harmony

What need do the Mariners have for a nearly 32-year-old infielder owed $77.5 million after posting 0.9 fWAR over the past two seasons?

This year the Diamondbacks paid Joc Pederson, a lefthand-hitting DH only, $12.5 million to put up 3.0 fWAR, about twice what Masataka Yoshida has posted in his first two MLB seasons. Arizona is unlikely to pay more for less production.

Would three years of Trevor Story at $75 million land the Opening Day starter for a loaded Seattle rotation? That trade has about the same chance of happening as a trade of one year of the righthanded bat of Mitch Haniger at $15.5 million for Triston Casas. Nil.

Jarren Duran's impressive age 27 season in 2024 is reminiscent of Jacoby Ellsbury's age 27 season in 2011 and Darin Erstad's age 26 season in 2000. Neither Ellsbury nor Erstad was able to replicate his outstanding season. Duran's single breakout season won't be enough to land Logan Gilbert or George Kirby, who have established themselves for at least three seasons. Seattle may need hitters, but perhaps not as much as the Red Sox need hitters. This year the Mariners and Sox each posted a team wRC+ of 104 although after August 15 Seattle registered a league-leading wRC+ of 118 while the Sox slumped to 83. The Seattle resurgence was fueled by the additions of Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles, a pair who will likely flank Julio Rodriguez in the outfield next year. Duran would not fill the Mariners' greater needs in the infield. The Red Sox might be wise to trade high on Duran but fans should temper their expectations on the return.

Why would the Giants trade a bonafide ace* in Logan Webb for a package headlined by an unproven prospect or a designated hitter who has underperformed his contract? * in 66 starts over the past two seasons Webb ranks second in fWAR among all pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&ind=0&postseason=&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2023&season=2024

Is Baseball Trade Values too sensitive to small recent samples for relievers?

Some attribute the success of the Seattle pitching staff to the receiving skills of catcher Cal Raleigh.

To be precise: The narrative that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariner need hitting is overblown. The context was lost in your cherry-picked response.

One mystery is how the Red Sox wRC+ went from 111 on August 14 to 83 the remainder of the season to finish at 104: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Does that trend hold any significance going forward or is the late-season sample too small to be meaningful?

All else being even, an established starter is worth more than a designated hitter. The Giants need the high upside of Robbie Ray more than they need the annual sub-1.0 WAR of Masataka Yoshida.

This season 31-year-old Michael Conforto posted 1.3 fWAR in 130 games while 31-year-old Masataka Yoshida has posted 1.4 fWAR in 248 games over his two-year MLB career. The San Francisco Giants are unlikely to trade Robbie Ray and their former closer for a downgrade from Conforto.

Last offseason the trades of Robbie Ray, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales, and the trades for Jorge Polanco, Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, were all surprising.

Seattle may enter the trade market early with deals that could impact the looming decisions on infielders Jorge Polanco, Luis Urias and Josh Rojas. The Mariners must decide within five days after the conclusion of the World Series whether to exercise the $12 million team option (or $750,000 buyout) on Polanco for 2025. With an approaching November deadline, Seattle must decide whether to tender contracts to Urias, with a projected 2025 salary of $5 million, and Rojas, with a projected 2025 salary of $4.3 million. The Mariners may well jettison all three, regardless whether replacements are acquired before the deadlines.

FWIW Seattle has averaged 88 wins in four straight winning seasons while the Red Sox next year may be prepared for their first winning season since 2021. Each franchise has potential.

Seattle is unlikely to trade an established starter for prospects. The Mariners, who hope to contend in 2025, will probably seek an MLB-ready or established infielder.

Seattle's starting pitching depth falls off after sixth starter Emerson Hancock, a 2020 first round pick who posted an ERA of 4.75 in 12 MLB starts this year: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners/ Taylor Dollard, the Mariners' 2022 minor league pitcher of the year, should return from Tommy John surgery while Logan Evans, their top minor league starter this season, is probably a year away. In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the M's would likely turn to the free agent market where some pitchers might take a discount to perform in the pitching-friendly environment. The Red Sox and Mariners each posted a team wRC+ of 104 this season; after August 15 the Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 and the Mariners a league-leading wRC+ of 118: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 This season the Red Sox received 20.3 fWAR from position players while the Mariners received 21.2 fWAR from position players: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0 The narrative that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariner need hitting is overblown.

Baltimore placed five players on FanGraphs’ midseason ranking of the Top 50 trade values while the Red Sox placed none: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/ In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the Mariners are likely to seek infielders who can make an immediate impact.

The vague pronoun in "They're of comparable value" was apparently misinterpreted. Sorry.

Why would the Blue Jays trade their top-of-rotation starter for a designated hitter? Even in his down 2024 season, Kevin Gausman posted twice the fWAR that Masataka Yoshida has posted in his first two MLB seasons combined.

Four years of Triston Casas is closer in value to six years of Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock than to five vears of Bryce Miller. Neither trade is likely to happen.

Google Baseball Trade Values and the player's name to produce a list of dated matches that sometimes disclose the player's BTV values.

FWIW Charlie Munger isn’t getting any older after his death last November.

Would two years of the righthanded bat of Randy Arozarena, with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million, be an attractive alternative to Tyler O'Neill? Arozarena could be due for the rebound season that Teoscar Hernandez experienced after his one season in Seattle's hitting-depressed environment. Or not. As 29-year-old outfielders, Arozarena has posted 13.1 bWAR, 12.7 fWAR and an OPS+ of 122 in 641 career games while O'Neill has posted 12.6 bWAR, 11.3 fWAR and an OPS+ of 116 in 590 games.

If the Padres advance to the World Series and face any AL opponent except the Yankees, San Diego will host Games 1 and 2 of the World Series on October 25-26 when I’m there.

Three of the remaining eight teams in the postseason will be from the AL Central. Who had that forecast? Certainly not the Minnesota Twins, the consensus preseason favorites who finished fourth in the division.