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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. Yes. Matt Barnes, whom ZiPS projects with 2022 and 2023 fWAR of 0.6 annually, did slightly better than a similar aged and experienced Blake Treinen, whom ZiPS projects with 2022 and 2023 fWAR of 0.8 annually: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-barnes/12863/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/blake-treinen/12572/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections Hometown biases can skew valuations. Or not.
  2. ^^^^^^^^^^^
  3. Marcelo Mayer is the highest draft pick out of Eastlake High School, Chula Vista, California, since Adrian Gonzalez went No. 1 in 2000. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/high-school-preps/story/2021-07-10/marcelo-mayer-mlb-draft-eastlake-high-chula-vista-pirates-tigers Last year the Minnesota Twins took Eastlake shortstop Keoni Cavaco with the No. 13 pick of the first round. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?key_school=ad6ab2e9&exact=1&query_type=key_school
  4. I joined this thread with a numbers-laden post in response to your first post that simply read: "Kimmi, this is a highway robbery steal." https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20141-Barnes-extended?p=1401762&highlight=robbery#post1401762 Should Matt Barnes fire his agent?
  5. Some posters offer bald opinions while others post supporting numbers.
  6. Liam Hendriks had posted 5.2 fWAR in 99 games over his two previous seasons while Matt Barnes has posted 5.2 fWAR in 362 games over his entire MLB career. Some overvalue Barnes' small-sample 37-inning turnaround from his forgettable 2020 season.
  7. The Red Sox paid full market price. Nothing wrong with that.
  8. Last offseason Liam Hendriks (3 years, $54 million) was the only reliever to sign a multiple-year contract with a higher AAV than Matt Barnes' two-year, $18.5 million contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-position__sort_direction-1 Brad Hand and Trevor Rosenthal signed one-year contracts with higher AAVs. The 31-year-old Barnes' closest comp might be righthander Blake Treinen, who was 32 years old in January when the Dodgers re-signed Treinen to a two-year, $17.5 million contract that covered Treinen's first years of free agency.
  9. Before the season FanGraphs gave the Los Angeles Angels a 39.5 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and the Red Sox a 38.9 percent chance: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2021-03-31&dateDelta= Their seasons have gone in opposite directions but the Red Sox had one of their better West Coast trips with a 3-3 record. Five of six games were decided by one run as the Red Sox were outscored 23-22. Nothing like the 12-1 shellacking the New York Yankees laid on the Mariners in Seattle last night.
  10. The Red Sox scored 18 runs, and gave up 18 runs, in the first five games of the West Coast trip. With the exception of last night's 5-3 loss, all games have been decided by one run.
  11. Seattle pitching prospect Emerson Hancock was the scheduled starter for the Everett AquaSox in all three minor league games I've attended this year. Hancock was a last-minute scratch in one contest but was solid in the other two games: https://www.milb.com/gameday/aquasox-vs-hops/2021/05/06/642739#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=642739 https://www.milb.com/gameday/aquasox-vs-canadians/2021/06/19/642688#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=642688
  12. Heading into Monday's games the Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees are fourth-place teams with identical 42-41 records.
  13. With a 9-14 record (and a -14 run differential) against AL West teams the Red Sox need to overcome their deficiencies to beat good clubs.
  14. To be fair, the Athletics outhit the Red Sox 15 to 9 and stranded 17 runners to only 8 for the Red Sox.
  15. Outside the Astros and the Red Sox, is the AL West stronger than the AL East? The "weak competition" of the AL West has a 57-48 (.543) record in head-to-head competition against the AL East.
  16. My air conditioning went out Monday when the real high temperature in Portland reached 116 degrees.
  17. With a negative 42 run differential the Seattle Mariners have a Pythagorean record of 37-45 (Pythagorean hurts the Yankees as well with a 40-40 record). The Mariners are 12-6 against the AL East. AL East teams have improved to 47-56 in head-to-head competition against the AL West (after recently being 10+ games below .500). The AL East drew the easier interleague matchup this year with a 36-19 record against the NL East while the AL West is 22-33 against the loaded NL West
  18. Halfway through the season the Seattle Mariners have a better record than the New York Yankees ... playing in a tougher division.
  19. But the Red Sox avoid the Seattle Mariners, who have won 12 of their last 16 games (including a 6-1 record against AL East teams).
  20. A Washington Post analysis of the "lucky" first-place Red Sox: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/06/24/boston-red-sox-lucky-first-place/
  21. The last three appearances by Tampa Bay reliever Peter Fairbanks were walk-off losses for the Rays: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=fairbpe01&t=p&year=2021
  22. The similarities are merely interesting. The comp of Will Middlebrooks and Mark Reynolds was lambasted by Red Sox fans who projected Middlebrooks as a perennial All Star. FWIW, the Steamer rest-of-season projections for Jake Fraley and Jarren Duran: JF 33 G, 137 PA, .227/.313/.376, 95 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR JD 27 G, 101 PA, .259/.311/.377, 86 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF
  23. Jake Fraley, the speedy lefthand-hitting outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, remains a decent comp for Jarren Duran, who is 16 months younger than Fraley. Fraley has posted 0.9 fWAR in 25 games this year. Do the math. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF Fraley and Duran were drafted out of prominent college programs and have posted these minor league numbers: JF 257 G, 1076 PA, .288/.365/.485/.850, 72 SB, 28 CS JD 229 G, 1025 PA, .317/.377/.471/.848, 76 SB, 25 CS
  24. Jake Fraley, the speedy lefthand-hitting outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, remains a decent comp for Jarren Duran, who is 16 months younger than Fraley. Fraley has posted 0.9 fWAR in 25 games this year. Do the math. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF Fraley and Duran were drafted out of prominent college programs and have posted these minor league numbers: JF 257 G, 1076 PA, .288/.365/.485/.850, 72 SB, 28 CS JD 229 G, 1025 PA, .317/.377/.471/.848, 76 SB, 25 CS
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