drewski6

You would not make Sam Kennedy squirm by asking him a bunch of questions that are better suited for Breslow. I mean, maybe he would squirm, but the answer to all these questions is the same. We hired Breslow, Breslow does NOT have a strict "stay under" budget. Breslow made up the NTC thing on the spot. Not sure why he double dog dared Bregman to take the Cubs offer. Really the questions for SK is just one. Is this a make/break year for Breslow?

Just dont understand the Duran disrespect.

Agreed. I dont dislike Contreras or the move. I expect Contreras to contribute and be our best hitter next year who isnt an outfielder and likely our third best hitter overall. But a guy who can no longer play the position he always was, entering his age 34 season, who just his first sub .800 OPS season in a while is in an advanced stage of aging. And if he ages backwards (which does happen, see Al Horford), great. Freeman had an .850 OPS his age 34 season and while Contreras was never on Freemans level, I would happily take that.

ANd if hes not old, Contreras, this is great news for everybody but Narvaez.

Bregman is getting old, Contreras is old.

Dont try the gymnastics here....Contreras is going into his age 34 season and is 2 yrs older than Bregman. His OPS was under .800 last year for the first time in four years. It fell from .850 to sub .800 which is a concerning trend. And he cant play his primary position anymore becasue he got old. Hes aging well, yes. Hes doing a good job of staying a contributor in the aging process. He is quite advanced/far along in the aging process. I understand that aging is not always linear and different for everybody, but no way he would have gotten a 5 yr contract had he been a free-agent like Bregman/Alonso, and there is a reason why the Cards added money to make his contract worth trading for.

I agree, but I think Fred in his default state (not digging in heels and going 200 proof stubborn) is more reasonable than the people who go too far the other way talking about like GM of the year / one of the best off-seasons in baseball history / 2nd best team in MLB At least you agree with Freds underlying beliefs. I do love ur points regarding blame Breslow over JH and Im there.

The best thing that Breslow did this offseason is not trade any of : Duran, Anthony, Abreu But I dont really mean that as a knock. He made a lot of moves, and he impressively held onto to the dudes he needed to hold on to (not sure if that was by design or luck) Kind of like how DD somehow kept the prospects worth keeping while making a lot of moves (and similarly Im not sure how much of that was design or luck, e.g. other teams asking for the wrong prospect)

Fine. Whatever. Just dont use Casas as an excuse to trade Duran or expect Casas to save the season. Casas is in the "whatever we get from him is gravy" category for this year, but I do agree that could be a lot of gravy. Personally, I think that if anybody is going to be the guy who is like "im a superstar hitter, and IM gonna save ur season and all of y'all mofos need to FULL STOP the dirsrespect" - is Duran. ANthony second. Abreu third. And this is why its a good thing we didnt trade one of them.

Hes also showing signs of aging across the board though. More than Alonso and Bregman who are showing signs of aging but not as much.

Correct. Durbin is yet another average player on a team with too many average position players. Its one less place to put a superstar.

Only cuz of "sure fire" tho, his position is only unreasonable because of the extreme confidence ,but thats par for the course. He ends up hurting himself with incredible stubbornness. Like how last year he was screaming about how we were not going to make the playoffs when we were already in. But he had been making great points all year about how the team wasnt an actual competitor, but he just wouldnt fall back from "no playoffs" to "easy out in the playoffs"

The rotation will be lights out. But the lack of offense puts a ceiling on the team IMO. Caleb Durbin wasnt a dumpster dive.

Like MVP has said in the past, WAR doesnt take roster/team building into account, which you are also kind of agreeing with here. I would agree with that , but I would be shy to agree that a retrospective view of past makes theoretical performance predictions fully dismissable. If I look at Roman Anthonys projected WAR or WRC+ or OPS or RBI totals, I dont immediately dismiss them because hes never done a full season. I take them with more "gain of salt" because sophmores can slump, get hurt, and sure - the chance of superstardom from a second year player who didnt play a full rookie season would be generally lower than the chance of superstardom from an established superstar (holding many things equal for apples-to-apples comparison). To me the issue here is opportunity cost. This team looks like it has/had the potential to jump from T2 baseball team to T1, and I dont think we've done that. And I can understand being disappointed about that. Right now , this team has about a 59% of making the playoffs, and I do think thats a lot because of the expanded format. But you could argue that the expanded format leaves a lot of teams/owners complacent. Because there is nothing worse than falling out of contention early, but with so many teams making the playoffs, thats kind of hard to do. Thats also why deadlines arent what they use to be becasue there are just less sellers because its easier to make playoffs due to expanded format.

That doesnt answer the question asked

This is more penciling in than I am comfortable doing at this point in time. I think we need to expect injuries and slumps and breakouts. Every season has twists and turns. As of this very moment, Im not looking to hand away Duran because "4 OF'ers", Duran has been durable and has hit a lot of doubles and right now is probably our #3 hitter. Im not against Harper, but at this point in time, Im not willing to swap Duran for Harper.

Romys down and the WBC hasnt even started yet.

I dont know that or even think that. I think it will be rare that we have full health and most nights who is playing where will depend on who is healthy, available and not slumping and handedness of pitcher.

Trading the best LF in baseball would absolutely hurt us.

I dont think it carries 0 weight. What he is saying, is that hes sick of all the falling back to options B,C,D,E. The lineup as it is currently constructed was not plan A,B,C,D,E I personally believe that Fred (who I like) is overestimating how much financial pressures from ownership are contributing to that. But I also feel like some other posters (not you) overestimate how much the falling back is a choice , and then they applaud it. It reminds me of a deadline a couple years ago. Im a homer but I have 2 friends that are more homer than I. And one deadline a few years ago my buddy was like "Im so glad no deadline moves. Because I really like this team. Bloom like me, just really really really loves this team". Meanwhile Bloom was on TV and was like "Vegas gives us about a 25% chance to make playoffs, team aint worth short term investments" ...And Im thinking thats like the exact opposite of what my friend is telling me. Bloom is essentially saying the team is too bad to add to (in the short term). And my friend, expectedly, goes into the whole "some people shouldnt open their mouth. Why say that." And Im thinking: " You just want to be happy withy what you got, you want to lie to yourself that this team was built to win, and management is not telling you what you want to hear, and I find the statements refreshingly honest." I never had an issue with Blooms communication style. I did have issues with his (lack of) aggression and complacency to roll a mediocre roster over year over year.

Yes

Well, way to punish the guy for validating ur opinion. U can be a hard guy to even agree with.

Doubt that.

Trade our best bat, again? For prospects? Did you hear he laced a double off Crochet? Duran is once again, our best acquisition.

Sure, we dont know whats in his head. But I hope its not what some old school minded folks want it to be. It should be "no to that pitch, I cant really drive it. I think a better one is coming" "no, not that one either, I was looking for a fastball and got a change and it was a good pitch selection and I cant adjust in time , wait for the next one" Then if you find yourself 3-1 or 3-2 and you get a ball in the dirt, you TAKE your walk. Its DISAPPOINTING but the best you could have done. Unless you are a noodlebat, then you celebrate. But good hitters should not being trying to walk or even drive a pitch count up. Thats like for guys who are out there for their glove, but they are trying to contribute anything offensively. Im not saying good hitters shouldnt ever take a walk. Its like folding in poker. Sometimes you gotta do it, but its not the goal. Going up there to work a count or draw a walk or even sell out for contact (let the ball get deep, slap it oppo) is SUCH a "play to not lose" mentality. Play to win. Go up there hungry and confident. Pass on pitches because you are looking to crush one and that aint it. Not because "if I see 5 pitches, IVe done my job". Thats nerd talk.