I think there’s a difference between excuses and a reason. There’s a reason for everything. Saying something like “The Red Sox misread the market” is fact. Perhaps it’s conjecture and not fact but it feels obvious to me. But! I do agree that if the people you hire are showing a track record of misreading the market, then start hiring people who can.
In terms of Raffy, I think it’s a hindsight reaction to say “well if they aren’t going to get a return for one year then we should have traded him longer ago”. Well, you’re only one step closer to, let’s trade everyone before they get to arbitration years. Even if a guy is determined to get to FA (and many are and may chose to never sign extensions) having 2-3 years of a premium player is worth it to an organization that is expected to compete year in and year out.
It’s like the old saying goes “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush”