harmony

Last year Julio Rodriguez may have suffered the age 23 curse of elite Dominican hitters. In his age 23 season, Rodriguez posted a 3.8 fWAR after posting a 5.8 fWAR the previous year. In his age 23 season in 2022, Juan Soto posted a 3.7 fWAR after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year. In his age 23 season in 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted a 3.3 fWAR after posting a 6.3 fWAR the previous year. Fernando Tatis Jr, missed his age 23 season after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year. Tatis saw his fWAR drop to 4.1 in his age 24 season. No need to panic over Julio Rodriguez.

FanGraphs currently projects the Red Sox eighth in the American League in overall 2025 WAR, including second in the league in pitching WAR and 14th in position player WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

St. Louis fans react to the prospect of a Nolan Arenado trade to Boston: https://interact.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=12918692#p12918692

The Fenway Faithful podcast discusses Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman and Triston Casas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vMT4nPC-Kc

In his podcast, Justin Verlander's brother picks the Red Sox to win the American League East in 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkXM9FlNwnk

The Red Sox have addressed many pitching needs but have neglected their needs for position players. With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in projected pitching WAR but 14th in projected position player WAR, ahead of only the White Sox: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

The Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 after August 15 last year.

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

The Los Angeles Angels signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year contract through the left-hander's age 36 season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/angels-to-sign-yusei-kikuchi.html

??? Yusei Kikuchi turns 34 years old next June: https://www.mlb.com/player/yusei-kikuchi-579328

The Red Sox placed 13th in a recent farm system ranking at Bleacher Report: https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10148856-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-the-2024-25-offseason.amp.html

The problem for the Mariners probably isn't so much the 2025 budget but the payrolls for 2026 and beyond. That's why Masastaka Yoshida's contract through 2027 is undesirable. The Seattle farm system had the good fortune of graduating Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bruce Miller and Bryan Woo within the short span of a few years. The downside now is that their salaries will escalate through arbitration (and through Julio's long-term extension). Even in his down 2023 season, Luis Castillo's 2.3 fWAR easily surpassed the 1.4 fWAR Yoshida posted in his first two MLB seasons. Steamer projects Castillo with a 2025 WAR of 2.8 in 31 starts and Yoshida with a 2025 WAR of 1.2 in 123 games. Mitch Garver is a bounceback candidate to platoon with Luke Raley at DH (or with Randy Arozarena flipping from the outfield to DH according to the matchups). That assumes the Mariners land a first baseman from a dwindling market. Yandy Diaz or Ryan Mountcastle are possibilities; Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson would be disappointing consolations.

What is the trade value of Triston Casas? One value comp might be Tampa first baseman Yandy Diaz, who is included in this featured hypothetical trade at Baseball Trade Values: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/181711 BTV assigns a surplus value of $29.9 million to four years of Casas and a surplus value of $23.4 million to Diaz, who is owed $10 million in 2025 with a 2026 club option for $12 million (no buyout). Steamer projects a 25-year-old Casas with a 2025 WAR of 2.4 in 146 games and a 33-year-old Diaz with a 2025 WAR of 3.6 in 150 games. The BTV hypothetical would send Diaz and six years of infielder Curtis Means to Seattle for a four=player package of a 20-year-old Top 50 prospect and three first-round draft picks (two disappointing and one in the 2025 draft). The Red Sox are in a win-now mode without the fiscal constraints of the Rays, but would the Sox trade Casas and, say, five years of infielder Vaughn Grissom for the Seattle package? The aggregate BTV numbers match up. Speaking of matching up ... Baseball Trade Values assigns Boston righthander Lucas Giolito and Seattle outfielder/DH Mitch Haniger identical negative trade values of $15.5 million. Would the Red Sox be interested in Haniger's righthanded bat, perhaps as a platoon partner with Wilyer Abreu? Would the Mariners want Giolito as depth behind their touted five-man starting rotation? Haniger has one year and $15.5 million remaining on his contract, according to Spotrac. Giolito is owed $19 million in 2025 with a 2026 mutual option for $14 million ($1.5 million buyout) if he pitches 140 innings in 2025. Giolito's contract also includes incentives for innings pitched each year. Haniger's contract includes a $1 million assignment bonus that is typically picked up by the trading team, in this case the Mariners. The frugal Seattle front office might be unwilling to take on Giolito's 2025 salary and 2026 buyout on top of the assignment bonus. Steamer projects Haniger with a 2025 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 105 games and Giolito with a 2025 WAR of 1.0 in 29 games, including 15 starts. Someone has too much time on his hands this holiday season.😃

May you find peace and a return to your unbridled enthusiasm for the Red Sox. Merry Christmas!

Would anyone prefer Nick Pivetta at $19 million* over Walker Buehler at $21.05 million plus incentives? * plus the loss of a compensatory draft pick at the end of the second round if Pivetta signed elsewhere

That was mentioned in this hour-long podcast that speculates about possible trades between the Red Sox and Seattle Mariners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH9GM0upOx8

On Friday USA Today ranked the Red Sox farm system fourth in MLB: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/12/20/2024-mlb-farm-system-rankings/77076639007/

We should not be unduly influenced by minuscule samples, but Kutter Crawford tossed five shutout innings in each of this poster's last two Red Sox games at T-Mobile Park in Seattle: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202206120.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA202308020.shtml Kutter Crawford has value.

Steamer ranks Luis Castillo 38th among all pitchers in projected 2025 WAR with 2.8, a fraction ahead of Tanner Houck: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer ZiPS is more bullish on Castillo with a projected 2025 WAR of 3.3. A trade of Castillo would not be a salary dump. The veteran righthander may well open the 2025 season in the Seattle rotation.

On the issue of transparency, we all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the valuations of detailed system: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/notes-on-our-valuations ... and the bald, opaque opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.

The site's founder addresses BTV's offseason updates: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/notes-on-our-valuations

Events and circumstances can impact the stock market -- and any market -- on a day-to-day basis. That's what we see every year in the MLB offseason. Baseball Trade Values is not perfect but the site regularly reviews its projections: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history Each MLB front office presumably reviews its projections.

Red Sox pitchers might say the same about Connor Wong.

Perhaps Ken Rosenthal's article that places the Red Sox trade in a positive light should not have been shared on this forum. FWIW the comparison that has not withstood the test of time involved Jarren Duran and Taylor Trammell, who is currently listed as the starting right fielder for the reigning AL West champion Houston Astros: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros