2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

Possibly so. But when you look at the number of large-scale blunders that are made each year throughout baseball, it makes you wonder if the whole system isn't just built to fail.

 

2011 was a classic year for big blunders: free agent busts Crawford (hopefully that will change some), Werth, and Dunn. The Angels taking on Vernon Wells from the Jays for 4 years, 80 million and in the same deal getting rid of an inexpensive Mike Napoli.

 

2012 we have Pujols, Fielder, C J Wilson. Will they be big successes or massive blunders? Who knows? The risk and uncertainty in these moves is off the charts, but people keep making them. I don't think I'd want to be in the position of being judged on moves like that. Common sense frankly goes out the window when you make moves like that.

Simple things can be difficult to do. They aren't rocket science and they don't require a particularly high level of intelligence. The job is probably art more than science to some extent. There is luck involved. Finally, the biggest differentiator is resources. If you have the best scouts and the best coaches throughout the organization, the GM will get more reliable and better information.

[RedSoxNC84]

It appears as though Oswalt doesn't want to play for anyone.

 

Well anyone that actually wants him to play for them.

[NativeBostonian]

It appears as though Oswalt doesn't want to play for anyone.

 

Well anyone that actually wants him to play for them.

 

I don't want him anymore. If isn't going to be happy playing for the Red Sox then he isn't going to give an effort on the hill.

[RedSoxNC84]

I agree there. It's starting to look like we'll be cruising into ST with the roster as-is.

[FredLynn]

Being a baseball GM is not an easy job. Those who say it is either don't know what it entails or overvalue their own management abilities.

 

No one said it was easy.

Some here think we could have done better than our previous GM. He made too many expensive mistakes and strategic errors.

[SoxSport]

I think once the Ortiz situation gets settled, if Oswalt is still around, they might consider him again.

If he isn't signed by mid-Feb, his price tag is bound to drop. Of course, you never know if the Yankees might "swoop in" and give the media more fodder to promote them. I don't know if their starting pitching looks that great. They had some luck last year. I'll take Lester-Beckett-Buchholz if they can stay healthy. That's a big "if." Luck, again.

[SoxSport]

No one said it was easy.

Some here think we could have done better than our previous GM. He made too many expensive mistakes and strategic errors.

 

There's a lot of stuff done in the FO that doesn't hit the sports pages. It's a complex job.

 

Picking the right players is a turkey shoot. No team has a patent on getting it right.

The Yankees eat millions in old contracts every year nobody talks about.

[User Name]

No one said it was easy.

Some here think we could have done better than our previous GM. He made too many expensive mistakes and strategic errors.

 

BS. That is exactly what was said.

[User Name]

There's a lot of stuff done in the FO that doesn't hit the sports pages. It's a complex job.

 

Picking the right players is a turkey shoot. No team has a patent on getting it right.

The Yankees eat millions in old contracts every year nobody talks about.

 

This.

[ORS]

Picking the right players is a turkey shoot. No team has a patent on getting it right.

This is about the best way to describe it.

[User Name]

This is about the best way to describe it.

 

I'd like to read your thoughts on the subject. Not a rocket-science to MLB GM comparison, but on the job itself, and the difficulties it entails.

[jung]

Cafardo talking tonight about liking Aceves in the BP as well as the uncertainty of Bard being able to start....went on to talk about the killer BP the Sox would have if both Aceves and Bard stayed in the pen. That seems an impossibility at this point though. At least one of them will have to start I would think.

[User Name]

Unless not one, but two of the "reclamation projects" step up. How nice would it be to be able to have Oswalt/Padilla as the 4/5 starters with Bard and Aceves in the BP.

[FredLynn]

Cafardo talking tonight about liking Aceves in the BP as well as the uncertainty of Bard being able to start....went on to talk about the killer BP the Sox would have if both Aceves and Bard stayed in the pen. That seems an impossibility at this point though. At least one of them will have to start I would think.

