2012 Who will be our manager?

[SoxSport]

I am not sure Madden would be right for the mix of players that the Sox have either. Frankly the Sox are in a tough spot as far as this manager gig goes and there really isn't a magic bullet.

 

Somehow the Sox have to get hold of a manager that can instill a better work ethic with this group of players while making it look like it is their idea. They need something of a hypnotist, salesman that can play enough with a computer keyboard to keep JH happy. He needs to get what he wants out of this bunch of players without being a drill sergeant. I know we think we want a drill sergeant but there is no real reason to think that will work with this bunch.

 

Of course, we could try to turn over a bunch of these players and get enough of like minded guys on the team to make the job of manager more....well....manageable but you really can't flip a team that fast without getting hurt in the process. I see some sort of caretaker coming in until the FO figures out how to extricate itself from the current financial corner they have boxed themselves into. Here again, we could as fans want JH to loosen the purse strings but that's not going to happen either.

 

The more I think about it the more Valentine might appeal to JH and LL but not because he would be holding anybody's feet to any fire. Whoever comes in next I don't see another eight year run in the works, not yet anyway. I really don't know all or even half the options out there but I guess I still would like Martinez. He's been my favorite option from the start. I think Martinez would represent an effort to truly bring in a manager that would have a shot at staying awhile.

 

I think they need a guy the players can respect. Somebody who has experience. Been there, done that. And somebody who can press the right buttons during a game. And the players usually know what the right buttons are. Tony Larussa, for example. He's respected.

 

I think the sabermetrics stuff is best left to the GM and FO--the people who pick the farm system, draft,etc.

 

I don't think the manager should be restricted as to moving baserunners by bunting or stealing, or manipulating lineups--or changing pitchers. Here you want a manager that doesn't feel constricted by sabermetrics. You want some flexibility for the situation.

 

Next year, the Red Sox will have 3 guys who can steal 40 bases and one guy who can steal 20.

That's a lot of speed in a lineup that doesn't use speed. You wonder how things got that way?

 

Beane always drafted guys who got lots of walks and had power--guys who were fat, slow and couldn't play defense. Guys other GMs passed on. He was successful--for awhile.

Things might be on another level now. Maybe speed and defense are coming back into play.

Maybe the Red Sox will surpise people this year with their style of play.

 

Cherington is a first year GM. I expect a tighter control of pursestrings by Henry and LL.

I also think the new manager will have more autonomy in running a game and the clubhouse.

That could mean a veteran that LL will have heavy input on.

[jung]

I don't think the player evaluation stuff is critical to JH and LL in the Manager role either but I do think they like to have somebody there that understands enough so that they are all on the same page. I don't think they would care that somebody knew more about Sabermetrics and Tito did...but I do think they would want somebody that understood it at about the same level that Tito did.

 

I always thought that Tito's in game moves were not his strong suit. to be honest I always thought he was not very good there. I would like to see somebody better in that regard...not sure what JH and LL think.

 

Apologize if you have a favorite that you might have posted somewhere Soxsport. Does somebody come to mind that you think would work?

[3rdManOut]

Rangers pitching coach, Mike Maddux I believe is on the "serious list" of possibilities. What do you all think of him?

[SoxSport]

I don't think the player evaluation stuff is critical to JH and LL in the Manager role either but I do think they like to have somebody there that understands enough so that they are all on the same page. I don't think they would care that somebody knew more about Sabermetrics and Tito did...but I do think they would want somebody that understood it at about the same level that Tito did.

 

I always thought that Tito's in game moves were not his strong suit. to be honest I always thought he was not very good there. I would like to see somebody better in that regard...not sure what JH and LL think.

 

Apologize if you have a favorite that you might have posted somewhere Soxsport. Does somebody come to mind that you think would work?

 

Sabermetrics isn't that important to the manager--except for stealing bases and bunting to move runners in critical situations. Players who walk a lot will walk a lot for any manager.

The other thing that's important is handling the pitching--when to take the starter out, how to use the bullpen. That wasn't a Tito strength, but what was Epstein's input on this? Beane controls that a lot during a game with the As.

