Yankees deal for Vazquez

[riverside sluggers]

It also is messing with the kid. Even tho I think Joba is an ass... he deserves by now to be assured of what role he has going forward, not "oh around august (or sooner), we might need you to go back to the pen or rotation"

[Imperial59]

By the way, if you look at Vazquez' numbers from age 24 on, his AL/NL splits are as follows:

 

NL: 3.57 ERA, 1.162 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 1.9 BB/9, 8.5 SO/9, 4.4 SO/BB

AL: 4.52 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.1 SO/9, 3.29 SO/BB

 

I'd say that shows a major difference in his ability to pitch in the NL vs. his ability to pitch in the AL. It's not really fair to compare his AL/NL stats when his NL stats include him pitching at ages 21, 22 and 23 and his AL stats all include years in which he was in his prime (age 27, 29, 30 and 31).

[Imperial59]

I said "they could". I'm pretty sure they'd prefer to do that rather than put Mitre out there. Especially if the guys like Melancon and Robertson excel in the bullpen.

 

If they'd rather stretch out Hughes and take him out of the bullpen than use Mitre as a member of the rotation, then why didn't they do it last year?

 

Fact is, you can't just take Hughes out of the bullpen and pluck him right into the rotation when a pitcher goes down. You have to stretch him out first and then hope he does better than his 5+ ERA, 1.40+ WHIP performance as a starter so far.

[diony]

If they'd rather stretch out Hughes and take him out of the bullpen than use Mitre as a member of the rotation, then why didn't they do it last year?

 

Because they needed someone for 8th inning role. Hughes was doing an awesome job there.

[Dipre]

Because they needed someone for 8th inning role. Hughes was doing an awesome job there.

 

And what better options than Hughes/Chamberlain do the Yankees have for the 8th inning role next year?

[diony]

I mentioned them two posts ago, if you didn't read. And they don't have to do better, just get the job done.

[Dipre]

So you're going to take out arguably the best setup man in the league last year, and your answer for it is going to be "Let's see if Robertson and Melancon get the job done."

 

I read, it simply didn't make sense.

[diony]

If they need a starter, they could stretch Hughes and place him in the rotation. They could be more inclined to do it, if the rest of the pen, Marte, Robertson, Aceves, Gaudin, Melancon and the rest, are doing a great job. Do you understand that? Jesus...

 

Remember 08, when they removed Joba from the pen to fill a rotation spot. They did it because the bullpen was doing great back then, it's exactly the same situation.

 

Hopefully, they'll stretch him out more slowly this time, and he won't go down with an injury. Hughes has an advantage because he has no history of arm related injuries.

[Dipre]

There's simply no need to do that if they have decent options waiting to take a rotation spot.It doesn't make sense to mess with both the bullpen and the pitcher just because Mitre or Gaudin aren't above average options.

 

Besides, stretching a pitcher out takes time, so if the reason for the call-up is an injury (and it probably will be) the pitcher who's putting up the best numbers and is more readily available to address the need will be the one getting called up. Under that scenario, whoever of Hughes/Joba is on the bullpen will not be the choice to address the need.

[yankees228]

By the way, if you look at Vazquez' numbers from age 24 on, his AL/NL splits are as follows:

 

NL: 3.57 ERA, 1.162 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 1.9 BB/9, 8.5 SO/9, 4.4 SO/BB

AL: 4.52 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.1 SO/9, 3.29 SO/BB

 

I'd say that shows a major difference in his ability to pitch in the NL vs. his ability to pitch in the AL. It's not really fair to compare his AL/NL stats when his NL stats include him pitching at ages 21, 22 and 23 and his AL stats all include years in which he was in his prime (age 27, 29, 30 and 31).

 

As many of you guys have talked about, he's always been a guy with great stuff that just, for whatever reason, hasn't been able to put it together. Maybe last year was his breakthrough season, and he's just figured out how to be a smarter pitcher. I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but considering what he did last year, it's an intriguing possibility.

[Keeper]

It's possible. Randy Johnson's best years came after he turned 30. I still think Vazquez is going to have nightmares pitching at NYS, but you never know.

