harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Article: Fenway Park: The Greatest Place on Earth
harmony replied to Dan Fraser's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
Every baseball fan should make a single visit to Fenway Park. A second visit may not be necessary; many other stadiums provide the season ticket holder a better ongoing experience. -
As it stands now, the Mariners are counting on Victor Robles to be no worse than a fourth outfielder behind Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Luke Raley. Seattle hopes to improve on this year's wRC+ of 101, which trails, among others, the 105 wRC+ posted by the Red Sox.
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FWIW since August 15 the Mariners lead all American League clubs with a wRC+ of 116: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 The Seattle front office presumably is investigating the team's now perennial slow starts. Climate may be a factor ... or not.
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Some folks questioned whether Jarren Duran could sustain his .381 BABIP from last year.
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Victor Robles may end up the weakside platoon with Luke Raley in the Seattle outfield. This year Robles has posted 2.9 fWAR in 67 games with the Mariners (and 3.3 fWAR in 117 games over the past two seasons). This year Wilyer Abreu has posted 3.0 fWAR in 120 games with the Red Sox (and 3.6 fWAR in 148 games over the past two seasons). The 2024 OPS+ with the Mariners for Seattle's projected returning outfielders: Julio Rodriguez 108, Randy Arozarena 127, Victor Robles 158 and Luke Raley 129. Wilyer Abreu has a 2024 OPS+ of 120. One thing that will never change: Victor Robles is younger than late-bloomer Jarren Duran.
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This year Wyatt Langford has played 85 innings in center field but 821.1 innings total in the outfield. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/langfwy01.shtml In his MLB career Wilyer Abreu has played 87.1 innings in centerfield, but only two innings this season.
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Where would Wilyer Abreu fit in a Texas outfield that is likely to return Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter? How did Garcia's fWAR fall from 4.6 in 2023 to a negative 0.5 this year? Would the Rangers seek pitching in any trade of Josh Smith?
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The Mariners replaced Kyle Seager with Eugenio Suarez, who posted 4.3 and 3.5 fWAR in his two seasons in Seattle before his trade to Arizona (where Suarez has posted 3.7 fWAR this year). Wilyer Abreu and Victor Robles probably share uncertain projections.
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Next year Seattle may return an outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley. As Mitch Haniger has been a starting outfielder in only five of Seattle's last 29 games, the Mariners are unlikely to be counting on Haniger next season. The M's might even attach a prospect or two (and cash) to move Haniger in a trade.
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As others on this forum have noted, Baseball Trade Values likely undervalues Luis Castillo. The comparison is three years of a 31-year-old established starting pitcher and three years of a 31-year-old position player who should be limited to designated hitter duties. So far this year Luis Castillo has posted 2.4 fWAR after posting 3.3 fWAR last year. So far this year Masataka Yoshida has posted 1.0 fWAR after posting 0.6 fWAR last year. Before this season the ZiPS three-year projections had Castillo with 3.9, 3.4 and 2.9 WAR and Yoshida with 2.1,, 1.7 and 1.3. Bloated contract aside, Seattle would probable prefer to fill the DH slot with Mitch Garver, with a career OPS+ of 116, including 111 over the past two seasons, over Yoshida, with an OPS+ of 113 over his two MLB seasons. After his horrendous start this year Garver has shown signs of life in limited September action.
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The Mariners are unlikely to have interest in the three years remaining on Masataka Yoshida’s contract (even if the Red Sox took back the single seasons left on the contracts of Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver).
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Two weeks of the new Talk Sox, thoughts?
harmony replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
This outside opinion was simply trying to pay Brock Beauchamp a compliment.🙄 -
Two weeks of the new Talk Sox, thoughts?
harmony replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
This "outside" opinion is that the new format has lifted a decent website to a higher level. Fans of all teams would be fortunate to have a site that follows the Twins Daily model. -
notin had the most enticing proposal: Boston gets: Bryce Miller (55.4) Texas gets: Wilyer Abreu (29.7) Seattle gets: Triston Casas(27.9), 3b Josh Smith (23.9) 🙂🙂🙂
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Seattle might be willing to take a low-cost flyer on Vaughn Grissom the way the Mariners took a flyer on Luis Urias, whom the Red Sox virtually gave away last offseason. Of course, Urias can be distinguished from Grissom because Urias was a non-tender candidate. What kind of return could the Red Sox get in a trade of Grissom? Over the past two seasons Luis Castillo and Mitch Garver have combined for 7.4 fWAR while Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom have combined for 0.1 fWAR.
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FWIW over the past two seasons Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom have combined for 0.1 fWAR in 283 games. That package won't command a handsome return in trade.
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The Mariners might be interested in an MLB-experienced stopgap infielder who would not cost as much as Marcelo Mayer in a trade.
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Vaughn Grissom could be the final piece in a trade for Seattle pitching. Or not.😁
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Would the Red Sox consider trading Vaughn Grissom? Asking for a friend.😉
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The Mariners are likely to take their chances on infield prospects Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Felnin Celesten and Michael Arroyo rather than trading valuable assets for Marcelo Mayer.
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The Mariners are likely to return an outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.
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The Mariners probably need a third baseman more than another outfielder with the likely 2025 returns of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley. Before this season ZiPS gave Wilyer Abreu and Brett Baty similar three-year WAR projections: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wilyer-abreu/23772/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brett-baty/26123/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections Baty is five months younger than Abreu but may have one fewer year of team control depending on his service time calculation. Going back to Baseball Trade Values in late 2023, the trade values of Abreu and Baty were nearly flipped from their current values. The BTV site is highly volatile.
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After this season Masataka Yoshida has $55.8 million remaining on his contract while Mitch Garver has $13.5 million remaining on his contract. The Mariners are unlikely to take on that much more money in hopes that Yoshida improves on his 1.4 fWAR so far in 234 games over his first two MLB seasons. Even crazier: Boston sends to Seattle: Three years of Masataka Yoshida at $55.8 million Four years of Triston Casas Seattle sends to Boston: Five years of Bryce Miller (including four likely arbitration seasons) One year of Mitch Garver at $13.5 million One year of Mitch Haniger at $15.5 million Boston sends to New York Mets: Five years of Wilyer Abreu New York Mets send to Seattle: Four or five years of Brett Baty (depending on service time calculation) The Red Sox save money in the long run and likely get one more year of team control from Bryce Miller than from Triston Casas Enough of this silliness.😁
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Indeed poorly written. Thank you for the response.
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Jarren Duran's age 27 season in 2024 is reminiscent of Jacoby Ellsbury's age 27 season in 2011 and Darin Erstad's age 26 season in 2000. The three outfielders who bat and throw lefthanded never repeated those fine seasons.
