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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    You are certainly not wrong, but part of that comes from paying top dollar on long contracts. That said, a few of those guys have under-performed, such as Conforto, Teoscar, Snell (so far).
  2. JoeBrady
    No. I don't think it's crazy talk or anything, but I'm not sure Peterson will out-perform our #4-5-6 guys by enough to warrant losing C & C.
  3. JoeBrady
    It'll likely be more than $20M. Marte is locked in for $102M/6. If they signed Bregman to $150M/6, the extra cost is $48M, and Marte is probably the better player right now.
  4. JoeBrady
    I'd cross off Philly. If they sign Bregman to replace Bohm, it is a 1.5 fWAR upgrade that would make them unlikely to re-sign Realmuto.
  5. JoeBrady
    No. The extra year would only be $10M and the AAV would be lower. I prefer to go slightly longer with a lower AAV at this point in time.
  6. JoeBrady
    Like I've always said, I am all about adding value. I'd like a #2. But if someone were to offer a 2B or 3B of similar value, I'd do that. If no one wanted to do that, I'd trade for a prospect and buy a 2B or 3B.
  7. JoeBrady
    I absolutely cannot see the FA pitching list without thinking to myself "Where's Beeks? Where in the hell is Beeks?" What the heck, he's a lefty RP, sign him.
  8. JoeBrady
    I'm sure the teams do the same thing. No serious executive is going to say anything to the press unless it's a diversion.
  9. JoeBrady
    Many teams, including the RS, will make a good offer that they know will fall short. Not saying this is the case, but these articles are fairly meaningless.
  10. JoeBrady
    For all their spending, they have developed a lot of prospects. Smith, Pages, Sheehan and Kershaw came straight from their system, and Edman, Betts, and Glasnow came via trade. Again, money always helps, but you need development.
  11. JoeBrady
    Lack of developed prospects. Choosing 2022 at random, we had Bogaerts and Devers, who were added in maybe 2011, and now expensive? We had Vazquez at 2.2 bWAR. We had Whitlock and Houck at 1.8 and 1.6. You cannot spend your way to prosperity. We were 5th in payroll, but that's all we had. I understand that you won't agree with that, but the successful mega-market teams still have a lot of internal development.
  12. JoeBrady
    What is wrong with you?
  13. JoeBrady
    It's better than whatever anyone else has. That's vitally important.
  14. JoeBrady
    I don't have the ability to read a book that I know is a fiction. I open it, but I always know the author is making it up. I like history as well, but usually just Wiki it. But no work of fiction can come close to the level of arrogance and hubris found in the world of finance (and I am invested). Just the feeling that Burry must have gotten when the same people that laughed at him a week earlier, were now calling asking about the futures he held, was priceless. The arrogant prick I am, I'd have told them, "Sorry, I have Goldman and Duetsche on hold. I'll get back to you. Or I'll wait a week and feast on the carcass of what use to be your trillion $$$ company. '.
  15. JoeBrady
    That's one of my more fun research projects recently. Narvaez 2B Arias Mayer Campbell Rafaela Anthony DH Crochet Early Tolle Bello Witherspoon Obviously not everyone will succeed, but there will always be some that out-perform. But I find it virtually impossible (with no research to support my assertion) that anyone has anything close to a 2030 team like that. And 5 of those guys are locked in for $103M, leaving another ~$152M for arbitration and FA signings.
  16. JoeBrady
    Financial history is probably the only books I read. These guys are always, always, always the smartest guys in the room. Until they aren't. The Big Short is one of the best books ever written, of any genre, and the movie was excellent as well.
  17. JoeBrady
    Absolutely. But my point is that having a lot of money isn't going to lead to success if you are always bidding against teams willing to overpay. For all numbers going around, only 6 of the top-10 spenders even made the playoffs. The LAD, even with their gargantuan payroll, only finished with the 6th best record.
  18. JoeBrady
    One of the reasons I like building for the future. We shouldn't be in a last chance situation. One of the reasons I like the young kids signing is that I now see a 5-year window of contention. By my calculations, we are currently the best team in BB in 2030. If we don't drain off too many picks via FA penalties and CBT penalties (some is fine), then we should be well re-stocked again by 2031. With good management, we should always be a contender.
  19. JoeBrady
    Don't start. We re-did a half-bathroom. Beautiful, and not overly expensive. But the ajoining kitchen looked horrible, so we had to redo it. And, you know, as long as the guys are here, we should think about replacing the dining room ceiling. And then how much more would it cost to paint it? Oh, BTW, I no longer like the custom paint that you just bought and cannot be returned. My spouse was right on everything, and it was a showroom redo. But it's just a funny thing to move everything from two rooms, into two other rooms. I had to go on a diet to get past some of the furniture.
  20. JoeBrady
    Is that still true? I'd have thought 401k's would've caught up to house net equity by now
  21. JoeBrady
    Another reference point in 2004: RS $127M NYY $184M LAD $93M NYM $97M TOR $50M PHI $93M SDP $55M It felt like every FA was going to the NYY. And if the NYY passed, he was ours. There was seldom a 3rd team to bid against.
  22. JoeBrady
    More money is always better. But getting 100% return on $280M will beat the heck out of a team with an 85% return on $300M. There is no easy or straightforward answer.
  23. JoeBrady
    Just imho, the best financial aspect of owning a house is that it forces you to pay attention to your spending habits. Nothing focuses the mind more than being able to reconcile your checking account in your head.
  24. JoeBrady
    15 years ago was when people were zagging. Warren Buffet said it best (he borrowed it from someone else) when he said 'be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when other people are fearful'. After the mortgage debacle, I'd see comments all day long in Bloomberg people saying they would never buy a house, or that buying a house was stupid. That's usually when to make a move. That said, if you took your house mortgage money and invested in the S&P, you're still doing pretty well.
  25. JoeBrady
    It's a huge uptick. We were a bad team from 2022-2024, with little help from cheap prospects. If you don't have that, no amount of spending will make up for it. Now we have plenty on controlled, high-quality players.
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