthy, so again, Terrible.

 

3. Pedroia hits 25 HR and has a higher OPS than Cano.

 

Somehow Pedey forgot how to take a walk. Bad prediction.

 

4. Iglesias is the opening day SS. Sox hide his bat in the lineup. He puts up a line of .218/.276/.330, but plays gold glove caliber defense, and gets the SP out of multiple jams in big situations.

 

Awful.

 

5. Youkilis is the #6 hitter, hits .275 and only hits 18 HR. He plays 125 games, but most of his missed games come early in the season. Aviles plays 3rd base while he's injured. Middlebrooks takes a big step in AAA, and the Red Sox do not exercise Youk's option for 2013.

 

Not horrible (played 122 games, hit 19 HR). I'll peg this one as close enough.

 

6. Gonzo gets his power back after his shoulder and neck heal. He hits 38 HR, and has a line of .313/.402/.568.

 

Laughable. He didn't even get close.

 

7. Salty has another season like last season. He strikes out around 28% of the time, but has good pop. hitting 15 HR and hitting .240. Shoppach takes almost all starts against LHP, and hits .248/.315/.515 with 14 HR.

 

K'd 31% of the time, so I was close on that. Hit way more HR than I thought, though.

 

8. Cody Ross has a very solid year, and is the starting RF all season. He hits .260/.325/.490 and has 19 HR.

 

This was probably my best prediction. .267/.326/.481, 22 HR.

 

9. Ortiz has a season consistent with his 3 year average. He hits .270/.370/.510 with 28 HR and 95 RBI.

 

He was a major force this year. Outproduced the slash line, injuries kept him from the run production.

 

10. Bard becomes a very good SP in the first half, winning 10 games and throwing to a 2.80 ERA. He starts to tail off in the 2nd half, and ends up with 15 wins and a 3.40 ERA. DiceK takes some spot starts from him during August and September to save some bullets for the PS.

 

Oye. :thumbdown

 

11. Lester wins the Cy Young and throws to a 3.12 ERA, winning 20 games.

 

Oye :thumbdown

 

12. Beckett regresses and pitches to a 3.70 ERA, winning 13 games.

 

He regressed alright.

 

13. Buchholz throws over 200 IP, and takes over the #2 spot from Beckett. He has a 3.28 ERA, 17 wins.

 

This is depressing.

 

14. Padilla and Aaron Cook split the #5, throwing a combined 220 IP to a 4.64 ERA. They combine for 11 wins.

 

 

15. Bailey is better than Papelbon was in 2011.

 

 

16. Melancon gets hit hard early but settles in, and ends up with a 3.6 ERA.

 

Did I say 3.60? I meant 6.20.

 

17. Aceves becomes the set up guy in the bullpen, and continues to dominate. He and Bailey have sub-3.00 ERA's, but the remaining portion of the bullpen blow 13 games this year. The bullpen ends up with a 19-17 record and a 3.82 ERA.

 

Bullpen ended up with a 3.88 ERA, and went 21-21. So not overly far off.

 

18. The Red Sox rotation ends up posting a 3.92 ERA

 

Worst. Prediction. Ever.

 

19. The Red Sox end the season going 95-67. The edge out the AL East by 1 game.

 

Almost had this exactly backwards.

 

20. Jackso reads this post and calls me a homer because there are too many pro-Red Sox predictions.

 

Nailed it.

[a700hitter]

OK I'll make predictions...I don't want to be a stick in the mud.

[a700hitter]

Hahaha. Terrible.

 

 

 

Injury. But he was awful when healthy, so again, Terrible.

 

 

 

Somehow Pedey forgot how to take a walk. Bad prediction.

 

 

 

Awful.

 

 

 

Not horrible (played 122 games, hit 19 HR). I'll peg this one as close enough.

 

 

 

Laughable. He didn't even get close.

 

 

 

K'd 31% of the time, so I was close on that. Hit way more HR than I thought, though.

 

 

 

This was probably my best prediction. .267/.326/.481, 22 HR.

 

 

 

He was a major force this year. Outproduced the slash line, injuries kept him from the run production.

 

 

 

Oye. :thumbdown

 

 

 

Oye :thumbdown

 

 

 

He regressed alright.

 

 

 

This is depressing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did I say 3.60? I meant 6.20.

 

 

 

Bullpen ended up with a 3.88 ERA, and went 21-21. So not overly far off.

 

 

 

Worst. Prediction. Ever.

 

 

 

Almost had this exactly backwards.

 

 

 

Nailed it.

Reality sucks. I don't think I did any better. Had AGon penciled in for 35 HRs/

[Palodios]

1)Jon Lester finishes in top 5 of the Cy Young race-winning more votes than CC Sabathia and Verlander.

 

Fail.

 

2) Dustin Pedroia's power dips, but his OBP rises to .410.

 

Fail. This one was overly optimistic in the first place.

 

 

3) Aviles, Punto and Iglesias all have mediocre seasons at SS, and everyone who didn't like Scutaro complains about the trade to move him.

 

Spot on

 

4) Ryan Sweeney and Cody Ross both have career years in the OF.

Ross and Sweeney both performed very well, I'm going to count this one.

 

5) Crawford doesn't return to the lineup until May.

 

July. Wow Crawford is a sack of crap.

 

6) Ortiz has a great April offensively, but falls apart in the summer.

Technically correct:lol:

 

7) Lavarnway wins Red Sox rookie of the year with 15 HR in 60 games.

 

Umm, I had meant Middlebrooks, not Lavarnway

 

8) Adrian Gonzalez leads the league in RBIs... and double plays.

Not true. Both his RBIS and GDPs went down by about 20.

 

9) Saltalamacchia is DFAed.... and no team claims him.

 

I can dream, can't I?

 

10) When Palodios goes to a Red Sox game in April, he throws a brick through the window of the Popeye's Chicken on Brookline Ave.

 

 

They never caught the person who did that, so let's pretend I didn't get this one correct.

 

With the Astros, Jed Lowrie will win NL MVP...of my heart.

 

Absolutely.

[wyo-sox]

Hahaha. Terrible.

 

 

 

Injury. But he was awful when healthy, so again, Terrible.

 

 

 

Somehow Pedey forgot how to take a walk. Bad prediction.

 

 

 

Awful.

 

 

 

Not horrible (played 122 games, hit 19 HR). I'll peg this one as close enough.

 

 

 

Laughable. He didn't even get close.

 

 

 

K'd 31% of the time, so I was close on that. Hit way more HR than I thought, though.

 

 

 

This was probably my best prediction. .267/.326/.481, 22 HR.

 

 

 

He was a major force this year. Outproduced the slash line, injuries kept him from the run production.

 

 

 

Oye. :thumbdown

 

 

 

Oye :thumbdown

 

 

 

He regressed alright.

 

 

 

This is depressing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did I say 3.60? I meant 6.20.

 

 

 

Bullpen ended up with a 3.88 ERA, and went 21-21. So not overly far off.

 

 

 

Worst. Prediction. Ever.

 

 

 

Almost had this exactly backwards.

 

 

 

Nailed it.

 

 

I laughed so hard reading this. I remember how high my hopes were early on in the season. It is simply laughable how bad every aspect of this team was. I think my hopes were pretty in line with your predictions.

[a700hitter]

Ross and Sweeney both performed very well, I'm going to count this one.

You are going to call a season in which Sweeney hit 0 HRs a career year. You maybe fudging on this one.

[jung]

Really funny post SFF. What are ya' gonna' do. Even the biggest pessimists we had can't claim to have been as far down on the lose-o-graph as they needed to be to have pegged this sack of ugly right.

[Palodios]

You are going to call a season in which Sweeney hit 0 HRs a career year. You maybe fudging on this one.

 

Still counting this one:lol:

[mvp 78]

The most negative former poster thought the Sox would win 83-85 games. We were all so very, very wrong.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Oh man, this is going to be a blast

 

 

 

1) Red Sox will end up in top 5 in offense.

