Hugh2

One could argue once a player hits arbitration that it exactly fits the bill. Of course, that is not the case based on your playing time.

But Whitlock is young and controllable for years to come, he could become a staple in your rotation. He adds significantly more potential than both Wacha and Hill. Unless he’s struggling in ST, Whitlock is filling one of those slots. Assuming of course they plan on starting him.

Going into spring training I don't really think there's ever a set 5. You have a few guys you know will start and most teams have competition for the back end of the rotation. Hill/Whitlock/Wacha are all going to be competing for that 5th spot, and the way things work out you need more than 5 starters anyways. I think the Sox want Whitlock to be the guy but they're building depth. Injuries happen, guys regress, so you can never have enough pitching.

That's an easy bet to make, the odds that any singular prospect gets traded has got to be less than 50%. However, with Notins original point, the thing is he doesn't have to be traded for it to be true. Binelas can add depth to the system and another could be traded instead.

Exactly. The purpose of a the farm system is to support the major league club; support comes in the form of replenishing the ranks and trading from your depth. Bloom has really built up the farm system in Boston and put them in a position to have the ability to make trades that can immediately impact the big league club. Now will he do it? and will that come this offseason or perhaps they're more aggressive at next years deadline depending on where they are. IDK.

This is what I'm thinking, the trade looks more like buying prospects as is but it makes sense for a team that wants to compete in 2022 if they make another move in the outfield. For a team that has been making moves that makes it abundantly clear they have no plans on avoiding the luxury tax, I find it insanely hard to believe they don't plan on competing in 2022. The lock out may make us wait a long time for some clarity here but I'm anticipating more moves.

I think they give one of them a chance to start, I just don't think they are willing the assume the risk of both of them being in the rotation. My guess is Whitlock becomes a starter because of the upside he shows there.

Logic, and reason. That’s how I know.

I think you got it twisted, you keep talking like the Sox traded for JBJ, JBJ was the throw in. It was all about the prospects. They're going to sign an outfielder.

Exactly, they're paying a hefty price for a 4th oufielder, but they got something in return for it and if they replace Renfroe with a better player the 26 man is better anyways. Aren't we always complaining about the Sox not spending money? I mean I get it, people don't like the Sox spending money unless they're signing MVPs and Cy Youngs.

It does if you're signing someone like Suzuki.

It's about 2022 too if you sign someone better than Renfroe to play in the outfield.

It's not a 100% safe bet, but I think it's a pretty good and fair assumption to assume that JBJ is NOT REPLACING Renfroe in the field. That's the wrong way to look this trade. JBJ is going to get less playing time than Renfroe. The Sox effectively took on a bad contract to buy some prospects and I hope they go out and sign someone to play LF (Schwarber, Bryant, Suzuki). If they do that, the outfield and lineup is actually better next year and the farm system is stronger. I don't love this move, but I like it if it's followed with another outfield signing.

See, I told you Gilberto wouldn't be drafted.

Duran was awful everywhere last year and maybe average in LF, but his bat was also awful. I don't think he's slotted to start right now, he still has to earn it and I wouldn't pencil him into the 26 man roster next year.

It's a downgrade, but I don't think JBJ is starting, I think they sign someone else. So comparing JBJ to Renfroe without considering the other pieces is the wrong way to evaluate this trade, which you did not do but I'm just saying.

Well first off I'm not the Red Sox so I don't feel obligated to fully defend this position. But it's for only one year, a year in which they're willing to go over the cap anyways, but they're also getting prospects back in return. They effectively got a guy who was considered by some a top 15 talent in this past years draft. Also, and this is conjecture, I think it's unfair to call it a trade of Renfroe for JBJ, because those prospects have value and I don't think JBJ is replacing Renfroe as an everday player.

If you trade Verdugo and you have both JBJ and Duran in your outfield you lose what you gain defensively in JBJ with Duran and you get almost zero production from your corners. I don't think Duran starts, and I don't think JBJ does either. I think he's your 4th outfielder.

