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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    Net present value can easily be higher taking more money in the future if it’s a lot more money. You’re not the only person who understands how to discount back cash flows to present day.
  2. Hugh2
    And I gave you A reason to, I didn’t say that’s what people always do or even that it was optimal. It’s just a fact. Some people take money spread out, they usually get compensated for waiting.
  3. Hugh2
    So the only reason people invest in 401k? (Lets disregard every other financial instrument) is because the employer matches? people take more money all the time to receive it in the future. It’s like saying I can give you $5 today or $10 tomorrow. you act like what I’m saying absurd or non existent but yet we live in a world where contracts are signed everyday that are backloaded and or have deferrals. So if what I’m saying is wrong why is everyone else wrong too? Riddle me that.
  4. Hugh2
    If principal is equal more often than not you’d be right with caveats but um some people like to win. lets not act like there are not contracts that are back loaded because there are. Is that not money later? What is deferred money if not money later. Why invest in a 401k are we all dumb???? It’s more enticing if those payments go up.
  5. Hugh2
    A. That’s pure conjecture, that’s fair but that’s exactly what it is. From what we know that came out of Bregmans camp it was all about job security B. Why can’t they be mutually exclusive? Would you feel better if after signing Bregman we spend zero money and didn’t sign anyone else? that seems to be very conflicting with taking issue with the team not spending the money to improve the team. And why is PDV so important here? Some players prefer the money later. Also, Suarez is younger and performed better than Bregman last year. Suarez got 130 million. What was the Sox offer to Bregman?
  6. Hugh2
    This is pure conjecture but I feel if Breslow did hand out a no trade clause, going against “club policy” he probably could have defended his position while keeping his job intact. Maybe not…idk. but I think it’s painstakingly obvious Raffy was shipped outta town because of John Henry. He wanted him off the team at all costs.
  7. Hugh2
    I thought it was fairly obvious that the defining factor Bregman was the no trade clause. Boston has a history of trading away aging stars and Bregman has been pretty adamant about wanting his next contract to be his last. He wants to sign where he’s going to end his career. Idk, maybe you don’t trust the reporting of Abraham but this is pretty consistent with what he heard out of Bregmans camp for a long time. He valued stability.
  8. Hugh2
    I’m not comparing Contreras to Alonso here. I just don’t think the offers the Sox made to Bregman and Alonso weren’t mutually exclusive. in other words, I don’t believe that the Sox offer to Alonso changes if Bregman signs before him. more often than not, the Sox place a value on a guy and they don’t budge. For better or worse. They’ve probably avoided a lot of bad contracts with that philosophy, but they’ve also missed out on a ton of premium players over the last several years. Hence the dance reference.
  9. Hugh2
    Are you seriously trying to combine my analogies and get all serious with them? Edit: I’m not trying to sound brash, I’ll play along. ok but in pro sports the prettiest girl dances with the guy who hands out the biggest contract
  10. Hugh2
    No one is saying they don’t have value. Just that they’re overvalued by some people. exhibit A. The desire to sign Eugenenio Saurez
  11. Hugh2
    And once you hit that LT your cash spent goes up exponentially. Of course cash spend is paramount but I don’t think a team with revenues as high as the Sox say “whoaaa, if we sign Pete Alonso we are going into the red” teams that do dabble around the LT we see year after year set themselves up to go under and reset. Even the Dodgers have reset.
  12. Hugh2
    I don’t think there sights set on Bregman had anything to do with it. The Sox had their number and they don’t budge, they think they’re the smartest guys in the room but more often end up being the guy without a girl to dance with.
  13. Hugh2
    Would you rather have the Sox not in on people? You know I’ve been very critical of this FO this offseason but all these teams are checking in on guys; you just read about here because this is the Sox FO. This is what happens in FA with teams and agents. Everyone is “checking in” with everyone. i get mad/excited about the final product.
  14. Hugh2
    Yup, I still say there overvalued. When a guy hits 50 home runs a year and literally nothing else he gets overvalued. id say Saurez fits that narrative better than Alonso does but Pete still ain’t no judge
  15. Hugh2
    The teams that care about are the teams who can spend enough to care about it. The Oakland A’s obviously don’t give a hoot but I bet you they would if the number was more in line with their revenue. i suppose the A’s aren’t best example but you know what I mean. by the time you’re around the LT why would t it matter? If cash spent matters the gen ever dollar you spend over is taxed handsomely and unlike other payroll/bonuses/deferral’s you can’t pay that in another year. making money is #1 winning games has a pretty big effect on that too. Handcuffing your spending in future years and losing draft capital is directly effecting that
  16. Hugh2
    Home runs can really be blinding I see. we didn’t sign Alonso….give it up guys
  17. Hugh2
    No, Aaron Judge changes how you pitch to a lineup. I think guys who really get in a players mind are walk a heck of a lot more than Pete Alonso. He’s a one trick pony. He just happens to be very very good at that thing. I like Alonso, and advocated for his signing, but he’s clearly being overvalued here
  18. Hugh2
    Right, but if teams are making a lot of money I think they really care about the LT number. obviously cash payroll matters too. If you’re literally spending money you don’t have you go out of business but last I checked the Sox are making a lot more money than they’re spending on payroll. both obviously matter. But to say the LT doesn’t matters is absurd, going over the LT literally increases how much cash you spend. 1 dolllar becomes 1.2 dollars or 1.42 dollars. LT payroll matters because cash matters
  19. Hugh2
    Disclaimer before the following statement is made: Pete Alonso is better than Wilson Contreras. ok, now the point. I think people overvalue Alonso and undervalue Contreras. There’s so many ways to add value on the diamond. its entirely possible that it can both be true that one thing is more important than the rest in a vacuum AND that thing is overvalued at the same exact time. To me, that is the long ball. Alonso is elite there but not really anywhere else. Alonso is most likely going to return less than 1 War than Contreras next year, and I want to see what they do at 2nd too
  20. Hugh2
    I think it’s literally the exact opposite. Teams don’t lose draft picks because of cash payroll, it’s the LT number that dictates that. and adding deferred money to a deal lowers AAV and makes it easier for teams to get below those thresholds
  21. Hugh2
    Yup, but don't get me wrong if it's Suarez (and I don't want it to be) I'll take the homeruns and cross my fingers that his range comes back for one more year.
  22. Hugh2
    He was in the 9th percentile last year for range....It's already fallen off.
  23. Hugh2
    Exactly, and giving the time of year, the mandate, who needed a 3B/DH, and who could take on the money there was literally a very very slim market for him. I'm sure they would have gotten more had they waited to trade him, but it really feels like Henry must of said something along the lines of "I don't care I want him gone!!!!! get him outta here"
  24. Hugh2
    The absurdity of the examples not was the point.
  25. Hugh2
    No way they say no right?
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