harmony

Chaim Bloom thinks outside our tiny box.

First trade between the rival Red Sox and Yankees since the trade deadline in 2014 when the Sox dealt infielder Stephen Drew and cash to the Yanks for infielder Kelly Johnson. Only the second trade between the two clubs in the past 23 years.

Too many fans want the Red Sox to spend right up to the luxury tax threshold. The front office might want to hold back. The Sox have already spent $17 million of the reported available $30 million on Kike Hernandez and Garrett Richards. If the Sox planned to crash through the first CBT limit they probably would have set their sights higher. Or not.

Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 1.5 and 1.1 for Garrett Richards and 0.4 and 0.8 for Brad Hand. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/garrett-richards/9784/stats?position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brad-hand/9111/stats?position=P

We all hope Jameson Taillon fully recovers but in this MLB interview six years ago Dr. James Andrews stated: "Most studies have concluded that 70-80% of pitchers return to their previous level of competition following surgery assuming that they follow rehab protocols." Regarding a second surgery: "The rehabilitation takes longer and the success rate of return to pitching is not as good as with the first Tommy John surgery." MLB | Pitch Smart | FAQ | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Dr. Andrews answers frequent questions related to Tommy John surgery Perhaps the recovery rates have improved. Or not. Two months ago San Diego beat reporter Kevin Acee wrote in a piece about Mike Clevinger: "Of the 42 major league pitchers who have had two Tommy John surgeries, the majority did not pitch in the majors again after their second or fared poorly over a short period. But many of those pitchers were well into their 30s at the time of the second surgery." https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-11-17/padres-second-tommy-john-surgery-mike-clevinger-nathan-eovaldi

Alex Cobb is owed $15 million in 2021 (with an AAV of $14.25 million) while Anthony Santander is projected to earn between $1.7 million and $3 million. Are those the players the Red Sox want to approach the luxury tax threshold?

From where should your numbers be pulled?

Read up: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/background/ https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history/ https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers/ https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-minor-leaguers/ Baseball Trade Values does quantitatively what we for years have tried to do qualitatively. BTV is not the final word but it's a good place to start the discussion. Or not.

??? The automated Baseball Trade Values calculation concluded the Yankees made a "major overpay" in the trade.

Steamer and ZiPS project Jameson Taillon with 2021 WAR of 1.8 and 1.6. Extrapolated, the Yankees may get 3.5 WAR from two years of Taillon. Or not. The issue is whether the four distant prospects -- ages 18, 21, 21 and 22 -- will ever combine for more than WAR than Taillon tallies in two years. Given prospect attrition, chances are at least two or three of the prospects will never post a positive WAR. But the hypothetical threshold of 3.5 WAR is attainable if only one prospect has an MLB career of at least four years. Every transaction carries risks on each side. The Pirates spread their risk across four prospects while the Yankees concentrated their risk on two years of a 29-year-old pitcher coming off two Tommy John surgeries. Let's hope the trade meets the contrasting needs of each club.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-39110/

Did Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar's teammate on The Netherlands' World Baseball Classic team in 2017, have any influence on Profar's decision? Netherlands' roster announced for 2017 WBC WWW.MLB.COM The World Baseball Classic is just around the corner, and we now know which players will be taking the field as part of the international tournament. The rosters for the 16 competing nations were unveiled Wednesday evening on MLB Network.The Netherlands team boasts a loaded infield with five big leaguers, https://www.google.com/maps/place/Curacao/@12.169359,-69.6851845,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x8e849dca0d03000b:0x6fe4811f5861c52b!8m2!3d12.1224221!4d-68.8824233

Thank you for the clarification. Because of the present-value calculation, the deferred money reportedly reduces Chris Sale's AAV about 15 percent (from $29 million to $25.6 million). A 15 percent reduction would drop Kike Hernandez's AAV from $7 million to about $6 million.

Rick Porcello. Seriously.

The Yankees reportedly are the frontrunners for Jameson Taillon:

Nathan Eovaldi isn't far behind with a $17 million annual salary.

From the San Diego Union-Tribune's Kevin Acee: "Another source said Profar’s choices had been narrowed to the Padres and Red Sox before he made the decision to return to San Diego." https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2021-01-22/padres-jurickson-profar-free-agent

jacksonianmarch nails it.

One or two years of Christian Vazquez probably does not fit within Pittsburgh's dreamed-for competitive window. The Pirates would likely target the top prospects in a pedestrian Red Sox farm system. Too steep a price. Or not.

The deferred money should not impact the luxury tax calculation. It's the guaranteed money divided by the guaranteed years (adjusted later if options are exercised).

MLB Trade Rumors churns out trade rumors about Pittsburgh righthander Jameson Taillon, an occasional target of forum posters: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/could-jameson-taillon-be-the-next-pirates-player-on-the-block.html#respond A trade of outfielder Gilberto Jimenez and righthanders Bryan Mata and Ryan Zeferjahn for Taillon, second baseman Adam Frazier and reliever Richard Rodriguez would be perfectly balanced, according to Baseball Trade Values. Those Red Sox prospects are precisely the types the Pirates would target ... and precisely the prospects the Red Sox can ill-afford to lose as the Sox restock the farm system. On the plus side, Taillon, Frazer and Rodriguez are projected to earn only a combined $7 million this year.

Salaries rarely drop in arbitration. Andrew Benintendi will be working off his 2021 salary of $6.6 million when he enters his final year of team control in 2022. A modest salary increase to $7.4 million -- a low-end hike of about 12 percent -- would bring Benintendi up to Kiki Hernandez's two-year total of $14 million. Despite a disappointing 2020 season, outfielder Kyle Schwarber was projected to earn between $7.01 million and $9.3 million in his final arbitration season working off his 2020 salary of $7.01 million. Of course Schwarber was non-tendered and signed for one year at $10 million.

Steamer and ZiPS project Andrew Benintendi with 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 134 games and 1.5 in 135 games while projecting Kiki Hernandez with 2021 WAR of 0.8 in 89 games and 1.2 in 89 games. Hernandez is guaranteed $14 million over two years while Benintendi, with a 2021 salary of $6.6 million, is likely to equal or top that over two years unless he is non-tendered.

Too late ... the Red Sox to sign Garrett Richards: One year, $10 million with a team option for 2022:

Enrique Hernandez, who posted 3.2 fWAR and 3.3 bWAR in 2018, stroked a two-run homer off Red Sox reliever Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2018 World Series: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN201810270.shtml