harmony

Bryan Mata reportedly has a slight UCL (ligament) tear, not a muscle tear: https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/3/6/22316872/boston-red-sox-bryan-mata-injury-ucl-tear Wishing Mata a speedy recovery.

Pointing up the limited value of a single outlier season. Be well.

Except for the stolen bases Danny Santana’s 2019 pace numbers are eerily similar to the 2019 pace numbers of Seattle catcher Tom Murphy: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphto04.shtml Perhaps an outlier as well.

The Red Sox reportedly are "in the mix" for utility player Danny Santana:

Scott Boras is always part of the issue. The market paid what the market would pay.

You could be right. Or not. Kyle Lewis could be replaced in the Seattle outfield by Top 100 prospects Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell (the latter two homered today).

Through the offseason Rafael Devers has been a more frequent topic than Bobby Dalbec. Objective responses to bias on a Red Sox forum will counter a pro-Red Sox bias more frequently than other biases. It's not practical to track down all posts that reflect objectively but here is another example: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19841-A-Realistic-View-at-2021-Part-I?p=1368757#post1368757 Be well.

In November an astute poster offered a favorable Bobby Dalbec comp to 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19841-A-Realistic-View-at-2021-Part-I?p=1360708&highlight=lewis#post1360708 Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

Only to counter the wild best-case scenarios to provide a range without adopting one projection.

To be precise, the Seattle Mariners have won three postseason series (and 15 postseason games overall): https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/ The underdog is easy to cheer for. Or not. Strange fact: Zach Davies and Ljay Newsome, the starters in Wednesday's Cactus League game between the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners, were each drafted in the 26th round with the 785th pick, Davies in 2011 and and Newsome in 2015.

Projections have Christian Arroyo with a 2021 wRC+ of around 90 (and modest WAR in fewer than half the scheduled games): https://www.fangraphs.com/players/christian-arroyo/16434/stats?position=2B/3B

At Rafael Devers' current age Pablo Sandoval had slightly better numbers than Devers to date. A wide range of outcomes awaits.

On February 26 three years ago Scott Boras secured a five-year, $110 million contract for J.D. Martinez after MLB Trade Rumors had predicted Martinez with a six-year, $150 million contract. This offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted a two-year, $16 million contract for Jackie Bradley Jr., who may be in a line for a similar adjustment in expectations.

Sounding like a Seattle Mariner fan.

ZiPS projects Martin Perez with a 2021 WAR of 1.3 in 135 innings and Nick Pivetta with a 2021 WAR of 1.2 in 113.1 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=0 Off topic but related to thread: With the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning 20-year-old Julio Rodriguez drove in 21-year-old Jarred Kelenic with the winning run Sunday in the Seattle Mariners' 5-4 win over the San Diego Padres: MLB Gameday: Padres 4, Mariners 5 Final Score (02/28/2021) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Padres vs. Mariners at Peoria Stadium Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus rank Rodriguez No. 3, No. 5 and No. 3, and Kelenic No. 4, No. 4 and No. 6, on their current Top 100 prospect lists. It's only Spring Training but Seattle fans take their joys where they can find them.

Roster Resource lists the Red Sox with a five-man rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox ... with Matt Andriese, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold and Bryan Mata in the wings. The return of Chris Sale is the wild card. Perhaps Rick Porcello is coming back.

Jarren Duran with a third-inning infield single.

After Evan White signed a six-year, $24 million contract, the Seattle Mariners had the 24-year-old first baseman in the Opening Day 2020 lineup even though White had never played above Double A. The Mariners reportedly offered top prospect Jarred Kelenic an extension in the same 2019-20 offseason. Kelenic said he was told he would be on the MLB club if he signed the extension; Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto said Kelenic was offered an extension and a slot on the 40-man roster but with a minor league assignment. The Mariners have reasons other than service time to delay the MLB debut of Kelenic, a 21-year-old Top 5 prospect whose highest level has been 21 games at Double A. Seattle has no established pattern of holding back as last season four former Top 100 prospects lost prospect status with a full year of MLB service. Jarren Duran, a 24-year-old who has been shut out on most Top 100 prospect lists, has never played above Double A. The Red Sox have enough reasons to hold him back.

Three years ago today Scott Boras client J.D. Martinez signed a five-year, $110 contract with the Red Sox. MLB Trade Rumors had predicted Martinez with a six-year, $150 million contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Last year Red Sox starters posted 0.5 fWAR in 246 innings. That's a low hurdle to clear. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 FanGraphs Depth Charts project Red Sox starters with a 2021 WAR of 12.2 in 940 innings. Other starting pitching projections: Yankees: 18.0 WAR in 958 innings Blue Jays: 13.8 WAR in 936 innings Rays: 11.9 WAR in 942 innings Mariners: 12.4 WAR in 943 innings https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP

Seattle Mariner fan since 1995. Studies the Red Sox the way a native speaker studies a second language. The Red Sox had not been in the postseason in 11 seasons the year I turned 3 and soon thereafter suffered seven straight losing seasons (a dubious feat the Mariners have not accomplished in the past 30 years). Last season notwithstanding, the Red Sox have compiled better records and captured more titles than the M's over that period.

James Paxton will earn a $750,000 bonus for reaching 10 games and another $750,000 at 20 games (for a maximum of $10 million). The ZiPS projection is based on 23 starts. Paxton joins a Seattle rotation headed by fellow lefthanders Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Yusei Kikuchi, who last year combined for 4.7 fWAR in 30 starts. The projected fifth slot goes to 26-year-old righthander Chris Flexen, a refugee from the Korean Baseball Organization. Vying for the final slot in the six-man rotation will be 25-year-old righthander Justin Dunn and 24-year-old lefthander Nick Margevicius, who last year combined for a 4.39 ERA in 17 starts (although Dunn had concerning peripherals and Margevicius was less impressive in three relief appearances). The Mariners have three starters among the Top 70 prospects at Baseball Prospectus and, if disgraced former president Kevin Mather is to be believed, righthander Logan Gilbert will be called up in April. Which is more than anyone wanted to know.

A bargain is in the eye of the beholder. A $10 million annual salary might not be a bargain on Jake Odorizzi, whom ZiPS projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.8 in 24 starts. As a point of reference, ZiPS projects a 2021 WAR of 2.7 in 23 starts from James Paxton, who signed a one-year contract for $8.5 million plus incentives. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer narrow the gap in projected WAR but still give Paxton the edge.

And the teams that sign them won't be getting the bargains they had hoped. The parties will probably meet somewhere in the middle. The demand for starting pitching certainly has not diminished.

Red Sox designate for assignment righthander Marcus Walden: