Phillies sign Papelbon

[Palodios]

I meant since the language barrier, not the context of the issue.

 

I perfectly know who is Lackey and who is Papelbon and their levels in their positions in order to know that one was overpaid and the other was not. Seems like you are who don't get it, at least in this situation.

 

Papelbon got the largest contract for a closer ever. Lackey got contract valued around what #2 pitchers generally get. Papelbon is not the best ever... and probably won't even crack the top ten in his career. Lackey atleast looked like he was a #2 at the time.

[jacksonianmarch]

Okay' date=' someone here convince me. What exactly is so great about Papelbon? Throw out some stats, something, that says he's anywhere remotely as good as he was in 2008. Its one thing if he still performed to that level... but I just don't see him deserving the largest closer contract contract ever.[/quote']

 

Of pitchers who threw over 60IP out of the pen last yr....

 

Pap's WHIP was 6th

Pap was 8th in K's

Pap's K/9 was second

Pap's K/BB was third

 

He did have a hell of a year. Add in that he's 30. he's been doing this for awhile and is leaving probably the toughest place to play and that is why he's so good

[User Name]

I meant since the language barrier, not the context of the issue.

 

I perfectly know who is Lackey and who is Papelbon and their levels in their positions in order to know that one was overpaid and the other was not. Seems like you are who don't get it, at least in this situation.

 

Let me put in simpler terms, since you don't seem to understand what i'm getting at.

 

1) Overpaying is overpaying, regardless of position, and regardless of the quality of the player. I'm not comparing Lackey to Papelbon. I'm comparing their "overpaid" standing.

 

2) If you compare Papelbon to other long-term deal for relievers not named Rivera, you will notice they have all failed with the exception of Rivera himself. Including guys with similar track records who signed at similar ages. What's so different about Papelbon? That he's an "ace".

[Palodios]

Of pitchers who threw over 60IP out of the pen last yr....

 

Pap's WHIP was 6th

Pap was 8th in K's

Pap's K/9 was second

Pap's K/BB was third

 

He did have a hell of a year. Add in that he's 30. he's been doing this for awhile and is leaving probably the toughest place to play and that is why he's so good

 

You may have left out the fact that he came in 38th in ERA. Seriously, there are thirty seven relievers in baseball who allowed fewer runs come across the plate. If that doesn't convince the realists, I don't know what will.

[Elktonnick]

I think they need to sign a closer type regardless. If they just fill in for the middle of the pen and then Bard flops' date=' then the season is over out the gate. If they bring in a guy like Nathan on a value recoup deal then they can have Nathan handle half and Bard handle the other half of the save situations. That gets Bard eased in and in 2013, possibly has him close full time. If Bard mucks up in his opportunities then they can just move Nathan into the closers role and Bard back to setup role.[/quote']

 

Oh I agree! That actually was my point. I think they would love Nathan. But even if Bard bombs out of the gate totally, the season isn't over. Look at the Yankess pen last year. That why releivers are a crap shoot. It cuts both ways if you can find pearl who can fill in. The key though is the starters. We must have the rotation squared away.

[Palodios]

You may have left out the fact that he came in 38th in ERA. Seriously' date=' there are thirty seven relievers in baseball who allowed fewer runs come across the plate. If that doesn't convince the realists, I don't know what will.[/quote']

 

38th in 2011, and 60th in 2010. Tell me he's worth the largest contract in baseball history for a reliever, go ahead.

[iortiz]

Papelbon got the largest contract for a closer ever. Lackey got contract valued around what #2 pitchers generally get. Papelbon is not the best ever... and probably won't even crack the top ten in his career. Lackey atleast looked like he was a #2 at the time.

 

Nahhh...

 

1.- He is making -17% than the best by year.

 

2.- If you think that we paid what Lackey deserved, is up to you, I am not in that wagon. You gave Lackey, Becket's contract. It is not smart. As I said, you pay long term contracts to aces. He was paid like one, and he wasn't.

