Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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There might be few teams that can compete with the Red Sox when it comes to range of outcomes for the 2023 season. The Sox have a lot of talent in this team, but much of it is a combination of unproven, age and injury risk. Just think how good Sale/Paxton/Kluber will be with a clean bill of health for example? Not going to go up/down the whole 40 man but that’s a reoccurring theme on this team. I won’t be surprised if the win 90+ games next year, conversely I also won’t be surprised if they only win 75 and everything goes horribly wrong.
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Well even Zips projections have Devers with a higher OPS than his last two years. So everyone is betting on a career year from a 26 year old on the right side of his prime. The over is .900 low .900 OPS. I don’t think that’s unrealistic at all.
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SP has Jimenez at 39, he actually rose from 44 recently but that's probably mostly due to people above him being traded or graduating. I think the fluidity between 40 and 60 is a lot larger than 20 and 40. Jimenez is about 1/2 a season away from not even being ranked, unless he really takes a step forward this year.
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This is a good point, and would explain a lot.
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To be fair, it has to be hard for a guy like Law to accurately rank 30 teams prospects. How man of these kids has he actually seen? and when he does see them it's a small sample size. People like Law rely heavily on the scouting and consensus of others, others who are legit scouts and evaluators but much of it is still second-hand knowledge. Which makes it all the more perplexing that his rankings are more out of line than others. Maybe I'm just biased against Law, I don't think he's horrible at what he does but he always seems to be lower on the Sox than anyone else.
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Yes, but if you're going on athleticism there's a lot of guys that you can put above him right now. Gilberto was in everyone's top 20 a year ago, It looks more like Law is just late to the party on his drop-off.
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I know we bump heads a lot and I'm kind of a dick but this is a great point. And a team should never be free of any critique.
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I actually feel better about Law being the lowest on the Sox system after seeing his player rankings. How can he still have Jimenez in the top 20?
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German in 1 year without taking up the 40 man today.
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Yeah, but it’s everytime. He’s lower on the Sox system than everyone just about every year. That’s consistency. It will be interested to see where others rank the Sox
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I also think one can’t discount the timing of Betts extension. $365 million looked a lot more enticing during a time when there was so much certainty in the world and we didn’t even know if there would be a season.
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I agree with Notin here, otherwise we have to compare Betts to Wong/Verdugo and whatever 30.5 million gets you. Which is arbitrary, I could fudge the numbers and chose the contracts that give me negative WAR or 7 WAR. Realistically, it make sense to evaluate the trade through the lens that you traded one year of Betts, because that’s true, and whether or not LA traded for him knowing they would extend him probably doesn’t change the fact that he wasn’t signing an extension here.
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Three points about Keith Laws rankings: 1. This is one man, who hasn’t seen the vast majority of the guys he ranks, opinion. 2. A recent trend we’ve seen in baseball is how much higher value is placed on prospects in the upper minors. The Sox strength appears to be in A ball (Mayer, Bleis, Romero) 3. This is probably the most important one. Keith Law is very biased. He’s not a bad guy, I’ve heard him interviewed many times, he comes on the Soxprospects show sometimes but he is biased. He’s a lifelong New Yorker and maybe that’s a coincidence but he always has the Sox ranked lower than everyone else. It’s like clockwork. You can always count on Law to discount the Sox system compared to everyone else. It’s Laws law.
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And becomes a closer. With a name like that, lord make it happen.
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Odor gave you even platoon splits. He was a career .725-.681 hitter vs RHP/LHP the last 3 seasons Valdez has had much larger platoon splits. 2022 (.598-.388) 2021 (.926-.665) 2020 (.722-.567). Unlike Odor who is maybe a fringey starter, Valdez is a prototypical platoon player.
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I like Valdez, and I think he has an MLB future but I have two big concerns about him. His ability to hit LHP, and his defense. His defense is very subpar, and if he's a blackhole against LHP he's most definitely a platoon bat. I think he will contribute in 2023 but if the Sox are counting on him to play every day at some point for a prolonged period of time I think they are in trouble.
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In the absence of a significant injury in ST I think he absolutely does start the season in AAA
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This is the one area that even a Bloom un-fan has to give him credit for; that bottom of the roster churn. They might turn around and then say he’s allergic to making good moves at the top of a roster. They….aren’t exactly wrong here. I think we can trade German. I don’t think we get much but it will be something. I think. Who knows, maybe not.
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I mean, if you're projecting a future roster several years in the future and only include players under team control you have to pick from guys in your system. At that point in time a lot of your arbitration guys are gone, not resigned, and other contracts have expired, so of course it's going to be 19-year-old kids. The fact that the 2026 roster looks horrible. Now, Whitlock and Bello might take steps forward and maybe someone in the Cruz/Walter/Perales group pops and then that rotation might have potential. It's tough to say. But I think the futures page does a great job of outlining organizational depth and seeing area of needs. Where they look thin in the system in 2026/27 is where they should be focusing on development now. Of course, you can always rob peter to pay paul.
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Also there is this. "Disclaimer: This Future Projected Rosters page is NOT intended to reflect our actual roster projections for future years. These rosters only include players who are under team control for the respective future seasons, and do not account for trades, free agent signings, re-signings, future draft picks, or other acquisitions. These projections only include players under team control for future years (even if in some cases that control is subject to a player option). This page will be updated on a monthly basis."
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Mondesi is an exciting player, not a superstar but he will add a lot of value......for a few weeks. Jokes aside, it's a low risk high-reward gamble BUT what is your plan if he goes down? because given his history that is a massive concern.
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A small market team that doesn't plan on contending could trade for Barnes, in the hopes that he has trade value at the deadline this year. Sox would probably have to eat most of his salary.
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Hope seems like an effective strategy for this team at this point. Maybe they hope he stays healthy long enough for Story to return. If healthy, Mondesi is a great pick up for this team, even if it's only for the first half of the season. This feels like a tall task given his history, but they gave up Josh Taylor for him....so whatevs.
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Does anybody here really have any ideal what his "market" was??? The narrative that the Sox grossly overpaid for him appears to be purely conjecture. In reality, an agent would never leak that kind of information, if anything they would make it seem like other teams were out there bidding up with them. If they get the reputation of blowing smoke at GM's and grossly overstating other offers they'd lose the trust of those front offices. People can say what they want about the John Henrys and the Scott Boras of the world but there is an unspoke business language they all generally follow. From what I've heard, teams often have a general ideal of what other teams are involved in and what they are willing to spend. But no one really knows. If Yoshida is as good as they say he can be here, he would have got double in this market.
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Also, after losing a series to the Yankees, they beat them in the WC game so whatever.