 

Which type of manager they want is a tough call. Maybe it depends on who LL and Henry want. They might want a guy like Valentine--or some other name type with experience. Bowa isn't the right temperament. Most of the others are already managing.

 

If Cherington is calling the shots, it might be a younger guy--a bench coach. Like he said in his news conference. In that case, I would favor Martinez, because of the importance in turning Crawford around. Crawford's defense WAR went down last year as well compared to his previous year in TB (-.3 vs +.5). That indicates to me he had a head problem--an adjustment problem. The Sox will have to solve that. That's why I favor Martinez--without knowing much more about him, except he was the bench coach of a fundamentals-oriented team, which used speed as a weapon. The Sox will have to do that next year with Ells, CC and Kalish. They can't avoid it.

[example1]

I keep reading people talking about sabermetrics being against the stolen base. It isn't. It is against getting caught stealing. There is a percentage at which a player is theoretically hurting your team more than helping. I don't have it in front of me but I believe the magic number is about 75%. In other words, Crawford could steal 120 bases but if he were also caught 100 times it would work out to a net loss. That seems intuitive to me.

 

If a manager is particularly adept at sending runners at a higher success rate than the break-even mark then it is a weapon to be used. The threshold is, mathematically, just a but higher than many old school folks may have thought, which resembles a drastic pendulum swing away from SBs. It isn't drastic. Sabermetrics is premised around conserving the one consistently predictable resource in the game: 27 outs.

[User Name]

I keep reading people talking about sabermetrics being against the stolen base. It isn't. It is against getting caught stealing. There is a percentage at which a player is theoretically hurting your team more than helping. I don't have it in front of me but I believe the magic number is about 75%. In other words, Crawford could steal 120 bases but if he were also caught 100 times it would work out to a net loss. That seems intuitive to me.

 

If a manager is particularly adept at sending runners at a higher success rate than the break-even mark then it is a weapon to be used. The threshold is, mathematically, just a but higher than many old school folks may have thought, which resembles a drastic pendulum swing away from SBs. It isn't drastic. Sabermetrics is premised around conserving the one consistently predictable resource in the game: 27 outs.

 

It has been noted several times that several Red Sox runners have the green light most of the time (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Crawford just last year) but people keep saying the same thing over and over regardless of how many points are made to the contrary. Absolutely incredible.

[Trillz808]

It has been noted several times that several Red Sox runners have the green light most of the time (Pedroia' date=' Ellsbury, Crawford just last year)[/quote']

 

Not trying to go against you on this and I probably even believe you but where was it noted just so that i can take some of the lack of offense away from stupid decisions that i assumed tito would make...

[User Name]

I've personally mentioned it myself in earlier posts, specially the fact that Ellsbury's stolen over 40 bases several times, and Pedroia has averaged near 20 every healthy season.

 

The good runners had the green light with Francona.

[Spitball]

Sabermetrics isn't that important to the manager--except for stealing bases and bunting to move runners in critical situations. Players who walk a lot will walk a lot for any manager.

 

Good post, but I disagree with this point. I see a lot of managers out there batting fast runners with poor on base abilities at the top of their order. Corey Patterson and Willy Tavares both had a vast majority of their at bats from the number one hole despite problems finding first base. Those managers simply refuse let go of old school thought and fail to embrace the logic of modern statistical analysis.

[seabeachfred]

I'm glad to finally see a couple of my colleagues here what I have been saying for years, namely that Francona was a very poor field manager. You sometimes have to take chances like trying to steal, hit and run, squeeze when the occasion demands it. What's worse and much more debilitating is to see a rally being killed by a double play, a miserable statistic we seem always to lead the league in or a very close second. A new Red Sox manager needs to keep the opposition guessing ALL THE TIME. Put as much pressure on the pitcher and defense to be alert for just about anything. It is foolhardy to simply tell the opposition that you're going station-to-station so they can just get ready in double play position.

 

That is why the new manager must the the complete opposite of Francona in the dugout and must not have contraints put on him as Epstein continuously did with Francona. If Lucchino and Co. learned anything from this year's debacle that's one of the things that should be embedded in their brains.

