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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    We're always in 'build' mode. Right now, if the season opened tomorrow, then Duran is our DH, maybe. The OF would be RA, CR, and WA. FG projects Yoshida as a 111 wRC+. and Duran as 111. Duran marginal utility to the RS is very small. In fact, Vientos has a higher projected wRC+ than Duran. In fact, I could make a pretty good case that Vientos backing up Mayer, Casas and Yoshida would add more value than Duran backing up our OF and Yoshida.
  2. JoeBrady
    Then none of the numbers matter, and we might as well sign Alonso, Bregman, Tucker and Bichette. But the reality is that there is a number we will not exceed, and that trade would make the number $8M higher.
  3. JoeBrady
    I don't get the concept at all. We had the #9 team, had the #6 run differential, and one of the best farms in BB. We are obviously a contender in 2026, but probably for a long time after,
  4. JoeBrady
    I've been drinking too, but no, he is not our #2.
  5. JoeBrady
    2.1 in '30 and 1.6 in '31. You kind of have to include all years.
  6. JoeBrady
    Think in terms of 'on average'. Don't hate the science; hate the accountant.
  7. JoeBrady
    The point being that we would have $29M to spend instead of $21M.
  8. JoeBrady
    The science says 0.5 WAR per year.
  9. JoeBrady
    IMO, he won't be any better than 3-4 guys we have at that level. And since Duran can likely land us someone like Lodolo, I would much prefer Lodolo.
  10. JoeBrady
    IMHO, he is on par with Tolle.
  11. JoeBrady
    Tong + Vientos for Duran frees up $8M in spending.
  12. JoeBrady
    That's all. I'm not saying it can't happen that he retains his skills for 4-5 years, but it has to be a consideration. And, FWIW, I have no objection to trading for the guy-just not giving up the farm for him. Duran for Marte is ballpark fair. I just wouldn't be adding much by the way of prospects.
  13. JoeBrady
    I don't get the attraction of Donovan. He's a platoon player for the most part. Over the past two years, he has a 116 OPS+ while Romy has a 118+.
  14. JoeBrady
    And if they were RS players, everyone would've been screaming for them to be traded, before they ever hit the pros. Something, something prospects=suspects, something, something.
  15. JoeBrady
    Not close. And I seriously doubt that Mil is looking for another outfielder.
  16. JoeBrady
    Probably a one-year platoon with Casas, and a backup at 3rd.
  17. JoeBrady
    From 2015-2025, ten full years, only 4 players have averaged 2.5 fWAR/year.
  18. JoeBrady
    Taking everyone from 2010-2011, with a fWAR of 3.0 or better, they suffered on average, a decline of 0.9 per year. There is a lot of variance in here. Pujols -3.3 Holliday -2.1 Bautista +0.6 Texeira -2.4 Uggla -2.7 Granderson -0.5 Beltre +2.2 Zobrist +1.2
  19. JoeBrady
    I would be, but it also depends on the length of the deal. No one worried about Pujols, and he had only one good year with the Angels. No one worried about Trout. No one worries about anyone 31-32, until they stop. And all of them stop.
  20. JoeBrady
    That's not the way FG calculates a player's decline. They take a look at every player that has ever played, and they extrapolate the numbers. It's entirely possible that any given player will beat the odds. But I'd make a substantial wager that the total fWAR of all of 2025 32 y.o. players will be lower than they will be in 2026. Aging is undefeated.
  21. JoeBrady
    You kind of have to say which side you like. For a team like the Mets, who have some young pitching and need a CF, it makes sense. For a team like the RS, who have 4 legit OFs, trading one of them makes sense.
  22. JoeBrady
    Soler has only 1 error in the past four years, has a higher fielding % than Duran, and I might be a better fielder.
  23. JoeBrady
    I think Moon is under-estimating the age issue. From 2021-2025 (5 years), for ages 32-36 (5 years), FG shows only 6 players with a WAR > 10.0.
  24. JoeBrady
    If I felt compelled to add a 2B, I'd simply sign Polanco and trade Duran for an SP.
  25. JoeBrady
    That's a bug, not a feature. It's actually 5 years plus a one-year player. I'd much rather pay Duran thru age 31 and be done with him, than be paying Marte $22M at ages 35 & 36.
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