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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    Go with Romy/DHam platoon? I would do it, pending the deepest dive medical in history on Ragan's arm. He's a legit #2 with control. But why would KC trade him if he was healthy? His 3 years are more valuable than Skubal's one year.
  2. JoeBrady
    I agree. If he gets traded at the deadline, even at $32M, you only owe about $11M, and our share of difference is ($32-19)/3 or an extra $4M. That one more okay prospect. And if you trade/sign, then it's couch cushion change.
  3. JoeBrady
    Unfortunately, too many moving pieces. There were several small differences, which surprised me. And Crochet earned a $1.5M bonus for finishing #2 in CY. But I'm not sure if the gets applied to the year it was earned or whether it just increases his 2026. But the only interesting piece was what Soxprospects calls Minor League Cost at $14.0M. I assume it covers all the 0-3 players, plus anyone getting promoted/demoted during the year. Cots has something similar called 0- to 3-year players in majors/0- to 3-year players in minors. They only have $7.4M for that. I presume that's the major difference between the two calculations.
  4. JoeBrady
    I think it's fairly straightforward. Assuming we sign Bregman, then C, 1B, SS, 3B, and all 3 outfield spots will have full-time players. Mayer and Yoshi will be mostly fulltime, with Romy getting decent platoon time at 2B and DH. Casas has to start in the minors. Either Duran or Yoshi have to go.
  5. JoeBrady
    That's one of the reasons I prefer signing a 3B. If Bregman gets hurt, Mayer goes to 3B and Hammy/Romy platoon. If Story gets hurt, same thing.
  6. JoeBrady
    Houck was borderline. I'm not sure hoe he claims a spot in the rotation, this year or next. Casas was automatic. Even if he starts off in AAA, he still has serious value. From 2022-2024, at a minimum of 800 PAs, Casas is #36 out of 283 eligible. The funny part is, over that period, there are two interesting guys tied with him-Schwarber and Ketel Marte, with Bregman being only one point behind, and Paredes only 4 points behind.
  7. JoeBrady
    But we don't know that price. Suppose AZ offered him $180M/6. Does that mean we offer him $200M/6?
  8. JoeBrady
    IMO, no one should be. I think he is a fine target, even though some disagree. And they might be right. But the best player in any sport can be a bad buy at the wrong price.
  9. JoeBrady
    These people should never be allowed to speak in public. Theo said nothing. DD would talk like it pained him to speak. Everything is couched. Nothing is explicit. Saying 'full throttle' is just trying to get attention in the press.
  10. JoeBrady
    I seriously doubt that a projected 112+ hitter starts off in AAA. Their bench, without a trade, will almost certainly be Wong, Hammy, Romy and ???
  11. JoeBrady
    How do they arrive at the value? I assume it starts with a FG WAR projection multiplied by the annual rate for a FA. Just using $9M/fWAR, this means they are projecting 3.06 fWAR/year for Duran. That feels low to me, but that can be a separate analysis. But the Rafaela number implies 1.5 fWAR per year. I'd make a serious magical wager he exceeds that. He was at 3.8 last year.
  12. JoeBrady
    Both Romy and Yoshida will be on the team.
  13. JoeBrady
    But they count that as an asset or liability? Based on what we know today, what are his first two years of free agency worth?
  14. JoeBrady
    I'd ignore all of them. Negotiating against rumors is useless. Put a number on him, put an expiration date on him, and move on. You hope he accepts. Alternatively, you could weight Option A against option B and C. If the RS are indifferent to Bregman at $140M/5, Bichette at $160M/6, or Marte for Early, then you just see which option you come closest to.
  15. JoeBrady
    But like I always say, that's baked into the price. They're talking $300M or so for Tucker, and he's never broken 5.5 bWAR. Bichette only had a 3.5 last year. If Bregman was still carrying a 157 OPS+, you'd be looking at closer to $40M per.
  16. JoeBrady
    As they should be. Mission creep can be disastrous. Too many teams get caught up in rumors and wind up thinking that $21M is only $1M more than $20M. Then $22M is only $1M more than $21M. You should know ahead of time exactly what your final number is going to be. Same with a house. Same with a car.
  17. JoeBrady
    I'm not familiar him. Does he provide details by player? If so, do you have a link?
  18. JoeBrady
    It's important to note that he hasn't had any bad seasons (excluding injuries). He's never had a wRC+ lower than 114, and averaged 122 over the past three seasons.
  19. JoeBrady
    We exceeded in 2019 by $22M, or roughly 11% of the first threshold. Extrapolated to 2026, that's a total of ~$270M. My guess is that we come in slightly under the $264M and re-assess at the trade deadline.
  20. JoeBrady
    Not a problem at all. So long as I am not referenced, I have no problem ignoring him.
  21. JoeBrady
    Per Cots, we are at $239.77. While that's not a huge difference, in the realm of the 2nd threshold, it's huge. To get to $263.99, we have either $20.5 or $24.2 to offer Bregman. Getting a contract down from, say the $25M-28M range, down to $24.2M, it is simply matter of adding one dead-money year to the contract.
  22. JoeBrady
    I don't think opt-outs will be an issue. He just doesn't have enough worthwhile productive time left. Basically, two good years, one mediocre, and two declining years. Even if he wanted an opt-out after year 3, that value would be diminimus.
  23. JoeBrady
    Too many variables. I have no choice but to use the FG projection for 2026. After that, while I know the declines are not precisely 0.5, I think it's close enough for discussion purposes. I assume he is already in decline but so is half of baseball.
  24. JoeBrady
    There is not a single person in the world I don't get along with. Plenty that I disagree with, but none that I couldn't have a beer with.
  25. JoeBrady
    I'm not homophobic whatsoever. I said I disliked gay-baiting, and most gays probably agree. I'm curious what makes you think I'm a fascist. I'm probably on the Left 40% of the time. Glad to see you admit that my 'perceived' political views is what is driving you. That's what is wrong with America, but fortunately, neither the far left nor the far right own the political landscape.
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