harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Rick Porcello posted 1.8 fWAR in 2019. ZiPS projects 2021 WAR of 1.2 for Garrett Richards, 1.2 for Nick Pivetta and 1.3 for Martin Perez: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=0 Steamer projects 2021 WAR of 1.4 for Richards, 0.6 for Pivetta and 1.2 for Perez: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0 ZiPS projects Chris Sale (3.4) and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.0) as the only Red Sox pitchers with more than 1.2 WAR in 2021 ... and those lefthanders carry serious health risks.
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The Red Sox will fall just short of the 84 wins posted by the 2019 club that got 6.8 fWAR from Xander Bogaerts, 6.6 from Mookie Betts, 5.9 from Rafael Devers, 3.7 from Eduardo Rodriguez, 3.6 from Chris Sale, 3.5 from Christian Vazquez, 3.2 from J.D. Martinez, 2.4 from David Price, 2.0 from Andrew Benintendi and 1.4 from Jackie Bradley Jr. Or not.
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FWIW Dee Strange-Gordon once let loose a string of profanities in a physical clubhouse altercation with then-teammate Jean Segura: https://deadspin.com/mariners-brawl-with-each-other-in-locker-room-1828823082 The front office and teammates apparently sided with Strange-Gordon as Segura was traded before the end of the year.
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Will the Red Sox spend more than $3 million for an upgrade over a utility-level player?
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Wow. Nice comp. https://pressofatlanticcity.com/jake-arrieta-was-once-in-nick-pivettas-position/article_c7c15626-6194-11e9-a1ce-0743d96d4599.html
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Nick Pivetta is among several impressive acquisitions by Chaim Bloom. Trivia: Pivetta and his one-time Phillie teammate Michael Saunders went to the same high school on Vancouver Island off the coast of British Columbia.
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Someone missed the link to the encouraging note on Garrett Richards: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19906-2020-2021-Offseason-Thread?p=1368560#post1368560
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To be precise, I typically rely on Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel for an aggregate picture instead of relying on a single source.
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Steamer and ZiPS project Dee Strange-Gordon with 2021 WAR of a negative 0.4 in 48 games and a negative 0.3 in 125 games while projecting Christian Arroyo with 2021 WAR of 0.5 in 65 games annd 0.9 in 78 games. The 2021 Marcel projections for 32-year-old Strange-Gordon and 25-year-old Arroyo: DS-G 353 PA, .252/.295/.348/.643, 14 SB, 5 CS CA 279 PA, .242/.320/.411/.731, 2 SB, 1 CS Include Arroyo among Chaim Bloom's wise acquisitions. Or not.
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Dee Strange-Gordon has a reputation as a good teammate who is active in the community but the 32-year-old has posted only 0.1 fWAR in 291 games over the past three seasons. Strange-Gordon might be better-suited for a non-playing role. Or not.
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The Red Sox certainly should improve on last year's team ERA+ of 85 if the Sox can get enough innings from these six potential starters (with their 2021 age season and career ERA+): Chris Sale (32) 140, Eduardo Rodriguez (28) 113, Garrett Richards (33) 106, Nathan Eovaldi (31) 96, Martin Perez (30) 96 and Nick Pivetta (28) 79.
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Nearly 33-year-old Garrett Richards has exceeded 168.2 innings once in his career with 207.1 way back in 2015. Nearly 28-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez has exceeded 137.1 innings only once in his career with 203.1 in 2019, pre-myocarditis. Nearly 31-year-old Nathan Eovaldi has exceeded 154.1 innings only once in his career with 199.2 way back in 2014. Optimism abounds in some Red Sox corners.
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In 2020, working out of a six-man rotation until August 27, Taijuan Walker ranked 72nd among all pitchers in innings pitched, just ahead of Garrett Richards and Blake Snell, among others. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=8,d&page=3_30 FWIW this poster has never described Taijuan Walker as an innings-eater.
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Taijuan Walker had Tommy John surgery in April 2018, pitched only one inning at any level in 2019 and then posted an ERA of 2.70 in 53.1 innings in 2020. When Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2020, the lefthander was five-and-a-half years older than Walker was when the righthander had his TJ surgery. Sale's timeline will be interesting to follow.
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James Paxton and Taijuan Walker are not innings-eaters at this point of their careers, especially Paxton. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Paxton and Walker No. 22 and No. 23 on its offseason list of top free agents: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html ... predicting a one-year, $10 million contract for Paxton and a two-year, $16 million contract for Walker. Garrett Richards trailed at No. 24, Corey Kluber at No. 31 and Charlie Morton at No. 33.
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Injuries limited 32-year-old James Paxton to 20.1 innings over five starts last year while 28-year-old Taijuan Walker tossed 53.1 innings in 11 starts. Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel project Paxton with 142, 119.1 and 102 innings this year while projecting Walker with 163, 100 and 132 innings. Each former Mariner has other ties to Seattle: Paxton is from nearly British Columbia and Walker's wife is originally from the Puget Sound area. It will be interesting to see where Paxton and Walker land.
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The question was simply whether the Red Sox starters could go from dead last in 2020 fWAR across baseball to the projected fifth best in the American League. Forum members offered answers and the follow-up question was: How many starts will the Red Sox get from Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez in a 162-game season? Marcel projects those six pitchers will toss 623 innings in a 2020 season of roughly 1,458 innings. Thank you for the responses.
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Oversight. Thank you. An encouraging note on Garrett Richards: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-garrett-richards-has-elite-spin-but-his-sinker-may-hold-the-key/
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How many starts will the Red Sox get from Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez in a 162-game season (and who will start the balance)? The Sox have kept Ryan Weber, Matt Hall, Chris Mazza and Kyle Hart around for a reason.
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Has the Red Sox rotation improved that much from 2020 when the Sox starters finished dead last in fWAR? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31
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Steamer and ZiPS project Jake Odorizzi with 2021 WAR of 1.7 in 152 innings and 1.8 in 119.2 innings. Steamer and ZiPS project David Price with 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 126 innings and 1.1 in 89 innings. Odorizzi is four-and-a-half years younger than Price. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-odorizzi/6397/stats?position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/players/david-price/3184/stats?position=P
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Bold prediction: Jackie Bradley Jr. and David Price will reunite on the New York Mets. Or not. Think about the financial implications of the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes. Or not ... again.
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Jonathan Schoop reportedly has re-signed with the Detroit Tigers:
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The slightly better: https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm
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Perhaps the Red Sox can reunite with center fielder Luis Alexander Basabe, whom the San Francisco Giants have designated for assignment: Or not.