 

Bard and Aceves do not have a lock on a SP slot. They are trying out for that position. They could easily end up back in the pen, especially if somehow we get a #4 SP.

[ORS]

I'd like to read your thoughts on the subject. Not a rocket-science to MLB GM comparison' date=' but on the job itself, and the difficulties it entails.[/quote']

I think the major difficulty has already been expressed. Personnel decisions are wildly unpredictable. Everything else is probably pretty routine. Maintain your budget. Assess the performance of your staff. Etc, etc.

[Palodios]

Analyzing David Ortiz’ case with arbitration expert Tal Smith (updated)

Got a question about salary arbitration?

 

Ask Tal Smith.

 

Smith, a longtime front office executive, is regarded as an arbitration expert. He handled his first case for the Yankees in 1974, the year Major League Baseball adopted arbitration, and has since founded a consulting firm that helps teams prepare their cases and make an argument. He was among the first executives to bring analytics and even advanced metrics into the process, and over the years, he has prepared nearly 1,000 cases and taken more than 160 to a hearing.

 

Two days ago, Smith told the Herald that he hasn’t been asked to work on the David Ortiz case. As a result, he was able to help us understand what the Red Sox may be facing if they go to a hearing with Big Papi. Ortiz (Herald photo by Matthew West) is seeking $16.5 million; the Red Sox are offering $12.65 million, a slight raise from his $12.5 million salary last year. A hearing has been scheduled, although neither the Red Sox nor the players’ union will divulge the date. Hearings run through Feb. 17 in St. Petersburg, Fla. In a hearing, a three-person panel would be asked to choose one salary or the other after both sides present their arguments.

 

“In Ortiz’ case, you have to take a look at home runs, RBIs, slugging, OPS and so on, and compare to other recent free-agent signings,” Smith said. “If they’re DHs, that’s great. If they’re not DHs, then you still make the argument and you give them some credit for defense and other contributions.”

 

Ortiz turned 36 in November and batted .309/.398/.554 with 29 homers and 96 RBI last season. Over the past four years, he has gone .271/.367/.513 with 112 homers and 386 RBI. Here are two recent free agents who compare favorably to Ortiz:

 

ADAM DUNN, White Sox

-2010 stats (age 30): .260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 103 RBI

-2007-10 stats (ages 27-30): .257/.382/.533, 156 HR, 414 RBI

-Signed a four-year, $56 million contract after ‘10 season

-2011 salary: $12 million; 2012 salary: $14 million

 

VICTOR MARTINEZ, Tigers

-2010 stats (age 31): .302/.351/.493, 20 HR, 79 RBI

-2007-10 stats (ages 28-31): .299/.365/.475, 70 HR, 336 RBI

-Signed a four-year, $50 million contract after ‘10 season

-2011 salary: $12 million; 2012 salary: $13 million

 

Meanwhile, White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko offers perhaps the best comparison. He is only four months younger than Ortiz, so both players will be 36 throughout this season. Last year, Konerko batted .300/.388/.517 with 31 homers and 105 RBI, and over the past four seasons, he has gone .284/.371/.511 with 120 homers and 366 RBI. And while Ortiz has become a franchise icon during a nine-year tenure with the Red Sox in which he has won two World Series, Konerko has achieved similar status with the White Sox, having played in Chicago since 1999 and won a championship in 2005. Before last season, Konerko signed a three-year, $37.5 million contract extension that paid him $12 million in 2011. He will make $12 million this year and $13.5 million next.

 

Based on those comparisons, it seems the Red Sox’ offer is more in line with the market than Ortiz’ request.

 

Some expert analysis on the Ortiz arbitration case. All three of the comparisons are players I've mentioned previously as similar contracts for their ability. I don't think Ortiz has a case here. Hopefully he'll accept a 2/18 deal and then those luxury cap savings go somewhere.

[SoxSport]

Cafardo talking tonight about liking Aceves in the BP as well as the uncertainty of Bard being able to start....went on to talk about the killer BP the Sox would have if both Aceves and Bard stayed in the pen. That seems an impossibility at this point though. At least one of them will have to start I would think.

