harmony

Lefthander James Paxton reportedly is off the board, heading back to the Seattle Mariners: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2021/2/13/22282456/james-paxton-returns-to-seattle-mariners-on-one-year-deal

Redundant for emphasis only.

In 2018 catcher Chris Hermann posted an OPS+ of 107 in 36 games as Mike Zunino's lefthand-hitting platoon partner on the 89-win Seattle Mariners: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/herrmch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

That's the hope ... ... and expectation.

Some cliffs are steeper than others. The Red Sox may have hit bottom in 2020. Or not.

That could be an indication of Rick Porcello’s high demands rather than a lack of interest by teams. Or not.

Rick Porcello makes a ton of sense for many teams. Steamer and ZiPS project Porcello with 2021 WAR of 1.7 in 28 starts and 2.0 in 27 starts: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rick-porcello/2717/stats?position=P

The comp of James Paxton and Jake Odorizzi since the start of the 2019 season: JP 34 GS, 171.0 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.92 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 11.16 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 16-7 WL, 3.8 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR JO 34 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.58 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 9.90 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 15-8 WL, 4.2 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR Over that period the Yankees won 136 regular-season games and the Twins 137 games. Paxton is about 17 months older than Odorizzi. Steamer and ZiPS project Paxton with 2021 WAR of 2.1 in 26 starts and 2.7 in 23 starts while projecting Odorizzi with 2021 WAR of 1.7 in 28 starts and 1.8 in 24 starts.

Marwin Gonzalez has an interesting comp in Asdrubal Cabrera, who Friday reportedly signed a one-year contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks for $1.75 million plus up to $1.05 million in incentives. Both are 6-foot, 205-pound, switch-hitting Venezuelan utility players, although Cabrera has never played in the outfield. Cabrera, who is three-plus years older than Gonzalez, has posted 29.1 bWAR and an OPS+ of 106 in 1,712 career games while Gonzalez has posed 13.9 bWAR and an OPS+ of 99 in 962 career games. Steamer and ZiPS project Cabrera with 2021 WAR of 0.5 in 73 games and 0.9 in 125 games while projecting Gonzalez with 2021 WAR of 0.7 in 78 games and 0.9 in 127 games. The Red Sox signed Gonzalez to a one-year, $3 million contract with up to $1 million in incentives. Trivia: On June 30, 2006, Seattle traded 20-year-old minor leaguer Asdrubal Cabrera to the Cleveland Guardians for 36-year-old first baseman Eduardo Perez, who retired after posting a negative 0.9 bWAR in only 43 games for the Mariners that season. As a point of reference, Heathcliff Slocumb posted 0.4 bWAR for the Mariners. More trivia: The following month, on July 26, 2006, Seattle traded 24-year-old outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to the Cleveland Guardians for 29-year-old first baseman Ben Broussard, who posted a negative 0.7 bWAR in 155 games with the Mariners. Choo has since posted 35.0 bWAR in 1,638 games.:(

But probably not Chris Mazza, whom the Red Sox designated for assignment after the now 31-year-old righthander made six starts for the Sox last year:

Thank you for the correction. To be precise, Jarren Duran was the MVP of the 2020-21 Liga de Béisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente Final Series in late January (not the later Caribbean Series). Both series occurred after the FanGraphs scouting report.

From the FanGraphs scouting report posted a month ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/ Fans should hope for the best but be prepared for something less.

To be precise, Andrew Benintendi, who had a higher prospect pedigree, was 22 years and 27 days old when he made his MLB debut on August 2, 2016, in his age 21 season: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=benint000and

Seattle first baseman Evan White, who is four-and-a-half months older than Jarren Duran, can attest how tough it is to jump from Double A to MLB for an age 24 season (Gold Glove notwithstanding). Based on rankings, Duran lacks White's prospect pedigree. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whiteev01.shtml White's 2020 debut numbers rival the dismal 2006 debut numbers of Dustin Pedroia.

Steamer and ZiPS project Jarred Duran with 2021 WAR and wRC+ of 0.3 and 87 in 45 games and 0.4 and 76 in 129 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF#dashboard Last month's FanGraphs scouting report on Duran was not all that encouraging: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/ Scroll down. On a positive note, the 24-year-old Duran finally made a Top 100 prospect list last month when Keith Law tabbed him at No. 93: https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/1/28/22254173/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-keith-law-top-100-triston-casas-jeter-downs-jarren-duran

Righthander Collin McHugh, whom the Red Sox released on October 28, reportedly will sign with the Tampa Bay Rays: https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2021/02/12/rays-near-deal-with-pitcher-collin-mchugh/ McHugh of course opted out of the 2020 season.

The Red Sox reportedly sign utility player Marwin Gonzalez:

Dylan Moore's stock has risen since he committed errors on three straight ninth-inning plays, each leading to a run, in a Seattle Mariner win over the Red Sox in March 2019: Jay Bruce homer offsets Dylan Moore errors WWW.MLB.COM SEATTLE -- Pitching and defense may be the keys to winning baseball games, but it never hurts to hit the ball over the wall, as well. The Mariners showed that again Saturday as they overcame three straight errors in the ninth inning by rookie third baseman Dylan Moore to survive Seattle could also make available 25-year-old second baseman Shed Long, whom Steamer600 projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.1.

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each position player, projects Danny Mendick with a 2021 WAR of 1.1: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=4&lg=all&players=0 As points of reference, Steamer600 projects 2021 WAR of 2.0 for Enrique Hernandez, 1.2 for Christian Arroyo and 0.3 for Jonathan Arauz.

The trade undermines the credibility of Baseball Trade Values, which remains an entertaining website. According to BTV, Kansas City gave up Khalil Lee and Franchy Cordero, with a combined surplus value of $12.8 million, for Andrew Benintendi's surplus value of $4.6 million, plus $2.8 million in cash (a combined value of $7.4 million). The disparity widens because the Royals reportedly remain on the hook for two players to be named headed to Boston. The Royals likely valued Benintendi more than BTV did. The New York Mets, on the other hand, received the $9.3 million surplus value of Lee while so far surrendering only the $300,000 surplus value of Josh Winckowski. That $9 million difference could bode well for the Red Sox as the Mets could send the Sox a significant piece as the player to be named. Or not. Certainly a trade worthy of analysis.

The 2021 Marcel projections for Jake Marisnick and Kevin Pillar (who is two years older than Marisnick): JM 278 PA, .235/.298/.410/.709 KP 566 PA, .253/.296/.422/.718 Steamer and ZiPS project Marisnick with 2021 WAR of 0.3 and 0.2 in 53 games each while projecting Pillar with 2021 WAR of 0.7 in 96 games and 0.7 in 146 games.

Instead of paying Andrew Benintendi $6.6 million this year the Red Sox will save $3 million by paying Benintendi $2.8 million and Franchy Cordero $800,000.

Trivia: Franchy Cordero played 165 games at shortstop in the minors: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=corder003fra

The Mets picked up Josh Winckowski from Toronto in the Steven Matz trade on January 27.

On the flip side, the Seattle Mariners have none on the improvement leader board with Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Dylan Moore on the decline leader board. FanGraphs apparently prefers the Red Sox pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery and myocarditis.