[Dipre]

As many of you guys have talked about' date=' he's always been a guy with great stuff that just, for whatever reason, hasn't been able to put it together. Maybe last year was his breakthrough season, and he's just figured out how to be a smarter pitcher. I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but considering what he did last year, it's an intriguing possibility.[/quote']

 

Similar velocity, similar pitch selection, similar K/GB/FB rate. He had a career-low homers allowed at Turner Field,one of the worst parks for XBH in the Majors according to both Park Factor and Hit Tracker, but he's moving to Yankee stadium.

 

He had a career year at a ballpark that hides his main weakness, but is now going to a ballpark that exposes it. He's a very good bet to regress, maybe not to '06 levels, but expecting him to maintain his "new found success" is wishful thinking at best, man.

 

He's a good acquisition, but the ballpark and division won't help him, so expect an ERA above four, but lots of IP and lots of K's.

[yankees228]

Similar velocity, similar pitch selection, similar K/GB/FB rate. He had a career-low homers allowed at Turner Field,one of the worst parks for XBH in the Majors according to both Park Factor and Hit Tracker, but he's moving to Yankee stadium.

 

He had a career year at a ballpark that hides his main weakness, but is now going to a ballpark that exposes it. He's a very good bet to regress, maybe not to '06 levels, but expecting him to maintain his "new found success" is wishful thinking at best, man.

 

He's a good acquisition, but the ballpark and division won't help him, so expect an ERA above four, but lots of IP and lots of K's.

 

Never said he was going to maintain last years success, or at least that isn't what I meant to imply. I think it's possible that he can keep his ERA below 4.

[Dipre]

Never said he was going to maintain last years success' date=' or at least that isn't what I meant to imply. I think it's possible that he can keep his ERA below 4.[/quote']

 

I highly doubt it. But remember, the Yankees weren't looking for ERA when they took on Vasquez, they were looking for exactly what they're going to get from him: Lots of innings pitched.

 

It's simply too easy to be skeptical when you see a guy put up monster numbers in the NL coming from the AL and have career numbers in a bunch of statistical categories.

 

In Vasquez' case:

 

WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9 (matched), SO/BB, ERA+, Runs Allowed, Earned Runs allowed.

 

Color me skeptical.

 

You can say i'm biased if you want, and you're fully entitled to. But he improved on every category that is bound to get worse when switching leagues, and specially to the AL East.

 

I say he puts up an ERA comfortably above four, but maintains his K's and Innings Pitched.

[redsoxrevenge]

 

I say he puts up an ERA comfortably above four, but maintains his K's and Innings Pitched.

 

If this happens, I'll bet his ERA doesn't rise above 4.00.

 

His K's will drop, because he won't get to throw to the pitcher.

[Imperial59]

If they need a starter' date=' [b']they could[/b] stretch Hughes and place him in the rotation. They could be more inclined to do it, if the rest of the pen, Marte, Robertson, Aceves, Gaudin, Melancon and the rest, are doing a great job. Do you understand that? Jesus...

 

Remember 08, when they removed Joba from the pen to fill a rotation spot. They did it because the bullpen was doing great back then, it's exactly the same situation.

 

Hopefully, they'll stretch him out more slowly this time, and he won't go down with an injury. Hughes has an advantage because he has no history of arm related injuries.

 

There are a variety of issues that moving Hughes to the rotation would create, that moving Wakefield to the rotation would not create.

 

1. You're losing your only reliable set up guy (assuming he repeats his success last year and stays healthy which he hasn't done very well over his career so far).

2. He's never pitched more than 86 innings in a season. If he was to start, he'd probably be on an innings limit around 115 for the entire season.

[Imperial59]

As many of you guys have talked about' date=' he's always been a guy with great stuff that just, for whatever reason, hasn't been able to put it together. Maybe last year was his breakthrough season, and he's just figured out how to be a smarter pitcher. I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but considering what he did last year, it's an intriguing possibility.[/quote']

 

And for a guy with great stuff, he's always given up a lot of hits and home runs. It's possible that he's figured something out, but Yankees fans said the same thing when he had the best year of his career at the time in 2003, and look how that turned out for them.

