UtahSox

Early is not gonna pitch again til spring training 2028 you heard it here 1st. TJ’s surgery impending. But in Boston fashion we will wait 60 days then realize it’s not improving opting for TJ’s in September 2026.

I think Durbin would fit this team really well IF we get 2 more + power bats for 2027. His defense has been nothing less than incredible.

As I recall, a lot of people on here questioned all offseason whether this lineup was going to be enough. In fact, I think there was near-consensus that the lineup had some major red flags. There was a lot of streaky hitting, a lot of swing-and-miss, and several players with a history of injuries. Quite frankly, there was also a lack of power. Breslow knew it, too. Back in October, he said the Red Sox needed a power bat and a No. 2 starter. He went out and added two aces to the rotation, but never adequately addressed the lineup. That decision has come back to haunt both him and the fan base. His gamble required 3-4 young, streaky, injury-prone players to have career years just for the offense to be middle-of-the-pack. To me, this season feels like the scene in Titanic after the ship hits the iceberg. The engineer explains that the ship can survive if water enters up to four compartments, but the fifth compartment is the death knell. That’s what this season has felt like. Too many things had to go right, and too many have gone wrong. 1. Narváez/ Catcher-Not great behind the plate in the ABS era, and currently sitting at a 51 OPS+. 2. Abreu- If you remove April and extrapolate his May-July production over a full 162-game season, he would be on pace for: .240 AVG, .709 OPS, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 87 OPS+ Those are serviceable numbers, but not when left field and DH production have fallen so far short of expectations. 3. Duran- Catastrophic production relative to expectations. No need to elaborate. 4. Anthony- Somehow this situation has been even worse than the Jarren Duran setback because it’s another bizarre, freak injury that simply isn’t healing. Even before the injury, his April was well below expectations. 5. Story / Mayer- Story has been horrendous: Not healthy. Producing a 55 OPS+. Mayer has struggled with both health and performance, posting just a .594 OPS. Individually, maybe you can survive one or two of these disappointments. But when all of them happen at the same time, the lineup simply doesn’t have enough depth, power, or consistency to absorb the damage. That’s why this offense has looked exactly like many of us feared it might back in the offseason. And if all of us “fanatics” could see it, why couldn’t the RS FO/ ownership?

On paper off paper whatever……., The one who already had Yandy Diaz, and Junior Caminero, and doesn’t buy so deep into analytics that half their team is injured all the time.

I agree, The offense is stuck in tear down mode, Specifically C, 2b, SS, DH/LF… that’s with average offensive output from Rafaela and Abreu. As moon has stated we can really go get best available….. I personally like the idea of trading a couple highly touted pitchers and either Arias or Mayer depending on whom you project/scout to be better…. Do this for a sure thing bat. while the the pitching staff is ready for World Series glory.

BTV is hella struggling right now. Gray, Contreras, Chapman, Bennett are laughable. I think they over value Rafaela a little.

Mayer and Durbin battling it out on meritocracy, Mayer won’t play at all. Also with Schmitt at 3b (below avg defender) has had a career year in 2026 16 HR’s, 64 k’s to only 7 BB, obp% 300. id rather keep Durbin at 3b, sign B Lowe at 2nd base. then use Mayer+ Early or Tolle+ Azocar+ Eyanson as trade bait to get a real DH/ 4th OF… BTV has that as 100+ value. Like a James Wood.

On Marte- He will make what? I thought it was around 15m AAV through 2030. Marte is an amazing hitter at a very reasonable rate. The ONLY reason he is even being mentioned for a trade is all those thorns on his sides…. He is DURABLE, when in lineup mashes……. I’d trade Mayer and either Tolle or Early + a young OF prospect for him. On B Lowe- He will be a free agent and with the scarcity of bats, I’ll bet you he gets 4-5 years 100-125m. Definitely won’t be cheaper than 14m AAV (Marte) IMO. Even if he costs RS 5yrs 125m I think he would still be my preferred option just because that way you could use the other assets for another Bat.

If Arias is that close we need to trade Mayer, to me Mayer and Story with the Arias pipe dream is a hard pass. Mayer and Arias middle infield is not going to work til 2028ish, For 2027 Arias/ Mayer has a lot higher ceiling, but a more probable scenario equally low basement to 2026…. The rest of the RS lineup cannot absorb the learning curve for 2 guys with 5’s or low 6’s in their OPS…. We need a proven infielder not named Trevor. I wonder with our SP’s 8 under contract next year, the 5 best SP’s are under contract through 2030. Just how many opportunities to break into rotation are Eyanson, Witherspoon, Valera, M Phillips going to get? crochet 5 yrs left…Suarez 4 yrs left..,, Tolle 5 yrs left…., Early 5 yrs left….. Bennett 6 yrs left…..Bello 3 yrs left..,,,Crawford 2yrs left…..Houck 1 yr left. IF RS are in fact waiting on Arias, are they now punting on this “window” we planned for 26-28 and if we are….. selling Whitlock/ Contreras/ Chapman all w/ 2027 options Then would it behoove us to see what we could get for Crochet, Suarez, and Abreu as well?