 

I think bullpens are overrated. Your best pitchers have to start and throw innings. Traditionally, pitchers worked their way out of the bullpen into the rotation. That's the way the Rays do it.The old fashioned way. Look at their saves numbers--in the high 20s for Farnsworth? That shows flexibility in how they use their pitching. They use their starters into the late innings if warranted. Working your starters on pitch counts is the route to an overworked bullpen.

[jung]

I just don't think they are planning it so that both Bard and Aceves end up in the pen. Look at what they have done to stock up on guys for the pen so far. If both Bard and Aceves end up back there, the pen would seem overstocked compared to what they could expect from the rotation. Lets say they get a #4 from someplace. Would you think any of those guys they brought in will best either Aceves or Bard for the #5?

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox signed 17-year-old Australian Daniel McGrath, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. The left-hander will visit Boston's Spring Training camp for a week before returning to finish high school in Australia. Bradford hears 15 MLB teams had interest before Boston completed the deal.

Hopefully, this will not be our final pitching acquisition before camp opens.

[iortiz]

Heyyyy.. no pitcher yet, huh!

[redsoxfan3]

Some expert analysis on the Ortiz arbitration case. All three of the comparisons are players I've mentioned previously as similar contracts for their ability. I don't think Ortiz has a case here. Hopefully he'll accept a 2/18 deal and then those luxury cap savings go somewhere.

 

I agree with you in saying I don't think he has a strong case either, the only thing is that his numbers were greatly improved last year from 2010. I just hope that they don't think that he deserves a 4 million raise, which he shouldn't. The 2/18 deal would be awesome. I wouldn't even mind him accepting 2/20. My only question is if he does something like a 2 year deal for 18 million, how much would he make during each season? I doubt he makes 9 million both seasons, probably a little more in 2012 and a little less in 2013?

 

I think bullpens are overrated. Your best pitchers have to start and throw innings. Traditionally' date=' pitchers worked their way out of the bullpen into the rotation. That's the way the Rays do it.The old fashioned way. Look at their saves numbers--in the high 20s for Farnsworth? That shows flexibility in how they use their pitching. They use their starters into the late innings if warranted. Working your starters on pitch counts is the route to an overworked bullpen.[/quote']

 

Bullpens are overrated, but it is still important to have a decent closer and setup man to hold leads in close games. You cannot under value a bullpen too much. That is why I am happy we didn't spend so much money on Papelbon. We did a good job this offseason by acquiring Melancon and Bailey for those roles.

 

I just don't think they are planning it so that both Bard and Aceves end up in the pen. Look at what they have done to stock up on guys for the pen so far. If both Bard and Aceves end up back there' date=' the pen would seem overstocked compared to what they could expect from the rotation. Lets say they get a #4 from someplace. Would you think any of those guys they brought in will best either Aceves or Bard for the #5?[/quote']

 

Our pen would no doubt be one of the best in baseball if they both stayed in the pen, but I sure as hell would rather have one of Bard or Aceves in the rotation. I feel like if one stays in the pen and one stays in the rotation that it helps balance the rotation and the pen. The rotation needs some help. I could deal with this Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, and Padilla/Doubrount in the rotation and Aceves, Melancon, and Bailey at the backend of our pen. That is pretty decent in my opinion. If we do bring in a #4, I still think one of Bard or Aceves stays in the rotation. At the end of the day you have to do what is best for the team, Bard or Aceves would be a better option than Doubront or Padilla in the rotation in my opinion. But that is the thing, it is a matter of opinion. Let's see how Spring Training goes.

 

Hopefully' date=' this will not be our final pitching acquisition before camp opens.[/quote']

 

Maybe we get extremely lucky and something happens where we can sign Oswalt. I know that a couple people are saying that since he doesn't seem like he wants to pitch here then they don't want him on our team at all, but if something were to go in our favor and we can still get him, then I still think he will give it his all. I see Roy as a hard worker. We will have to get lucky though, because yesterday it was reported that there is "no traction" between us and Roy.

