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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Three years ago today Scott Boras client J.D. Martinez signed a five-year, $110 contract with the Red Sox. MLB Trade Rumors had predicted Martinez with a six-year, $150 million contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html
  2. harmony
    Last year Red Sox starters posted 0.5 fWAR in 246 innings. That's a low hurdle to clear. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 FanGraphs Depth Charts project Red Sox starters with a 2021 WAR of 12.2 in 940 innings. Other starting pitching projections: Yankees: 18.0 WAR in 958 innings Blue Jays: 13.8 WAR in 936 innings Rays: 11.9 WAR in 942 innings Mariners: 12.4 WAR in 943 innings https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP
  3. harmony
    Seattle Mariner fan since 1995. Studies the Red Sox the way a native speaker studies a second language. The Red Sox had not been in the postseason in 11 seasons the year I turned 3 and soon thereafter suffered seven straight losing seasons (a dubious feat the Mariners have not accomplished in the past 30 years). Last season notwithstanding, the Red Sox have compiled better records and captured more titles than the M's over that period.
  4. harmony
    James Paxton will earn a $750,000 bonus for reaching 10 games and another $750,000 at 20 games (for a maximum of $10 million). The ZiPS projection is based on 23 starts. Paxton joins a Seattle rotation headed by fellow lefthanders Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Yusei Kikuchi, who last year combined for 4.7 fWAR in 30 starts. The projected fifth slot goes to 26-year-old righthander Chris Flexen, a refugee from the Korean Baseball Organization. Vying for the final slot in the six-man rotation will be 25-year-old righthander Justin Dunn and 24-year-old lefthander Nick Margevicius, who last year combined for a 4.39 ERA in 17 starts (although Dunn had concerning peripherals and Margevicius was less impressive in three relief appearances). The Mariners have three starters among the Top 70 prospects at Baseball Prospectus and, if disgraced former president Kevin Mather is to be believed, righthander Logan Gilbert will be called up in April. Which is more than anyone wanted to know.
  5. harmony
    A bargain is in the eye of the beholder. A $10 million annual salary might not be a bargain on Jake Odorizzi, whom ZiPS projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.8 in 24 starts. As a point of reference, ZiPS projects a 2021 WAR of 2.7 in 23 starts from James Paxton, who signed a one-year contract for $8.5 million plus incentives. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer narrow the gap in projected WAR but still give Paxton the edge.
  6. harmony
    And the teams that sign them won't be getting the bargains they had hoped. The parties will probably meet somewhere in the middle. The demand for starting pitching certainly has not diminished.
  7. harmony
    Red Sox designate for assignment righthander Marcus Walden:
  8. harmony
    According to public records, Jackie Bradley Jr. and his wife have owned a home in Naples since November 2014. That may not answer your question.
  9. harmony
    That's a long daily commute.
  10. harmony
    Clearwater, Port St. Lucie and West Palm Beach are each at least two-and-a-hours from Naples. But they're in the same time zone.
  11. harmony
    Jackie Bradley Jr., apparently posted last week from Naples, Florida, 35 miles south of Fenway South Park in Fort Myers: https://www.instagram.com/p/CLVKSHos0_z/?igshid=1v3ipfoglcb2c FWIW Bradley's agent, Scott Boras, also represents J.D. Martinez, who three years ago signed with the Red Sox on February 26. Martinez reportedly remains in contact with Bradley: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/02/jackie-bradley-jr-rumors-of-optimistic-about-signing-soon-jd-martinez-says-hes-got-a-couple-offers-and-is-waiting-for-someone-to-take-that-next-step.html
  12. harmony
    Good point (often overlooked by armchair baseball executives).
  13. harmony
    It's not too late. J.D. Martinez signed on February 26 three years ago. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml#all_transactions_other
  14. harmony
    Subpar pitching can blow a lead at any point of a game. The emotional impact on fans may be great in the ninth inning but less so for players who are likely to have empathy for the teammate who blows a save. The fan may call the offending reliever a bum but teammates are likely to provide comfort. Or not. Analytics help keep the emotions out of the bullpen strategy.
  15. harmony
    A ninth-inning lead can be blown with or without a closer.
  16. harmony
    Was it a favor to Jackie Bradley Jr. to be stuck on a team out of the race with a 12-22 record?
  17. harmony
    Just as the front office does not set the price.
  18. harmony
    In exchange for Darren Bragg ... Darren Bragg!!! ... Seattle got 145 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA over 2,093 innings from lefthander Jamie Moyer, a one-time All Star who three times finished in the top six in Cy Young voting. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml#all_transactions_other Win some, lose some.
  19. harmony
    In 26 appearances last year closer Edwin Diaz posted the lowest ERA of his MLB career: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazed04.shtml
  20. harmony
    We're all hoping for the best.
  21. harmony
    Perhaps 150 innings is optimistic for Eduardo Rodriguez coming off a bed-ridden season of myocarditis.
  22. harmony
    Steamer projects that Martin Perez will lead the Red Sox in inning with 161: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=9,d Other Perez projections call for fewer than 161 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/martin-perez/6902/stats?position=P https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezma02.shtml
  23. harmony
    It's disgraceful. https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2021/2/22/22294815/kevin-mather-trampled-the-seattle-mariners-seeds-of-hope-president-ceo-john-stanton-owner
  24. harmony
    Pablo Sandoval remains a reasonable comp for Rafael Devers through their age 23 seasons (although at those points Sandoval had four years of team control remaining while Devers has only three). https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml An extension carries risks and rewards because of the wide range of potential outcomes.
  25. harmony
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