Hugh2

This is a good point, but I'm not exclusively talking about a negotiating window. And look, perhaps Skubal is just a pipe dream and probably is but its' the principal of it. The Sox have their own internal evaluation system and maybe there's another pitcher out there who is young and they think is going to be an elite pitcher going forward who they can sign for Crochet money. IDK who that is. But if you believe in a guy and you want to pay X dollars and they want to make Y and the gap is small......you can take the risk of aquiring them knowing that you should be able to work out a deal with them. Maybe the Red Sox think SKubal is the best pitcher on the planet and 400M is worth it, maybe 400M is the price Skubal is asking for as a starting point and would actually settle at 350. But I believe these teams know what players want, and should have a pretty damn good ideal what their odds are of signing them to an extension when trading them. I don't believe ANY player is unsignable for the right price. Obviously, some teams do this poorly and fail to sign a player. A prime example of this is the New York Yankees trading for one year of Juan Soto. There is risk, you have to be willing to assume risk but you can take calculated risks. I wonder if the Yankees knew SOtos numbers and just didn't care or if that number changed when he got to NY. I don't know. What I do know is the Sox need starting pitching.

I asked the same question, as far as I am concerned I can't recall deals being made like that. What I"m saying is these teams KNOW what a players demands are. THey have relationships with other teams and agents. They have a pretty darn good ideal what they're looking for. They should be able to tell how good a chance of extending him before they pull the trigger.

A.) Fans don't set the market B.) His demand isn't necessarily the settling point. Maybe he signs for 350

Is there any precedent for this in baseball?

It's funny you keep using NYM as an example of paying guy and exclude the LAD paying money to sign guys. The LAD just won back to back world series. Pay premium players!

No it is an answer, I definitively believe exactly what I said. Just because you don't have an extension in place when you trade a guy doesn't mean you haven't had conversations about what each side wants, or even have a framework. That's an entirely realistic situation that happens and this may be conjecture on my part but that's probably exactly what happened with Crochet. These guys all have agents, teams have relationships with these agents. They're talking.

I addressed this yesterday. There's a difference between trading and immediately extending a guy and trading for him with an ideal of what his number is and hashing out the deal once he's in your organization. E.G. Crochet.

have you noticed how s***** free agency has been in recent years? yeah we get a Ohtani and Soto, but besides a guy or two at the top the amount of impact players in free agency has dwindled down to bare bones. GUys sign extensions, and when they say they're not signing an extension but rather going to FA it's because they actually will sign an extension but they just want more money. Going to FA is their leverage. There is a vERY VERY VERY real chance someone else comes in, trades for him AND signs him. Of course, he might actually just go to FA. But I have ZERO problem giving up assets for him if we had a legit shot at extending him. That's up to JH

It will be interesting to see when the first 1 billion dollar player will be. A lot of it depends on WHEN the right guy gets to free agency. Teams are just going to spend much more on a elite 26 year old than they would an elite 30 year old. If everything is 100% equal the younger guy gets paid so much more. Using the last decade of mlb player salary inflation, IF a Juan Soto type were to reach free agency, we would get the first one billion dollar player not next offseason, but the one afterwards. So, heading into the 2028 year. That's pretty crazy to think about. 400 mil don't seem too crazy now.

Honestly I don't know but I thnk Story could be a lot better there than people are talking about right now.

What do you mean nothing is lost? they signed David Price to a record contract whiffing big time and that, I feel, has completely changed how they have approached free agency and pitchers moving forward. A lot the success they had in 2018 came from guys they already had in their system before they whiffed. There is certainly 100% ramifications if you whiff on a big free agent. Although I would argue a billionare investor shouldn't get spooked by a bad signing. If you sign big names you're going to have booms and busts.

In ten years from now, if the same salary inflation rate holds and the best player in baseball reaches free agency we would be talking about a guy signing a 1.8 billion dollar contract.

Every contract for the best player in the game is going to be insane from here on out. If we aren't willing to go a little crazy, we'll never sign the best players in baseball ever again.

