2011 Trade Deadline Thread

[Will617]

The years when your team is one of the top 2-3 teams in all of baseball is rare. Those are the years when you make the moves to put the team over the top. There is plenty of time to fix the future' date=' but only 2 more days to fix the present.[/quote']

 

I don't believe in this at all. I think that the effect of any acquisitions on winning postseason games is fairly small, unless you have a glaring hole (say, if Darnell McDonald were the best RF the Sox had). It makes a lot more sense to pick up a piece if you're on the bubble in terms of making the postseason (i.e. the entire AL Central), but Jimenez makes a small upgrade over Buchholz as the #3; he's only an impactful upgrade on the #4 pitching spot, which would be Lackey's, and which would be a spot that pitches once every series. I don't think that's worth losing two top prospects.

Of course, you could argue that Jimenez provides value down the road, but that's sort of meaningless; if the total value of Jimenez's production is greater than the expected total value of the prospects the Sox is giving up, you'd pull the trigger anyway.

I still want the Sox to pick up a pitcher like Bedard, because 1. It costs relatively little in comparison to Jimenez, and 2. I think pitching depth is important going forward.

[AtWork]

The Yankees’ interest in Jimenez appears to be waning, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. However, the Guardians are sending signals that their “untouchables” might be available in a deal for Jimenez, according to Stark.

 

Others believe the Guardians are a big threat to acquire Jimenez, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).

[BornToRun]

Not misleading at all. Its a fact: NO TEAM HAS WON THE ALCS WITH AN OVERALL TEAM ERA IN LESS THAN THE #4 POSITION IN THE LAST DECADE. That is not disputable. Neither is the fact that we are now at #9. Furthermore' date=' last I checked, Miller, Lackey, Wakefield, and Williams are all still performing for the team and are on the active roster.[/quote']

 

FACT: TYPING IN ALL CAPS JUST MAKES YOU LOOK A JACKASS! PLEASE REFRAIN FROM DOING IT! NO ONE IS TAKING YOU SERIOUSLY!

[yankees228]

Ugh, I hope Cashman knows what he's doing. Ubaldo, or a pitcher of similar abilities, seems almost necessary if the Yankees want to have a real shot at winning a World Series this year.

 

EDIT: In response to the quotes AW posted.

[SoxSport]

I've thought about it a little more. Here are our holes for the next few years, outside of the SP hole which is what this team is attempting to fill right now.

 

 

So basically, if we can pull the trigger on a deal with Middlebrooks + Ranaudo + Weiland, we would be replacing our biggest weakness (P) without mortgaging our future. Obviously young pitching is a premium, but the Sox just drafted Barnes and have some significant arms in the wings. Not only that, but the Red Sox would have a rotation of Beckett - Lester - Jimenez - Buchholz - Lackey through 2014 (including club options for Jimenez).

 

QUOTE]

 

The Red Sox actually have a problem with drafting so well--they have too many good players in the farm system and too few spots on the roster. They have a few players in the minors half the teams in baseball might have on their major league rosters.

Part of their problem is loyalty--they carry guys like Tek and Wake who are marginally useful, and tie up roster spots. And then there are the free agents--you win some and you lose some.

 

Trading is healthy. They need to do another AdGon type deal. maybe for a good pitcher or a SS like Hanley Ramirez. Not a peep about him--makes you wonder.

[Will617]

3B - Youk is under contract through 2013, and will surely be re upped once his contract expires. Once it expires, though, he may be moved into a DH role. Best replacement at 3B is Middlebrooks, Cecchini, and Vitek, all of which are top 20 prospects in our organization. This makes Middlebrooks at least reasonably expendible.

 

Kolbrin Vitek, the Sox 2010 first rounder, draws comparisons to Michael Young, and could be up in the MLB by late, 2013, which would be about the same time you would want to filter in a new 3B for Youkilis. Outside of that, you've got your entire team locked up for years with unbelievable talent, so a trade involving some of the better prospects wouldn't necessarily hurt the club too bad.

 

Orgazational depth is important, especially when a lot of the 3B prospects are quite a ways out of contributing that we're not sure what they'll develop into. For example, what if the Giants had traded Bumgarner (looking like a decent pitcher) for Freddy Sanchez, instead of Tim Alderson? Similarly, a couple years ago it looked like we had great depth in the OF with Ellsbury, Kalish, Reddick, and Westmoreland, but Westmoreland had brain surgery and Reddick fell off the map. What if the Sox trade Middlebrooks, Cecchini breaks an arm, Vitek doesn't pan out, and Youkilis doesn't age too well?

