harmony

Seattle may enter the trade market early with deals that could impact the looming decisions on infielders Jorge Polanco, Luis Urias and Josh Rojas. The Mariners must decide within five days after the conclusion of the World Series whether to exercise the $12 million team option (or $750,000 buyout) on Polanco for 2025. With an approaching November deadline, Seattle must decide whether to tender contracts to Urias, with a projected 2025 salary of $5 million, and Rojas, with a projected 2025 salary of $4.3 million. The Mariners may well jettison all three, regardless whether replacements are acquired before the deadlines.

FWIW Seattle has averaged 88 wins in four straight winning seasons while the Red Sox next year may be prepared for their first winning season since 2021. Each franchise has potential.

Seattle is unlikely to trade an established starter for prospects. The Mariners, who hope to contend in 2025, will probably seek an MLB-ready or established infielder.

Seattle's starting pitching depth falls off after sixth starter Emerson Hancock, a 2020 first round pick who posted an ERA of 4.75 in 12 MLB starts this year: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners/ Taylor Dollard, the Mariners' 2022 minor league pitcher of the year, should return from Tommy John surgery while Logan Evans, their top minor league starter this season, is probably a year away. In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the M's would likely turn to the free agent market where some pitchers might take a discount to perform in the pitching-friendly environment. The Red Sox and Mariners each posted a team wRC+ of 104 this season; after August 15 the Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 and the Mariners a league-leading wRC+ of 118: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 This season the Red Sox received 20.3 fWAR from position players while the Mariners received 21.2 fWAR from position players: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0 The narrative that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariner need hitting is overblown.

Baltimore placed five players on FanGraphs’ midseason ranking of the Top 50 trade values while the Red Sox placed none: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/ In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the Mariners are likely to seek infielders who can make an immediate impact.

The vague pronoun in "They're of comparable value" was apparently misinterpreted. Sorry.

Why would the Blue Jays trade their top-of-rotation starter for a designated hitter? Even in his down 2024 season, Kevin Gausman posted twice the fWAR that Masataka Yoshida has posted in his first two MLB seasons combined.

Four years of Triston Casas is closer in value to six years of Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock than to five vears of Bryce Miller. Neither trade is likely to happen.

Google Baseball Trade Values and the player's name to produce a list of dated matches that sometimes disclose the player's BTV values.

FWIW Charlie Munger isn’t getting any older after his death last November.

Would two years of the righthanded bat of Randy Arozarena, with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million, be an attractive alternative to Tyler O'Neill? Arozarena could be due for the rebound season that Teoscar Hernandez experienced after his one season in Seattle's hitting-depressed environment. Or not. As 29-year-old outfielders, Arozarena has posted 13.1 bWAR, 12.7 fWAR and an OPS+ of 122 in 641 career games while O'Neill has posted 12.6 bWAR, 11.3 fWAR and an OPS+ of 116 in 590 games.

If the Padres advance to the World Series and face any AL opponent except the Yankees, San Diego will host Games 1 and 2 of the World Series on October 25-26 when I’m there.

Three of the remaining eight teams in the postseason will be from the AL Central. Who had that forecast? Certainly not the Minnesota Twins, the consensus preseason favorites who finished fourth in the division.

The Red Sox hope to improve on their 2024 team ERA+ of 106 and team OPS+ of 104 while the Seattle Mariners hope to improve on their 2024 team ERA+ of 106 and team OPS+ of 103 (after August 15 the M'ss led all AL clubs with a wRC+ of 118 while the Sox were near the bottom with a wRC+ of 83). The thought that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariners need hitting overlooks their significant diferences in playing environments.

Victor Robles' 2025 salary of $4.125 million won't break the Seattle bank as Robles has posted 3.0 fWAR, valued at $24.4 million, in only 89 games so far this season: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/victor-robles/18363/stats?position=OF#value

The Seattle outfield is getting expensive with the 2025 salaries of Julio Rodriguez ($19.9 million), Randy Arozarena (projected $10 million) and Victor Robles ($4.125 million) not to mention the sunken cost of Mitch Haniger ($17.5 million). Luke Raley, with an OPS+ of 126 over the past two seasons, can return at the league minimum salary. What could the Red Sox offer for two years of the righthanded bat of Randy Arozarena?

Crazy talk of a proposed Red Sox trade over at a Seattle Mariner forum: https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9645 😁😁😁

How soon is too soon to promote Roman Anthony? https://nesn.com/2024/09/how-red-sox-could-benefit-from-roman-anthony-jackson-holliday-connection/

What parallels can be drawn between Roman Anthony and Jackson Holliday, whom Anthony recently replaced as the top prospect at Baseball America? https://nesn.com/2024/09/how-red-sox-could-benefit-from-roman-anthony-jackson-holliday-connection/

In January 2012, Seattle traded righthander Michael Pineda, a 22-year-old coming off a solid rookie season, for top prospect Jesus Montero. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=monter001jes That's a trade the Mariners regret ... and a trade that shows the risk of trading a young productive starter for a top prospect.

Do the Red Sox have the trade assets to land a top-tier starting pitcher? The Red Sox had no player on FanGraphs' midseason ranking of Top 50 Trade Values: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/ Scroll down. Jarren Duran received a less-than-honorable mention while Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela were listed among "Youth": https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-introduction-and-honorable-mentions/ Values may have fluctuated since the July 26 rankings but attrition limits the current value of prospects. Seattle was represented on the Top 50 list by Julio Rodriguez (No. 5), George Kirby (No. 22) and Logan Gilbert (No. 23). Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo earned honorable mentions while Luis Castillo was mentioned as a good pitcher on a good contract. Cal Raleigh was "squeezed out" of the main rankings, according to the FanGraphs article. The Red Sox and Mariners might not match up in a trade.

The up-and-coming Detroit Tigers are unlikely to trade two years of lefthander Tarik Skubal, their Cy Young candidate who earned only $2.65 million this season.

Since August 15 the Red Sox rank 27th with a wRC+ of 80: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Up until that point the Sox had ranked eighth with a wRC+ of 110: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-03-01&enddate=2024-08-14&sortcol=17&sortdir=default The Seattle Mariners experienced a nearly opposite flip. Baseball is often difficult to figure out.

Seattle would be happy to keep those five starters as well. The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 102 and team ERA+ of 105 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 105 and team ERA+ of 106. It's not as if Mariners or Red Sox are bottom-feeders by either measure. Perhaps the Mariners should adjust their ballpark to help hitters (while necessarily hurting pitchers). Free agent hitters almost always refuse to sign with Seattle. Since Jerry Dipoto's arrival nine years ago the largest guaranteed free agent contracts to hitters went to Mitch Garver (two years, $24 million last offseason), AJ Pollock (one year, $7 million the previous offseason) and Nori Aoki (one year, $5.5 million for 2016). Free agent pitchers apparently find Seattle more attractive as Dipoto has negotiated more than $200 million in free agents contracts for pitchers, topped by the five-year, $115 million deal for Robbie Ray. The Mariners are in a tough spot ... as are many MLB clubs.

FWIW this season the Red Sox have a team ERA+ of 105 and the Mariners have a team ERA+ of 105. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024.shtml Environmental factors enhance the traditional numbers of Seattle pitchers and detract from the traditional numbers of Seattle hitters.