[Palodios]

Nahhh...

 

1.- He is making -17% than the best by year.

 

2.- If you think that we paid what Lackey deserved, is up to you, I am not in that wagon. You gave Lackey, Becket's contract. It is not smart. As I said, you pay long term contracts to aces. He was paid like one, and he wasn't.

 

Both players are overpaid. And I'm not talking "per year", I'm talking overall. Papelbon's overall is going to be the largest.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Regardless of the solution, replacing Papelbon will be missed. Since Paps became Boston’s closer in 2006, he has been the most valuable reliever in baseball (fWAR 14.7), edging out the legendary Mariano Rivera (fWAR 13.9) and leaving everyone else in the dust. He has the best FIP of any reliever in that time as well and his 395 innings ranks 11th among all relievers, 4th among those who would still be considered closers. In 2011, Paps had what be finest season ever. His 1.53 FIP was a career best, barely trailing Craig Kimbrel’s 1.52 mark. What will it take to replace this elite level of production?

 

 

 

The replacement level for any bullpen pitcher is a more complicated issue than for position players or starters. The recognized bullpen roles of closer, setup man, LOOGY, ROOGY, and long reliever or swing man are not positions in and of themselves. Lose a closer to injury mid-season and typically they are replaced by the setup man, while the next best arm in the pen takes on the eight inning duties and so on, down the line. To further complicate things, top pitching prospects often see time in the major league bullpen to gain valuable experience and limit their innings at a young age.

 

If that isn’t enough, there is the wild volatility that comes with relievers. Papelbon himself has had some wild fluctuations of late, with his FIP reaching an all-time high of 3.51 just last year and then dropping just as dramatically. A relief pitcher’s season typically consists of just one third the innings of a starter and they pitch in a wildly irregular pattern. All of this means that predicting future performance and narrowing down what it will take to replace any reliever is perilous.

 

Nonetheless, with Papelbon out of the picture, Boston will need some pitching help next year. They will, at very least, need to find an extra 65-70 innings, Papelbon’s typical workload. Were Bard to move to the closer role, then that total would go up as, Bard has pitched more innings in his current role than he would closing assuming the role remains the same with the new manager. Promoting Bard would mean an additional ten relief innings.

 

The 2011 Red Sox featured very good bullpen. The pen held a 3.67 ERA overall, fourth best in the AL. Thanks to a starting staff that struggled to fill innings, they also pitched the second highest innings total in the league, 517.1 innings. The average AL bullpen only pitched 466 innings and the two top rotations, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles, needed only 391 and 422 innings from their pens, respectively. Boston was forced to give an extra 50-100 innings to their bullpen as a result of the starting rotation’s shortcomings.

 

Those one extra innings took their toll. As good as Boston’s bullpen was, it still gave 60 innings to players at or below replacement level and 40 more innings to player who contributed just .1 fWAR. Had the rotation managed to pull its wait, the bullpen would have had far less need for its least effective pitchers. Papelbon’s role would not be effected much, however. This improvement would have been from the bottom up.

 

Signing a single player to replace Papelbon presents a problem. Paps has a better track record than any other available closer. However, Boston has ample opportunity to replace Papelbon’s production in the aggregate. The Sox returns their second and third best relievers, Bard and versatile long man Alfredo Aceves. Ex-closer Bobby Jenks struggled with injuries last season, but had been worth 1.5 fWAR in 2010. Jenks is the perfect example of the volatile nature of relievers having produced over 1.5 fWAR three times in the past six years and less than .5 fWAR twice. Should Jenks be able to return to even just the 1 win level, Boston be nearly half way to filling the void.

 

The remaining 1-1.5 wins Boston would likely get from Paps could easily be made up in those one hundred innings starters failed to cover in 2011. Relief pitchers are rarely able to top 1.5 wins in such a limited role. In 2011 only 17 relievers managed the feet. Starters, however, produced 85 pitchers over 1.5 wins. Boston had three starters above that mark despite a below average rotation. Replacing Tim Wakefield’s .8 fWAR from 2011 with a full season of Erik Bedard, who produced 2.4 fWAR would cover the remaining gap. Simply returning the starting rotation to an above average level would cover Papelbon’s production.

 

The Red Sox will be looking to acquire at least two starters this off-season and this is there best chance to replace Papelbon’s production. The 2011 bullpen produced 7.7 fWAR, the best in baseball. The starting pitching was less impressive with just 12.6 fWAR. In total the staff managed 20.3, Papelbon contributing 3 wins on his own. Of the six teams that topped Boston’s 20.3 wins from pitching, everyone received more production from the starters. Three of those teams featured below average bullpens. In fact Papelbon’s new home, Philadelphia can count on an improved bullpen with the additional of Papelbon alone, as he easily projects to surpass their 1.7 fWAR 2011 bullpen total.

 

Jonathan Papelbon is an excellent pitcher and he will not be easy to replace. However, he is still a relief pitcher and as such, his value is unlikely to ever exceed its 2011 level. Boston will miss his intense gaze, his blazing fastball and his river dancing. If Cherington and company can address their biggest weakness, the starting pitching, they may not miss his production at all.

[iortiz]

Let me put in simpler terms, since you don't seem to understand what i'm getting at.

 

1) Overpaying is overpaying, regardless of position, and regardless of the quality of the player. I'm not comparing Lackey to Papelbon. I'm comparing their "overpaid" standing.

 

2) If you compare Papelbon to other long-term deal for relievers not named Rivera, you will notice they have all failed with the exception of Rivera himself. Including guys with similar track records who signed at similar ages. What's so different about Papelbon? That he's an "ace".

 

I don't want to disrespect you but I already showed you what I meant. I'm not sure if I can put my argument clearer.

[jung]

If they sign Madson for what the Phillies were going to sign him then I'll be disappointed.

 

Elk as most of Jacksonia's arguments are arguments of convenience, he has conveniently forgotten that the Phils already offered Madson 4/50 with the vesting package. The Phils offered Madson the same deal Paps eventually got but Madson's agent Boras screwed the deal. So while I am not saying they should do it, if the Sox were to offer Madson 3/anything it would be less than Philly had already put on the table in front of Madson.

[iortiz]

Both players are overpaid. And I'm not talking "per year"' date=' I'm talking overall. Papelbon's overall is going to be the largest.[/quote']

 

IMO Pap was not overpaid, but we can agree to disagree. I already rest my case Pal.

[Palodios]

Papelbon's numbers are heavily skewed by his earlier years. Some stats to consider

 

2006-2008 ERA 1.70, WHIP .837 BB/9 1.7 3 All-star appearances

 

2009-2011 ERA 2.89, WHIP 1.10 BB/9 2.8 1 All-star appearances

 

He was a significantly better pitcher in his first three years. He's being paid off those numbers rather than the last three years.

[Elktonnick]

Elk as most of Jacksonia's arguments are arguments of convenience' date=' he has conveniently forgotten that the Phils already offered Madson 4/50 with the vesting package. The Phils offered Madson the same deal Paps eventually got but Madson's agent Boras screwed the deal. So while I am not saying they should do it, if the Sox were to offer Madson 3/anything it would be less than Philly had already put on the table in front of Madson.[/quote']

 

Interresting. What I picked up was on the MLB network and from the Philadelphia paper which said the Madson deal had not been finalized because the Phillies owner had not okayed the deal. No doubt Boras screwed up. I think it was Tom Veriducci who also implied that the Boras wanted 5 years but that was too much. Although there is a plurality of Phillies fans who think Paps is a better get than Madson there is a significant number who think he isn't. Interestingly one of the objections voiced down here is his personality and character may not fit in their clubhouse. (Don't shoot the messenger, I am just reporting what they are saying.)

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

IMO Pap was not overpaid' date=' but we can agree to disagree. I already rest my case Pal.[/quote']

 

[jung]

I could see where the legendary Pap stare could be kinda' off putting until you get used to it. If he performs well for them, I am not sure his intensity which some might think suggests he is just over-amped would be much of a problem.

 

I think the Philly fans are going to be pretty amped up about their team and well they should be if they play like they should. They are trying to get the most they can out of having worked to build this team to its current state and they really should have a good chance to win it at least once in the next couple of years as long as they don't get bit by the injury bug.

[iortiz]

I strongly believe that his numbers will be significantly better in the NL East.

[phuckingphilliesfan]

:harhar: ha ha ha

[phuckingphilliesfan]

...sorry guys-had to do it. Did love when you beat the yankees in04 -will watch sox when Phillies aren't on -and I would love to swap eagles for Pats any day

[iortiz]

What is the media saying in Philli about Pap?

[a700hitter]

And you haven't read/understood my point. You are comparing apples with oranges. Numbers, eviorement, division, abilities, market, times, etc.

 

He.is.the.best.closer.we.ever.had......proved and arguably the best projected in the position for the next 4 years in the game. That is called value. I guess this is what Philadelphia saw in him and you certainly did not.

 

Comprende?

My advice is to not bother engaging him. I'll send you a pm with more info.

[iortiz]

My advice is to not bother engaging him. I'll send you a pm with more info.

 

Got u.

[User Name]

My advice is to not bother engaging him. I'll send you a pm with more info.

 

Got u.

 

http://i6.glitter-graphics.org/pub/187/187296rzbdvgxafc.jpg

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

 

Don't worry about it. The new posters don't get much love around here anymore.

[Kimmi]

Carl Crawford was an "ace", a "star", an "elite player". How's that working out for the Red Sox? No matter what, he's not going to be worth his contract anymore because 2011 was a lost year and the tail end of his contract is going to be smack-dab in the middle of his decline phase.

 

Point is, overpaying for players is never a good idea. And don't tell me the Phillies paid market value for Papelbon, because they didn't, and had they upped that offer, the Sox wouldn't have paid market value either.

 

Those instances of overpaying are the ones that create s*** situations like the one the Sox are facing right now.

 

Bravo.

[Kimmi]

The thing about Papelbon' date=' though, is that in his 6 yrs with the sox, he was both durable and dominant. He's 30, so he isnt over the hill yet and he did it in your environment. I think it all depends on what the sox end up getting. If they sign Madson to a 3 yr contract at big money then they are just idiots. If they stay true to the "crap shoot" idea, then they stuck to their guns. But if they get a guy who is inferior on a big money contract that is slightly cheaper and shorter than Paps deal, then they are idiots[/quote']

 

Agree with that. The Sox better not turn around and sign any reliever to a 3 year deal. That would be idiotic. I also agree with you that Nathan on a one year deal seems like a good move.

[VA Sox Fan]

http://i6.glitter-graphics.org/pub/187/187296rzbdvgxafc.jpg

 

[jung]

I would be surprised if the Sox gave any closer 3 years at this point. They can see where they might be pushed to 2 years but there again I think if they go 2 it will be because they were pushed there for a closer that they thing gives them value over that time.

[a700hitter]

Encourage Dutchy before his next banning.

[FredLynn]

I would be surprised if the Sox gave any closer 3 years at this point. They can see where they might be pushed to 2 years but there again I think if they go 2 it will be because they were pushed there for a closer that they thing gives them value over that time.

 

Bard is going to be the closer, at least to start the year. Why pay big bucks for someone else? Bard has earned the chance for a shot at that job. Maybe it will work out; maybe not. I would rather spend the money getting other pieces for a run in a couple of years that for a closer who is likely no better than Bard would be. They are ALL a crapshoot, Rivera being the exception.