I would not mind moving a pitcher like Weiland, but I'd be concerned about moving someone like Ranaudo, simply because his upside is so much higher and the Sox don't have a lot of need for prospects that project to be middle-of-the-rotation types.

[AtWork]

Ugh' date=' I hope Cashman knows what he's doing. Ubaldo, or a pitcher of similar abilities, seems almost necessary if the Yankees want to have a real shot at winning a World Series this year.[/quote']

 

I can understand why he wouldn't want to trade Montero for a pitcher with question marks like Jiminez. Perhaps he could include him in a deal for Wandy Rodriguez?

[a700hitter]

Yeah, we're all on welfare, except for Curt Schilling, who's paying for it with his tax cuts.

Just so you know, tax rates have not been cut since 2001.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not misleading at all. Its a fact: NO TEAM HAS WON THE ALCS WITH AN OVERALL TEAM ERA IN LESS THAN THE #4 POSITION IN THE LAST DECADE. That is not disputable. Neither is the fact that we are now at #9. Furthermore' date=' last I checked, Miller, Lackey, Wakefield, and Williams are all still performing for the team and are on the active roster.[/quote']

 

This is a horrendous approach to the stats that you put up. A better way to look at it would be to compare the average run production of the offense to the pitching staff ERA. For example (in order of Team, Staff ERA, Runs per Game, Difference):

 

2010: Rangers; 3.93 ERA, 4.85 RpG, 0.92 run differential

2009: Yankees; 4.26/5.65/1.39

2008: Rays; 3.82/4.78/0.96

2007: Sox; 3.87/5.35/1.48

2006: Tigers; 3.84/5.07/1.23

 

And your 2011 Red Sox: 3.92/5.53/1.61

 

Well then, my dear God, it looks like the 2011 Red Sox have the best differential between the offensive production and staff ERA out of ANY of the past 5 ALCS champions.

 

Weird!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Orgazational depth is important, especially when a lot of the 3B prospects are quite a ways out of contributing that we're not sure what they'll develop into. For example, what if the Giants had traded Bumgarner (looking like a decent pitcher) for Freddy Sanchez, instead of Tim Alderson? Similarly, a couple years ago it looked like we had great depth in the OF with Ellsbury, Kalish, Reddick, and Westmoreland, but Westmoreland had brain surgery and Reddick fell off the map. What if the Sox trade Middlebrooks, Cecchini breaks an arm, Vitek doesn't pan out, and Youkilis doesn't age too well?

I would not mind moving a pitcher like Weiland, but I'd be concerned about moving someone like Ranaudo, simply because his upside is so much higher and the Sox don't have a lot of need for prospects that project to be middle-of-the-rotation types.

 

That's where free agency and other trades come in. Obviously you don't want to fill all of your holes with free agents, but if you get into a bad spot where you trade a guy like Middlebrooks and then your back ups don't pan out, you hit the market.

[SoxSport]

I still want the Sox to pick up a pitcher like Bedard' date=' because 1. It costs relatively little in comparison to Jimenez, and 2. I think pitching depth is important going forward.[/quote']

 

The Yankee interest in Jiminez wanes--maybe because the Red Sox interest is in Bedard?

Meaning no interest in Jiminez? In which case the Yankees are now interested in Bedard?

 

Who the hell knows? It's all speculation, anyways.

[a700hitter]

I don't believe in this at all. I think that the effect of any acquisitions on winning postseason games is fairly small' date=' unless you have a glaring hole (say, if Darnell McDonald were the best RF the Sox had). [/quote']

In the end the whole thing can get decided by one or two games. You have to give the team the best chance to win those games.

 

I have seen thousands of promising prospects throughout 45 years and hundreds of star players, but only two World Championships.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Screw it. I'm putting Jimenez on my MLB The Show 2011 team.

 

Last November, I put Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford on my MLB The Show 2010 game, and that panned out.

[yankees228]

I can understand why he wouldn't want to trade Montero for a pitcher with question marks like Jiminez. Perhaps he could include him in a deal for Wandy Rodriguez?