1- The only way I think you can ride with Mayer at shortstop is if you get a really big bat at second base like a Lowe or a jazz Chisholm. I’d still prefer we go get Marte here. DFA Story. If the Red Sox roll out Mayer at shortstop and story at second base next year, that’ll be the worst hitting middle infield in Major league baseball again. There is zero chance we can go into 2027 with Mayer and story as our middle infield. Also I think you could get a 3rd baseman and move Durbin to 2nd which could work the same depending on the 3rd baseman. 3b Paredes or Markel Garcia SS Mayer 2b Durbin could work but only if a masher DH is added. 2- I’ve been an obnoxious, Duran supporter, and I was wrong, he just doesn’t have that many good at bats….. I’m done. I think it’s time to move on even if we don’t get a lot in return. I’d rather us play Massa every day.

This is a fantastic post, I like the way you articulated our strength and our weaknesses in terms of total hitters. It’s no wonder our record is what it is when you see where offensively we rank. My question is where is the ceiling of all of these guys? because I’m scared given our proclivity to not spend money in free agency, and avoid the long-term contracts how we are going to obtain more top 100 hitters. I had a second question I’d really like to see is where world championship rosters rank? Do they generally have two top 20 hitters? Do they usually have 3 to 4 in the top 100 how are those lineups usually built?

Please don’t be one of those nights when we take the field vs a 5 ERA pitcher and make them look like a Cy Young Candidate. 🙏

3 things can be independently true… 1- Cora has some blame in all of this, his inability/ lack of willingness to even speak with Devers is an indictment on his lack of managerial control. Because it’s pretty obvious Bregman is a better 3b than Devers. 2- Devers is a very entitled person, whether these rumors are true or not about promises from Bloom. Devers bag was secure, and he could clearly look at data, and realize him allowing them to bring in AB2 made the Red Sox better. He didn’t care. Lack of willingness to help the team for his own perceived benefit is a pattern we’ve seen even in SF. The dude can rake though, and I imagine after as he wears a 1b glove in SF, feels that wind at his back holding balls in the ballpark he wishes he would’ve handled things slightly different. Devers deserves blame for his selfishness. 3- Breslow job is to get the best possible team he can. This rare instance he performed in signing a FA bat. The communication should have been there with Devers. That being said, I sat next to a member of the front office last year at a game, who told me Devers promised a few things when signing his massive contract. About learning language, coming into spring training in better shape and that he goes down to DR during winter and just disappears….., Maybe someone tried to communicate with him and he was busy dodging them in DR, afraid they were going to make him work out? Breslin deserves some blame for making the move knowing how RD11 would react. Reality: Devers at DH is exactly what this freaking team needs. 15-18 HR’s to go along with WC40 18 HR’swould be exactly what this team needs.

Just a reminder Red Sox are a circus! He would comfortably be our 2nd most productive hitter. I digress…… Thoughts on Orioles? Rutschman or maybe Pete Alonso?? thoughts on Royals? Maikel Garcia I know he is having down year?? odds of Marte becoming Available? any other 750+ bats that could be available?

You must have missed the part about or traded back for him at terms agreeable to RS……. I know it’s dumb/terrible idea it’s just the irony that he is the exact type of bat we are missing.

Not speaking financially…… just Roster wise. How much better would you feel about next years lineup IF we never traded Devers? Or traded him back in terms that were agreeable to us? 1b- Contreras 2b- Adames or Marte (Mayer was traded in my fantasy world last December) SS- Story or maybe Arias 3b- Durbin LF Anthony CF Rafaela RF Abreu DH Devers C Narvaez/ Wong

BTV severely under values Rushing IMO when you factor years and nearly 800 OPS 9HR already a 1.1 WAR after 156 AB’s extrapolate that out that’s a 4.5 WAR at 25 years old catcher with 5 years control. again I’m all for it. 100% in but I think it takes Early or Tolle + Prospects. Almost any other move whether trade/ or Free agency is going to require taking on more money coming back. So why not go get Adames? Add him + Story + Mayer to play middle Infield.

So to clarify your roster going into 2027: C- (trade), 1st- WC40, 2nd- Story, SS- Mayer, 3b- Durbin, LF- Roman, CF- Rafaela, RF- Abreu, DH- (Free Agent)… Trade options: Quero .486 OPS I’m out….. he looks like Narvaez 2.0 Rushing- I think this checks the box for me. Rushing trade would probably be Early or Tolle+ farm talent… Assuming dodgers willing to trade for SP as that’s where we have depth. Rushing Almost .800 OPS DH Free Agent Options: Taylor Ward (honestly I like) but it’ll make JH really uncomfortable in terms of years, Paul Goldschmidt took a discount to stay in NYC unlikely, Brandon Lowe (honestly I like) but again a 32 yr old Free agent looking to get paid. Ramon Laureano meh, Miguel Andujar?? Outside of them getting Rushing and Lowe/ Ward them rolling this lineup out in March 2027 doesn’t make you want to puke?

1- Because we don’t have any options on this team at C, 2b, SS, or DH that can even touch 750+ OPS over course of season. 2- because this free agent class blows, and the thought of going through 2027 with the worst HR hitting team in baseball in a hitter friendly ballpark makes me want to stab my eyeballs out. 3- assuming Roman comes back and starts hitting at 800+ OPS, Durbin continues to play more like he has in June, Rafaela and Wilyer I believe will be .750 OPS guys. We still have 4 positions in lineup with sub hitters. 4- Assuming Willson continues to play really well but reverts back to that 820 OPS rather than the 900 then we still have 4 positions with no path to measured improvements without a spend or depletion of farm system. Assuming Breslow sits down with JH and says OK……. If we want to look different offensively in 2027 here are our options. C- Narvaez/ Wong both are waaaaaaay below hitters and can’t be counted on for much in 2027. 1B- WC will be 35 but 900 OPS good D, check the box 2B- free agent or Romy/ Seigler platoon SS- Story/ Mayer a. Story 547 OPS, below avg defense and played 49.2% of possible games in Red Sox uniform. b. Mayer young not really consistent injury prone. 3b- Durbin assuming he plays like he has in June very solid. Check the box LF- Roman injury prone and very young. Check the box CF- Rafaela check the box RF- Abreu Check the box DH Duran/ Yoshida below par play out of this position aging not getting better actually worsening. SP is fully in the win now window even if we trade Sonny Gray away. Houck, Oviedo, Crawford, most likely Bello, Early , Tolle, Suarez, Crochet.

I don’t think it’s overblown. In my industry you have 2 types of management 1. Fear of making mistakes asset preservation management. 2. Celebrating the wins/ taking risks asset acquisition management. What do you think has shifted in Boston? And what type of management directive are Red Sox following since 2020? Dodgers have bad contracts everywhere, Tucker might be the worst value add all time, but they focus on the wins and keep pushing. Padres definitely have some clouds looming on their balance sheet, but they have increased love/ interest in that team year after year because they take chances. Guess which type attracts good talent?

Amen 100% agree

2 thoughts first on Breslow second on ownership. 1- I tend to agree, that Breslow must go. I’ll explain why…..ownership has definitely put a divider between him and them and you can see the divider being built from the day he fired Cora. Dead man walking sign to me. My analysis: His errors of commission: He botched communication with Diva Devers, He continues to overvalue Narvaez, undervalues Masa, should have never signed Roman/Campbell to extension deals yet. (My stance on signing Roman to that deal has never waivered). Errors of Omission: should have traded Mayer and Duran. Breslow went into offseason needing a big bat via free agency/ trade. WC40 offset the AB bat but we needed 1 More big bat…. His “models and analytics” drastically underestimated the value of productive bats. A decent year 1 return on WC40, Sonny, Bennett, and Ranger doesn’t make up for the fact that he created the offensive catastrophe by not signing a big bat. Durbin is far from a success story so far, has shown promise as of late. Breslow still hasn’t course corrected on bat, despite saying management saying things like “we are willing to take on money in a longer contract”.. conclusion he needs to be fired: Adios Amigo 2- We need management/ownership to focus a little bit more on 2027 season, less on having cap flexibility and value add contracts in 2031.

I’d obviously prefer Adames but Bichette, Lowe would be solid…. My favorite idea with these 3 is that i think it would take very little outside of AAV capital to get them… on these other guys it will take a ton of young assets to get them..

Every move i have seen anyone list has 2027 more in mind… 2026 while I want to win but agree long shot. Aside from the Mets trade. But here is the logical case. mets trade would give them 65m in salary relief while taking back only 17m. that would save them 80-90m in cash savings. Give them 2 young highly touted guys who they could “fix” and Jake Bennett who looks really really good. For the RS one thing they can do is develop pitchers so we could easily survive that move. Plus will need space in next years starting rotation. So trading Bennett would be survivable. i just don’t see another bat available in FA anywhere near the value of Bichette. Devin Williams could be fixed/ be a boost to bullpen in 2026 maybe 2027?. Peralta would be awesome to add to 2026 rotation if we got into WC, but also could be sold at deadline if we don’t go on a run. That my case for the most 2026 centric trade I’ve seen on here.