2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

Reds To Sign Ryan Madson

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 10 at 9:56pm CST]

The Reds have agreed to sign Ryan Madson, Jon Heyman of SI.com tweets. Scott Boras represents the right-hander, who figures to become the closer in Cincinnati's new-look bullpen.

 

Madson posted a 2.37 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 48.8% ground ball rate in 60 2/3 innings for the Phillies in 2011. The 31-year-old saved 32 games in his first full season as a closer. Last week*17.7% of 13,700 MLBTR*readers said they expect Madson to sign with the Reds. Madson ranked 14th on MLBTR's list of top free agents entering the offseason.

 

The Reds don't have to surrender a draft pick to sign Madson, but the Phillies will obtain two picks this June for losing him after offering arbitration. One selection will come before the Reds' first round pick and the other will come in the supplementary draft.

 

I want to know the details of the contract.

[seabeachfred]

They don't bother me that much' date=' it's just that "The King" likes them.[/quote']

 

Aw come on User---you and 700 are rabid Red So fans and have more in common than you think, just as you have more in common with me even though we go round and round much of the time. Right now most of us are swaying back and forth trying to make heads or tails of which way the team is going. Keep in mind that I have held that the team could win the division this season if we upgrade where we need to, but when you list guys like Germano, Cook, Haeger, Silva and the other guy who slipped my mind, well a person's optimism can take a real hit. We are already over the cap anyway, and if we finally say adios to Ortiz after this season along with Matsuzaka and a couple of others we ought to get down to point where we won't get socked by the LT. Right now we have to spend to get that pitcher we need, pure and simple---that is, if we want to win.

[iortiz]

Subtract another Big fish from the list.

 

Seems like Oswalt is the only option available.

[win red sox]

Substract another Big fish from the list.

 

Seems like Oswalt is the only option available.

 

Kuroda?

[iortiz]

Kuroda?

 

According with WEII, he is out of our list.

[iortiz]

Aw come on User---you and 700 are rabid Red So fans and have more in common than you think' date=' just as you have more in common with me even though we go round and round much of the time. Right now most of us are swaying back and forth trying to make heads or tails of which way the team is going. Keep in mind that I have held that the team could win the division this season if we upgrade where we need to, but when you list guys like Germano, Cook, Haeger, Silva and the other guy who slipped my mind, well a person's optimism can take a real hit. [b']We are already over the cap anyway[/b], and if we finally say adios to Ortiz after this season along with Matsuzaka and a couple of others we ought to get down to point where we won't get socked by the LT. Right now we have to spend to get that pitcher we need, pure and simple---that is, if we want to win.

 

It's funny, Pal says that we're under the cap. Seems like this is a mystery too.

[win red sox]

According with WEII' date=' he is out of our list.[/quote']

 

I don't see any other landing spots for him, the Yankees already have there rotation set and the only other team that has been linked to him is the Mariners. Kuroda to the Red Sox makes sense, make it happen Ben!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jung]

I think that at the moment we are about $2M under the cap but once you get this close it is very hard to be definitive unless you have been tracking it with full knowledge of all the particulars.

 

When they cut it this fine I would not be surprised if it is hard for the teams themselves to keep track of the numbers. News media in this town ask so many whacko questions, that one would actually be a good one to ask for a change. They are just right on top of it though one way or the other. I do think they would likely be going after Kuroda harder at this point if they were in fact over. What is the point of playing so close to the vest if they are already over.

 

It is a bit disturbing that the later report today was that they were not even in the running. That may not matter though. Unless they have made it painfully obvious that they were not interesting his agent would surely give the Sox one last shot at him.

 

Been saying for weeks now that they were never in the running for Madson so that much is no surprise.

 

Kuroda would push them way over....there would be no doubt about it at that point. If they do go over this would be year three in a row...I have not looked at it in awhile but I think under the new tax structure three years running earns them some number like 27.5% I think. Year 4 would yield a 50% tax rate. Year 4 is the big upside change in the rate.

 

I do think it is kinda' funny that we are making a 5th pitcher the linchpin to a successful season. Even if we do land him I suspect we will look back on these days and laugh at how much we have put this deal at the center of the universe.

[FredLynn]

Then... The option is the #1 which I don't like it. We have spent 3 years without winning a single PO game my friend. 4 years in a row would be very tough.

 

I don't like it either. I would like even less going over the cap and not being able to get a top notch SP next year who would be with the club for years.

Sacrifice one more year for several years of potential success.

[iortiz]

I think that at the moment we are about $2M under the cap but once you get this close it is very hard to be definitive unless you have been tracking it with full knowledge of all the particulars.

 

When they cut it this fine I would not be surprised if it is hard for the teams themselves to keep track of the numbers. News media in this town ask so many whacko questions, that one would actually be a good one to ask for a change. They are just right on top of it though one way or the other. I do think they would likely be going after Kuroda harder at this point if they were in fact over. What is the point of playing so close to the vest if they are already over.

 

It is a bit disturbing that the later report today was that they were not even in the running. That may not matter though. Unless they have made it painfully obvious that they were not interesting his agent would surely give the Sox one last shot at him.

 

Been saying for weeks now that they were never in the running for Madson so that much is no surprise.

 

Kuroda would push them way over....there would be no doubt about it at that point. If they do go over this would be year three in a row...I have not looked at it in awhile but I think under the new tax structure three years running earns them some number like 27.5% I think. Year 4 would yield a 50% tax rate. Year 4 is the big upside change in the rate.

 

I do think it is kinda' funny that we are making a 5th pitcher the linchpin to a successful season. Even if we do land him I suspect we will look back on these days and laugh at how much we have put this deal at the center of the universe.

 

agree.

 

The thing Jung is that at least one of our top 3 will likely go to the DL next year, regardless Bard will make his debut as a SP and the #5 is still a mystery. if this is true and Bard shits the bed, this #4 becomes very important. I think that this is the reason why this SP is becoming the center of our universe.

[iortiz]

I don't like it either. I would like even less going over the cap and not being able to get a top notch SP next year who would be with the club for years.

Sacrifice one more year for several years of potential success.

 

Well, then I will follow my soccer team in 2012.

[jung]

The thing Jung is that at least one of our top 3 will likely go to the DL next year, regardless Bard will make his debut as a SP and still the #5 is still a mystery. if this is true and Bard shits the bed, this #4 becomes very important. I think that this is the reason why this SP is becoming the center of our universe.

 

My point is that I think there are so many other banana peels that this team can likely trip over next year...with the health of their #4 pitcher only being one of them. I know we love to look at our glittering stars and dream about how it would take very little for them to simply play to form and there we are skipping our way to the post season.

 

I don't think this is very well constructed team. I am inclined to think that it is poorly prepared to withstand adversity and I am not convinced that V is the answer. In fact i would also not be surprised if by year end we were trying to string him up by his fingernails on this very board.

 

My problem is not that there is no chance of them making it. My problem is that the chance that they will go nowhere is as good as the chance that they will get to the post season if not better.

[example1]

Plain and simple E1. Is he using moneyball concepts in order to rebuild his team? Yes or no. To me seems so. Are they going to splash in 2013? I have no idea.

 

BL. IMO Cubs will likely suck in 2012 unless Theo make something magical.

 

As ORS noted, I took your mentioning skepticism about the moneyball approach and the signing of cheap players as evidence that you saw the moneyball approach primarily as going for cheap acquisitions, particularly because there was no mention of a rebuilding process or the obvious likelihood that there will eventually be big signings.

 

Yes, there is sabermetric analysis inherent in every move that Theo makes. And yes, the Cubs will undoubtedly be doing an undervalued assets analysis throughout.

 

Trying to clear the field of their s***** players and contracts, or moving their better (not great) players for good prospects is just part of clearing the decks for a future run.

 

Not, really, not when you say things like....

 

So and So believes in this

So and So is doing this with his roster

______________ (fill in the blank)

 

While it's not explicitly stated, filling in the blank with a continuation of the logic points to an indictment of either the philosophy or the So and So. That generates discussion, particularly when the philosophy is used in the incorrect context, and/or there are other motivations (like a complete rebuild) to account for the roster moves.

