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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    Again, this is one of those issues I'd prefer on numbers. Here's my take, and EVERYONE can feel free to disagree with it: FG projects (projection warning) Bregman for a ~3.8 WAR. If I apply the standard -0.5 decline each year, then his 5-year WAR is 14. At $125M/5 (net, for the people that don't like deferrals) that I hope for, that's $8.9M. IMHO, $8.9M per is about break-even. The reason I like Bregman at that number is that we aren't overflowing in future IF help. I'd prefer Mayer at 3rd, but that's small potatoes. The way I see it, the l/t 2nd, SS, 3rd alignment will a combination of Mayer, Arias, and no one else I feel comfortable with. For those inclined to throw furniture, I won't care. I've done so myself.
  2. JoeBrady
    I agree completely, and I think most GMs think the same. The draft picks are just part of the cost, much like freight is on a purchase. I like Bregman well enough, but losing two picks annoys me. OTOH, if we offer Skubal $300M next year, the two draft picks are a nothing-burger.
  3. JoeBrady
    Only Manny, Damon and Foulke were real, high-priced FAs. I have no problem with that. But if they didn't back that up with shrewd acquisitons like Millar, Reese, Muuller, Papi, Timlin and Pedro, then Manny, Damon, and Foulke would've been meaningless.
  4. JoeBrady
    I give you a 100% permission to challenge any of my facts. I know we are going to disagree. I disagree with everyone in here on occasion. Some more, some less, but it would be rather strange to agree with anyone 100% of the time. In fact, I find disagreement to be healthy. That some on here dislike the idea of signing Bregman is just a discussion point for me. Nothing more.
  5. JoeBrady
    Because it is not their money. For those that own their own business in here, I'm kind of betting that you're looking to maximize revenue and minimize expenses in accordance with some long-term plan.
  6. JoeBrady
    IMO, they should average top-5. But it matters when we spend. We had weak teams from 2022-2024, and probably longer. IMHO, we over-spent. I think the league and the PA should take a position that team spending should ebb and flow. In the case of the RS, I'd have preferred to have spent $60M less over those three years, and then have $20M more added to 2026-2028.
  7. JoeBrady
    Like I said in my post, some guys will under-perform and other guys will over-perform.
  8. JoeBrady
    That's a key part of the equation. I always said that part of DD's genius (and Preller as well to a lesser degree) was convincing ownership to spend more. The Phillies draw a million more than they did before DD. I'm going to round that off to $100M+ in revenue. That pays for a lot of payroll. But, for better or worse, that won't happen in Boston. We're talking about maybe 250k more fans. That won't motivate more spending. We should spend more, but the market doesn't force us to spend more.
  9. JoeBrady
    You are certainly not wrong, but part of that comes from paying top dollar on long contracts. That said, a few of those guys have under-performed, such as Conforto, Teoscar, Snell (so far).
  10. JoeBrady
    No. I don't think it's crazy talk or anything, but I'm not sure Peterson will out-perform our #4-5-6 guys by enough to warrant losing C & C.
  11. JoeBrady
    It'll likely be more than $20M. Marte is locked in for $102M/6. If they signed Bregman to $150M/6, the extra cost is $48M, and Marte is probably the better player right now.
  12. JoeBrady
    I'd cross off Philly. If they sign Bregman to replace Bohm, it is a 1.5 fWAR upgrade that would make them unlikely to re-sign Realmuto.
  13. JoeBrady
    No. The extra year would only be $10M and the AAV would be lower. I prefer to go slightly longer with a lower AAV at this point in time.
  14. JoeBrady
    Like I've always said, I am all about adding value. I'd like a #2. But if someone were to offer a 2B or 3B of similar value, I'd do that. If no one wanted to do that, I'd trade for a prospect and buy a 2B or 3B.
  15. JoeBrady
    I absolutely cannot see the FA pitching list without thinking to myself "Where's Beeks? Where in the hell is Beeks?" What the heck, he's a lefty RP, sign him.
  16. JoeBrady
    I'm sure the teams do the same thing. No serious executive is going to say anything to the press unless it's a diversion.
  17. JoeBrady
    Many teams, including the RS, will make a good offer that they know will fall short. Not saying this is the case, but these articles are fairly meaningless.
  18. JoeBrady
    For all their spending, they have developed a lot of prospects. Smith, Pages, Sheehan and Kershaw came straight from their system, and Edman, Betts, and Glasnow came via trade. Again, money always helps, but you need development.
  19. JoeBrady
    Lack of developed prospects. Choosing 2022 at random, we had Bogaerts and Devers, who were added in maybe 2011, and now expensive? We had Vazquez at 2.2 bWAR. We had Whitlock and Houck at 1.8 and 1.6. You cannot spend your way to prosperity. We were 5th in payroll, but that's all we had. I understand that you won't agree with that, but the successful mega-market teams still have a lot of internal development.
  20. JoeBrady
    What is wrong with you?
  21. JoeBrady
    It's better than whatever anyone else has. That's vitally important.
  22. JoeBrady
    I don't have the ability to read a book that I know is a fiction. I open it, but I always know the author is making it up. I like history as well, but usually just Wiki it. But no work of fiction can come close to the level of arrogance and hubris found in the world of finance (and I am invested). Just the feeling that Burry must have gotten when the same people that laughed at him a week earlier, were now calling asking about the futures he held, was priceless. The arrogant prick I am, I'd have told them, "Sorry, I have Goldman and Duetsche on hold. I'll get back to you. Or I'll wait a week and feast on the carcass of what use to be your trillion $$$ company. '.
  23. JoeBrady
    That's one of my more fun research projects recently. Narvaez 2B Arias Mayer Campbell Rafaela Anthony DH Crochet Early Tolle Bello Witherspoon Obviously not everyone will succeed, but there will always be some that out-perform. But I find it virtually impossible (with no research to support my assertion) that anyone has anything close to a 2030 team like that. And 5 of those guys are locked in for $103M, leaving another ~$152M for arbitration and FA signings.
  24. JoeBrady
    Financial history is probably the only books I read. These guys are always, always, always the smartest guys in the room. Until they aren't. The Big Short is one of the best books ever written, of any genre, and the movie was excellent as well.
  25. JoeBrady
    Absolutely. But my point is that having a lot of money isn't going to lead to success if you are always bidding against teams willing to overpay. For all numbers going around, only 6 of the top-10 spenders even made the playoffs. The LAD, even with their gargantuan payroll, only finished with the 6th best record.
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