harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
harmony replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Seattle first baseman Evan White, who is four-and-a-half months older than Jarren Duran, can attest how tough it is to jump from Double A to MLB for an age 24 season (Gold Glove notwithstanding). Based on rankings, Duran lacks White's prospect pedigree. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whiteev01.shtml White's 2020 debut numbers rival the dismal 2006 debut numbers of Dustin Pedroia. -
Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
harmony replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Steamer and ZiPS project Jarred Duran with 2021 WAR and wRC+ of 0.3 and 87 in 45 games and 0.4 and 76 in 129 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF#dashboard Last month's FanGraphs scouting report on Duran was not all that encouraging: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/ Scroll down. On a positive note, the 24-year-old Duran finally made a Top 100 prospect list last month when Keith Law tabbed him at No. 93: https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/1/28/22254173/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-keith-law-top-100-triston-casas-jeter-downs-jarren-duran -
Righthander Collin McHugh, whom the Red Sox released on October 28, reportedly will sign with the Tampa Bay Rays: https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2021/02/12/rays-near-deal-with-pitcher-collin-mchugh/ McHugh of course opted out of the 2020 season.
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The Red Sox reportedly sign utility player Marwin Gonzalez:
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Dylan Moore's stock has risen since he committed errors on three straight ninth-inning plays, each leading to a run, in a Seattle Mariner win over the Red Sox in March 2019: Jay Bruce homer offsets Dylan Moore errors WWW.MLB.COM SEATTLE -- Pitching and defense may be the keys to winning baseball games, but it never hurts to hit the ball over the wall, as well. The Mariners showed that again Saturday as they overcame three straight errors in the ninth inning by rookie third baseman Dylan Moore to survive Seattle could also make available 25-year-old second baseman Shed Long, whom Steamer600 projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.1.
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Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each position player, projects Danny Mendick with a 2021 WAR of 1.1: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=4&lg=all&players=0 As points of reference, Steamer600 projects 2021 WAR of 2.0 for Enrique Hernandez, 1.2 for Christian Arroyo and 0.3 for Jonathan Arauz.
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The trade undermines the credibility of Baseball Trade Values, which remains an entertaining website. According to BTV, Kansas City gave up Khalil Lee and Franchy Cordero, with a combined surplus value of $12.8 million, for Andrew Benintendi's surplus value of $4.6 million, plus $2.8 million in cash (a combined value of $7.4 million). The disparity widens because the Royals reportedly remain on the hook for two players to be named headed to Boston. The Royals likely valued Benintendi more than BTV did. The New York Mets, on the other hand, received the $9.3 million surplus value of Lee while so far surrendering only the $300,000 surplus value of Josh Winckowski. That $9 million difference could bode well for the Red Sox as the Mets could send the Sox a significant piece as the player to be named. Or not. Certainly a trade worthy of analysis.
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The 2021 Marcel projections for Jake Marisnick and Kevin Pillar (who is two years older than Marisnick): JM 278 PA, .235/.298/.410/.709 KP 566 PA, .253/.296/.422/.718 Steamer and ZiPS project Marisnick with 2021 WAR of 0.3 and 0.2 in 53 games each while projecting Pillar with 2021 WAR of 0.7 in 96 games and 0.7 in 146 games.
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Instead of paying Andrew Benintendi $6.6 million this year the Red Sox will save $3 million by paying Benintendi $2.8 million and Franchy Cordero $800,000.
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Trivia: Franchy Cordero played 165 games at shortstop in the minors: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=corder003fra
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The Mets picked up Josh Winckowski from Toronto in the Steven Matz trade on January 27.
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On the flip side, the Seattle Mariners have none on the improvement leader board with Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Dylan Moore on the decline leader board. FanGraphs apparently prefers the Red Sox pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery and myocarditis.
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Rick Porcello posted 1.8 fWAR in 2019. ZiPS projects 2021 WAR of 1.2 for Garrett Richards, 1.2 for Nick Pivetta and 1.3 for Martin Perez: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=0 Steamer projects 2021 WAR of 1.4 for Richards, 0.6 for Pivetta and 1.2 for Perez: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0 ZiPS projects Chris Sale (3.4) and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.0) as the only Red Sox pitchers with more than 1.2 WAR in 2021 ... and those lefthanders carry serious health risks.
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The Red Sox will fall just short of the 84 wins posted by the 2019 club that got 6.8 fWAR from Xander Bogaerts, 6.6 from Mookie Betts, 5.9 from Rafael Devers, 3.7 from Eduardo Rodriguez, 3.6 from Chris Sale, 3.5 from Christian Vazquez, 3.2 from J.D. Martinez, 2.4 from David Price, 2.0 from Andrew Benintendi and 1.4 from Jackie Bradley Jr. Or not.
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FWIW Dee Strange-Gordon once let loose a string of profanities in a physical clubhouse altercation with then-teammate Jean Segura: https://deadspin.com/mariners-brawl-with-each-other-in-locker-room-1828823082 The front office and teammates apparently sided with Strange-Gordon as Segura was traded before the end of the year.
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Will the Red Sox spend more than $3 million for an upgrade over a utility-level player?
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Wow. Nice comp. https://pressofatlanticcity.com/jake-arrieta-was-once-in-nick-pivettas-position/article_c7c15626-6194-11e9-a1ce-0743d96d4599.html
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Nick Pivetta is among several impressive acquisitions by Chaim Bloom. Trivia: Pivetta and his one-time Phillie teammate Michael Saunders went to the same high school on Vancouver Island off the coast of British Columbia.
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Someone missed the link to the encouraging note on Garrett Richards: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19906-2020-2021-Offseason-Thread?p=1368560#post1368560
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To be precise, I typically rely on Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel for an aggregate picture instead of relying on a single source.
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Steamer and ZiPS project Dee Strange-Gordon with 2021 WAR of a negative 0.4 in 48 games and a negative 0.3 in 125 games while projecting Christian Arroyo with 2021 WAR of 0.5 in 65 games annd 0.9 in 78 games. The 2021 Marcel projections for 32-year-old Strange-Gordon and 25-year-old Arroyo: DS-G 353 PA, .252/.295/.348/.643, 14 SB, 5 CS CA 279 PA, .242/.320/.411/.731, 2 SB, 1 CS Include Arroyo among Chaim Bloom's wise acquisitions. Or not.
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Dee Strange-Gordon has a reputation as a good teammate who is active in the community but the 32-year-old has posted only 0.1 fWAR in 291 games over the past three seasons. Strange-Gordon might be better-suited for a non-playing role. Or not.
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The Red Sox certainly should improve on last year's team ERA+ of 85 if the Sox can get enough innings from these six potential starters (with their 2021 age season and career ERA+): Chris Sale (32) 140, Eduardo Rodriguez (28) 113, Garrett Richards (33) 106, Nathan Eovaldi (31) 96, Martin Perez (30) 96 and Nick Pivetta (28) 79.
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Nearly 33-year-old Garrett Richards has exceeded 168.2 innings once in his career with 207.1 way back in 2015. Nearly 28-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez has exceeded 137.1 innings only once in his career with 203.1 in 2019, pre-myocarditis. Nearly 31-year-old Nathan Eovaldi has exceeded 154.1 innings only once in his career with 199.2 way back in 2014. Optimism abounds in some Red Sox corners.
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In 2020, working out of a six-man rotation until August 27, Taijuan Walker ranked 72nd among all pitchers in innings pitched, just ahead of Garrett Richards and Blake Snell, among others. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=8,d&page=3_30 FWIW this poster has never described Taijuan Walker as an innings-eater.