[SoxSport]

I just don't think they are planning it so that both Bard and Aceves end up in the pen. Look at what they have done to stock up on guys for the pen so far. If both Bard and Aceves end up back there' date=' the pen would seem overstocked compared to what they could expect from the rotation. Lets say they get a #4 from someplace. Would you think any of those guys they brought in will best either Aceves or Bard for the #5?[/quote']

 

Agree. While Cafardo seems at times to have a mole in the Sox organization, I hope he's wrong here. If these guys were going to be in the BP, they would have signed at least one major FA pitcher. I don't think they have the starter depth for both these guys to be in the bullpen. And starting is more important than relieving.

[SoxSport]

 

 

Bullpens are overrated, but it is still important to have a decent closer and setup man to hold leads in close games. You cannot under value a bullpen too much. That is why I am happy we didn't spend so much money on Papelbon. We did a good job this offseason by acquiring Melancon and Bailey for those roles.

 

 

 

 

Yes and no. Yes, you need a lights out guy in the bullpen to finish close games when needed. The rest of closing can be handled by any decent pitcher. Closers have agents, and agents look at saves to determine salaries. Saves are overrated. Most of them can be handled by cheap pitchers. But you need that lights out guy to handle the tough one-run saves. That's the way baseball used to be played--before the fantasy save stat.

 

As for setup, that's less important. You don't need a lights out setup guy. You have a close game, you stick with your starter, or bring in your closer--who can throw more than an inning because he is used only in 1- or 2- run situations.

 

Using a setup guy to automatically pitch the 8th and a closer to automatically pitch the 9th because of the save stat is a waste of bullpen.

 

As a footnote, can you imagine a "closer" and his agent kicking and screaming if he wasn't used in a 3-run game--and deprived of a save? LOL

[Bellhorn04]

Yes and no. Yes' date=' you need a lights out guy in the bullpen to finish close games [b']when needed[/b]. The rest of closing can be handled by any decent pitcher. Closers have agents, and agents look at saves to determine salaries. Saves are overrated. Most of them can be handled by cheap pitchers. But you need that lights out guy to handle the tough one-run saves. That's the way baseball used to be played--before the fantasy save stat.

 

As for setup, that's less important. You don't need a lights out setup guy. You have a close game, you stick with your starter, or bring in your closer--who can throw more than an inning because he is used only in 1- or 2- run situations.

 

Using a setup guy to automatically pitch the 8th and a closer to automatically pitch the 9th because of the save stat is a waste of bullpen.

 

As a footnote, can you imagine a "closer" and his agent kicking and screaming if he wasn't used in a 3-run game--and deprived of a save? LOL

 

I agree that the stat save is dumb and overrated.

 

I don't agree that the importance of a strong setup guy and a strong bullpen is overrated.

 

One of the things that killed the Sox last September was the games blown by the bullpen, Bard in particular.

 

Also, the World Series was a clinic in bullpens deciding games. Larussa and Washington were playing almost every game to get 5-6 from their starter and then move to the procession of relievers.

[seabeachfred]

Some expert analysis on the Ortiz arbitration case. All three of the comparisons are players I've mentioned previously as similar contracts for their ability. I don't think Ortiz has a case here. Hopefully he'll accept a 2/18 deal and then those luxury cap savings go somewhere.

 

Please Palodios, not a multi-year contract. What if he suddenly goes into a funk and has a rotten year (a possibility because he had three rotten half-years in a row back in 2008-2010)? We're not only stuck with him for another season but Ryan Lavarnway is blocked indefinately. To me that is absolutely stupid to the core; he is our best RH power prospect and you cannot to waste young talent like that. Besides, after this year he comes off the books with Dice K and a couple of others and we have some potential money freed up for players who can help us. With more inter-league games scheduled in 2013 do we want this guy in the lineup at f irst base and risk Gonzales in the OF? You know damn well Diva will not be content to be sitting on the bench in those games. A morale problem might develop if he was forced to sit. One year and out . Besides, he is no longer Big Papi, team leader and clutch performer. He has become a very selfish player and a big prima donna.

