Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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To exemplify this point. Early in the year without Sale they were coming off a campaign of having the 4th worse record in baseball. WIthout your star pitcher, why wouldn't you wait one more year to spend on FA when the next years class is 10X as talented? Now, I love how you mentioned Schwarber, because at that point Sale was coming back and the Sox were in the playoffs.
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Because the team was horrible
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Red Sox trade Hunter Renfroe in trade involving Jackie Bradley Jr
Hugh2 replied to Jasonbay44's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's been reported that the Three teams in on him heavy are NYY, TOR, and BOS. BOS has the best fit and need for him, and his swing was made for Fenway park. Doesn't mean anything right now but I say there's plenty of reason to speculate the Sox are in on him. -
Sox paid tax in 2015 and 2016. In 2017 they stayed under. Sox went back over in 2018 and 2019. Sox got back under for 2020 and 2021. Sox have a history of getting under, resetting and going for it. They finished 2 games out from the WS last year with all the main pieces coming back and a much stronger system. If history is any precedent it's a good bet the Sox are going over this year. I could be wrong here, I just briefly viewed the figures on COTS, the team as currently constructed is about 4 million under. If we believe they want to stay under in 2022 then we are effectively saying they're done. It's such a crappy place to be because we could debate this for the entire lockout while we are in wait and see, but I would semi surprised if they do not make additional moves before the 2022 season starts.
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But they stayed under the limit last year, they're going over it this year.
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I mean, the first of that 4 year stretch he was just 23 years old, and the second sub .800 was 2020. I'm not factoring 2020 into anything really. Correa is a stud, I would love to have him on this team in his prime (if possible, that's a whole debate), even if it's just for a few years.
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Easy solution, you give him an opt out. Ok, you lose him in his prime but you get him in his prime and don't have to shell out 35+ million per year when he's in sever decline.
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I would say takin on millions of dollars of payroll for some AA prospects is pretty good indication you don't care about the luxury tax this year. Hey I could be wrong, but I actually think their moves indicate they are comfortable going over. Let also not forget (lock out be damned) the offseason is technically not over, the market is loaded with talent and the trade market exists too.
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The Red Sox have been the 3rd HIGHEST spending team the past couple DECADES. What makes you think that's going to change? The Sox go through these cycles where they reduce spending for a year or two to get things in check but they always put themselves right back at the top. Why do we think things are going to be any different now??????? WHy?
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Why blow your load when you have zero farm system and the 4th worse record in all of baseball? The FA class was pretty weak and the Sox didn't have the assets to trade. Just like a team can peak so too can an organization. I'm just saying to don't discount the possibility. The Sox have a long history of changing direction every couple years. Everytime they say they won't do a thing that other people do it's only a year or two before they do. Just like my Lester to Price example.
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As fans, we always have a biased opinion. Nothing wrong with that, but someone like Bloom may very well feel he's better off with Story at SS for the next several years. We just don't know.
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Seiya Suzuki.
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But why? to be fair, we've never seen what Bloom will do with a full checkbook, never. This is realistically year 1. ADD: I'm not expecting him to turn Boston into L.A. I'm just saying I won't be shocked if he signs a big-time contract this offseason.
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This is why I actually love opt outs. The narrative is how player-friendly opt-outs are but I disagree. If a guy is opting out it's likely because he gave you 2-3 years of great production in his prime and there's more tail end than front end on his contract that you just got yourself out of.
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There's never no chance, especially when over the last two decades the Sox have been a top 3 spending team. Everything is cyclical with the Sox, I remember one year they said they would never sign long term players again and they let Lester walk and didn't even bother to make a run at Max Scherzer, and then the very next year they go out and throw hundreds of millions of dollars at David Price. There is a long-term need up the middle for the Sox, especially if Bogaerts walks and you will never have a better free-agent class up the middle than we have this year. I will not be surprised if they end up signing one of those guys.
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To be fair, if history is any precedent, Bloom is just as likely to trade Devers for prospects before his last year of team control. Especially if Bogaerts ends up being the guy you sign an extension for, you might figure he slides over to 3B and if Casas is locking down 1B then Devers is the odd man out. I'm all for a Devers extension, but I can easily imagine a scenario where he is not resigned here. Easily.
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I don't disagree, but I'm not sold that he won't either. Bloom never had an owner with a checkbook before and his first full year here he was operating under the mandate (a presumption with strong evidence) of getting under the luxury tax limit. Those handcuffs appear to be gone at this time so we're seeing Bloom operate under circumstances we have never seen before. The Sox have been tied to both Correa and Story, they were tied to Baez too and he signed elsewhere so this could just be standard checking in and seeing. I would be shocked, but not completely surprised if the Sox sign a big-time SS this winter, if Bogaerts walk they have no obvious replacement right now and there's not much in the market next year it's all there this year.
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I think there's also a very real and good chance that JBJ is much better than he was in 2021. His career averages are much better than he was last year, and he got a late start and was battling plantar fasciitis for most of the year. I think the deal was about the prospects, but I do think the Sox also think JBJ is going to perform much better in 2022 as well.
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You could, but you do not have to. He still has plenty of team control left, probably still needs a little more time to develop, and may end up being a starter by the end of 2022. Injuries and underperformance can happen, and maybe if you believe in his bat one day you trade Verdugo instead of him. Perhaps if his defense take a step forward but the bat doesn't progress quite how you wish he replaces JBJ as a 4th outfielder. Just because you're not penciling in Duran to start in 2022 doesn't mean you trade him, but you could? sure.
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Great analysis. The biggest difference between the two may be that Correa may stick at SS going forward and if he loses a step can likely give you an above-average 3B/2B. Devers in a few years down the line may be a 1B/DH type. Devers pure hitting skills and power may last longer into his 30's while Correa either may develop more power as he ages or decline. Time will tell. If the Sox are willing to start spending heavy for a few years and Story > Correa = more players (Suzuki and an extension or two) I'd prefer Story.
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Here is my 2022 outfield. LF Verdugo CF Kike RF Suzuki 4th outfielder is defensive wizard JBJ who bounces back to have a .715 OPS.
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Again, we're comparing a market system to a specific industry, so it's literally like comparing apples and oranges.
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There's plenty of supply of baseball players, you just don't get paid unless yo'ure at the top. That's how it works in famine and feast industries. There's no shortage of people who consider themselves writers but most of them teach high school 40 hours a week. That's how it goes in the entertainment industry as well, no one buys season tickets and wears a doctor's jersey to go watch surgery.
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Professional sports is also very unique in that it's all famine or feast. You have to be in the top .01% of your profession to make money. Unlike something like....nursing, you could be in the 50% percentile as a nurse and make a living, if you're in the 50% of pro baseball I'm not even sure you make it to low A.
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This is also true, but to Harmony's point I think he would remind us that there are a lot more players signing out of the draft for 10K than there are negotiating million-dollar deals.