[Dipre]

If this happens, I'll bet his ERA doesn't rise above 4.00.

 

His K's will drop, because he won't get to throw to the pitcher.

 

During his four years in the AL, he averaged 206 IP and 186 K's.

 

There's no reason for him not to average his usual IP while reaching the 200 K plateau, which he has already reached twice in four years in the AL.

 

The reason his ERA will rise above four is because a 23 LD% with a .297 BABIP is not sustainable, add to that the Yankee stadium factor, and a regression on most of his peripherals due to the league change.

[diony]

There are a variety of issues that moving Hughes to the rotation would create, that moving Wakefield to the rotation would not create.

 

1. You're losing your only reliable set up guy (assuming he repeats his success last year and stays healthy which he hasn't done very well over his career so far).

2. He's never pitched more than 86 innings in a season. If he was to start, he'd probably be on an innings limit around 115 for the entire season.

 

I'm not comparing Hughes to Wakefield.

 

1. Agree, but they think he could develop into a reliable MLB starter, and that's more valuable than a reliever.

 

2. 146 IP in 2006, 105 IP last year. Minor league innings also count. Around 150 IPs would be his limit.

[jacksonianmarch]

Regardless, we are in a pretty good predicament. Two stud kids, both with electric arms. One will be the #5 starter. The other will be the prime setup man. If I had to guess, we're gonna give Joba one more yr. He is stretched out and he was really good for 3-4 months before he fell apart. Gotta give him one more shot. The added benefit is....

 

If Joba shows he can be a 180IP starter and be solid, then we could go for the big strike. Let Pettitte and Vazquez go, offer arbitration, get the two picks, then sign Cliff Lee. Joba would slide into the #4 hole and we could try and stretch out Hughes. If Joba cannot get it going or is as inconsistent as he was last yr, then I think the Joba project shifts to the pen. Regardless, Hughes will be in the rotation in 2011, IMO. Whether Joba is there or not is yet to be determined

[Lester82]

If Joba shows he can be a 180IP starter and be solid, then we could go for the big strike. Let Pettitte and Vazquez go, offer arbitration, get the two picks, then sign Cliff Lee.

 

I know you're a Yankee fan, but not everyone will sign with the Yankees.

 

And how many more years is it till "the two young studs" of Jober and Hughes are ready to take the leap and be starters consistently already? This is more a crucial issue with Joba. Your team hasn't developed a top-flight starter since Andy Pettitte. Signing free agent starters in their 30's (Lee) doesn't work out every year, the Yankees might actually have to you know, develop one of their guys. They just seem to be royally screwing up the Chamberlin thing.

[Imperial59]

Regardless' date=' we are in a pretty good predicament. Two stud kids, both with electric arms. One will be the #5 starter. The other will be the prime setup man. If I had to guess, we're gonna give Joba one more yr. He is stretched out and he was really good for 3-4 months before he fell apart. Gotta give him one more shot.[/quote']

 

Oh, Jacko...

 

How was Chamberlain "really good" in his first half?

 

1.56 WHIP, 9.81 H/9, 1.21 HR/9, 4.25 BB/9, 7.89 K/9

 

The fact is that neither one of your "stud kids" has proven that they're capable of being a league average starter. If that kind of a line makes a young pitcher a stud, then Buchholz must be the next Pedro Martinez with the kind of year he had in 2009.

[Dipre]

How dare you disparage the next Roy Halladay and the next Roger Clemens?

 

They're both ready to claim rotation spots next year and dominate, but the Yankees want to give the rest of the league a fighting chance.

[jacksonianmarch]

Oh, Jacko...

 

How was Chamberlain "really good" in his first half?

 

1.56 WHIP, 9.81 H/9, 1.21 HR/9, 4.25 BB/9, 7.89 K/9

 

The fact is that neither one of your "stud kids" has proven that they're capable of being a league average starter. If that kind of a line makes a young pitcher a stud, then Buchholz must be the next Pedro Martinez with the kind of year he had in 2009.

