2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

Wheeler is a pen guy. We need' date=' in addition, a decent #4 SP like Kuroda or Jackson or possibly Oswalt. Those guys (#4s) are not dominant pitchers, usually. But they should be able to keep their team in the game.[/quote']

 

ohhh I my bad I thought that you meant as #5 SP. Yes he is a solid pen guy. I'm not sure why they didn't resign him. I wonder How much is he asking?

[RedSoxNC84]

ohhh I my bad I thought that you meant as #5 SP. Yes he is a solid pen guy. I'm not sure why they didn't resign him. I wonder How much is he asking?

 

As far as I can tell they haven't offered him a contract. They declined the club option on him, and then offered him arbitration, which he declined.

[iortiz]

What I don't understand is why the Sox would decline their option on him' date=' and then offer him arbitration.. I don't know if he has any other offers, but I would really like to see him with the Sox again this season.[/quote']

 

Did they have a year option and declined?, sorry but it sounds like a dumb move by Ben, mostly if after that they offered him arbitration and then left the "doors open". He can help us a lot in the pen and mostly if Aceves goes to the rotation.

[User Name]

Sure you are Ortiz. Its because UserName cannot accept the facts here either. Friedman has done a GREAT job in Tampa' date=' much better than the job Epstein did here.[/quote']

 

Both rhetoric and spouting opinion as fact! Double whammy!

 

Re: Wheeler: They should bring the guy back.

[win red sox]

We're still waiting to hear from the so-called optimists on this. As predicted' date=' they got nothing.:thumbdown[/quote']

 

I can see your point, it's hard imagine that Bard would have a better year than Lackey did in 2011. I really can't mention Buchholz, because he will miss most the year again, so he's not an improvement. Come to think of it, it would be nearly impossible for Doubrant to Match Wakefield/Weiland/Millers incredible year of 2011. I can see how Bailey is a huge downgrade from Papelbum and Melancon won't come close to Bard's numbers. What a s*** team, I'm guessing a 100 loss team. Maybe if Ben spent 1/12 on Kuroda and then 1/15 on oswalt and then possibly for "depth" he signs Jackson at 4/60. Maybe we would be a 81 win team.

[Elktonnick]

Both rhetoric and spouting opinion as fact! Double whammy!

 

Re: Wheeler: They should bring the guy back.

 

You have no idea what rhetoric means.

[User Name]

I have his book. Again you are the one who said he wasn't a sabermetrician. I first cited from his book years ago. You only changed from Bard after I posted the data that proved you misrepresented what James actually projected. Once again you deceive and misrepresent. When caught in an outright lie you change stories. You have no integrity. I stand by my statements you are intellectually dishonest. As far as Tango I accurately represent his views at least I knew who he was.

 

Blah blah blah. I said he wasn't the only sabermetrician in existence. But nice try. I understand you were desperately trying to defend your position, which lacked substance. So you proceeded to exploit a mistake on my part and blow it out of proportion. It's okay, it happens when people have a weaksauce argument. You'll get over it.

 

I reviewed the post from November and you clearly disputed Tango credentials as a sabermetrician. You only said you knew who he was until after I posted his resume. (Just as you did with James's projections) Also as part of that exchange which Ortiz joined in you said you did your own research in essence substituting your statistical judgment for published professional sabermetricians. If that is true, then it is perfectly acceptable to question your qualifiications regarding mathematics and statistics. I assume when and if you repsond you will enlighten us on your professional qualifications in this field.

 

This is proof that you either don't get the whole "reading comprehension" thing or you're making s*** up because, well, what else can you do when your argument is proven wrong?

 

I said his opinion was not the be-all, end-all, and posted some differing opinions. I stand by that by the way.That is not discrediting him. Again with the strawman thing. You're good at that. You're the one who knowingly lied about his position on sacrificing and stealing bases: Nice going, liar!

 

Anyways, let me put it bluntly:

 

Both James and the Rotochamp projections use an algorithm (the roto one derives from the James one actually) that attempts to eliminate bias from the projections. That was the point of the posting. If you're as smart as you say, you know this, or you don't know this, and you're not as smart as you say. Either way the attempt at redirection is weak.

 

Counter this fact (and it is a fact): Your opinion is not fact.

 

I'm waiting.

 

Aren't you ever going to answer my question directly???? What a liar!

[User Name]

You have no idea what rhetoric means.

 

I am certainly sure you do. Like perfectly.

[a700hitter]

Did they have a year option and declined?' date=' sorry but it sounds like a dumb move by Ben, mostly if after that they offered him arbitration and then left the "doors open". He can help us a lot in the pen and mostly if Aceves goes to the rotation.[/quote']I think the option was for $3 million.

