harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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FWIW the sample size for the AL West's 64-57 record against the AL East is larger than the sample size for the current Red Sox record of 63-44. Perhaps the smaller sample carries less significance. Or not.
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With Monday's win over the Tampa Bay Rays, the 57-50 (.533) Seattle Mariners move to 14-8 (.636) against AL East teams while AL West teams improve to 64-57 (.529) against AL East teams.
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Red Sox fans presumably are cheering the Seattle Mariners this week: MLB Gameday: Mariners 8, Rays 2 Final Score (08/02/2021) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Rays at Tropicana Field ... as the M's face the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankess on the road.
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Shouldn't a year and two months of a $100 million player command a greater trade return than distant pitching prospect Aldo Ramirez? As a free agent in January, Schwarber signed a contract that guaranteed him only $10 million for one year. Schwarber's 61-game hot streak this season has not upped the ante to $100 million.
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Eight months ago today the Chicago Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber instead of entering arbitration with his projected 2021 salary in the $7 million to $9.3 million range. Has Schwarber's value changed much after just 72 games this season?
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The Red Sox need Kyle Schwarber's bat from June of this year but not his bat from April this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=schwaky01&year=2021&t=b Schwarber's performance in this season's anticipated short stint with the Red Sox could impact the streaky player's value going forward.
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Kyle Schwarber can probably exercise the $11.5 million option for 2022. The Red Sox can then decline and pay a $3 million buyout. If Schwarber declines his end of the mutual option, the Red Sox presumably would owe nothing. Or not. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/
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Bingo!
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The Red Sox need to get past the American League favorites before worrying about the Dodgers and Padres: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/ https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
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Perhaps 30 general managers "are knocking on Porcello’s door" but the righthander's asking price is too high or his list of destinations is too short. Or not.
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The start has been delayed in Portland: https://www.milb.com/gameday/senators-vs-sea-dogs/2021/07/25/645586#game_state=preview,game_tab=,game=645586
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ZiPS projects Tanner Houck with 2022 and 2023 WAR of 0.6 annually in the righthander's age 26 and age 27 seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tanner-houck/19879/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections The 25-year-old Houck, who has never been a Top 100 prospect, has posted an ERA of 4.14 in 270 minor league innings. Through his age 25 season Rick Porcello had posted an ERA of 4.30 in 1,073 MLB innings.
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The 13 starting pitchers who posted between 3.0 and 3.9 WAR in 2019 had 198 quality starts in 411 outings for 48.2 percent: https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/player/_/view/pitching/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/pitching/sort/WARBR/dir/desc Please double-check my math. As expected a pitcher with a higher WAR generally had a higher percentage of quality starts and a pitcher with a lower WAR generally had a lower percentage of quality starts.
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188 https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/29966/rick-porcello This year the high-flying Red Sox have 25 quality starts in 97 games: https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/type/pitching/name/bos
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Last year saw Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray and Mike Minor as rentals.
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Andrew Cashner in 2019! Every deal made during 2019 Trade Deadline season WWW.MLB.COM July 31: Astros acquire RHP Zack Greinke and cash from Diamondbacks for 1B/OF Seth Beer, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP J.B. Bukauskas, and INF/OF Josh Rojas The Astros pulled off a stunning blockbuster at the Trade Deadline buzzer, scoring D-backs ace Zack Greinke for a package of four prospects in Beer
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Unless another team makes a more attractive offer.
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In two-plus years since the start of the 2019 season Joey Gallo has an OBP of .367 in 886 plate appearances while Bobby Dalbec has a career OBP of .285 in 358 plate appearances. Simply adding context to a comp raised in your post.
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It's hard to overlook Joey Gallo's .391 on-base percentage in 363 plate appearances this year versus Bobby Dalbec's .259 OBP in 266 plate appearances.
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FWIW earlier this month the Yankees won a series in Seattle, the only series loss the Mariners have suffered in their last nine series.
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And the Seattle Mariners have claimed Ryan Weber off waivers. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/mariners-claim-ryan-weber-off-waivers-from-brewers.html#comments
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Nor was the Barnes deal a "highway robbery steal" for the Red Sox.
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ZiPS, Steamer and FGDC project Matt Barnes to finish this season with 2.1, 2.3 and 2.5 fWAR, respectively: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-barnes/12863/stats?position=P#dashboard That's a good season for a reliever.