I wouldn't call it the most obvious option, it's just the option you have if you don't sign anyone else. A couple of weeks ago I could have said Connor Seabold was the obvious choice the be the 5th/swing starter but we knew they were going to sign someone. Juran Duran struggled last year, and he was probably overhyped by the prospect people. A sub .600 OPS corner outfielder with not the good defense isn't a shoe-in.

Again this trade seems to be all about Binelas and presumably getting back an MLB body in a reduced role from Renfroe to make room for a bigger bat (second part is conjecture on my part). Here is MLB's scouting report on the kid. "Binelas slammed 14 homers as a Louisville freshman in 2019, but played just two games the next year before breaking the hamate bone in his right hand. He entered 2021 as a potential top-15 pick, only to bat .155 with one homer in the first month of the season. He rebounded to hit .256/.348/.621 with 19 homers in 50 games. The Wisconsin native signed with his home-state Brewers for $700,000 as a third-rounder and handled Low-A pitching well in his pro debut before going to the Red Sox as part of the Hunter Renfroe trade in December. Binelas' best tool is his left-handed power, the product of strength and bat speed. He uses the entire field and doesn't chase many pitches out of the strike zone, yet he doesn't have a history of hitting for high averages. While he draws his share of walks, he's a streaky hitter who falls into prolonged slumps when his timing gets out of whack. It remains to be seen whether Binelas can stay in the infield. Scouts don't like his hands, footwork or funky throwing motion at third base, and he looked rough at first when Louisville moved him there in the spring. Though his speed plays as fringy in games, he recorded plus 60-yard dash times on scout day in the fall, so his best option may be left or right field. "

The prospect Alex Binelas is a very intriguing guy. Originally considered in the conversation as a first-round talent in the draft his stock fell because he got off to a horrid start. He attributed this to a lingering injury from 2020, he got hot at the end of the year and was regarded one of the top college bats in the draft. Down the stretch, he hit .314 with 18 HRs and 52 RBIs in 32 games. Played with 1st overall pick Henry Davis.

This could also be opening up a hole for Schwarber in LF. That or the Sox are going in on Suzuki. I'm going to be surprised if JBJ is a starting outfielder next year.

I'm not sure Duran even makes the team in 2022. I think the Sox would rather him get every day playing time in AAA, they may think he can compete for a starting role in LF but I think they're going to sign another bat to play LF/RF. I don't think they traded Renfroe the starter for JBJ the starter. I think they traded Renfroe the starter for JBJ the 4th outfielder + prospects with an eye on signing another outfield bat. Pure speculation on my part, perhaps even want and desire......but it would make this deal make a whole lot more sense.

Or Kike is your CF/RF with JBJ in CF/RF and Verdugo moves over to left. Better defensive alignment, larger hole in your lineup, probably not worth it.....makes more sense if the Sox go out and sign someone to start in the outfield. Maybe this means they're going to make a serious run at Suziki? or perhaps Brant to play LF? The deal makes more sense if the Sox sign another bat to start in the outfield. Which......could be a while now.

They likely sold high on Renfroe, maybe they're thinking JBJ can bounce back in that 2021 was an albatross. Remmeber, JBJ is just under contract for one more year, so again, they're throwing around money for one year so they're obviously content with going over the luxury tax limit. JBJ for Renfroe straight up seems like a bit of a head-scratcher, but they did get two prospects in return, they effectively took on a bad contract for one year for prospects. But I don't think we evaluate this as Renfroe vs. JBJ because Renfroe started for us and I think JBJ is going to come back as a 4th outfielder or a platoon guy. Now this is just speculation, but if they go out and sign a guy like Suzuki and resign Schwarber this deal makes a whole lot more sense and I like it but on the surface, it appears to be a bit of a head-scratcher. The two prospects in return were ranked 16th and 17th in Milwaukee's system. I'll reserve final judgment until I see the finished product for the 2022 season.