harmony

On February 26 three years ago Scott Boras secured a five-year, $110 million contract for J.D. Martinez after MLB Trade Rumors had predicted Martinez with a six-year, $150 million contract. This offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted a two-year, $16 million contract for Jackie Bradley Jr., who may be in a line for a similar adjustment in expectations.

Sounding like a Seattle Mariner fan.

ZiPS projects Martin Perez with a 2021 WAR of 1.3 in 135 innings and Nick Pivetta with a 2021 WAR of 1.2 in 113.1 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=0 Off topic but related to thread: With the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning 20-year-old Julio Rodriguez drove in 21-year-old Jarred Kelenic with the winning run Sunday in the Seattle Mariners' 5-4 win over the San Diego Padres: MLB Gameday: Padres 4, Mariners 5 Final Score (02/28/2021) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Padres vs. Mariners at Peoria Stadium Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus rank Rodriguez No. 3, No. 5 and No. 3, and Kelenic No. 4, No. 4 and No. 6, on their current Top 100 prospect lists. It's only Spring Training but Seattle fans take their joys where they can find them.

Roster Resource lists the Red Sox with a five-man rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox ... with Matt Andriese, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold and Bryan Mata in the wings. The return of Chris Sale is the wild card. Perhaps Rick Porcello is coming back.

Jarren Duran with a third-inning infield single.

After Evan White signed a six-year, $24 million contract, the Seattle Mariners had the 24-year-old first baseman in the Opening Day 2020 lineup even though White had never played above Double A. The Mariners reportedly offered top prospect Jarred Kelenic an extension in the same 2019-20 offseason. Kelenic said he was told he would be on the MLB club if he signed the extension; Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto said Kelenic was offered an extension and a slot on the 40-man roster but with a minor league assignment. The Mariners have reasons other than service time to delay the MLB debut of Kelenic, a 21-year-old Top 5 prospect whose highest level has been 21 games at Double A. Seattle has no established pattern of holding back as last season four former Top 100 prospects lost prospect status with a full year of MLB service. Jarren Duran, a 24-year-old who has been shut out on most Top 100 prospect lists, has never played above Double A. The Red Sox have enough reasons to hold him back.

Three years ago today Scott Boras client J.D. Martinez signed a five-year, $110 contract with the Red Sox. MLB Trade Rumors had predicted Martinez with a six-year, $150 million contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Last year Red Sox starters posted 0.5 fWAR in 246 innings. That's a low hurdle to clear. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 FanGraphs Depth Charts project Red Sox starters with a 2021 WAR of 12.2 in 940 innings. Other starting pitching projections: Yankees: 18.0 WAR in 958 innings Blue Jays: 13.8 WAR in 936 innings Rays: 11.9 WAR in 942 innings Mariners: 12.4 WAR in 943 innings https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP

Seattle Mariner fan since 1995. Studies the Red Sox the way a native speaker studies a second language. The Red Sox had not been in the postseason in 11 seasons the year I turned 3 and soon thereafter suffered seven straight losing seasons (a dubious feat the Mariners have not accomplished in the past 30 years). Last season notwithstanding, the Red Sox have compiled better records and captured more titles than the M's over that period.

James Paxton will earn a $750,000 bonus for reaching 10 games and another $750,000 at 20 games (for a maximum of $10 million). The ZiPS projection is based on 23 starts. Paxton joins a Seattle rotation headed by fellow lefthanders Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Yusei Kikuchi, who last year combined for 4.7 fWAR in 30 starts. The projected fifth slot goes to 26-year-old righthander Chris Flexen, a refugee from the Korean Baseball Organization. Vying for the final slot in the six-man rotation will be 25-year-old righthander Justin Dunn and 24-year-old lefthander Nick Margevicius, who last year combined for a 4.39 ERA in 17 starts (although Dunn had concerning peripherals and Margevicius was less impressive in three relief appearances). The Mariners have three starters among the Top 70 prospects at Baseball Prospectus and, if disgraced former president Kevin Mather is to be believed, righthander Logan Gilbert will be called up in April. Which is more than anyone wanted to know.

A bargain is in the eye of the beholder. A $10 million annual salary might not be a bargain on Jake Odorizzi, whom ZiPS projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.8 in 24 starts. As a point of reference, ZiPS projects a 2021 WAR of 2.7 in 23 starts from James Paxton, who signed a one-year contract for $8.5 million plus incentives. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer narrow the gap in projected WAR but still give Paxton the edge.

And the teams that sign them won't be getting the bargains they had hoped. The parties will probably meet somewhere in the middle. The demand for starting pitching certainly has not diminished.

Red Sox designate for assignment righthander Marcus Walden:

According to public records, Jackie Bradley Jr. and his wife have owned a home in Naples since November 2014. That may not answer your question.

That's a long daily commute.

Clearwater, Port St. Lucie and West Palm Beach are each at least two-and-a-hours from Naples. But they're in the same time zone.

Jackie Bradley Jr., apparently posted last week from Naples, Florida, 35 miles south of Fenway South Park in Fort Myers: https://www.instagram.com/p/CLVKSHos0_z/?igshid=1v3ipfoglcb2c FWIW Bradley's agent, Scott Boras, also represents J.D. Martinez, who three years ago signed with the Red Sox on February 26. Martinez reportedly remains in contact with Bradley: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/02/jackie-bradley-jr-rumors-of-optimistic-about-signing-soon-jd-martinez-says-hes-got-a-couple-offers-and-is-waiting-for-someone-to-take-that-next-step.html

Good point (often overlooked by armchair baseball executives).

It's not too late. J.D. Martinez signed on February 26 three years ago. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml#all_transactions_other

Subpar pitching can blow a lead at any point of a game. The emotional impact on fans may be great in the ninth inning but less so for players who are likely to have empathy for the teammate who blows a save. The fan may call the offending reliever a bum but teammates are likely to provide comfort. Or not. Analytics help keep the emotions out of the bullpen strategy.

A ninth-inning lead can be blown with or without a closer.

Was it a favor to Jackie Bradley Jr. to be stuck on a team out of the race with a 12-22 record?

Just as the front office does not set the price.

In exchange for Darren Bragg ... Darren Bragg!!! ... Seattle got 145 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA over 2,093 innings from lefthander Jamie Moyer, a one-time All Star who three times finished in the top six in Cy Young voting. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml#all_transactions_other Win some, lose some.

In 26 appearances last year closer Edwin Diaz posted the lowest ERA of his MLB career: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazed04.shtml