 

I don't think it's worth giving him up for Wandy. I agree that Ubaldo has a question mark (his velo drop), but his numbers put him on the list of the best pitchers in baseball (as E1 pointed out). And Ubaldo is not just a rental, he's likely to be very good in the years to come.

[FredLynn]

Just because you cheery-picked a certain fact doesn't mean it's now a rule to make the postseason. Your argument is so easily explained by other factors - Teams with s***** ERAs don't make the postseason, in the postseason good teams lose all the time, etc., that it isn't even worth mentioning as an argument for acquiring better pitching.

Also, last I checked the season's still not over, and we're still missing Lester and Buchholz but could reasonably expect for them to show up by the end of it.

 

Last I checked Lester is pitching again.

You can argue that the facts are not relevant to the case, like the fact that no team has won a WS with Adrian Gonzalez on the team. I think that the saying, "Pitching and defense wins rings" has merit, and that the fact I presented is proof of sorts that that saying is true.

[BornToRun]

Screw it. I'm putting Jimenez on my MLB The Show 2011 team.

 

Last November, I put Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford on my MLB The Show 2010 game, and that panned out.

 

Do me a favor and trade for King Felix and Reyes too.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Do me a favor and trade for King Felix and Reyes too.

 

Wait. You think I started the season without them??

[BornToRun]

Last I checked Lester is pitching again.

You can argue that the facts are not relevant to the case, like the fact that no team has won a WS with Adrian Gonzalez on the team. I think that the saying, "Pitching and defense wins rings" has merit, and that the fact I presented is proof of sorts that that saying is true.

 

The last time we won, we did it with all three facets of the game. This year, our offense is so powerful that Chuck Norris cowers in fear of it, we have 3 bonafide aces with the potential to add a 4th and our bullpen is one of the best there is, and our defense ranks up among the best in baseball. Things are looking pretty damn good in Beantown.

[yankees228]

Just so you know' date=' tax rates have not been cut since 2001.[/quote']

 

This isn't true on a couple different levels.

[BornToRun]

Wait. You think I started the season without them??

 

You are a very intelligent man.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Last I checked Lester is pitching again.

You can argue that the facts are not relevant to the case, like the fact that no team has won a WS with Adrian Gonzalez on the team. I think that the saying, "Pitching and defense wins rings" has merit, and that the fact I presented is proof of sorts that that saying is true.

 

Your point is mooted by the fact that the Red Sox offense is better than any offense that has won the ALCS with a corresponding pitching staff having a sub-4.00 ERA.

[FredLynn]

This is a horrendous approach to the stats that you put up. A better way to look at it would be to compare the average run production of the offense to the pitching staff ERA. For example (in order of Team, Staff ERA, Runs per Game, Difference):

 

2010: Rangers; 3.93 ERA, 4.85 RpG, 0.92 run differential

2009: Yankees; 4.26/5.65/1.39

2008: Rays; 3.82/4.78/0.96

2007: Sox; 3.87/5.35/1.48

2006: Tigers; 3.84/5.07/1.23

 

And your 2011 Red Sox: 3.92/5.53/1.61

 

Well then, my dear God, it looks like the 2011 Red Sox have the best differential between the offensive production and staff ERA out of ANY of the past 5 ALCS champions.

 

Weird!

 

You are talking about bashing your way into the playoffs with a mediocre pitching staff. That can and does happen. I never said that you cannot bash your way into the playoffs. I DID say that once you are there, pitching is much more important. We WILL bash our way into the postseason this year; and I think we will make a quick exit if we do not significantly upgrade at BOTH SP and in the PEN. Just can't see us doing it with Miller, Wakefield, Lackey, and Williams on the roster.

[AtWork]

This is a horrendous approach to the stats that you put up. A better way to look at it would be to compare the average run production of the offense to the pitching staff ERA. For example (in order of Team, Staff ERA, Runs per Game, Difference):

 

2010: Rangers; 3.93 ERA, 4.85 RpG, 0.92 run differential

2009: Yankees; 4.26/5.65/1.39

2008: Rays; 3.82/4.78/0.96

2007: Sox; 3.87/5.35/1.48

2006: Tigers; 3.84/5.07/1.23

 

And your 2011 Red Sox: 3.92/5.53/1.61

 

Well then, my dear God, it looks like the 2011 Red Sox have the best differential between the offensive production and staff ERA out of ANY of the past 5 ALCS champions.