[SoxSport]

Good post' date=' but I disagree with this point. I see a lot of managers out there batting fast runners with poor on base abilities at the top of their order. Corey Patterson and Willy Tavares both had a vast majority of their at bats from the number one hole despite problems finding first base. Those managers simply refuse let go of old school thought and fail to embrace the logic of modern statistical analysis.[/quote']

 

They do it maybe because they don't have any speed guys with high OBP. So they settle for

lesser guys. Most managers want speed at the top of the lineup. But Beane will tell you you're better off with a slow, high OBP guy leading off.

 

Yeah--there's a conflict between the saber nerds and the old school types. But most FOs these days practice sabermetrics, and they get the players. The managers run the games, and a lot of the differences are involved with the value of stealing and bunting--which I think are understated in sabermetrics. As LaRussa said this morning, situations warrant risking an out to move runners in close games. There is a certain tradeoff in creating runs vs making outs--at times.

 

The other thing is SB may be undervalued because there is increasing run value in stealing 3B and home plate, which isn't accounted for in the saber formula--all bases equally weighted, Runs=.3SB Though it's lessened because 3B and home are tougher to steal and done less often than stealing 2B.

[SoxSport]

Rangers pitching coach' date=' Mike Maddux I believe is on the "serious list" of possibilities. What do you all think of him?[/quote']

 

The other name that cropped up today is Mackanin, the Phillies bench coach. He supposed to be the interviewing on Monday. He's an older guy who's never managed in the big leagues.

[jung]

No question that high OBP and less speed should outweigh low OBP with speed at the top of the order. Getting a man on base creates so many more problems for the defense and the pitcher and getting a man on with no outs creates even more problems.

 

I would rather a guy with speed but poor OBP be able to leg out a hit from the bottom of the batting order if trying to value his speed somehow and using it to help determine where he should be in the lineup. There is nothing to value in an out at the top of the batting order.

[jung]

Bringing in the pitching coach from the Rangers to manage the Sox could be interesting especially for the pitchers.

 

I sorta' believe that it is easier for the Pitching Coach to have an impact on the pitching staff but I suppose Maddux could bring in a like minded Pitching Coach. Myself I would probably still favor Martinez as Manager.

 

Did somebody say that the Sox list has been cut down to 15 guys now? Wish I knew who was on the list of 15 if that is what has happened.

[Trillz808]

The other name that cropped up today is Mackanin' date=' the Phillies bench coach. He supposed to be the interviewing on Monday. He's an older guy who's never managed in the big leagues.[/quote']

 

Mackanin has been mentioned since the day tito announced he was leaving

[example1]

Mackanin certainly has a good resume

 

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/team/coach_staff_bio.jsp?c_id=phi&coachorstaffid=118093

 

Quite a career. Anyone thinking that good candidates will be scared off by the collapse will likely be shown to be wrong in the coming weeks. Impressive first known name on the interview list.

[Laser Show]

No question that high OBP and less speed should outweigh low OBP with speed at the top of the order. Getting a man on base creates so many more problems for the defense and the pitcher and getting a man on with no outs creates even more problems.

 

I would rather a guy with speed but poor OBP be able to leg out a hit from the bottom of the batting order if trying to value his speed somehow and using it to help determine where he should be in the lineup. There is nothing to value in an out at the top of the batting order.

 

So Youk leading off might be ideal for us?

[Trillz808]

So Youk leading off might be ideal for us?

 

I wouldnt want to see this thats for sure...

[Dojji]

Why not? It's not like he hasn't done it before.

[SoxSport]

I keep reading people talking about sabermetrics being against the stolen base. It isn't. It is against getting caught stealing. There is a percentage at which a player is theoretically hurting your team more than helping. I don't have it in front of me but I believe the magic number is about 75%. In other words, Crawford could steal 120 bases but if he were also caught 100 times it would work out to a net loss. That seems intuitive to me.

 

If a manager is particularly adept at sending runners at a higher success rate than the break-even mark then it is a weapon to be used. The threshold is, mathematically, just a but higher than many old school folks may have thought, which resembles a drastic pendulum swing away from SBs. It isn't drastic. Sabermetrics is premised around conserving the one consistently predictable resource in the game: 27 outs.

 

You got to be successful about 70% of the time to have a zero effect on runs. The Sox were successful 71% last year on about 100 attempts vs 76% success on about 310 attempts for their opponents. That translated into +28 runs for their opponents--about 20% of the net total run difference between the Sox and their opponents last year. That suggests the FO has to rethink their strategy on SBs. They need better defense aginst stealing, and more effective use of stealing in offense. That's a must with 3 guys in the lineup who can steal 40 bases--CC, Ells and Kalish.

 

Conserve outs, yes, but trade an out for a run? yes.

[a700hitter]

You got to be successful about 70% of the time to have a zero effect on runs. The Sox were successful 71% last year on about 100 attempts vs 76% success on about 310 attempts for their opponents. That translated into +28 runs for their opponents--about 20% of the net total run difference between the Sox and their opponents last year. That suggests the FO has to rethink their strategy on SBs. They need better defense aginst stealing, and more effective use of stealing in offense. That's a must with 3 guys in the lineup who can steal 40 bases--CC, Ells and Kalish.

 

Conserve outs, yes, but trade an out for a run? yes.

They need a catcher who can throw. Yes, our pitchers need some work regarding holding the runners, but even with good jumps fat old guys should not be able to steal against us with such regularity. It's one thing when the other teams speedsters steal against you, but when the sluggers, opposing catchers and DH's steal, it's because the catcher can't throw. Salty's arm is very erratic and inaccurate

[sleepyhollow]

I still have this fantasy that it might be Tek.

 

Say it isn't so! What did he do to help control the team in September?

Not much......

Leading by example for some players isn't enough!

[Dojji]

There's life beyond this September. He wasn't playing every day and I'm sure that didn't help Tek get listened to. He knows what it really takes to get there from here better than most of our current squad.

[albert05]

Red Sox will interview Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin and Milwaukee hitting coach Dale Sveum for the Sox' managerial opening early this week

[User Name]

Varitek should not even warrant consideration.....yet. To become an MLB manager you should be obligated to pay your dues as a coach or at the MiLB, which 'Tek hasn't done.

[3rdManOut]

The other name that cropped up today is Mackanin' date=' the Phillies bench coach. He supposed to be the interviewing on Monday. He's an older guy who's never managed in the big leagues.[/quote']

 

In the Sox's position, would they really want someone who has never been in the managers position before? How would the players react to someone who has never led a team before?

[Trillz808]

In the Sox's position' date=' would they really want someone who has never been in the managers position before? How would the players react to someone who has never led a team before?[/quote']

 

with the amount of times charlie manuel has been thrown out of the game he has done a very well job calling the rest of the game so he knows how to be a leader when needed on the spot and he does have a good enough resume to be a manager but I still wouldnt want a manager coming over from the NL from a team who has also failed for the last two years to be clutch in the time when most needed

[User Name]

with the amount of times charlie manuel has been thrown out of the game he has done a very well job calling the rest of the game so he knows how to be a leader when needed on the spot and he does have a good enough resume to be a manager but I still wouldnt want a manager coming over from the NL from a team who has also failed for the last two years to be clutch in the time when most needed

 

I don't understand this line of thought. Could you explain it to me?

[Trillz808]

Basically I think its a lot harder to manage a lineup and a team in the toughest AL division that Macknin just isnt somone i think that would be able to do that great as the sox manager, and the phillies for the last two years have had a prime team and could have won the world series but somewhere in the clubhouse they werent able to get it done, im not positive why they didnt but in my opinion if the coaches in philly cant get a team primed to win it all pumped up enough to get to the world series, how is just the bench coach suppose to come to boston and pump up the sox from the historic collapse of 11'

[User Name]

Basically I think its a lot harder to manage a lineup and a team in the toughest AL division that Macknin just isnt somone i think that would be able to do that great as the sox manager' date=' and the phillies for the last two years have had a prime team and could have won the world series but somewhere in the clubhouse they werent able to get it done, im not positive why they didnt but in my opinion if the coaches in philly cant get a team primed to win it all pumped up enough to get to the world series, how is just the bench coach suppose to come to boston and pump up the sox from the historic collapse of 11'[/quote']

 

What?

 

Just because you have a good team it doesn't guarantee success in the playoffs. The playoffs are basically a crapshoot. To me, that argument makes no sense.