 

They ended up being 8th in the league, not too bad.

 

2) Pedroia hits 20 or more HRs

 

He hit 15, 5 short.

 

3) Crawford and Ellsbury crack 35+ SB

 

Crawturd(credit goes to Station13) 5 and Ellsbury 14, FAIL.

 

4) Ellsbury has another 30/30 season

 

4/14 Literally lol

 

5) A-God hits 30 or more HRs

 

Hit 18, so much for the power coming back

 

6) Red Sox make the wildcard with about 95-100 wins.

 

I'm almost embarassed I made this prediction, fail of the year.

 

7) Red Sox score 830+ runs on the season.

 

734 runs scored, thought a repeat of 2011 would come, sike.

 

8) Carl Crawford has a comeback season and the haters will say nothing until 2013

 

I'm making a fool out of myself

 

9) Salty improves on offense and dramatically on defense

 

Refer to my last comment

 

10) Youk improves in nearly every offensive category

 

Only in HRs, my lord what a bad one

 

11) Bailey gets more saves than Papelbon You heard it here first.

 

I'm going to get tested tomorrow and make sure my brain is ok.

 

12) Bailey has less than a 3.0 ERA

 

He doubled this, go back to the A's

 

13) Sweeney, Punto, Jackson all have bad seasons. Talksox calls for their heads before June.

 

S/O to Aaron Cook for giving Sweeney boxing gloves, if Sweeney breaks his hand after going 0-4, I can't imagine what he would have done after seeing the teams record at the end of the season.

 

Punto - No one cared for him

 

Jackson - lol irrelevant

 

I'd say I'm good on this one.

 

14) Red Sox pitching ends up in top 10

 

27th, major fail

 

15) Red Sox lead the division in the month of April.

 

They didn't lead in April or any month, fail.

 

 

1 for 15, get on my level. :harhar:

[SCM33]

Its the quiet before the storm. Like I said, as constructed....this team is worse than they were a year ago by 3 arms and a SS......they lost their closer, setup man and best reliever in Papelbon, Bard and Aceves. They replaced them with Bailey and Melancon...and still have not replaced Aceves innings from a year ago.

 

Bard and Aceves have now become question marks in the rotation and we still dont have a real SS.

 

Fearless prediction? Nope....they are a third place team. Evidence? They finished in third place the last two years with better teams than this one right now.

 

Could it change? Yeah, but they need to do something about it.....and the offseason clock is ticking......

Nailed it. Finished worse than 3rd, but not by much.

 

This team is not 1 starting pitcher away.....they are a SP (if 1 of Bard/Aceves is in the rotation), 2/3 BP arms (if Bard and Aceves are both in the rotation) and SS away right now.

 

They need to fill out the rotation, if they got Oswalt, thats a HUGE difference. If they add someone like Jackson....then they have to replace the production of Aceves AND Bard in the BP because 1 of them will be in the rotation. What I mean by that.....is that by subtracting 1 of them, you will have to add at least 2 arms in the BP because the combo of Bard or Aceves + a FA BP arm will not equal what Bard and Aceves gave us last year in the pen. Aceves was really great, and saved us a ton last year. Who fills that role if he is in the rotation?

 

Also, you have to factor in that we will not be getting the same production out of SS that Scutaro/Lowrie gave us with Aviles/Punto.

 

Our offense was fine last year, it was fine 2 years ago, it will be fine this year.....but their pitching will be the Achilles heal.

 

Nailed it.

[jacksonianmarch]

9-28 since the trade. That is the team returning plus Lackey and Middlebrooks. A team that couldnt win 25% of their games. My fearless prediction for 2013 is that the sox finish with more than 60 wins.

[Behindenemylines]

With some key moves, some health, and players playing to their potential the Sox should be in the 82 to 85 win range. 60 Give me a break. The 2013 version will win way more then 60. Might not make the playoffs, but will win more then they lose.