...and whoever's playing the Yankees - 2008 Game Thread

[CrespoBlows]

Suzuki with another DP.

[a700hitter]

It's forfeit time. The A's have brought in Alan Embree. Good night.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

He blew the save and scummed a win out of it. 0-2 in save opportunities, lucky to come out 1-1. More often than not, when your closer gets a decision, it means he failed at his job.

 

FAIL

 

Mo hasn't blown a save yet this year

[YAZMAN]

Mo hasn't blown a save yet this year

 

He flat out didn't get the job done, but that's OK because he has you and Jacko to sugar coat his suck.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

He flat out didn't get the job done' date=' but that's OK because he has you and Jacko to sugar coat his suck.[/quote']

 

...and here comes the name calling. Look, there are plenty of legitimate reasons to bang on the Yanks. There's no need to fudge stats and attack the one guy who's been doing his job.

[YAZMAN]

...and here comes the name calling. Look' date=' there are plenty of legitimate reasons to bang on the Yanks. There's no need to fudge stats and attack the one guy who's been doing his job.[/quote']

 

Fudge what stats? He came in twice in a matter of days in the 9th with the game on the line and gave up dongs. So if he's signed a new contract as a whiplash test dummy, yes, in fact, he's doing his job.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Fudge what stats? He came in twice in a matter of days in the 9th with the game on the line and gave up dongs.

 

Or, more specifically, twice in three consecutive games he yielded a home run in his single inning pitched that gave the hapless Royals the lead in the ninth inning.

[msubulldogs21]

Oakland leading NYY 6-1 in the 4th.

 

Rasner has been getting ROCKED.

[TheKilo]

Rasner, mean; mean, Rasner.

 

It's nice for you two to finally meet.

[a700hitter]

Posada has nothing left in his arm. Teams can run on him at will.

[TheKilo]

I hate the NL. Hate hate hate.

[a700hitter]

Posada lobs another throw to 2nd.

[a700hitter]

I can'y believe that that bag of garbage Chacon has held the Yankees to 1 run after 6 innings.

[a700hitter]

Bourn singles. He'll be off to the races.

[a700hitter]

Bourn with a terrible jump going to 3rd. Posada can throw 90 feet, but not with any zip.

[a700hitter]

Still no victory for Joba as a starter. He only gave up one run in 6 innings but he walked 4, gave up 6 hits and struck out only 2. I'm not blown away.

[jacksonianmarch]

3 of the walks were in one inning, 1 intentional. Not one ball was hit hard. I was more impressed with Joba's sinker today. He was pitching to contact early on and it left him in for 6 innings rather than having him out after 5. Word is Wang and Joba are working on the 2 seamer. It didnt have Wang's bite, but he was throwing it 93mph

[a700hitter]

Gonzalez playing 2B tonight. Maybe Girardi has finally gotten fed up with Cano.

[a700hitter]

Moose is going for his 10th win. He has been much better than I had expected. I didn't think he had anything left.

[VA Sox Fan]

Moose is going for his 10th win. He has been much better than I had expected. I didn't think he had anything left.

 

Much better than I expected too....dammit....

[a700hitter]

Why did they bring in Duseldorf in the 7th? Moose had only thrown 87 pitches.

[jacksonianmarch]

Mussina after 6 innings is a problem. Ohlendorf at any inning is a problem. Quite a conundrum. I think Ohlie needs a dose of the minors. He got ruined by Girardi in April and May. He needs a confidence builder.

[ORS]

When are you going to accept that Dorf on Baseball just might not be that good? Blaming the manager now because he sucks? Ridiculous. Blame the manager for using him in regards to winning / losing a ballgame. Don't blame the manager for him being, you know, not good and all.