 

I said through the first 4 months. 111.2IP 105H 44ER 50BB 97K. 1.39WHIP, 7.8K/9IP, 3.54ERA. For the first full yr of a 24 yr old starting pitcher, you would call that really good. At least I would. Buch was "really good" for his debut too. Compared to the league, its slightly above average, but its something to build upon.

[Dipre]

Bucholz was average but showed tons of encouraging signs. Chamberlain did just the opposite. In fact, if i'm the Yankees, i take the gamble with Hughes in the rotation, he can maintain his stuff better from game to game and doesn't suffer from so much inconsistency.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the above post is revisionist at best and complete homerism at its worst. Chamberlain and Buchholz showed tons of potential. Just so happens that Chamberlain put in a lot more innings and faded towards the end. Buch started slow, but got stronger as the yr went on. Neither were incredibly consistent, but were completely lights out when they were one.

[Imperial59]

I think the above post is revisionist at best and complete homerism at its worst. Chamberlain and Buchholz showed tons of potential. Just so happens that Chamberlain put in a lot more innings and faded towards the end. Buch started slow' date=' but got stronger as the yr went on. Neither were incredibly consistent, but were completely lights out when they were one.[/quote']

 

Not nearly as revisionist as claiming Chamberlain was great in the first half. I think it's fair to say that both were inconsistent last year. And both had poor peripherals and a high FIP. But if you compare how the two did last year, Buchholz was clearly the better pitcher in virtually every category (ERA, ERA+, WHIP, H/9, BB/9, K/BB, FIP).

 

So I think it's homerish... I mean humorous that you would bring up Buchholz when questioning the Red Sox rotation depth and durability, then turn around and call Chamberlain a "young stud" who puts the Yankees in a "good predicament".

 

I know objectivity isn't really your thing, but could you at least pretend to have some?

[Imperial59]

Just so happens that Chamberlain put in a lot more innings and faded towards the end.

 

This is about as true as you claiming that Burnett's injuries were all related to his elbow. Chamberlain's first half peripherals were actually worse than his second half ones. He pitched poorly even when he wasn't tired, his ERA just didn't catch up until the second half.

[jacksonianmarch]

Imperial, you dont like to read, do you? You remind me of Dutchy, actually, I wouldnt be surprised if you were.

 

Regardless....

 

I never denied that Buchholz wasnt a stud. He is. He had himself an inconsistent but promising 91IP in the majors. Joba was inconsistent, but promising as well. He had a better 111IP stint through the end of July, then regressed big time in August when they started futzing with his role.

 

Now, just to help you since your disability makes you incapable of looking up prior posts....I said that a good rotation needs 3 innings eaters. The sox have 3 now with Lackey, assuming he is healthier than he was last season. And the Yankees now have 4. I have said all along that Buchholz and Joba and Hughes are ???s coming into 2010 out of the rotation, because neither put up strong, full seasons out of the rotation. Are you following? SO, where exactly have I questioned their depth overall? In comparison to NY's rotation, the sox dont have enough depth since NY has 4 guys who approached 200 innings pitched last yr. But still, they have enough length out of their first 3 to make their rotation a strength no matter what happens in the last 2 spots.

 

Regardless, I cannot say this enough. Joba, Hughes, and Buchholz all had incredibly promising seasons last yr. All 3 had periods on inconsistency. All 3 had flashes of dominance. And none were completely dominant for sustained periods of time out of the rotation. Counting on them is not a smart thing to do. Now, with the acquisitions of Lackey for Boston, and the resigning of Pettitte and the deal for Vazquez, neither team is truly relying on them.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is about as true as you claiming that Burnett's injuries were all related to his elbow. Chamberlain's first half peripherals were actually worse than his second half ones. He pitched poorly even when he wasn't tired' date=' his ERA just didn't catch up until the second half.[/quote']

 

I went through the end of July. August was when he fell off a cliff, once they started monkeying around with his role.