 

 

I think every GM is a "moneyball" GM, when you use the term properly. Remember, the point of the book was about finding undervalued sources of production. Every GM is interested in this. Some use different methods, but I'm confident all do it to some degree. I don't think you can pigeonhole "moneyball" into a niche philosophy.

 

So, yes, he is, and, yes, I think it can be used to rebuild a team. I don't think he will change his philosophy from the success he had in Boston. I think they will focus on player development/drafting, rebuilding the minor league system, finding value on the FA market, and making targeted big contract acquisitions. I don't think those targeted acquisitions are likely in this first year of the process. Right now, the moves they are making look like short-term stop-gaps.

 

I appreciate you explaining this ORS. Post more.

[iortiz]

As ORS noted, I took your mentioning skepticism about the moneyball approach and the signing of cheap players as evidence that you saw the moneyball approach primarily as going for cheap acquisitions, particularly because there was no mention of a rebuilding process or the obvious likelihood that there will eventually be big signings.

 

Yes, there is sabermetric analysis inherent in every move that Theo makes. And yes, the Cubs will undoubtedly be doing an undervalued assets analysis throughout.

 

Trying to clear the field of their s***** players and contracts, or moving their better (not great) players for good prospects is just part of clearing the decks for a future run.

I'm not sure if take this answer as a "yes" or as a "no" to my question.

[Bellhorn04]

Kuroda would push them way over....there would be no doubt about it at that point. If they do go over this would be year three in a row...I have not looked at it in awhile but I think under the new tax structure three years running earns them some number like 27.5% I think. Year 4 would yield a 50% tax rate. Year 4 is the big upside change in the rate.

 

We're still under the old system in which the rates were 22.5, 30, 40. 2012 would be our third year in a row over the cap so the rate will be 40% for 2012. I confirmed this in a couple of places.

 

Under the new system there will be 4 rates-17.5, 30, 40, 50.

[BSN07]

I want to know the details of the contract.

 

It's for one year worth 8.5M-10M from what I have read.

[jung]

Thanks Bellhorn. I had lost track of the second and third year numbers. The big changes in the new system are in the first and fourth years and those stuck in the depleted memory banks.

[jung]

It's for one year worth 8.5M-10M from what I have read.

 

Wow if this is true this is truly discouraging news. If the Sox were unwilling to belly up to the bar with a competitive offer under these circumstances, it tends to support my comments that they really were looking for these guys to fall to something like $5M which I don't think is going to happen. $10M seems high but $8.5 would seem a very reasonable one year contract number.

 

I will say one thing though....a quick read of the available most recent announcements on Kuroda raises the possibility in my mind that the Sox may in fact have the best 1 year deal on the table for Kuroda right now and his agents might be shopping him around the available candidates looking for a little improvement. I think that might be as likely as anything else at this point since a number of likely suiters seem to have fallen away. However if it does end up being that he goes elsewhere for something like $8.5 for a one year deal, maybe a little less, then my opening comments in this post are more like what I am thinking.

[Palodios]

Wow if this is true this is truly discouraging news. If the Sox were unwilling to belly up to the bar with a competitive offer under these circumstances, it tends to support my comments that they really were looking for these guys to fall to something like $5M which I don't think is going to happen. $10M seems high but $8.5 would seem a very reasonable one year contract number.

 

I will say one thing though....a quick read of the available most recent announcements on Kuroda raises the possibility in my mind that the Sox may in fact have the best 1 year deal on the table for Kuroda right now and his agents might be shopping him around the available candidates looking for a little improvement. I think that might be as likely as anything else at this point since a number of likely suiters seem to have fallen away. However if it does end up being that he goes elsewhere for something like $8.5 for a one year deal, maybe a little less, then my opening comments in this post are more like what I am thinking.

 

It would have been unwise for the Red Sox to pay 8-10 million on a reliever when they still need to fill a spot in their rotation.

[jung]

It would have been unwise for the Red Sox to pay 8-10 million on a reliever when they still need to fill a spot in their rotation.

 

Yes but it is Kuroda, Jackson and Oswalt that have fostered all the stories of the Sox waiting for one or all of them to fall to some number and they are all starters. If they pass or have passed on Kuroda for $8.5M then I would say they are out of the running for Jackson and Oswalt as well and what SP they get will come by way of trade. Again, I do not believe any of the three are going to or were going to fall to the level that I think the Sox have been looking for and passing on Kuroda at $8.5M just about proves that.

[User Name]

How do you know they passed on Kuroda at 8.5 million? That's simply speculation.

[jung]

How do you know they passed on Kuroda at 8.5 million? That's simply speculation.

 

I repeat:

If they pass or have passed on Kuroda for $8.5M

[VA Sox Fan]

As ORS noted, I took your mentioning skepticism about the moneyball approach and the signing of cheap players as evidence that you saw the moneyball approach primarily as going for cheap acquisitions, particularly because there was no mention of a rebuilding process or the obvious likelihood that there will eventually be big signings.

 

Yes, there is sabermetric analysis inherent in every move that Theo makes. And yes, the Cubs will undoubtedly be doing an undervalued assets analysis throughout.

 

Trying to clear the field of their s***** players and contracts, or moving their better (not great) players for good prospects is just part of clearing the decks for a future run.

 

 

 

 

 

I appreciate you explaining this ORS. Post more.

 

My thoughts exactly. POST MORE ORS!

[User Name]

I repeat:

If they pass or have passed on Kuroda for $8.5M

 

Again, I do not believe any of the three are going to or were going to fall to the level that I think the Sox have been looking for and passing on Kuroda at $8.5M just about proves that.

 

Then this sentence is extremely confusing. The end seems like affirmation that the Sox actually passed on Kuroda at 8.5.

[jung]

Again, I do not believe any of the three are going to or were going to fall to the level that I think the Sox have been looking for and passing on Kuroda at $8.5M just about proves that.

 

If you want to nit pick at it we could likely go back to a number of both our posts and find places where we could have been a bit clearer. I could have written that passing on Kuroda at $8.5M would just about prove that and it might have been marginally clearer.

 

In fact I seem to recall that you chastised me once for misspelling a player's name but only one page later I found you guilty of exactly the same misspelling. I simply decided to ignore it. Some of this just gets silly after awhile.

[User Name]

Boy, you sure are sensitive today. I was looking for clarification, but apparently caught you in "one of those days".

 

Btw, i missed an H on Buchholz while quick-responding, which does not have a K or T in it.

[jung]

I do think we will know on Kurota soon, maybe even today if he is going to hold to his own timeline.

 

As I posted earlier a couple posts above the tone of the recent media clips suggests to me that there is at least at chance that the Sox have the best current deal (whatever it is) in front of Kurota with his agent doing some last minute shopping for something better. If not however I do think much becomes clearer with regard to any additional SP FA moves that the Sox might make.

[User Name]

It was very interesting reading on WEEI yesterday when the Kuroda rumor was posted that his signing immediately sent the Red Sox back into the MLB's "elite". That tells me that this team is seen as being a pitcher away from being one of the best in the Majors, and that the collection of talent is significant, contradicting some of the rhetoric you read around these parts.

[redsoxfan3]

It was very interesting reading on WEEI yesterday when the Kuroda rumor was posted that his signing immediately sent the Red Sox back into the MLB's "elite". That tells me that this team is seen as being a pitcher away from being one of the best in the Majors' date=' and that the collection of talent is significant, contradicting some of the rhetoric you read around these parts.[/quote']

 

I agree with you here. There are a lot of pessimistic fans. I choose to stay optimistic for different reasons, especially since the offseason is not even over. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I think we will be just fine in 2012 when it is all said and done.

[jung]

Anybody listen to the WEEI Pedro Martinez yesterday? Those "stars of the past" interviews tend to either be terrible or really interesting since the ex-player himself now either has a different perspective or provides us a view that he simply could not provide when he was an active player.

 

Anyway I would recommend the Pedro interview.

 

One question that was sitting right there to be asked, based on some of his comments was whether or not he thought more work would benefit pitchers in their desire to avoid arm injury ala' Nolan Ryan or whether a less Ryan-esk like approach made more sense to him. Based on Pedro's comments if the question was asked I think he would have favored Ryan's views on the topic. Hate it when a really interesting question is there to be asked and the interviewer opts to go off on some meaningless tangent.

 

It is on balance a very good interview though and worth a listen I think.