I see people continously putting Mayer at 3B and Story at SS. While he scouted as having plus arm strength, his arm was weaker than both Story and Bregman last year. I'm not against Mayer at 3rd, but I am cautious over it.

And that's why I loved the Bregman signing last year, but I wouldn't want to trade away the farm for a veteran presence. And I get just trading Duran for Marte doesn't run the well dry.

If you were signing Tucker, you could trade two of your outfielders. That's a lot of chips to throw down and fill in the holes. I don't think it's very realistic at all that they sign him. If the Sox do something big this offseason, I think it's going to be on the pitching side of the equation. I think you're absolutely 100% right though, it's an upgrade in the roster not over Duran specifically.

Ketel Marte - 2nd Kyle Tucker - LF Roman Anthony - RF Trevor Story - SS Masataka Yoshida - DH Marcel Mayer - 3B Carlos Narvaez - C Lowe/Casas - 1B (forgot about 1B until now, this position is the biggest question mark in my lineup and player too) Rafaela - CF Note: I know I just Poo Poo'd trading Duran for Marte but the more I think about it the more I'm not 100% against it. I also think signing Tucker is rather unrealistic. However, this lineup could really mash and Duran/Abreu should be able to fill in the gaps on the pitching side.

I get that "Anthony" is the upgrade by the definiton of some and I don't disagree with that take but it's just an odd way of framing it. Like, the guy is already on your roster so how exactly are you "looking for". Could the Sox possibly move TWO outfielders this offseason and sign Kyle Tucker? LF Tucker CF Rafaela RF Anthony Not going to speculate further on this comment about who you get back for Duran/Abreu (or maybe it's Duran/Garcia) but packaged up with some prospects you can imagine the possibilities of plugging up 3B and SP2.

I know he's like really good and this may be an unpopular opinion but I don't really want Marte. It would sort of feel like a slap in the face to suck all these years, build up the farm, and then just trade it away for a bunch of guys 32 and up. Imagine siging Bregman and/or trading for Marte? between those two and Story they're all going to be 32 and 33 next year and the vast majority, by far, fall off a cliff between 30-35. If I'm trading for guys, and I'm using up some of my better assets.....I'm getting back younger cost controlled guys. They all can't be elite like Crochet, but that's the type of trade I'm ok with, a guy who's young and in his prime. Otherwise I'd rather just build a homegrown team like KC or go out and spend the money.

I think if you're the Red Sox, you're dangling all of Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela, and taking the best deal on the table.

That's definitionally NOT the definition of LITERAL. If I literally said that I would have said "If it's only for one year then I still make this trade" It's either definitively one year It's either definitively a trade with an extension It's a trade with knowing the ballpark figure it would take to resign him (this is what I have said). This makes an extension doable, and likely if you have the will to pay the money. But it certainly does make it certain. THat's a risk, and one I'm willing to take. Knowing the framework of an extension and with certain level of certainty and risk trading for guy is in NO WAY anagolous with "literally saying I'm ok with one year"

I literally NEVER said that.

Here's another 3 team trade I put together: 3 team trade between the Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers Red Sox get: Tarik Skubal/Josue Briceno Phillies get: Jarren Duran/Connelly Early/Noah Song (just because) Tigers get: Jesus Luzardo/Andrew Painter/Yhoiker Fajardo

If he was willing to negotiate a long term extension yes. 100% yes. That's probably more on John Henry than Skubal. BTV has this as a fair trade.

I'm not saying you have to negotiate a done deal, but players, teams and agents talk to each other. Even if they don't have a deal in place before executing a trade (which moon pointed out is rare) that doesn't mean you don't either have A. a frame work for one, or B. an ideal of what they're looking for. E.G. Maybe Skubal is looking for 400 million. which has been floated, so now you know about what it's going to take, maybe he takes a little under 400 if you're offering higher AAV....or maybe not. But you have a ballpark figure and if you're not comfortable with that you don't make the trade. I get this is fantasy, lots of moving parts, but so is pretty much everything we talk about until it happens.