harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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The Red Sox hope to improve on their 2024 team ERA+ of 106 and team OPS+ of 104 while the Seattle Mariners hope to improve on their 2024 team ERA+ of 106 and team OPS+ of 103 (after August 15 the M'ss led all AL clubs with a wRC+ of 118 while the Sox were near the bottom with a wRC+ of 83). The thought that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariners need hitting overlooks their significant diferences in playing environments.
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Victor Robles' 2025 salary of $4.125 million won't break the Seattle bank as Robles has posted 3.0 fWAR, valued at $24.4 million, in only 89 games so far this season: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/victor-robles/18363/stats?position=OF#value
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The Seattle outfield is getting expensive with the 2025 salaries of Julio Rodriguez ($19.9 million), Randy Arozarena (projected $10 million) and Victor Robles ($4.125 million) not to mention the sunken cost of Mitch Haniger ($17.5 million). Luke Raley, with an OPS+ of 126 over the past two seasons, can return at the league minimum salary. What could the Red Sox offer for two years of the righthanded bat of Randy Arozarena?
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Crazy talk of a proposed Red Sox trade over at a Seattle Mariner forum: https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9645 😁😁😁
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How soon is too soon to promote Roman Anthony? https://nesn.com/2024/09/how-red-sox-could-benefit-from-roman-anthony-jackson-holliday-connection/
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What parallels can be drawn between Roman Anthony and Jackson Holliday, whom Anthony recently replaced as the top prospect at Baseball America? https://nesn.com/2024/09/how-red-sox-could-benefit-from-roman-anthony-jackson-holliday-connection/
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In January 2012, Seattle traded righthander Michael Pineda, a 22-year-old coming off a solid rookie season, for top prospect Jesus Montero. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=monter001jes That's a trade the Mariners regret ... and a trade that shows the risk of trading a young productive starter for a top prospect.
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Do the Red Sox have the trade assets to land a top-tier starting pitcher? The Red Sox had no player on FanGraphs' midseason ranking of Top 50 Trade Values: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/ Scroll down. Jarren Duran received a less-than-honorable mention while Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela were listed among "Youth": https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-introduction-and-honorable-mentions/ Values may have fluctuated since the July 26 rankings but attrition limits the current value of prospects. Seattle was represented on the Top 50 list by Julio Rodriguez (No. 5), George Kirby (No. 22) and Logan Gilbert (No. 23). Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo earned honorable mentions while Luis Castillo was mentioned as a good pitcher on a good contract. Cal Raleigh was "squeezed out" of the main rankings, according to the FanGraphs article. The Red Sox and Mariners might not match up in a trade.
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The up-and-coming Detroit Tigers are unlikely to trade two years of lefthander Tarik Skubal, their Cy Young candidate who earned only $2.65 million this season.
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Since August 15 the Red Sox rank 27th with a wRC+ of 80: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Up until that point the Sox had ranked eighth with a wRC+ of 110: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-03-01&enddate=2024-08-14&sortcol=17&sortdir=default The Seattle Mariners experienced a nearly opposite flip. Baseball is often difficult to figure out.
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Seattle would be happy to keep those five starters as well. The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 102 and team ERA+ of 105 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 105 and team ERA+ of 106. It's not as if Mariners or Red Sox are bottom-feeders by either measure. Perhaps the Mariners should adjust their ballpark to help hitters (while necessarily hurting pitchers). Free agent hitters almost always refuse to sign with Seattle. Since Jerry Dipoto's arrival nine years ago the largest guaranteed free agent contracts to hitters went to Mitch Garver (two years, $24 million last offseason), AJ Pollock (one year, $7 million the previous offseason) and Nori Aoki (one year, $5.5 million for 2016). Free agent pitchers apparently find Seattle more attractive as Dipoto has negotiated more than $200 million in free agents contracts for pitchers, topped by the five-year, $115 million deal for Robbie Ray. The Mariners are in a tough spot ... as are many MLB clubs.
