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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    The teams that care about are the teams who can spend enough to care about it. The Oakland A’s obviously don’t give a hoot but I bet you they would if the number was more in line with their revenue. i suppose the A’s aren’t best example but you know what I mean. by the time you’re around the LT why would t it matter? If cash spent matters the gen ever dollar you spend over is taxed handsomely and unlike other payroll/bonuses/deferral’s you can’t pay that in another year. making money is #1 winning games has a pretty big effect on that too. Handcuffing your spending in future years and losing draft capital is directly effecting that
  2. Hugh2
    Home runs can really be blinding I see. we didn’t sign Alonso….give it up guys
  3. Hugh2
    No, Aaron Judge changes how you pitch to a lineup. I think guys who really get in a players mind are walk a heck of a lot more than Pete Alonso. He’s a one trick pony. He just happens to be very very good at that thing. I like Alonso, and advocated for his signing, but he’s clearly being overvalued here
  4. Hugh2
    Right, but if teams are making a lot of money I think they really care about the LT number. obviously cash payroll matters too. If you’re literally spending money you don’t have you go out of business but last I checked the Sox are making a lot more money than they’re spending on payroll. both obviously matter. But to say the LT doesn’t matters is absurd, going over the LT literally increases how much cash you spend. 1 dolllar becomes 1.2 dollars or 1.42 dollars. LT payroll matters because cash matters
  5. Hugh2
    Disclaimer before the following statement is made: Pete Alonso is better than Wilson Contreras. ok, now the point. I think people overvalue Alonso and undervalue Contreras. There’s so many ways to add value on the diamond. its entirely possible that it can both be true that one thing is more important than the rest in a vacuum AND that thing is overvalued at the same exact time. To me, that is the long ball. Alonso is elite there but not really anywhere else. Alonso is most likely going to return less than 1 War than Contreras next year, and I want to see what they do at 2nd too
  6. Hugh2
    I think it’s literally the exact opposite. Teams don’t lose draft picks because of cash payroll, it’s the LT number that dictates that. and adding deferred money to a deal lowers AAV and makes it easier for teams to get below those thresholds
  7. Hugh2
    Yup, but don't get me wrong if it's Suarez (and I don't want it to be) I'll take the homeruns and cross my fingers that his range comes back for one more year.
  8. Hugh2
    He was in the 9th percentile last year for range....It's already fallen off.
  9. Hugh2
    Exactly, and giving the time of year, the mandate, who needed a 3B/DH, and who could take on the money there was literally a very very slim market for him. I'm sure they would have gotten more had they waited to trade him, but it really feels like Henry must of said something along the lines of "I don't care I want him gone!!!!! get him outta here"
  10. Hugh2
    The absurdity of the examples not was the point.
  11. Hugh2
    No way they say no right?
  12. Hugh2
    I know that was my point. he may have bungled the Raffy situation but I think he was backed into a corner. Henry obviously wanted him off the team.
  13. Hugh2
    Isn't that a very subjective question? I mean he could of just handed Bo Bichette a blank check and made it easy? He could of just offered Tolle/Bello/Arias/Early/Witherspoon for Marte and that would be easy too. Not trying to throw shade here Red, there is a very open pathway to Bres getting lots of criticism for not plugging in that gap, but the offseason isn't over yet. ....but the clock is ticking.
  14. Hugh2
    Well I would have put it in that thread but SOMEBODY didn't start it
  15. Hugh2
    Dude IDK, then someone is just mathing wrong. Or not? Some of those deals include kickers in them if they're called up to the majors and they end up getting paid more than other guys. Guys who sign MILB deals. We could also see a few more of those before ST. It can all add up to 4-5 million pretty quickly, which is about how much those estimates all diverge by.
  16. Hugh2
    I'm not sure if they're actually paying that, I think that money still counts towards the cap. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that is his bonus being spread out for LT purposes. It was already paid.
  17. Hugh2
    I agree
  18. Hugh2
    I think there's a 50% chance the infielder we trade for is going to be a guy we aren't even talking about in here and one that few think of or even know about. I saw someone on the Soxprospects forum throw out the name Masyn Winn. I'm not saying he's the guy, or even sharing my opinion on him one way or the other. But I'm increasingly thinking that's the kind of move we see. It's going to be someone young, highly talented, who the Sox identify as someone who is ready to take off. And if they do they will look like geniuses, and if said player does not.....egg on their face. Jeremy Pena is another name I've seen thrown out there.
  19. Hugh2
    red sox payroll This site is great and I suggest it to everyone in here. You can also look at projected payrolls out into 2033 and as far back as 2012
  20. Hugh2
    Soxpayroll has the LT spend on players including $1.8 million still counting towards Devers at $234.395 million. Medical & Benefits $18.75 million Bonus and incentives $.10 million Pre-Arb bonus pool $1.67 million Minor League Costs $14 million This all adds up to $268.915 million. I generally trust Soxpayroll more than anyone else, but Cots and other sources are so close that I think it can all be explained away by the fact that certain numbers are just estimates. The $234.395 and some of the other costs are 100% predictable. But a lot of the minor league costs are just an estimate. No one can say with certainty how much they will spend on minor league costs. If players underperform and injuries pile up and minor leaguers have to be called up and start earning MLB salaries....salary goes up. I suppose this is why you're always going to get different numbers. Because people are going to project those costs differently.
  21. Hugh2
    I think we've all seen that the elite teams that win it all often do both on a very good to elite level.
  22. Hugh2
    I understand the logic on your point, but where do you get 35/50% from? even a bad defense is making 98% of the plays you should make. If you are right I think you need to recheck those numbers. Also, I think of it like this. A good hitter is on average going to get 12% of the at bats. But a good pitcher can pitch a complete game and shut down a team pitching 100% of the pitches. im open to buying to your math (adjusted) but i still believe on a good day, elite pitching beats elite hitting.
  23. Hugh2
    Wait, I didn't say pitching was more important, but you are saying hitting is more important. I disagree with that. Hitting is more exciting, it's more tangible, it's easier to relate to seeing a home run go over the fence and watch the numbers change on the scoreboard. That's why I think people think it's more important. But that is false. it is not.
  24. Hugh2
    "Only a Sith deals in absolutes" Obi-Wan Kenobi. IDK man, the Sox obviously need to improve their offense, especially after losing Bregman but they're far from a joke. They were 7th in Runs scored last year.
  25. Hugh2
    I very much disagree with this. YOu'd be finding yourself on a team losing a lot of games 8-7 with that mentality.
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