Are the Sox good enough for 2007?

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/11/03/cost_may_be_out_of_their_range/

 

Future stars

The 2007 "Bill James Handbook," which is authored by Baseball Info Solutions and was originally conceived by the Sox' senior baseball operations adviser, has its projections for next season.

 

"It is what it is; we are not soothsayers or mystics with crystal balls; we're just a bunch of hairy accountants with spreadsheets," James writes. "Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong, and sometimes we're sorry we brought up the subject."

 

Disclaimers aside, James and Co. predict big years again for David Ortiz (.285, 47 home runs, 138 RBIs) and Manny Ramírez (.305, 37, 118) and a comeback season for Jason Varitek (.259, 17, 69). Other projections include Coco Crisp (.284, .337 OBP), Kevin Youkilis (.283, 14, 77), Wily Mo Peña (.277, 23, 68) and Lowell (.273, 18, 77).

 

James doesn't do pitching projections, but Baseball Info Solutions does. If they're right, it's understandable why the Sox are in the market for pitching. Josh Beckett is projected as a modest 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA, Curt Schilling 12-8 with a 3.50 ERA, and Tim Wakefield 8-8 with a 4.14 ERA. The most encouraging projection is for Jonathan Papelbon, who is making the transition from closer to starter: 14-6, 2.98 ERA

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/11/03/cost_may_be_out_of_their_range/

 

 

If I remember correctly, Bill James is employed by the sox, so some bias will have to be considered. All in all though, if his #s are spot on, the sox will have a pretty good lineup.

[Gom]

Does James predict down years for anyone? It seems like the entire thing is nothing but improvements...

 

Anyways, the predictions don't seem so crazy, so who knows?

[BSN07]

Why predict anyone to go down? Besides Papi, Manny, Schilling, Papelbon, Lowell and Youk, the rest of the team had an off year. Pena, Tek, Nixon, Loretta, Gonzo, Coco, Hinske, Timlin, Foulke,Beckett( decent year, not at expectations tho), Wakefield and anyone else in the pen all basically had down years at the plate or pitching either do to injury, age or just a sub par year. Maybe he just expects everyone healthy to bounce back. And those numbers besides Papi and Manny's are n't huge numbers. They are seem feesable. As far as them being improvements i'm not sure. They look pretty much the same as before maybe slightly better. The pitching staff def. looks down in those predictions.

[ORS]

Does James predict down years for anyone? It seems like the entire thing is nothing but improvements...

 

Anyways, the predictions don't seem so crazy, so who knows?

All improvements? Look again. Manny, Ortiz, Lowell, and Pena are marginally worse than last year. Crisp and Varitek, who were completely off-track awful last year, bounce back closer to, but still below, career averages. Seems about right.

 

Jackson, he does work for the Sox, but I doubt he allows bias to creep into his projections. In fact, I'll bet it's impossible. Projection systems like his, ZiPs, PECOTA, PrOPS are all just static equations that consider age, league, last year, career averages. They are blind, and these guys use them for every player, not just the ones on the team they work for. James has dedicated his life to the study of statistical relevance and value in baseball. It would shock me if he tweaked his system in order to pad the stats of the team he works for.

[Gom]

I will have to, much to my chagrin, agree with ORS here. Damn it. LOL!

[ORS]

I will have to' date=' much to my chagrin, agree with ORS here. Damn it. LOL![/quote']

Shhh, don't tell anyone.

[riverside sluggers]

I'm going to get his book soon & share with you guys about the other projections for 2007

[Gom]

There are plenty of threads about who will improve. This is a thread about who will decline on the Yanks and Sox. So who will it be, folks?

[EvilDonut]

There are plenty of threads about who will improve. This is a thread about who will decline on the Yanks and Sox. So who will it be' date=' folks?[/quote']

 

I thought this was a thread about if the sox are good enough for next year. Hence the Title "Are the Sox good enough for 2007?"

 

?

[Gom]

Oops...I posted in the wrong forum, lol...I had two windows open. My bad.

 

The Sox suck. They will fight it out with Baltimore for 4th in the division. LOL!

 

Seriously, can someon explain to me why you guys want to trade Manny?

[EvilDonut]

Oops...I posted in the wrong forum, lol...I had two windows open. My bad.

 

The Sox suck. They will fight it out with Baltimore for 4th in the division. LOL!

 

Seriously, can someon explain to me why you guys want to trade Manny?

 

I dont think any of us want to because of his attitude but if we can get some solid pitchers or a few big bats then id consider it.

 

Me? Pujos or Santana for manny and thats it!

[riverside sluggers]

Oops...I posted in the wrong forum, lol...I had two windows open. My bad.

 

The Sox suck. They will fight it out with Baltimore for 4th in the division. LOL!