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FWIW this season the Red Sox have a team ERA+ of 105 and the Mariners have a team ERA+ of 105. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024.shtml Environmental factors enhance the traditional numbers of Seattle pitchers and detract from the traditional numbers of Seattle hitters.
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Article: Fenway Park: The Greatest Place on Earth
harmony replied to Dan Fraser's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
Every baseball fan should make a single visit to Fenway Park. A second visit may not be necessary; many other stadiums provide the season ticket holder a better ongoing experience. -
As it stands now, the Mariners are counting on Victor Robles to be no worse than a fourth outfielder behind Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Luke Raley. Seattle hopes to improve on this year's wRC+ of 101, which trails, among others, the 105 wRC+ posted by the Red Sox.
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FWIW since August 15 the Mariners lead all American League clubs with a wRC+ of 116: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 The Seattle front office presumably is investigating the team's now perennial slow starts. Climate may be a factor ... or not.
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Some folks questioned whether Jarren Duran could sustain his .381 BABIP from last year.
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Victor Robles may end up the weakside platoon with Luke Raley in the Seattle outfield. This year Robles has posted 2.9 fWAR in 67 games with the Mariners (and 3.3 fWAR in 117 games over the past two seasons). This year Wilyer Abreu has posted 3.0 fWAR in 120 games with the Red Sox (and 3.6 fWAR in 148 games over the past two seasons). The 2024 OPS+ with the Mariners for Seattle's projected returning outfielders: Julio Rodriguez 108, Randy Arozarena 127, Victor Robles 158 and Luke Raley 129. Wilyer Abreu has a 2024 OPS+ of 120. One thing that will never change: Victor Robles is younger than late-bloomer Jarren Duran.
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This year Wyatt Langford has played 85 innings in center field but 821.1 innings total in the outfield. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/langfwy01.shtml In his MLB career Wilyer Abreu has played 87.1 innings in centerfield, but only two innings this season.
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Where would Wilyer Abreu fit in a Texas outfield that is likely to return Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter? How did Garcia's fWAR fall from 4.6 in 2023 to a negative 0.5 this year? Would the Rangers seek pitching in any trade of Josh Smith?
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The Mariners replaced Kyle Seager with Eugenio Suarez, who posted 4.3 and 3.5 fWAR in his two seasons in Seattle before his trade to Arizona (where Suarez has posted 3.7 fWAR this year). Wilyer Abreu and Victor Robles probably share uncertain projections.
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Next year Seattle may return an outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley. As Mitch Haniger has been a starting outfielder in only five of Seattle's last 29 games, the Mariners are unlikely to be counting on Haniger next season. The M's might even attach a prospect or two (and cash) to move Haniger in a trade.
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As others on this forum have noted, Baseball Trade Values likely undervalues Luis Castillo. The comparison is three years of a 31-year-old established starting pitcher and three years of a 31-year-old position player who should be limited to designated hitter duties. So far this year Luis Castillo has posted 2.4 fWAR after posting 3.3 fWAR last year. So far this year Masataka Yoshida has posted 1.0 fWAR after posting 0.6 fWAR last year. Before this season the ZiPS three-year projections had Castillo with 3.9, 3.4 and 2.9 WAR and Yoshida with 2.1,, 1.7 and 1.3. Bloated contract aside, Seattle would probable prefer to fill the DH slot with Mitch Garver, with a career OPS+ of 116, including 111 over the past two seasons, over Yoshida, with an OPS+ of 113 over his two MLB seasons. After his horrendous start this year Garver has shown signs of life in limited September action.
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The Mariners are unlikely to have interest in the three years remaining on Masataka Yoshida’s contract (even if the Red Sox took back the single seasons left on the contracts of Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver).
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Two weeks of the new Talk Sox, thoughts?
harmony replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
This outside opinion was simply trying to pay Brock Beauchamp a compliment.🙄 -
Two weeks of the new Talk Sox, thoughts?
harmony replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
This "outside" opinion is that the new format has lifted a decent website to a higher level. Fans of all teams would be fortunate to have a site that follows the Twins Daily model.