[jacksonianmarch]

Predictable. Girardi abused the kid early on. 20 innings in April. That is a 120IP pace for a kid who just converted to relief mid season last yr. He also was being used as our long man and setup man for some reason when we wanted to rest Joba. Regardless, he is a kid with a hard fastball and a plus slider. He was abused early on and it showed. Now I think his confidence is broken. Just like hansen, the stuff is too good to write him off as nothing. I'd ship him to Scranton for the forseeable future and see what Robertson can do. Funny thing is, while Ohlendorf was being abused, Veras and Ramirez were busy carving a nice niche out of our pen.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Ohlendorf at any inning is a problem. Quite a conundrum. I think Ohlie needs a dose of the minors. He got ruined by Girardi in April and May. He needs a confidence builder.

 

Predictable. Girardi abused the kid early on. 20 innings in April. That is a 120IP pace for a kid who just converted to relief mid season last yr. He also was being used as our long man and setup man for some reason when we wanted to rest Joba. Regardless, he is a kid with a hard fastball and a plus slider. He was abused early on and it showed. Now I think his confidence is broken. Just like hansen, the stuff is too good to write him off as nothing. I'd ship him to Scranton for the forseeable future and see what Robertson can do. Funny thing is, while Ohlendorf was being abused, Veras and Ramirez were busy carving a nice niche out of our pen.

 

Ross Ohlendorf, 2008 PECOTA Weighted Mean Projection: 5.95 ERA, 63 IP

Ross Ohlendorf, actual mid-season 2008 stats: 5.71 ERA, 34.7 IP

 

Ohlendorf has been used very slightly more than projected. His ERA is very slightly less than projected. Exactly how has he been ruined by Girardi?

 

See, from here it looks more as if Ohlendorf wasn't expected to be very good and he's roughly matched expectations. :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

PECOTA is a putrid projection tool as are most tools projecting what a rookie pitcher will do. I'd look at stuff more than your tidy little cpu projections. The fact that he is new to relieving makes PECOTA obsolete in that sense since he doesnt have a track record to reliably follow.

[ORS]

Use your head, Jacko. What do most prospects do first when they hit the bigs? They get broken into the league in relief roles. Even the really good ones. There's 30 years of data where this transition has been made along the lines with what Dorf is going through. I can understand if you just have a hard time accepting PECOTA, but the reason you gave shows how little thought goes into your disagreement.

[jacksonianmarch]

I understand that you can try to predict an adjustment period, but this one doesnt hold water. You have a guy who was just moved to the pen last july or so in the minors and now, you will have a pre-season ranking predicting how he will do in a full season at a higher level at the new role? Also, the idea of PECOTA and any other ranking system is based upon players prior performance and cannot accurately detail a player finally breaking out. As such, it cannot predict a player's performance at a new role when it doesnt have the data to make the prediction. It is a farse.

[Jayhawk Bill]

PECOTA is a putrid projection tool as are most tools projecting what a rookie pitcher will do. The fact that he is new to relieving makes PECOTA obsolete in that sense since he doesnt have a track record to reliably follow.

 

You clearly don't know what you're talking about.

 

Ohlendorf started fewer than half of his professional games in calendar year 2007, and he was originally projected to serve as a relief pitcher/spot starter by PECOTA based upon the actual use pattern of pitchers with similar records (and phenotypes) at the same age. BP then adjusted their projections based upon actual final depth charts (last updated in April), projecting 60 relief IP, zero games started, and the same 5.95 ERA.

 

PECOTA's MLE system was overhauled 2-3 years ago. It used to be their weakest area, but they're doing much better regarding minor league translations and projections in the past two seasons, IIRC. I know that PECOTA is ranked at or near the top of all systems each year.

 

***

 

But you criticize PECOTA as "putrid" and a "farse." Do you personally have a better record of projections? See, Jacko, when I thread-mine your past prognostications, your record appears worse than Nate Silver's PECOTA. If that's true, and PECOTA is "putrid," what adjective properly describes your projections? :dunno:

[TheKilo]

YAARRRRGGHHHH I LOOK AT STUFF STATS ARE BAD