[User Name]

Please Palodios' date=' not a multi-year contract. What if he suddenly goes into a funk and has a rotten year (a possibility because he had three rotten half-years in a row back in 2008-2010)? We're not only stuck with him for another season but Ryan Lavarnway is blocked indefinately. To me that is absolutely stupid to the core; he is our best RH power prospect and you cannot to waste young talent like that. Besides, after this year he comes off the books with Dice K and a couple of others and we have some potential money freed up for players who can help us. With more inter-league games scheduled in 2013 do we want this guy in the lineup at f irst base and risk Gonzales in the OF? You know damn well Diva will not be content to be sitting on the bench in those games. A morale problem might develop if he was forced to sit. One year and out . Besides, he is no longer Big Papi, team leader and clutch performer. He has become a very selfish player and a big prima donna.[/quote']

 

So wait.....2010 was a rotten year for Ortiz? He hit for an .899 OPS with 32 HR. That is most MLB player's career year.

 

Let's not get carried away here because of personal (and usually conjecture-based) judgements about Ortiz.

 

He was a bargain for the Red Sox for years on end, and now that he's trying to get paid (deservedly so) he gets showered with insults from the team's "fans".

 

About the "no longer clutch" point: Ortiz has had OPS's with men on of 1.008 , .934 and .810 in 2011, 2010 and 2009 (his sub .800 OPS season).

 

 

 

Jesus, no wonder Oswalt doesn't wanna pitch here.

[ORS]

While his numbers with men on may have been good, I think many who feel he is no longer "clutch" do so because he doesn't grab victory from the jaws of defeat like he did during his insane stretch from mid-2003 through 2007. Now, to expect that to have continued is beyond unrealistic, but I'm certain that where comments like that come from.

[FredLynn]

Please Palodios' date=' not a multi-year contract. What if he suddenly goes into a funk and has a rotten year (a possibility because he had three rotten half-years in a row back in 2008-2010)? We're not only stuck with him for another season but Ryan Lavarnway is blocked indefinately. To me that is absolutely stupid to the core; he is our best RH power prospect and you cannot to waste young talent like that. Besides, after this year he comes off the books with Dice K and a couple of others and we have some potential money freed up for players who can help us. With more inter-league games scheduled in 2013 do we want this guy in the lineup at f irst base and risk Gonzales in the OF? You know damn well Diva will not be content to be sitting on the bench in those games. A morale problem might develop if he was forced to sit. One year and out . Besides, he is no longer Big Papi, team leader and clutch performer. He has become a very selfish player and a big prima donna.[/quote']

 

Oh, I disagree Fred. I would offer Ortiz a two year deal in the blind of an eye.

Here is the offer: two years at $6M per year.

[a700hitter]

Phillies Considered Oswalt; Deal Unlikely

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [February 8 at 4:02pm CST]

 

The Phillies have called around to determine trade interest in Joe Blanton, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports (all Twitter links). Moving Blanton and part of his $8.5MM salary would create payroll room for Roy Oswalt, but GM Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn't expect to be able to free up money to sign the right-hander. Though the Phillies have had dialogue about bringing Oswalt back to Philadelphia, a deal seems unlikely.

 

We heard yesterday that there's no traction between the Red Sox and Oswalt, that the Reds haven't had serious talks with him, and that he doesn't want to play in Pittsburgh. Oswalt, the top free agent pitcher remaining, is likely to sign a one-year deal for 2012. I doubt teams would commit $8.5MM to Blanton, who pitched just 41 1/3 innings last year.

I think it is becoming obvious that the Red Sox have no interest in Oswalt.

[Elktonnick]

I think it is becoming obvious that the Red Sox have no interest in Oswalt.

 

The question now becomes who does?