 

Seriously, can someon explain to me why you guys want to trade Manny?

 

Keep up the trollish posts. I thought your angle was to get Sox fans to have "friendly" banter with you?

 

Why do you always say "you guys" as if youre implying all of us think exactly alike? Hmm where's the trade Manny for the love of God!! threads?... Wait a second there's no such threads or even posts. Its the front office, not the fans that are trying to rid themselves of him

 

LOL ROFL, and any other IM crap abbreviations!!!

[Cocos Disciples]

I'm going to get his book soon & share with you guys about the other projections for 2007

 

I want to as well, but I looked in a couple stores and they didn't have it. It was supposed to come out the 1st, but nobody has it...what gives? Do you know of anywhere that does carry it?

[example1]

Why not ask the question right now? It's not like either one of us has a game to watch tonight.

 

As for catching the Yankees, I think that it is a remote possibility at this point. The Red Sox took a much worse turn for wear than the Yankees did this year. I think that irrespective of what happens this year, the Sox and Yanks will be much closer to each other in 2008, but thats with the teams as they are now.

 

The Yankees will not cut payroll, but they will keep it where it is. That being said, the Yankees will save approximately $22 million by letting Sheffield go, reworking Mussina, and buying out/trading Jaret Wright. That should get two starting pitchers, which is the huge achilles heel of the team.

 

I'm just stirring up some talk, it's going to be a long 4 months for all of us. At least you have the Patriots. Jets and Giants suck, Knicks are horrible, and who the hell are the Metrostars? Hockey is no longer a sport. It's like barroom darts now.

 

As for the rotation of the Sox and Yankees, there is only one really good pitcher on either team, and that's Wang. Schilling and Mussina are getting up there, only going to get worse, Beckett is a head case, Randy Johnson should be put to pasture and shot along with Clement, and Wakefield is getting up there and coming off injuries. You guys have a few unproven young 'uns who may or may not pan out, but the truth is, at this point, there is only one good starting pitcher on either team. Also, in the pen, outside of Papelbon [who is a question mark only due to health] and Rivera, no one on either staff is an eye-opener. Just how do you like your staff that much? Tell you the truth, the best staff in the AL is probably the Blue Jays. No one touches the Halliday, and B.J. Ryan had an awesome season. They have better young pitching than we do at this point IMHO.

 

Just wanting to know how the Red Sox plan to make up the difference between them and the front-runners. Even the most ardent Sox fan has to realize that they have slipped out of the top 3-5 teams of the AL.

 

Okay, this is kind of a stupid question to start with but I'll address it nonetheless.

 

This is pure condesention. It's as if the Yankees somehow achieved some great feat this season, posting yet-another AL Best record, only to collapse in the playoffs. The tigers are a good team but I don't think they're as good as either the 05' Chi-Sox or the 04 Red Sox. They're solid with some good (high ceiling) pitchers.

 

I think we either don't know the whole story from Beckett or he's going to be better next year. He's not a headcase, he's a young pitcher who made a huge adjustment last year and threw more innings and got more wins last year than he ever has before. In a season that's a down year for him and for the sox I consider that a positive thing. Statistically he's on the cusp of being a top-tier pitcher. We all got a little too hopeful about him coming to boston, but I don't hear too many people complaining that we have him.

 

Wang is wang. I wouldn't get too excited about him. He's a good young pitcher but his stuff is not dominating but he's got nice poise. If Wang is the best you got then you certainly will looking up at the other AL teams.

 

If I'm in the playoffs I'll take Schilling over Wang 10 times out of 10 given how they each pitched this seasons and the head they each have on their shoulders. I thought Schill looked pretty darn good this season; much better than I expected.

 

Currently the Sox have 4 pitchers who could be #2 on other staffs throughout the league in Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield and Papelbon. None of them would be a #1 on a World Series team. 4 x #2 is a lot of potential and could be a very good staff if they add a Matsuzaka, Schmidt, Clemens or Zito. Or it could be a slightly above average staff if Matt Clement or Jon Lester returns to fill out the top 5.

 

Give me 162 games, an offseason full of moves and I agree there are probably 6 teams at the top of the AL, but I couldn't tell you which one is best. It's a crap shoot and it always depends on which team is playing the best.

 

Would you have said my prediction was off my dome if I told you that the Red Sox would be an 86 win team and not even be close to a playoff spot at the beginning of this season?

 

I am actually surprised at the Red Sox decline this year. In fact, I think it is more of an abberation than the trend. I expect the Sox to be better this year, but as it is now, they are looking up at a few teams. My question was if they would contend for the wild card, and how they would go about it. Truthfully, I don't see the Red Sox making up the 11 games they have to in order to win the AL East.