[Elktonnick]

Blah blah blah. I said he wasn't the only sabermetrician in existence. But nice try. I understand you were desperately trying to defend your position, which lacked substance. So you proceeded to exploit a mistake on my part and blow it out of proportion. It's okay, it happens when people have a weaksauce argument. You'll get over it.

 

 

 

This is proof that you either don't get the whole "reading comprehension" thing or you're making s*** up because, well, what else can you do when your argument is proven wrong?

 

I said his opinion was not the be-all, end-all, and posted some differing opinions. I stand by that by the way.That is not discrediting him. Again with the strawman thing. You're good at that. You're the one who knowingly lied about his position on sacrificing and stealing bases: Nice going, liar!

 

Anyways, let me put it bluntly:

 

Both James and the Rotochamp projections use an algorithm (the roto one derives from the James one actually) that attempts to eliminate bias from the projections. That was the point of the posting. If you're as smart as you say, you know this, or you don't know this, and you're not as smart as you say. Either way the attempt at redirection is weak.

 

Counter this fact (and it is a fact): Your opinion is not fact.

 

I'm waiting.

 

Aren't you ever going to answer my question directly???? What a liar!

 

Finally I assumed you were researching. I notice that you are always amend your remarks after you get called out.

I never misstated their opinion on sac bunts and stolen bases.

 

In any case you are changing the subject. You were the one today who got caught with misrepresenting James and only changed after you were caught just like the Tango incident. Those are the facts.

[User Name]

It's okay man, we've all been there (been wrong). No need to call names, get butthurt and lie.

[Elktonnick]

I am certainly sure you do. Like perfectly.

 

Again afraid to answer because you use words and concepts you have no idea what they mean. Today with Google you can get the answer quickly. I suggest you do so. You may learn something.

[User Name]

I'm certain you also handle the word very well. You are also a master of the art. I would never argue with you on a subject in which you are clearly my superior. I bow out gracefully.

[iortiz]

I think the option was for $3 million.

 

pfffff I see.

[Elktonnick]

I'm certain you also handle the word very well. You are also a master of the art. I would never argue with you on a subject in which you are clearly my superior. I bow out gracefully.

 

LOL Touche Until the next joust!

[User Name]

LOL Touche Until the next joust!

 

Let me tell you that even though we get a little heated, i so enjoy arguing with you good sir.

[a700hitter]

I can see your point' date=' it's hard imagine that Bard would have a better year than Lackey did in 2011. I really can't mention Buchholz, because he will miss most the year again, so he's not an improvement. Come to think of it, it would be nearly impossible for Doubrant to Match Wakefield/Weiland/Millers incredible year of 2011. I can see how Bailey is a huge downgrade from Papelbum and Melancon won't come close to Bard's numbers. What a s*** team, I'm guessing a 100 loss team. Maybe if Ben spent 1/12 on Kuroda and then 1/15 on oswalt and then possibly for "depth" he signs Jackson at 4/60. Maybe we would be a 81 win team.[/quote']^A compelling argument.

This will be very difficult to refute. For starters (pun intended), from the numbers that I have seen, Bard was worse as a starter in the low minor leagues than Lackey was last year. Hard to believe. Also really hard to believe that Melancon will be anuwhere close to the shutdown 8th inning guy that Bard has been. It's also hard for me to believe that Doubrant is capable of holding down a rotation spot in the major leagues, nevermind being better than any other starters past or present. It's also hard for me to believe that Josh Beckett will pitch anywhere near the ERA he pitched to last year.

 

How about a serious argument instead of sarcasm the next time. The answer is that no serious argument can be made that the 2012 pitching will be better than 2011. There is nothing to support it.

[Elktonnick]

Let me tell you that even though we get a little heated' date=' i so enjoy arguing with you good sir.[/quote']

 

The feeling is mutual. BTW I retract my liar comment it was overwrought on my part.

[User Name]

The feeling is mutual. BTW I retract my liar comment it was overwrought on my part.

 

No hard feelings. It be a message board. Also, i find you to be more knowledgeable about the pros and cons of statistical analysis than most. I love to have someone to argue with about it even if it's a round of jousting! LOL!

 

 

Back to baseball:

 

I know Padilla is a nut case, but he's throwing 96 in the Winter Leagues. Would you consider him better depth than Cook and Silva?

 

He's healthy, and has BP experience.

[Elktonnick]

No hard feelings. It be a message board. Also, i find you to be more knowledgeable about the pros and cons of statistical analysis than most. I love to have someone to argue with about it even if it's a round of jousting! LOL!

 

 

Back to baseball:

 

I know Padilla is a nut case, but he's throwing 96 in the Winter Leagues. Would you consider him better depth than Cook and Silva?

 

He's healthy, and has BP experience.

 

My problem with him is not baseball but his mental health. This team has problems that can't be measured with quantitative data. Crawford's confidence, Beckett's attitude Youklis's personality etc. One really has to be concerned whether another "head case" is too much to overcome. I worry about team chemistry. I think last year's team wasn't equal to the sum of its parts. That's my issue with Padilla

[User Name]

My problem with him is not baseball but his mental health. This team has problems that can't be measured with quantitative data. Crawford's confidence' date=' Beckett's attitude Youklis's personality etc. One really has to be concerned whether another "head case" is too much to overcome. I worry about team chemistry. I think last year's team wasn't equal to the sum of its parts. That's my issue with Padilla[/quote']

 

But if there's someone who can help Padilla remain stable for an entire season, that's Bobby Valentine.

 

Besides, he'll be on an easy to rip-up contract. If he acts up, away with him.

[Elktonnick]

But if there's someone who can help Padilla remain stable for an entire season, that's Bobby Valentine.

 

Besides, he'll be on an easy to rip-up contract. If he acts up, away with him.

 

BV may be agreat manager but a nut case could do considerable damage in a real short time. The question is whether the juice is worth the squeeze!

[redsoxfan3]

No hard feelings. It be a message board. Also, i find you to be more knowledgeable about the pros and cons of statistical analysis than most. I love to have someone to argue with about it even if it's a round of jousting! LOL!

 

 

Back to baseball:

 

I know Padilla is a nut case, but he's throwing 96 in the Winter Leagues. Would you consider him better depth than Cook and Silva?

 

He's healthy, and has BP experience.

 

Padilla is a veteran, he has 13 seasons in the pros and is only 34. I think there may be more upside with Padilla than maybe Cook or Silva. I know on MLBTR that they were saying Padilla is interested in trying to take a crack at the starting rotation. Obviously injuries are a concern with Padilla. I think in the spring he will be given an opportunity to start some games, although I am hoping that we can maybe find use for him in the bullpen if he does have a bounce back year. I don't want to rely on Padilla in the rotation, he could be a spot starter if needed, but I think if anything he might be able to add some important depth in the bullpen for us if needed. I know that we have a lot of RH relief pitchers as it is, but with his velocity reaching 96, I could see him with some sort of value in the bullpen for us if he has a good spring. I see him on the same level as Silva and Cook, just another low risk starting pitcher signing, but I think he may have a better chance than Cook or Silva. That is just my opinion. We need some bullpen depth as it is. These cheap SP signings are starting to get really old though.

 

Here is a question that I don't know much about. I am not really good with minor league contracts and the money involved. With the signings of guys like Duckworth, Haeger, Carlson, Silva, Cook, Hill, Pena, Spears, Spoone, Inman, Mathis, Spears, etc., how much are there contracts actually worth? I know some of them are incentive laden contracts, but I know there is a guaranteed amount. Are they each worth around 1 million guaranteed or is it less than that? I am asking this because we haven't really signed an actual reliable starter yet. If they are worth 1 million guaranteed, then that could be 10 million dollars we have spent on guys that are going to be in the minors/guys that we are hoping to get value out of that are considered low risk signings. I know we have spots to fill in the minors as well, but say instead of spending that money on some of these contracts, then we could have spent that money on a reliable starter. I am not sure if that logic is correct or not, but it just seems that we are making several of these cheap signings and if we keep signing these cheap, low risk players, then why not try to spend that money somewhere else on someone who will actually be reliable? I am sure it adds up. Can someone give me some insight on this? It is interesting to me.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

I can't wait to spend my summer watching Padilla's sweaty, ugly, swollen, mayan statue looking face get shelled

[User Name]

Here is a question that I don't know much about. I am not really good with minor league contracts and the money involved. With the signings of guys like Duckworth' date=' Haeger, Carlson, Silva, Cook, Hill, Pena, Spears, Spoone, Inman, Mathis, Spears, etc., how much are there contracts actually worth? I know some of them are incentive laden contracts, but I know there is a guaranteed amount. Are they each worth around 1 million guaranteed or is it less than that? I am asking this because we haven't really signed an actual reliable starter yet. If they are worth 1 million guaranteed, then that could be 10 million dollars we have spent on guys that are going to be in the minors/guys that we are hoping to get value out of that are considered low risk signings. I know we have spots to fill in the minors as well, but say instead of spending that money on some of these contracts, then we could have spent that money on a reliable starter. I am not sure if that logic is correct or not, but it just seems that we are making several of these cheap signings and if we keep signing these cheap, low risk players, then why not try to spend that money somewhere else on someone who will actually be reliable? I am sure it adds up. Can someone give me some insight on this? It is interesting to me.[/quote']

 

Most of them are league minimum AKA 400 K plus incentives and unlike guaranteed MLB contracts, those with MiLB contracts have no direct impact on the MLB payroll unless called up to the Majors.

[win red sox]

^A compelling argument.

This will be very difficult to refute. For starters (pun intended), from the numbers that I have seen, Bard was worse as a starter in the low minor leagues than Lackey was last year. Hard to believe. Also really hard to believe that Melancon will be anuwhere close to the shutdown 8th inning guy that Bard has been. It's also hard for me to believe that Doubrant is capable of holding down a rotation spot in the major leagues, nevermind being better than any other starters past or present. It's also hard for me to believe that Josh Beckett will pitch anywhere near the ERA he pitched to last year.

 

How about a serious argument instead of sarcasm the next time. The answer is that no serious argument can be made that the 2012 pitching will be better than 2011. There is nothing to support it.

 

you've converted me, I agree with everything you said, and plus you can add that Ellsbury will not come close to next year's numbers, scutaro also will probaly not either. I also don't think Gonzales will hit for as high average as he did last year, and Ortiz will have significant drop off in production. Youkilis will be lucky to stay healthy for 300 abs the way his last 2 years have gone, and the worse part of this is there nobody close in the minors ready to contribute. The closer I look at, it will be probaly be a couple of years until we become competitive, well at least until Lackey and Beckett come off the books, and by that time Ellsbury will be gone via free agency(no way he signs back with Boston). So if we can deal with a couple of dismal years and start rebuilding 2015, we should be competitive by 2017. I would be shocked if we won 81 games this year, the rotation is horrofic, the pen is in shambles, and the offense is on the decline.

[redsoxfan3]

Most of them are league minimum AKA 400 K plus incentives.

 

Thank you. So, with Padilla's deal, that makes it at least 14 minor league contracts that we have made recently. That is at least 5.6 million in minor league deals that we have dished out (assuming that they are all guaranteed the league minimum of 400K). I know some of the signings are necessary, but in my opinion that money could have went into a more reliable starter. 5.6 million is basically half of what we could probably get for Oswalt. I am still not sure what Kuroda's one year asking price would be. I remember reading $13 million somewhere. I am still not sure what Saunders asking price is. It is at least an interesting thought to me.

[User Name]

Thank you. So' date=' with Padilla's deal, that makes it at least 14 minor league contracts that we have made recently. That is at least 5.6 million in minor league deals that we have dished out (assuming that they are all guaranteed the league minimum of 400K). I know some of the signings are necessary, but in my opinion that money could have went into a more reliable starter. 5.6 million is basically half of what we could probably get for Oswalt. I am still not sure what Kuroda's one year asking price would be. I remember reading $13 million somewhere. I am still not sure what Saunders asking price is. It is at least an interesting thought to me.[/quote']

 

That money doesn't impact the luxury tax threshold unless they make the 40-man roster though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

^A compelling argument.

This will be very difficult to refute. For starters (pun intended), from the numbers that I have seen, Bard was worse as a starter in the low minor leagues than Lackey was last year. Hard to believe. Also really hard to believe that Melancon will be anuwhere close to the shutdown 8th inning guy that Bard has been. It's also hard for me to believe that Doubrant is capable of holding down a rotation spot in the major leagues, nevermind being better than any other starters past or present. It's also hard for me to believe that Josh Beckett will pitch anywhere near the ERA he pitched to last year.

 

How about a serious argument instead of sarcasm the next time. The answer is that no serious argument can be made that the 2012 pitching will be better than 2011. There is nothing to support it.

 

Bard was walking 9 per 9 IP when he had those numbers. He was also 21 years old. In each of his last 3 seasons, his BB/9 has decreased.

 

In his career, he has allowed a .582 OPS against him. Do you really think that after seeing Bard an extra 1-2 times, hitters are going to be able to bump that 300 points and OPS .880 off of him like they did Lackey?

 

Call me overly optimistic, but I just really do not see it happening. I think he'll have a season very similar to Alexi Ogando last year. About 170-180 IP. First half, domination. Second half, the innings start to catch up to him.

 

Overall, probably a 13-14 win, 3.50 ERA season.

[User Name]

Bard was walking 9 per 9 IP when he had those numbers. He was also 21 years old. In each of his last 3 seasons, his BB/9 has decreased.

 

In his career, he has allowed a .582 OPS against him. Do you really think that after seeing Bard an extra 1-2 times, hitters are going to be able to bump that 300 points and OPS .880 off of him like they did Lackey?

 

Call me overly optimistic, but I just really do not see it happening. I think he'll have a season very similar to Alexi Ogando last year. About 170-180 IP. First half, domination. Second half, the innings start to catch up to him.

 

Overall, probably a 13-14 win, 3.50 ERA season.

 

That's how RotoChamps and RotoWorld predict his performance, actually, but with 155 and 150 IP respectively. I think they don't take into consideration a possible move back to the 'pen though.