 

Weird!

 

That is a historically good run differential.

[Palodios]

Last I checked Lester is pitching again.

You can argue that the facts are not relevant to the case, like the fact that no team has won a WS with Adrian Gonzalez on the team. I think that the saying, "Pitching and defense wins rings" has merit, and that the fact I presented is proof of sorts that that saying is true.

 

The problem is that you aren't looking at the big picture. This team has elite defense. It has an elite bullpen. It has three guys who will be top 5 Cy Young vote getters in either 2010 or 2011. Three guys who are seriously good pitchers, with ace status. The overall team ERA means nothing if it include Miller's 6.00 ERA, Wakefield's 5.00 ERA and Lackey's 7.00 ERA.

 

That being said, get Ubaldo.

[FredLynn]

The last time we won' date=' we did it with all three facets of the game. This year, our offense is so powerful that Chuck Norris cowers in fear of it, we have 3 bonafide aces with the potential to add a 4th and our bullpen is one of the best there is, and our defense ranks up among the best in baseball. Things are looking pretty damn good in Beantown.[/quote']

 

Our pitching staff is mediocre. As it stands right now we are ranked #9 of the 14 AL teams. Our SP is mediocre, comprised of two aces and three bums, and our bullpen is mediocre as well, what with Morales and Williams there-and potentially Jenks when he returns.

[FredLynn]

The problem is that you aren't looking at the big picture. This team has elite defense. It has an elite bullpen. It has three guys who will be top 5 Cy Young vote getters in either 2010 or 2011. Three guys who are seriously good pitchers, with ace status. The overall team ERA means nothing if it include Miller's 6.00 ERA, Wakefield's 5.00 ERA and Lackey's 7.00 ERA.

 

That being said, get Ubaldo.

 

The problem is that THOSE GUYS ARE STILL ON THE ROSTER! If we can lose at least one of them and upgrade, I think we DO have a shot at a ring.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You are talking about bashing your way into the playoffs with a mediocre pitching staff. That can and does happen. I never said that you cannot bash your way into the playoffs. I DID say that once you are there' date=' pitching is much more important. We WILL bash our way into the postseason this year; and I think we will make a quick exit if we do not significantly upgrade at BOTH SP and in the PEN. Just can't see us doing it with Miller, Wakefield, Lackey, and Williams on the roster.[/quote']

 

But that's a ridiculous point because once you get to the post season, you don't have Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield, or Kyle Weiland pitching, and you really don't even have Lackey pitching. What you have instead is Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz with a bullpen of Aceves, Albers, Bard, Morales and Papelbon. Those 7 pitchers will almost exclusively be used in the postseason.

 

Beckett/Lester/Buchholz = 2.87 ERA

 

Albers/Aceves/Bard/Papelbon/Morales = 2.62 ERA

 

Those 8 pitchers combine for a 2.78 ERA, and those are the pitchers that we're going to see in the postseason.

[BornToRun]

Our pitching staff is mediocre. As it stands right now we are ranked #9 of the 14 AL teams. Our SP is mediocre' date=' comprised of two aces and three bums, and our bullpen is mediocre as well, what with Morales and Williams there-and potentially Jenks when he returns.[/quote']

 

Beckett's Jesus, Lester's Don Johnson, Buchholz will be Chuck Norris upon return, Lackey has been pretty damn good recently, and the 5 spot isn't important in the playoffs. Our bullpen is fantastic, Wheeler, Ace, Pap, Bard, and Albers are amazing this year.

 

Try again there buddy.

[Palodios]

The problem is that THOSE GUYS ARE STILL ON THE ROSTER! If we can lose at least one of them and upgrade' date=' I think we DO have a shot at a ring.[/quote']

 

That is not your argument. You're saying that this team can't win with 5th or above for a pitching staff. Ubaldo Jimeniz won't take this team from 9th in ERA to 4th in ERA in 1/3rd of a season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The problem is that THOSE GUYS ARE STILL ON THE ROSTER! If we can lose at least one of them and upgrade' date=' I think we DO have a shot at a ring.[/quote']

 

Nobody is arguing that we don't need more pitching. We all agree that we need more pitching. The only thing that is being disagreed upon is that we don't have to be in the top 4 of the AL in pitching staff ERA to win the WS.