 

I'm not sold on Schmidt. I think what will make the East very tough for the Red Sox is that the Yankees look to put every dollar they have into their pitching. Realize that with the addition of Abreau and the removal of Sheffield, the Yankees don't really lose much offensively. If, and I admit it is a big if, the Yankees stay healthy next season, they may make a push at 1000 runs.

 

It is pretty much a safe bet to admit that the Yankees will land one of the big three of Zito, Matsuzaka, and Schmidt. Couple that with possibly a free agent or two in the pen, and I think that barring injuries, the Sox can pretty much write off winning the East.

 

P.S. On the Sheffield front, CNNSI reports that Cashman already has a trade done for Sheffield, but is waiting it out to see if he can get a better offer. Shall I say "told ya so"? LOL! Here's the link: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/scorecard/10/31/truth.rumors.mlb/index.html

 

THis s*** is pretty funny to read. Hey Gom. Are you reading this? You were so damn cocky about the Yankees being SO much better than the Red Sox, and so damn condecending.

 

I'm pretty sure I just watched the Yankees fall 8 games out of 1st place. Is it injuries? No. Their pitching just sucks.

 

One of the things about posting on this site is that while MOST people will forget about what you write, but I will use the "search" tool and call you out when it is appropriate.

 

Have the Sox won the division yet? Of course not. Are they unquestionably NOT in the top 8 teams in the AL. Well, you can answer that one.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Good call, Gom. Right on the money at this point.

[Gom]

THis s*** is pretty funny to read. Hey Gom. Are you reading this? You were so damn cocky about the Yankees being SO much better than the Red Sox, and so damn condecending.

 

I'm pretty sure I just watched the Yankees fall 8 games out of 1st place. Is it injuries? No. Their pitching just sucks.

 

One of the things about posting on this site is that while MOST people will forget about what you write, but I will use the "search" tool and call you out when it is appropriate.

 

Have the Sox won the division yet? Of course not. Are they unquestionably NOT in the top 8 teams in the AL. Well, you can answer that one.

 

We may not have a better record than the Red Sox, this is true. However, I think that right now, we are the best team in baseball [along with the Angels, I can't make up my mind who's better]. We had a bad start with injuries, and our record is worse than our run scored differential would predict. After that three game sweep of you guys in the Bronx, is there any team out there you would want to face less than us in the post-season. I worry about the Angels at this point, not you. The division race is really of little consequence to me, I want to win simply to avoid the Angels.

[soxfan17881]

...After that three game sweep of you guys in the Bronx' date=' is there any team out there you would want to face less than us in the post-season...[/quote']

 

I worry much more about the Angels than the Yankers. I would lose less sleep if the Angels won the WS as opposed to the Yankers.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would think you guys could handle Anaheim, as you guys own them. We, on the other hand, do not. I like our chances against Cleveland and against you guys, even if we dont have the home field. But going to Anaheim for 3 of 5 would be suboptimal IMO.

[Ray10]

Yeah I have to agree on this one I fear the Angels more than the Yankees. I think that the Angels own the Red Sox this year and If it came down to us playing them in the postseason I would become very very worried.

[jacksonianmarch]

the sox are under .500 against 3 teams in all of the AL. NYY, SEA, and OAK. You guys are 6-4 against LAA.

[Thumper]

I wouldn't be concerned with the Yankees at all, 7-8 against them, despite being behind it's close enough to show we can put a fight up. If anyone I feel concerned with against the Sox it would probably be the Angels. Even though we're 6-4 with them, they've got a good record this season.

[example1]

Yeah I have to agree on this one I fear the Angels more than the Yankees. I think that the Angels own the Red Sox this year and If it came down to us playing them in the postseason I would become very very worried.

 

I don't think the Angels own us at all. The games tend to be close but these teams are actually pretty similar. They are both built on good pitching and a solid bullpen with some pretty good offense. The Sox offense is better relative to the Angels pitching than the Angels offense is relative to Sox pitching... if that makes sense. The Yankees offense is the one wildcard. I think the Sox can stay close with any teams' best pitcher, but that Yankees offense can make any pitcher look bad at any time, including anyone the Sox have to throw at them (not counting Buchholz, who could be the ace in the hole). I still like the Sox chances against the Yankees and feel it would be a good series, but of all the teams they are the ones I fear most. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi, Matsui, Posada, Cano and Cabrera are a formidable lineup indeed.

 

It is likely that, if things go the sox' way, we will have to play either the Angels or the Yankees at some point in the playoffs, and I would much prefer to play the Angels. Less stressful to watch as every opposing inning won't have the chance to put 10 runs on the board with Mariano Rivera warming in the 'pen. I would prefer to avoid the most stressful moments possible.